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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 17:00

England

v

Malta

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		1/66	28	100	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN ENGLAND	RECENT FORM
HWNDNWNDNLAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	ALHDALALADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Malta have conceded more than three goals just once in 11 competitive games

EXPERT VERDICT: England left it late to secure a well-deserved 1-0 victory away to Slovakia in their opening World Cup qualifier but should be more comfortable at home to Malta in Gareth Southgate’s first match in the Three Lions hotseat. Sam Allardyce’s dismissal came out of the blue but is unlikely to damage the team’s prospects in the short term.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 3-0
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[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 19:45

Scotland

v

Lithuania

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		9/20	10/3	17/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLAND	RECENT FORM
AWAWHWALALAW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 3 - 1 1 - 0 3 - 0	ALALHWALADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Germany and England are the only teams Scotland have lost to at home in the last three years

EXPERT VERDICT: Gordon Strachan’s side were aided by Malta having to play the final half an hour with ten men but the 5-1 success was merited and they should have another comfortable night against Lithuania, who can hardly be described as a member of Europe’s elite. They have won just two of their last 17 matches and Scotland should be able to keep a clean sheet against one of the poorest attacks on the continent.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland to win 2-0
1

 

[superbeets]

World Cup Su 9Oct 17:00

Wales

v

Georgia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		—	—	—	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN WALES	RECENT FORM
NWNWNWNLHWAD​ Most recent​	1 - 2	HDNLALAWHLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Georgia have reached half-time at 0-0 in each of their last five competitive away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Georgia were very competitive in Thursday’s 1-0 loss at Ireland, earning a 57 per cent share of possession and narrowly losing the shot count 8-7. However, they have a losing habit in qualifiers (11 of their last 14 have ended in defeat) and may eventually succumb to Wales, who are off to a strong start with four points from two games.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Wales double result
1

 

[superbeets]

World Cup Su 9Oct 19:45

Moldova

v

Ireland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		11/2	3	1/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN MOLDOVA	RECENT FORM
ADNWALALALHL​ Most recent​	Unknown	NLNWALHWADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Moldova have lost ten of their last 12 qualifiers

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland had to work hard for their 1-0 win over Georgia but should find it easier against Moldova, who look by far the weakest team in Group D. Dropped points would be a major blow for the Irish but they should be in cruise control against the Moldovans, who have lost their opening two games by an aggregate 7-0 score.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

Last week’s CFL action started out with Edmonton’s 40-26 victory against Winnipeg as a three-point road favorite to improve its playoff position in the West Division.

In the first of two Saturday games, Calgary extended its straight-up winning streak to 11 games with a 36-17 win on the road against Hamilton as a 2 ½-point favorite.

Later that day, British Columbia outpaced Ottawa 40-33 as a five-point favorite at home to move into second place in the West.

Sunday’s lone contest was a stunning 38-11 Montreal victory over Toronto as a three-point home favorite to snap a SU four-game losing streak.

Saturday, Oct. 8

British Columbia Lions (9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -1 ½
Total: 55 ½

Game Overview

The Lions have won five of seven road games this season SU and they are 6-1 ATS on the road. Jonathan Jennings’s 348 yards passing against Ottawa last week raised his season total to 3,656 yards, which is the third-most in the CFL. He also tossed three touchdowns to move into third place on that list as well with 18 scoring strikes on the year. Anthony Allen paced the running game last week with 82 yards on 12 carries.

Winnipeg’s impressive seven-game SU winning streak has now turned into a two-game skid with back-to-back losses to Calgary on the road and to Edmonton at home. The total went OVER in both of those games and it has now gone OVER in six of the Blue Bombers’ last seven games. The defense has now allowed an average of 35 points in their last three games after giving up just 104 total points in the first six games of that winning streak.

Betting Trends

This will be the first meeting this season and Winnipeg comes in with the SU 3-2 edge in the last five games while going 3-1-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in this West Division clash.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 16 CFL

British Columbia (9-4) @ Winnipeg (8-6)— Blue Bombers swept BC 23-15 (+3), 29-26 (+6) LY, after losing seven of previous eight games vs Lions, who won three of last four visits here. BC is 5-2 on road, with losses by 4-3 points; they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Four of their last six games stayed under the total; under is 17-6 in last 23 series games. Winnipeg allowed 76 points in losing its last two games that followed a 7-game win streak. Bombers are 3-4 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- six of their last seven games went over the total.


Week 16 CFL games

— Underdogs*32-25-1, home teams 24-35-2 vs spread…….Over:*28-30-3

— Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Ottawa RedBlacks (-6.5, 53)
— British Columbia Lions @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1.5, 55)
— Edmonton Eskimos (-3, 51.5) @ Montreal Alouettes
— Calgary Stampeders (-9, 53) @ Toronto Argonauts

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: A key all-Florida ACC battle highlights Week 6
By PATRICK EVERSON

As October dawns, the top-ranked college football team in the nation is the one that finished on top last season. We talk about the opening lines for Week 6 with John Lester, senior lines manager.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (+14)

The Crimson Tide haven’t lost in more than a year now, and they’ve had only one close call this season, erasing a huge Mississippi lead for a 48-43 Week 3 win as 10-point home chalk. This past weekend, Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) dropped Kentucky 34-6, but failed to cash as a massive 37-point favorite.

Arkansas (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) rebounded from a blowout loss at Texas A&M by beating up FCS foe Alcorn State 52-10 as a monster 50.5-point home fave.

“Per usual, we are taking a ton of Alabama action each week, so we can’t be light on the spread,” Lester said. “That defense will look to make Arkansas even more one-dimensional than it already is.”

The Razorbacks have cashed the last two in this rivalry, though they lost both SU: 14-13 catching 9 points at home in 2014 and 27-14 getting 15 on the road last year.

No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (-5)

Yet another SEC clash, this time among a couple of unbeatens, though Tennessee just barely fits that mold. The Volunteers (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) needed a Hail Mary touchdown pass as time expired to top Georgia 34-31 Saturday as a 3.5-point road favorite.

Meanwhile, the Aggies (5-0 SU) had run the table ATS this season until Saturday, when they beat South Carolina 24-13 but fell short at the betting window as 19.5-point road chalk.

“The Aggies were hammered by bettors last week, and more of the same could happen here,” Lester said. “At the end of the day, they are positioned more than a few slots higher than Tennessee in our power ratings.”

No. 21 Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (-2)

Florida State is struggling, while cross-state rival Miami is definitely trending up as this ACC rivalry resumes. The Seminoles (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) went off as 10.5-point home faves Saturday against North Carolina, but fell behind 21-0 and had their rally ultimately fall short, losing 37-35 on a last-second Tar Heels field goal.

The Hurricanes (4-0 SU and ATS) are coming off a 35-21 road victory over Georgia Tech laying 7.5 points. Miami is aiming to stop Florida State’s six-game win streak in this series (3-3 ATS), including the ‘Noles 29-24 home win last year as 6.5-point faves.

“It feels like a classic toss-up for this big rivalry,” Lester said. “The bottom line is that the Seminoles aren’t as bad as they’ve looked at times, and the Hurricanes aren’t as good as they’ve appeared. We’re expecting some sharp money on the underdog.”

No. 6 Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks (+8)

The Huskies (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) appear to be the real deal, not only in the Pac-12, but possibly in the race for a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff.

Washington boatraced then-No. 7 Stanford 44-7 laying 3.5 points at home Friday night.

On the flip side, the Ducks are quacking up, having lost their last three in a row. On Saturday, they went to Washington State as 2.5-point favorites and got drubbed 51-33.

“This is a very efficient and disciplined Washington team that is reminiscent of the contending teams Coach Chris Peterson fielded back at Boise State,” Lester said. “The Ducks didn’t respond in a must-win situation last week, and you have to wonder about their mentality and motivation. This program isn’t accustomed to losing.”

That said, the Ducks have owned this Pac-12 rivalry, going 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams

2016 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-2 0-2 2-2-1 1-4
Clemson 5-0 2-0 3-2 1-4
Duke 2-3 0-2 2-3 1-4
Florida State 3-2 0-2 2-2 3-1
Georgia Tech 3-2 1-2 1-2-1 1-2-1
Louisville 4-1 2-1 3-1-1 5-0
Miami (Fla.) 4-0 1-0 4-0 3-1
North Carolina 4-1 2-0 3-2 3-2
North Carolina State 3-1 1-0 3-1 3-0-1
Pittsburgh 3-2 0-1 1-4 4-1
Syracuse 2-3 0-1 2-3 2-3
Virginia 2-3 1-0 3-1-1 1-3-1
Virginia Tech 3-1 1-0 2-2 3-1
Wake Forest 4-1 1-1 2-3 3-2


Clemson at Boston College (Fri. - ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Tigers won their emotional showdown against the Cardinals of Louisville last weekend, now face a short week of preparation and a road trip to Chestnut Hill. Will there be a bit of a hangover following a huge victory? Will the Tigers just show up and expect to win? Head coach Dabo Swinney will do everything in his power to keep that from happening, but Clemson has struggled on offense at times this season and Boston College has a stout defense. Still, Clemson is 5-1 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record, 6-2 ATS in the past eight overall dating back to last season, but just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road outings. Boston College has struggled to protect its home turf, though, going 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight home games, while managing a poor 0-4-1 ATS mark in the past five ACC tilts, including a 49-0 blowout loss at Virginia Tech in their last conference game.

Notre Dame at North Carolina State (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
All eyes will be on the tropics, as Hurricane Matthew is menacing the Southeast United States this week, and will be threatening the Tar Heel state Saturday. The possibility exists that kickoff could be moved, or even the venue could be changed. Notre Dame righted the ship somewhat last weekend in E. Rutherford, N.J., powering past Syracuse 50-33. The Irish haven't been able to post a streak against the number lately, going 0-4 ATS in their past four following a cover. They are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning overall record, however. N.C. State is equally inept at following up covers with more covers, going 1-5 ATS in their past six after a straight up win, and 1-4 ATS in their past five following a cover. The 'over' could be the play here, as it is 4-0 in the past four road games for Notre Dame, 6-1 in their past seven overall and 6-2 in their past eight road outings against a team with a winning home mark. For N.C. State, the over is 6-0-1 in their past seven overall, 5-0-1 in their past six at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh and 4-1 in their past five following a straight up victory. The total has been bet down from an opening line of 67 1/2 to 63 1/2 as of Wednesday morning, with the Wolfpack short 'dogs at home.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Yellow Jackets and Panthers needn't worry about the weather, but bettors need to worry about each team's struggles against the spread. Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight dating back to last season, 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 ACC games and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. Pitt is 5-16 ATS in its past 21 home games, 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a winning road mark. Something's gotta give. Pitt is favored by a touchdown in this one. Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the pass, but that's not a strong suit of Ga. Tech. The 'under' is 6-2-1 in the past nine overall for the Yellow Jackets, and 5-2 in their past seven on the road as well as inside the conference. The 'over' is 4-0 for Pitt in the past four, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall record.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Hokies and Tar Heels are another game potentially bothered by the affects of Hurricane Matthew. If the game does go off as scheduled, there could be plenty of wind and rain which could tamp down the offensive production for both sides. The total opened at 62 and has slipped to 59 as of Wednesday morning. The Tar Heels are coming off an impressive road win at Florida State, Dave Doeren's first signature win at the helm in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are now 9-3 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning record, and they're 21-6 ATS in their past 27 games at Kenan against a team with a winning road mark. The Hokies were blazed by Tennessee earlier in the season, but they have been good lately. They're 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, and also 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Chapel Hill. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, with the 'under' hitting in eight of the past nine meetings.

Army at Duke (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
Yet another game which might be impacted by Hurricane Matthew, Army and Duke are tentatively set to battle at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. Duke has been as unpredictable as the weather lately, losing at home to Wake Forest, winning the biggest game in program history at Notre Dame and then coming home to lay an egg against lowly Virginia. The Black Knights have had two weeks to stew after losing a heartbreaker at Buffalo, their first setback after a 3-0 SU/ATS start. These sides met last season in West Point with Duke rolling to a 44-3 win, but this Blue Devils team isn't as prolific and Army is much improved. Duke enters favored by four points. Army is just 8-22-1 ATS in the past 31 on the road, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against ACC foes. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their past seven at Wallace Wade, and 0-5 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall record.

Syracuse at Wake Forest (ACC Network, 7:00 p.m.)
The Orange might wish they were at home under the comfort of their dome and away from the elements, as the weather in Winston-Salem could be breezy and damp. While the Triad is well away from the coast, plenty of rain could push inland to impact this game. As we've seen in the other North Carolina games, the total has been bet down from 57 1/2 to 54 1/2. The over is 6-1 in Syracuse's past seven road games, 5-1 in their past six ACC games and 12-5 in their past 17 games overall. It's the opposite for Wake, as the under is 13-6-1 in their past 20 home games, 21-10 in their past 31 conference tilts and 22-8-2 in their past 32 against teams with a losing overall record.

Florida State at Miami-Florida (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The marquee game of the ACC weekend takes place in Miami, and as long as there isn't any storm damage or travel issues. FSU enters the game 0-2 in the conference for the first time since 2011. The Seminoles are looking to avoid an 0-3 conference start for the first time ever in ACC play, and will likely look on Miami-native Dalvin Cook to run early and often. This is Miami's biggest test, as arguably their biggest challenges have been road outings at Appalachian State and Georgia Tech, not exactly the cream of the crop. FSU is still 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home reocrd. Miami has covered all four of their games. However, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Miami, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The underdog has also cashed in 14 of the past 17 in this Sunshine State rivalry, with the 'under' 7-2-1 in the past 10 in Miami, and 5-0 in the past five overall.

Bye Week
Louisville, Virginia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams

2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 5-0 2-0 1-4 1-4
Iowa State 1-4 0-2 3-2 3-2
Kansas 1-3 0-1 1-3 1-3
Kansas State 2-2 0-1 2-2 1-3
Oklahoma 2-2 1-0 1-3 3-1
Oklahoma State 3-2 1-1 3-2 3-2
Texas 2-2 0-1 2-2 3-1
Texas Christian 3-2 1-1 1-4 4-1
Texas Tech 3-1 1-0 3-1 2-2
West Virginia 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2


Texas Christian at Kansas (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Neither of these teams have been very good against the number, and generally the Jayhawks haven't been very good on the scoreboard, either. TCU lost a shootout to Oklahoma last weekend, and they have allowed 31.4 points per game (PPG) through five outings, including 41 or more points in three of their games. TCU is averaging 43.4 PPG, and they'll be able to move the ball against a Kansas team which has given up at least 37 points in each of the past three outings. TCU is 1-4 ATS in the past five overal, while Kansas is 17-35-1 ATS in the past 53 against teams with a winning overall record. The Jayhawks are also 1-5 ATS in their past six overall and 1-6 ATS in the past seven in the Big 12. However, for whatever reason, Kansas gives TCU fits. They're a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past four meetings in this series, and the underdog has covered five straight.

Texas vs. Oklahoma from Dallas (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)
The Red River rivalry has lost some of its luster with both combatants entering with 2-2 records and no shot at a playoff spot. Still, this should be a hotly contested game, as neither side wants a third loss before the leaves have fully turned. Texas enters this game 5-2 ATS in their past seven neutral-site games, while Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in their past eight inside the conference, including last weekend's shootout at TCU. However, the Sooners are 0-5 ATS in the past five neutral-site games. The Longhorns have dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings. That includes years when Oklahoma has had a much more superior team. This season Texas has closed the gap considerably.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Iowa State played their hearts out against Baylor last weekend, losing a 45-42 heartbreaker but cover a 17-point number. The Cyclones have covered three in a row, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts. Despite the cover last weekend I-State is just 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning overall record, and they're 1-4 SU overall. Oklahoma State lost a controversial game at home to Central Michigan earlier in the season, but have wins in two home games against Pitt and Texas since then. They enter as a 17-point favorite as they look for their fifth straight cover in Stillwater against the Cyclones. OK State is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall, while the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 and the home team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The over is 5-1 in Iowa State's past six conference tilts, while the over is 9-3 in OK State's past 12 overall and 7-1 inside the Big 12.

Texas Tech at Kansas State (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Texas Tech heads to Manhattan looking to keep their high-powered offense on track. The Red Raiders have scored at least 55 points in each of their past four outings, leading the nation in total yards and passing yards. They're also No. 1 in points scored with 59.5 PPG. However, QB Patrick Mahomes II (shoulder) is questionable for the game, so that will be a big determining factor if they can win on the road and cover. K-State is 21-8-1 ATS in their past 30 against teams with a winning overall record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record. The over has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, with the favorite 6-2 ATS in the past eight. K-State has covered four of the past five meetings in this series. They enter as a touchdown favorite in this one.

Teams on a bye
Baylor, West Virginia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps are watching these Week 6 college football games very closely
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

Georgia Tech (+7) at Pittsburgh

The Yellow Jackets opened +8 and have already been bet down to the key number of +7 with some sportsbooks already going down to +6.5. Georgia Tech is taking a step down in class after two losses versus Clemson and Miami Florida. The Yellow Jackets actually held a 361-355 total yard edge last week, including a 267-114 rushing advantage, but suffered from a 3-0 turnover deficit.

Pittsburgh is just 1-3-1 ATS this year and they do not the luxury of a bye week to prepare for the triple-option. The road team is also 2-0 SU/ATS in this head-to-head series the past two years. The Panthers won 31-28 at Georgia Tech last year as a 3-point underdog, but they lost at home 56-28 as a 4-point favorite in 2014. Georgia Tech has held 376-200 and 465-198 rushing edges in those past two games.

Spread to wait on:

Oregon (+8.5) vs. Washington

Oregon opened +8 in most locations and the early money has already pushed this line higher. The public will likely back the road favorite as well, so wait and try to get the key number of +10 or more later this week. Washington looked very strong last Friday night in their 44-6 national TV win versus Stanford, but that victory has now inflated this line and set up a possible letdown spot for the Huskies.

Oregon is down a notch this season and stands just 2-3 SU. However, this line has been drastically over-adjusted based on recent results. In fact, the look-ahead betting line this summer was Oregon -2. These teams played at Oregon two years ago and the Ducks were a 21-point home favorite in a 45-20 win. Oregon's main weakness this season has been a poor rush defense, but the strength of Washington is their passing offense.

Total to watch:

Oklahoma at Texas (74)

This total opened 72 and was quickly bet two points higher. It is understandable as both offenses have been explosive this season, while both defenses have been very suspect. Oklahoma has averaged 39.5 points and 493 total yards per game, but the Sooners have also allowed 35.2 points and 429 total yards per game. Oklahoma's four games have averaged 74.7 total points while going 3-1 Over this season.

Texas has scored at least 41 points or more in three of their four games this year, averaging 41.2 points and 517 total yards per game. However, the Longhorns have also allowed at least 47 points or more in three of their four games, permitting 38.2 points and 428 total yards per game on average. Overall, the Longhorns four games have averaged 79.4 total points while going 3-1 Over this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 1-3 0-1 2-2 1-3
Indiana 3-1 1-0 2-2 1-3
Iowa 3-2 1-1 1-4 2-3
Maryland 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-3
Michigan 4-0 1-0 3-1 4-0
Michigan State 2-2 0-2 1-3 1-3
Minnesota 3-1 0-1 1-2-1 2-2
Nebraska 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Northwestern 2-3 1-1 2-3 1-4
Ohio State 4-0 1-0 4-0 2-2
Penn State 3-2 1-1 1-3-1 5-0
Purdue 2-2 0-1 1-3 3-1
Rutgers 2-3 0-2 2-3 3-2
Wisconsin 4-1 1-1 4-1 1-4


Conference Games

Maryland (-1) at Penn State - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Penn State – The Nits picked up a huge win in OT last week coming from behind to top Minnesota 29-26. At halftime it looked like PSU was in big trouble down 10 and having put up only a FG in the first half. They went into the locker room averaging just 5.1 YPP and passing for just 95 yards. That pretty much played to the script of PSU all season as they have been outscored 92-54 in the 1st half this year. In the 2nd half the Lions erupted for 26 points, 295 yards passing, and over 9.0 YPP. PSU was 2-2 coming into the game and last week was pretty much dubbed a must win for a once proud program trying to turn the corner. The reaction of the players after the win speaks volumes. "That’s the best our locker room has ever been," said kicker Tyler Davis, a smiling redshirt junior. "That was awesome. I think that could really be a turning point to our season." Now sitting at 3-2 vs a tough schedule thus far (Kent, Pitt, Temple, Michigan, and Minnesota) the Nittany Lions have a chance to keep the momentum going with 2 more home games the next 2 Saturdays. Despite being above .500, PSU is getting outgained by an average of almost 40 YPG. Much of that, however, we due to their game at Michigan where they were outgained by well over 300 yards. Most of their other games were fairly even yardage wise. This week they played an undefeated Maryland team and this line has swung from Penn State -1 to Maryland -1 or -1.5 as of this writing on Wednesday.

Maryland – The Terps are 4-0 on the season but how good this team is has yet to be seen. In fact, none of their wins have come against a team ranked higher 63rd (Sagarin Ratings) with victories over FIU, UCF, Howard, and Purdue. That being said, last week’s win vs the Boilers was an impressive one. They put up 50 points, outrushed Purdue 400 yards to just 10 yards, and scored on 7 of their 12 drives (not including the drives that ended in a turnover). The Terps have now outgained 3 of their 4 opponents, UCF being the only exception, by a combined total of 564 yards. One huge reason for Maryland’s improvement is QB play. Interceptions thrown to be exact. This season the Terps have thrown only 1 interception making them one of eleven teams in the nation that has thrown one or fewer picks. Last year this team threw a whopping 29 interceptions which was the most in the nation by a full 6 picks. On top of not turning the ball over, QB Perry Hills has increased his completion percentage by 11% from last year and increased his yards per attempt by 2 full yards. We’ll quickly find out if Maryland is for real as their schedule now gets significantly more difficult. After Penn State, this team plays Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska in the upcoming weeks.

Last Year – If history is an indicator, we can expect a close game between these two. Last year PSU traveled to Maryland and squeaked out a 31-30 win despite getting outgained by 100 yards. The Terps turned the ball over 5 times in that game. The previous season Maryland won at Penn State by a final score of 20-19.

Inside the Numbers – If this number stays where it is, it will be the first time that Maryland has been favored in a conference game on the road since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Since 2005, PSU has been a home underdog just 11 times covering only 3 of those games. The Nittany Lions have dominated this series going 12-1-1 SU (5-8-1 ATS) since 1980.

Iowa (-2) at Minnesota – (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Minnesota – The Gophs are off OT road loss at PSU 29-26. The yardage was almost dead even but Minnesota ran a whopping 90 offensive plays to just 70 for Penn State. That was their first loss of the year after running up a 3-0 mark in the non-conference season (Oregon State, Indiana State, and Colorado State). Minnesota will “possibly” receive a boost this week as head coach Tracy Claeys has reinstated 4 suspended players including Hardin and Buford, two of the Gophs top corners. However, Claeys has said he’s not sure the players will play this Saturday. They could especially use Harding and Buford as injuries mount in the defensive backfield. On the other side of the ball, Minny welcomed back starting RB Shannon Brooks from injury two weeks ago vs Colorado State. He has given the offense a boost rushing for 185 yards on just 27 carries in his two games. That could be a problem for the Iowa defense that has given up 183 YPG on the ground after allowing just 121 YPG last season. One thing Minnesota does have to clean up is their penalty situation. They lead the Big Ten in penalty yardage at 76 YPG. That was after committing only 45 YPG in penalties last year and just 46 the year before.

Iowa – The Hawks continued their struggles by losing at home last Saturday to Northwestern. The Cats won the game 38-31 topping 30 points for first time since last September – a span of 15 games. It was also the first time the Iowa defense allowed more than 35 points in a regular season game since the 2014 season. Coming into the game the Wildcats were ranked 125th (out of 128) in scoring offense before they exploded last Saturday. Offensively, the Hawkeyes continued to struggle despite their 31 point output. The fact is, Iowa put up only 283 total yards on 68 plays for just 4.1 YPP. Even more disturbing was the Iowa running game tallied only 79 yards on 41 carries for 1.9 YPC. The previous week the Hawkeyes scored only 7 points on a Rutgers team that allowed 58 last Saturday vs Ohio State. While Iowa sits at 3-2 on the season, they have been outgained in every game but one this season. The good news is, they are fairly healthy. Besides the key loss of WR Vandeburg in the Rutgers game, the Hawks had no new injuries last week vs Northwestern.

Last Year – These two battle for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy which Iowa currently holds after a 40-35 win last season. The Hawkeyes led 40-28 late when Minnesota scored with just 1:15 remaining to make it close.

Inside the Numbers – The home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this Big Ten series. Since 1980, Iowa has been favored at Minnesota 13 times. The Hawkeyes are just 4-9 ATS in those games and even more telling just 6-7 SU. Two years ago they were favored by 1.5 at Minnesota and lost 51-14! Since the start of the 2007 season, Minnesota is 15-8 ATS as a home underdog.

Indiana at Ohio State (-29) – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Ohio State – Talk about sheer domination. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week but dare we say the final score didn’t indicate how dominant OSU was in that game? They outgained the Scarlet Knights 669-116! That’s the same Rutgers team that outgained Iowa a week earlier and gave the Hawkeyes all they could handle in a 14-7 loss. The 553 yard differential was the widest gap for the Buckeyes since Urban Meyer took the helm 5 years ago. It’s actually the second time already this year that OSU has outgained an opponent by more than 500 yards (Bowling Green). The Rutgers offense did not cross midfield the entire game. After 4 games, the Buckeyes closest game was a 21-point margin at Oklahoma. They’ve outscored their opponents 228-37 and outgained their four foes 2,305-952. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS covering those 4 games by a combined 94 points or 23.5 points per game. On top of that, this team is rested as the starters have been able to sit a fair portion in the 2nd half of 3 of their 4 games. They are also healthy.

Indiana – IU is off a huge win for the program topping Michigan State at home last week 24-21 in overtime. It was just their 7th win over MSU in the last 32 meetings. The Hoosier offense continues to hum along on offense under head coach Kevin Wilson averaging 29 PPG on 497 YPG. The surprise has been their defense. They are allowing “just” 21 PPG on 373 YPG. While that may not seem like a big deal, remember this Indiana team gave up over 37 PPG and more than 500 YPG last season. They have allowed 32 PPG or more in each of the last 6 seasons so this year has been a huge improvement. IU has actually played Ohio State very tough the last two seasons. Last year they had the ball inside OSU’s 10-yard line and a chance to tie the game with under 1:00 minute left before losing 34-27 as a 21.5 point underdog. A year earlier the Bucks were favored by 36.5 points at home and actually trailed with under 3:00 to go in the 3rd quarter. OSU won the game 42-27. That means the Hoosiers have covered vs OSU each of the last two years by a combined 36 points.

Last Year – Indiana gave OSU a scare last year in Bloomington with the Bucks winning 34-27. IU actually had the ball first & goal on Ohio State’s 6-yard line with under 1:00 remaining in the game but couldn’t get it into the endzone.

Inside the Numbers – As you would expect, OSU leads this series with an imposing 72-12-5 all-time record. The Hoosiers last outright win over the Buckeyes was way back in 1988. However, Indiana has now covered 5 in a row in this series by a combined 71 points (14.2 points per game).

Purdue at Illinois (-10.5) – (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Illinois – The Illini gave Nebraska all they could handle in Lincoln last week before falling 31-16. The game was much closer than that throughout as Illinois led heading into the 4th quarter and trailed just 17-16 with under 5:00 remaining in the game. It looked like the Illini defense wore down late in the game. In Nebraska’s 3 TD drives in the 4th quarter the Huskers pretty much kept the ball on the gournd and Illinois could not stop them. Those 3 drives combined for 205 total yards of which only 38 were through the air. Fatigue could be problem moving forward as the Illini have not controlled the clock and the defense has been on the field too much. In the last two games (Western Michigan & Nebraska) the Illini have held the ball for 48 minutes compared to 72 minutes for their opponents. They’ve also been outscored 28-0 in the 4th quarter in those two games. For the season, they have been outscored 45-17 in the 4th quarter. Last week’s loss dropped them to 1-3 on the year yet they are favored by double digits here. If you throw out their lone win vs FCS Murray State, the Illini are 0-3 and have been outscored by 64 points (21.3 PPG) and outgained by 428 yards (142 YPG). However, those 3 opponents have combined for a 14-1 record so all is not lost for the Illini.

Purdue – The Boilers were destroyed last week at Maryland 50-7 allowing the Terps to gash them for 400 yards on the ground. You can bet after rushing for 392 yards on 9.1 YPC last year and seeing the results from last week, Illinois will attempt to run the ball 40+ times on Saturday. Not only did Purdue allow 400 yards rushing but they only came up with 10 yards rushing on 27 carries. The task of running the ball might not get any easier as Purdue’s top RB and top offensive weapon Markell Jones injured his shoulder last week and may not play on Saturday. With that loss, Purdue has a record of 2-23 SU their last 25 Big Ten games! Even more telling, 18 of those 23 losses came by at least 10 points. They are also just 7-36 SU their last 43 road games. Their overall numbers aren’t terrible as Purdue is 2-2 on the season (same number of wins as all of last year) and they are outgaining their opponents by 7 yards per game. However, they were whipped by the two decent teams they played (Cincinnati & Maryland) both on the scoreboard and in the stat line. Purdue built up big stat advantages in their two wins over sub-par opponents Eastern Kentucky & Nevada, ranked 175th and 118th respectively (Sagarin ratings).

Last Year – The Illini destroyed Purdue in West Lafayette last year 48-14. It was no fluke as Illinois rolled up almost 600 total yards and held Purdue to just 263. They outrushed the Boilers by almost 300 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers – Since the start of the 2011 season, the Illini have been double digit favorites vs a conference opponent just 3 times (1-2 ATS) and they lost 2 of those games outright. Purdue has been an underdog in 25 of their last 26 Big Ten games. The Boilers are just 1-14 SU their last 15 road games. However, Purdue is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times they’ve been tabbed a double digit underdog.

Michigan (-27.5) at Rutgers – Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

Rutgers – The Wolverines should be licking their chops here after watching Ohio State put up almost 700 yards of total offense last week vs this Rutgers defense. The Knights were gashed for 7.5 yards per play while picking up only 2.1 YPP on offense. OSU ran a whopping 89 offensive plays to just 54 for Rutgers. At one point Ohio State scored points on 9 straight possessions. Offensively the Knights completed only 3 passes the ENTIRE GAME and rushed for only 2.2 YPC. However, Rutgers was playing quite well leading into last week’s blowout loss winning 2 of their 3 previous games with their only loss coming at home to Iowa by 7 points. If you throw out last week’s result, the Scarlet Knights had actually outgained their opponents by a combined 103 yards on the season. It’s possible this game might be affected by poor weather conditions as Hurricane Matthew is expected to affect the East Coast on Saturday. That can sometimes “even out” the playing field for an underdog playing a heavy favorite. We’ll see.

Michigan – Are the Wolverines actually playing on the road this weekend? Yes it’s true. Michigan travels to Rutgers leaving the friendly confines of the Big House for the first time this season. The Wolverines topped Wisconsin last week 14-7 in a game they controlled more than the final score indicated. The Michigan defense was ultra-impressive holding Wisconsin to just 159 total yards. The Badgers running game was able to average only 2.5 YPC and QB Hornibrook completed just 9 of his 25 passes. Michigan moved the ball fairly well against a very good Wisconsin defense totaling 349 yards. It was the first time this year they were held under 45 points. The Wolves were dealt a big blow though as starting LT Newsome was lost for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Much has been made of Michigan’s “easy” schedule but they have played two very good teams and beat them up pretty good. They topped Colorado by 17 points and the Buffs have since won at Oregon and crushed Oregon State by 41 points. Last week’s win over Wisconsin wasn’t hugely impressive on the scoreboard but outgaining the Badgers by nearly 200 yards was. This week’s game at Rutgers probably won’t tell us much and that leads into a Michigan bye week.

Last Year – Michigan is favored by more in this game (-27.5) than they were last year at home vs Rutgers. A year ago the Wolves were favored by 24 and whipped Rutgers 49-16. Two years ago, in their first and only other meeting, Rutgers upset Michigan at home 26-24 and the fans stormed the field.

Inside the Numbers – Michigan has not been a road favorite of more than 24 points since the 1998 season. They have not been a road favorite of that magnitude vs another Big Ten teams since 1992. They’ve only been a favorite of more than 24 points (home or away) in Big Ten play ONCE since the 2006 season. Rutgers has not been a home dog of 24 points or more since the 2003 season. Can the Knights pull the upset? Not likely as Rutgers is just 1-42 SU their last 43 as a double digit underdog.

Non-Conference Games

BYU at Michigan State (-6) - 3:30 PM EST

This lined opened MSU -4.5 and pushed to -6. Sparty is off back to back losses and they were favored in both (vs Wisconsin & Indiana). That is rare occurrence as entering this season MSU had a SU record of 66-10 the last 76 times they took the field as a favorite. The last time they lost back to back games when favored was back in 2012 when Nebraska & Northwestern beat them. This MSU offense has been underperforming making it tough on the “D”. They looked great a few weeks ago rolling up 36 points at Notre Dame. In hindsight, that performance doesn’t look all that impressive anymore as the Irish defense has been torched twice since that game for 38 & 33 points by the likes of Duke and Syracuse. Other than that game, this Michigan State offense scored 24 points vs Furman, 6 vs Wisconsin, and 21 vs an Indiana defense that allowed 37 PPG last season. BYU is traveling back to the eastern time zone for the 2nd time in 3 weeks after playing West Virginia at Fed Ex Field in Washington DC on September 24th. If BYU’s previous performances are any indication, we can expect a close game here. BYU is 3-2 on the season and their 5 games have been decided by a TOTAL of 11 points. The Cougars are already 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year and going back further they have covered 20 of their last 28 when getting points. Sparty has covered 6 of their last 7 when off back to back SU losses. Finally, the last time Michigan State lost 3 games in a row outright was back in 2009.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 1-3 0-1 2-2 1-3
Indiana 3-1 1-0 2-2 1-3
Iowa 3-2 1-1 1-4 2-3
Maryland 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-3
Michigan 4-0 1-0 3-1 4-0
Michigan State 2-2 0-2 1-3 1-3
Minnesota 3-1 0-1 1-2-1 2-2
Nebraska 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Northwestern 2-3 1-1 2-3 1-4
Ohio State 4-0 1-0 4-0 2-2
Penn State 3-2 1-1 1-3-1 5-0
Purdue 2-2 0-1 1-3 3-1
Rutgers 2-3 0-2 2-3 3-2
Wisconsin 4-1 1-1 4-1 1-4


Conference Games

Maryland (-1) at Penn State - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Penn State – The Nits picked up a huge win in OT last week coming from behind to top Minnesota 29-26. At halftime it looked like PSU was in big trouble down 10 and having put up only a FG in the first half. They went into the locker room averaging just 5.1 YPP and passing for just 95 yards. That pretty much played to the script of PSU all season as they have been outscored 92-54 in the 1st half this year. In the 2nd half the Lions erupted for 26 points, 295 yards passing, and over 9.0 YPP. PSU was 2-2 coming into the game and last week was pretty much dubbed a must win for a once proud program trying to turn the corner. The reaction of the players after the win speaks volumes. "That’s the best our locker room has ever been," said kicker Tyler Davis, a smiling redshirt junior. "That was awesome. I think that could really be a turning point to our season." Now sitting at 3-2 vs a tough schedule thus far (Kent, Pitt, Temple, Michigan, and Minnesota) the Nittany Lions have a chance to keep the momentum going with 2 more home games the next 2 Saturdays. Despite being above .500, PSU is getting outgained by an average of almost 40 YPG. Much of that, however, we due to their game at Michigan where they were outgained by well over 300 yards. Most of their other games were fairly even yardage wise. This week they played an undefeated Maryland team and this line has swung from Penn State -1 to Maryland -1 or -1.5 as of this writing on Wednesday.

Maryland – The Terps are 4-0 on the season but how good this team is has yet to be seen. In fact, none of their wins have come against a team ranked higher 63rd (Sagarin Ratings) with victories over FIU, UCF, Howard, and Purdue. That being said, last week’s win vs the Boilers was an impressive one. They put up 50 points, outrushed Purdue 400 yards to just 10 yards, and scored on 7 of their 12 drives (not including the drives that ended in a turnover). The Terps have now outgained 3 of their 4 opponents, UCF being the only exception, by a combined total of 564 yards. One huge reason for Maryland’s improvement is QB play. Interceptions thrown to be exact. This season the Terps have thrown only 1 interception making them one of eleven teams in the nation that has thrown one or fewer picks. Last year this team threw a whopping 29 interceptions which was the most in the nation by a full 6 picks. On top of not turning the ball over, QB Perry Hills has increased his completion percentage by 11% from last year and increased his yards per attempt by 2 full yards. We’ll quickly find out if Maryland is for real as their schedule now gets significantly more difficult. After Penn State, this team plays Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska in the upcoming weeks.

Last Year – If history is an indicator, we can expect a close game between these two. Last year PSU traveled to Maryland and squeaked out a 31-30 win despite getting outgained by 100 yards. The Terps turned the ball over 5 times in that game. The previous season Maryland won at Penn State by a final score of 20-19.

Inside the Numbers – If this number stays where it is, it will be the first time that Maryland has been favored in a conference game on the road since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Since 2005, PSU has been a home underdog just 11 times covering only 3 of those games. The Nittany Lions have dominated this series going 12-1-1 SU (5-8-1 ATS) since 1980.

Iowa (-2) at Minnesota – (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Minnesota – The Gophs are off OT road loss at PSU 29-26. The yardage was almost dead even but Minnesota ran a whopping 90 offensive plays to just 70 for Penn State. That was their first loss of the year after running up a 3-0 mark in the non-conference season (Oregon State, Indiana State, and Colorado State). Minnesota will “possibly” receive a boost this week as head coach Tracy Claeys has reinstated 4 suspended players including Hardin and Buford, two of the Gophs top corners. However, Claeys has said he’s not sure the players will play this Saturday. They could especially use Harding and Buford as injuries mount in the defensive backfield. On the other side of the ball, Minny welcomed back starting RB Shannon Brooks from injury two weeks ago vs Colorado State. He has given the offense a boost rushing for 185 yards on just 27 carries in his two games. That could be a problem for the Iowa defense that has given up 183 YPG on the ground after allowing just 121 YPG last season. One thing Minnesota does have to clean up is their penalty situation. They lead the Big Ten in penalty yardage at 76 YPG. That was after committing only 45 YPG in penalties last year and just 46 the year before.

Iowa – The Hawks continued their struggles by losing at home last Saturday to Northwestern. The Cats won the game 38-31 topping 30 points for first time since last September – a span of 15 games. It was also the first time the Iowa defense allowed more than 35 points in a regular season game since the 2014 season. Coming into the game the Wildcats were ranked 125th (out of 128) in scoring offense before they exploded last Saturday. Offensively, the Hawkeyes continued to struggle despite their 31 point output. The fact is, Iowa put up only 283 total yards on 68 plays for just 4.1 YPP. Even more disturbing was the Iowa running game tallied only 79 yards on 41 carries for 1.9 YPC. The previous week the Hawkeyes scored only 7 points on a Rutgers team that allowed 58 last Saturday vs Ohio State. While Iowa sits at 3-2 on the season, they have been outgained in every game but one this season. The good news is, they are fairly healthy. Besides the key loss of WR Vandeburg in the Rutgers game, the Hawks had no new injuries last week vs Northwestern.

Last Year – These two battle for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy which Iowa currently holds after a 40-35 win last season. The Hawkeyes led 40-28 late when Minnesota scored with just 1:15 remaining to make it close.

Inside the Numbers – The home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this Big Ten series. Since 1980, Iowa has been favored at Minnesota 13 times. The Hawkeyes are just 4-9 ATS in those games and even more telling just 6-7 SU. Two years ago they were favored by 1.5 at Minnesota and lost 51-14! Since the start of the 2007 season, Minnesota is 15-8 ATS as a home underdog.

Indiana at Ohio State (-29) – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Ohio State – Talk about sheer domination. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week but dare we say the final score didn’t indicate how dominant OSU was in that game? They outgained the Scarlet Knights 669-116! That’s the same Rutgers team that outgained Iowa a week earlier and gave the Hawkeyes all they could handle in a 14-7 loss. The 553 yard differential was the widest gap for the Buckeyes since Urban Meyer took the helm 5 years ago. It’s actually the second time already this year that OSU has outgained an opponent by more than 500 yards (Bowling Green). The Rutgers offense did not cross midfield the entire game. After 4 games, the Buckeyes closest game was a 21-point margin at Oklahoma. They’ve outscored their opponents 228-37 and outgained their four foes 2,305-952. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS covering those 4 games by a combined 94 points or 23.5 points per game. On top of that, this team is rested as the starters have been able to sit a fair portion in the 2nd half of 3 of their 4 games. They are also healthy.

Indiana – IU is off a huge win for the program topping Michigan State at home last week 24-21 in overtime. It was just their 7th win over MSU in the last 32 meetings. The Hoosier offense continues to hum along on offense under head coach Kevin Wilson averaging 29 PPG on 497 YPG. The surprise has been their defense. They are allowing “just” 21 PPG on 373 YPG. While that may not seem like a big deal, remember this Indiana team gave up over 37 PPG and more than 500 YPG last season. They have allowed 32 PPG or more in each of the last 6 seasons so this year has been a huge improvement. IU has actually played Ohio State very tough the last two seasons. Last year they had the ball inside OSU’s 10-yard line and a chance to tie the game with under 1:00 minute left before losing 34-27 as a 21.5 point underdog. A year earlier the Bucks were favored by 36.5 points at home and actually trailed with under 3:00 to go in the 3rd quarter. OSU won the game 42-27. That means the Hoosiers have covered vs OSU each of the last two years by a combined 36 points.

Last Year – Indiana gave OSU a scare last year in Bloomington with the Bucks winning 34-27. IU actually had the ball first & goal on Ohio State’s 6-yard line with under 1:00 remaining in the game but couldn’t get it into the endzone.

Inside the Numbers – As you would expect, OSU leads this series with an imposing 72-12-5 all-time record. The Hoosiers last outright win over the Buckeyes was way back in 1988. However, Indiana has now covered 5 in a row in this series by a combined 71 points (14.2 points per game).

Purdue at Illinois (-10.5) – (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Illinois – The Illini gave Nebraska all they could handle in Lincoln last week before falling 31-16. The game was much closer than that throughout as Illinois led heading into the 4th quarter and trailed just 17-16 with under 5:00 remaining in the game. It looked like the Illini defense wore down late in the game. In Nebraska’s 3 TD drives in the 4th quarter the Huskers pretty much kept the ball on the gournd and Illinois could not stop them. Those 3 drives combined for 205 total yards of which only 38 were through the air. Fatigue could be problem moving forward as the Illini have not controlled the clock and the defense has been on the field too much. In the last two games (Western Michigan & Nebraska) the Illini have held the ball for 48 minutes compared to 72 minutes for their opponents. They’ve also been outscored 28-0 in the 4th quarter in those two games. For the season, they have been outscored 45-17 in the 4th quarter. Last week’s loss dropped them to 1-3 on the year yet they are favored by double digits here. If you throw out their lone win vs FCS Murray State, the Illini are 0-3 and have been outscored by 64 points (21.3 PPG) and outgained by 428 yards (142 YPG). However, those 3 opponents have combined for a 14-1 record so all is not lost for the Illini.

Purdue – The Boilers were destroyed last week at Maryland 50-7 allowing the Terps to gash them for 400 yards on the ground. You can bet after rushing for 392 yards on 9.1 YPC last year and seeing the results from last week, Illinois will attempt to run the ball 40+ times on Saturday. Not only did Purdue allow 400 yards rushing but they only came up with 10 yards rushing on 27 carries. The task of running the ball might not get any easier as Purdue’s top RB and top offensive weapon Markell Jones injured his shoulder last week and may not play on Saturday. With that loss, Purdue has a record of 2-23 SU their last 25 Big Ten games! Even more telling, 18 of those 23 losses came by at least 10 points. They are also just 7-36 SU their last 43 road games. Their overall numbers aren’t terrible as Purdue is 2-2 on the season (same number of wins as all of last year) and they are outgaining their opponents by 7 yards per game. However, they were whipped by the two decent teams they played (Cincinnati & Maryland) both on the scoreboard and in the stat line. Purdue built up big stat advantages in their two wins over sub-par opponents Eastern Kentucky & Nevada, ranked 175th and 118th respectively (Sagarin ratings).

Last Year – The Illini destroyed Purdue in West Lafayette last year 48-14. It was no fluke as Illinois rolled up almost 600 total yards and held Purdue to just 263. They outrushed the Boilers by almost 300 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers – Since the start of the 2011 season, the Illini have been double digit favorites vs a conference opponent just 3 times (1-2 ATS) and they lost 2 of those games outright. Purdue has been an underdog in 25 of their last 26 Big Ten games. The Boilers are just 1-14 SU their last 15 road games. However, Purdue is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times they’ve been tabbed a double digit underdog.

Michigan (-27.5) at Rutgers – Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

Rutgers – The Wolverines should be licking their chops here after watching Ohio State put up almost 700 yards of total offense last week vs this Rutgers defense. The Knights were gashed for 7.5 yards per play while picking up only 2.1 YPP on offense. OSU ran a whopping 89 offensive plays to just 54 for Rutgers. At one point Ohio State scored points on 9 straight possessions. Offensively the Knights completed only 3 passes the ENTIRE GAME and rushed for only 2.2 YPC. However, Rutgers was playing quite well leading into last week’s blowout loss winning 2 of their 3 previous games with their only loss coming at home to Iowa by 7 points. If you throw out last week’s result, the Scarlet Knights had actually outgained their opponents by a combined 103 yards on the season. It’s possible this game might be affected by poor weather conditions as Hurricane Matthew is expected to affect the East Coast on Saturday. That can sometimes “even out” the playing field for an underdog playing a heavy favorite. We’ll see.

Michigan – Are the Wolverines actually playing on the road this weekend? Yes it’s true. Michigan travels to Rutgers leaving the friendly confines of the Big House for the first time this season. The Wolverines topped Wisconsin last week 14-7 in a game they controlled more than the final score indicated. The Michigan defense was ultra-impressive holding Wisconsin to just 159 total yards. The Badgers running game was able to average only 2.5 YPC and QB Hornibrook completed just 9 of his 25 passes. Michigan moved the ball fairly well against a very good Wisconsin defense totaling 349 yards. It was the first time this year they were held under 45 points. The Wolves were dealt a big blow though as starting LT Newsome was lost for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Much has been made of Michigan’s “easy” schedule but they have played two very good teams and beat them up pretty good. They topped Colorado by 17 points and the Buffs have since won at Oregon and crushed Oregon State by 41 points. Last week’s win over Wisconsin wasn’t hugely impressive on the scoreboard but outgaining the Badgers by nearly 200 yards was. This week’s game at Rutgers probably won’t tell us much and that leads into a Michigan bye week.

Last Year – Michigan is favored by more in this game (-27.5) than they were last year at home vs Rutgers. A year ago the Wolves were favored by 24 and whipped Rutgers 49-16. Two years ago, in their first and only other meeting, Rutgers upset Michigan at home 26-24 and the fans stormed the field.

Inside the Numbers – Michigan has not been a road favorite of more than 24 points since the 1998 season. They have not been a road favorite of that magnitude vs another Big Ten teams since 1992. They’ve only been a favorite of more than 24 points (home or away) in Big Ten play ONCE since the 2006 season. Rutgers has not been a home dog of 24 points or more since the 2003 season. Can the Knights pull the upset? Not likely as Rutgers is just 1-42 SU their last 43 as a double digit underdog.

Non-Conference Games

BYU at Michigan State (-6) - 3:30 PM EST

This lined opened MSU -4.5 and pushed to -6. Sparty is off back to back losses and they were favored in both (vs Wisconsin & Indiana). That is rare occurrence as entering this season MSU had a SU record of 66-10 the last 76 times they took the field as a favorite. The last time they lost back to back games when favored was back in 2012 when Nebraska & Northwestern beat them. This MSU offense has been underperforming making it tough on the “D”. They looked great a few weeks ago rolling up 36 points at Notre Dame. In hindsight, that performance doesn’t look all that impressive anymore as the Irish defense has been torched twice since that game for 38 & 33 points by the likes of Duke and Syracuse. Other than that game, this Michigan State offense scored 24 points vs Furman, 6 vs Wisconsin, and 21 vs an Indiana defense that allowed 37 PPG last season. BYU is traveling back to the eastern time zone for the 2nd time in 3 weeks after playing West Virginia at Fed Ex Field in Washington DC on September 24th. If BYU’s previous performances are any indication, we can expect a close game here. BYU is 3-2 on the season and their 5 games have been decided by a TOTAL of 11 points. The Cougars are already 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year and going back further they have covered 20 of their last 28 when getting points. Sparty has covered 6 of their last 7 when off back to back SU losses. Finally, the last time Michigan State lost 3 games in a row outright was back in 2009.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-3 0-2 1-4 3-2
Arizona State 4-1 1-1 3-2 3-2
California 3-2 1-1 3-2 4-1
Colorado 4-1 2-0 5-0 3-2
Oregon 2-3 0-2 0-4-1 3-2
Oregon State 1-3 0-1 2-2 1-3
Southern California 2-3 1-2 2-3 2-3
Stanford 3-1 2-1 3-1 1-3
UCLA 3-2 1-1 1-4 2-2-1
Utah 4-1 1-1 2-3 2-3
Washington 5-0 2-0 3-2 4-1
Washington State 2-2 1-0 3-1 2-2

Colorado at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
This game has plenty of questions, with the biggest one being is Colorado for real? We'll get a good indication early in their visit to USC, a team which looked awfully good last weekend against a previously unbeaten Arizona State team. The Buffaloes have covered all five of their games, and they are off to a 2-0 conference start after dropping both of the Oregon schools. The Buffaloes are back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2005, and if they hope to remain they need a signature win against the Trojans. QB Steven Montez filled in admirably over the past two outings for the injured QB Sefo Liufau, who is ready to return. It's uncertain who head coach Mike MacIntyre plans to use under center. Colorado enters 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a losing home record. USC enters just 3-8 ATS over their past 11 overall dating back to last season, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight in conference. That includes a 27-24 win and non-cover at Colorado last November.

Washington at Oregon (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
Washington annihilated Stanford 44-6 last weekend in Seattle, now take it on the road to battle a wounded, yet still very dangerous Oregon team. The Ducks have dropped an uncharacteristic three games in a row, including two straight to open their conference schedule. A win over Washington could save their season. If Oregon is able to grab the 'W', it would be a 13th straight victory over the Huskies for the 'Webfoots'. The Huskies enter 6-2 ATS over their past eight overall, 13-5 ATS in their past 18 against teams with an overall losing record and 4-0 ATS in their past four on the road against teams with a losing home record. Oregon is still 14-5 ATS in their past 19 conference tilts while going 27-11-1 ATS in their past 39 against teams with an overall winning record. Still, those trends for Oregon have come with much better teams. Oregon is 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, which is a bit more indicative of this team. Washington enters 3-12-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings with Oregon, and 0-6-1 ATS in the past seven in their House of Horrors, Autzen Stadium. Washington enters as a nine-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

California at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Cal has alternated wins and losses this season through five games, and they're coming off an impressive 28-23 win at home against previously unbeaten Utah. If that trend holds up, Oregon State is ready to pull off an upset as a 12 1/2-point underdog in Corvallis. But the Beavers are terrible, losing all three of its games against FBS teams this season. Oregon State had been a tough out, though, losing by seven at Minnesota and 14 against Boise State. However, they had their clocks cleaned in Boulder last week, falling 47-6 to Colorado. Cal has an Air Raid passing attack capable of putting up points in a hurry. They pounded Oregon State 54-24 last November, and a similar result is likely in this one.

Arizona at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
The Wildcats hit the road for Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City and they'll meet an angry Utah team coming off a 28-23 loss at Cal last weekend. Arizona hasn't fared very well against the number, going 1-4 ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS in two games away from home. Utah looks to avenge an overtime setback in Arizona last season, 37-30. The Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with an overall losing record. They haven't followed up failure very well, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four following a straight-up loss. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings with Utah, and they're also 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to SLC. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series.

UCLA at Arizona State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m.)
UCLA heads to Tempe looking to avoid a third loss, while Arizona State looks to get back on track after an ugly loss at USC last weekend. The Bruins have owned this series, at least against the number, going 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The road team has also covered four of the past five meetings in this series. UCLA has been ice-cold against the spread lately, though, going 1-4 ATS in their past five against winning teams, 1-6 ATS in their past seven dating back to last season and 0-4 ATS in their past four on the road. AZ State is 5-0 ATS in their past five against winning teams, 6-0 ATS in their past six games at home and 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall, although one of those two ATS losses came last week at USC. The over has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series, and the over is 4-1 in Arizona State's past five at home. The over is also 5-0 in AZ States past five against teams with a winning record.

Washington State at Stanford (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
Washington State picked up an important win at home against Oregon, but they'll have their work cut out against an angry Stanford team which was embarrassed 44-6 at Washington a week ago. The Cougars have been red hot against the number, going 5-0 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home record, 8-0 ATS in their past eight overall against winning teams, 9-1 ATS in their past 10 conference games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven road outings. They're also 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games overall. For Stanford, they are 40-18-1 ATS in their past 59 games on 'The Farm', and they're a strong 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games following a straight up loss. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. Stanford enters as a 7 1/2-point favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Last week, sportsbooks came through with a prop on who will replace Les Miles as the LSU coach for next season. Now I'm hoping that or another site puts out a prop this week regarding Charlie Strong's future at Texas and who might be UT's coach next season. I don't see how it will be Strong.

Everyone thought Strong was safe after Texas' 50-47 double-overtime win over Notre Dame in Week 1. But now we know the Irish aren't all that great and we certainly know there's a major problem on the defensive side of the ball for the Longhorns. On Saturday, Texas (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) lost its second straight game, 49-31 at Oklahoma State, the third time this year the team has given up at least 47 points. Texas athletic director Mike Perrin pledged to look at "all facets" after the game.

ESPN reported that the school will not fire Strong during the season. That could easily change this Saturday if UT loses to No. 20 Oklahoma in the annual Red River Rivalry (Showdown, Shootout, whatever name they are giving it these days) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. OU opened as a 10.5-point favorite and if the Sooners cover that, Strong might be canned immediately. UT already has 10 losses of 18 points or more in three years under Strong.

The coach did make a change on Sunday. He used to be a defensive coordinator at South Carolina and Florida and he will take over the defense going forward after demoting coordinator Vance Bedford, one week after supporting him. The Horns had two weeks to prepare for Oklahoma State and put four new starters in the defensive lineup yet allowed those 49 points and 555 yards without forcing a turnover. Texas ranks last in the Big 12 in scoring defense at 38.3 points per game and second-worst nationally in takeaways, having forced only one turnover in 228 plays. Toledo is the only FBS team without a defensive turnover yet.

To make matters worse this week, both of Texas' top running backs, Chris Warren III and D'Onta Foreman, left that loss with injuries and their status is unclear for Saturday. Arguably Strong's biggest win was an upset of No. 10 Oklahoma 24-17 last year. UT hasn't won back-to-back games in the series since 2008-09. This will be the fourth straight season Texas is unranked in the matchup. If Texas does fire Strong, no question that Houston's Tom Herman would be at the top of the school's list just as Herman is at LSU.

Here are a few Week 6 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll and games Saturday unless noted.

No. 3 Clemson at Boston College (+16.5): This game is Friday night. I took the then-No. 5 Tigers to beat No. 3 Louisville on Saturday in Death Valley and they did in a thriller 42-36. In a way, that was the best possible result for the ACC as if both Clemson and Louisville run the table, they both might get into the College Football Playoff; Clemson for sure will. Deshaun Watson threw his name back in the Heisman race by throwing for 306 yards and five touchdowns and rushing for 91 more yards vs. the Cardinals. He hit Jordan Leggett on a 31-yard TD pass with 3:14 left for the winning points. Clemson had only one drive longer than three minutes out of 16 possessions. It had five touchdown drives that lasted less than a minute and three that lasted 26 seconds or less. This game seems to scream trap for Clemson, however. BC basically had a scrimmage on Saturday in beating Buffalo 35-3. An upset here would get Coach Steve Addazio off the hot seat. The Eagles lost 34-17 at Clemson last year. The pick: I'm taking the points but holding off to see if it gets to 17.5.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas A&M (-6.5); The game of the day. I can't tell if the Volunteers are luck or good or both. They are starting to remind me of Auburn in 2013 when every lucky bounce seemed to go the Tigers' way as they won the SEC title and barely lost to Florida State in the final BCS National Championship Game. Auburn beat Georgia that season on an incredible desperation TD pass. That's exactly what UT did on Saturday in winning at Georgia 34-31. The Dawgs took a 31-28 lead on a 47-yard TD pass from Jacob Eason to Riley Ridley with 10 seconds left. But an excessive celebration penalty forced UGA to kick off from its own 20 and a good return from Evan Berry put UT in a position where QB Josh Dobbs would be able to throw it into the end zone. He did and Jauan Jennings caught a 43-yarder with no time left to take total control of the SEC East Division. Based on win probability, Tennessee's comeback was the fourth-most-improbable win by a Power 5 school in the past 10 seasons. It's the fourth time that Tennessee has rallied from a double-digit deficit to win this season. Texas A&M is no stranger to starting 5-0 as it has the last two seasons as well but then fallen apart. The Aggies warmed up for this one with a 24-13 win at South Carolina. Don't take A&M coach Kevin Sumlin off the hot seat quite yet, though. This team could easily still lose four regular-season games. It's the first meeting between these schools as SEC members. The pick: Texas A&M.

No. 5 Washington at Oregon (+8.5): I guess the University of Washington is back among the nation's elite. No team was more impressive in Week 5 than the Huskies, who destroyed defending Pac-12 champion Stanford 44-6, ending Christian McCaffrey's Heisman hopes by limiting him to 49 yards rushing on 12 carries and 30 receiving yards on five catches. The Cardinal had just 213 yards as they were simply pushed around (QBs sacked eight times) in their worst loss in nine years. It was Washington's biggest win over a Top 10 team ever. UW jumped to No. 5 in the AP poll this week, the first time ranked in the Top 5 since 2000. If the Huskies win this game, the Pac-12 North race is all but over already. They haven't beaten the Ducks since 2003, but these programs are trending in very opposite directions now. Oregon is 2-3 following a blowout loss at Washington State -- allowing 651 yards -- and Coach Mark Helfrich is in major trouble. Looking at the rest of the schedule, the Ducks might not even reach a bowl game. Nike boss Phil Knight won't stand for that. The Ducks will have another set of amazing uniforms on this week that say Webfoots on them as an homage to their first nickname. The pick: I can't not take Oregon getting that many points at home even though I think UW does win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Huskies end a long streak this weekend'

Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks October 8, 7:30 EST

Two programs headed in opposite direction meet in Eugene, Oregon when Huskies visit Ducks. Huskies off a 44-6 shellacking of then-#7 Stanford as 3.5 point home chalk are putting up 45.4 points/game while allowing a stingy 12.8 per/contest. Meanwhile, Ducks behind a suspect defense allowing 490.4 yards, 36.2 points/game are reeling after dropping a third consecutive game 51-33 at Washington State last week as 2.5 point road favorite.

Ducks have owned this Pac-12 rivalry, going 12-0 SU, 11-0-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings including 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS at Autzen Stadium. But this efficient, disciplined Washington squad with its ferocious defense are the real deal and look primed to end its long losing streak vs Oregon. Sportsbooks currently have the Huskies -8.5 point road favorites to knock off Ducks for the first time since Nov. 2003 and first time in Eugene since Nov 2002.

 

[ryangenero]

Football Jesus Text : IOWA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

Maryland-Penn State split pair of one-point decisions last two years; Terrapins scored 40.3 pts/game in winning first three I-A games, but they step up in class here, against PSU squad that needed OT to beat Minnesota LW. Maryland is 5-8 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points. Under Franklin, Nittany Lions are 2-2-1 in such games. Terms ran for 295 yards/game last three weeks; they had 400 YR in LW’s Big 14 opener vs Purdue. PSU allowed 554 rushing yards in its last two games, vs Michigan/Minnesota. Terms are 15-9 vs spread in last 24 road games.

Iowa lost two of last three games and win was 14-7 at Rutgers, hardly impressive; they also lost to I-AA North Dakota State. Hawkeyes had been 9-0 as a road favorite last 4+ years before not covering at Rutgers. Favorites covered last four Iowa-Minnesota games; Hawkeyes are 11-4 in last 15 series games, but are 2-4 in last visits here, winning 23-7/55-0- they survived wild 40-35 (-9.5) home win vs Minnesota LY. Gophers lost in OT at Penn State LW; total yardage was 471-469; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog, 2-4 in last six games with spread of 3 or less points.

Virginia Tech is 9-3 in last 12 games with North Carolina, 4-3 in last seven; Hokies won five of last six visits to Chapel Hill- favorites covered four of last five series games at UNC. Tar Heels won last two games by total of 3 points; they’ve got to come back to earth after huge win LW at Florida State, making 54-yard FG on last play. UNC has allowed 31.8 pts/game vs I-A foes this year. Tech is 8-6-1 in its last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points; this is Hokies’ first true road game- they lost 45-24 to Tennessee on neutral field at Bristol. Tech is 5-2 in its last seven games as a road dog. UNC is 3-6 in its last nine games with spread of 3 or less points.

NC State/Notre Dame haven’t met since a bowl game 14 years ago. Fighting Irish are 2-3, giving up 33+ points, 489+ TY in four of five games- they lost 50-47 in OT at Texas, in only true road game this year. ND is 6-9 vs spread in last 15 true road games. Wolfpack scored 34 pts/game in its three I-A games but step up in class here; State is 2-6 as home dog under Doeren- they threw for 639 yards in last two games. Notre Dame is 4-2 in last six games with spread of 3 or less points; State is 3-7 in its last ten. ACC underdogs are 6-4 vs spread out of conference this season.

Texas allowed 788 PY, 99 points in losing last two games; at disappointing 2-2, only team they held under 47 points this season is UTEP. Oklahoma allowed 91 points in splitting last two games- they beat TCU 52-46 LW, giving up 449 PY. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in last nine Oklahoma-Texas games (3-0 last three years); Texas won two of last three years, despite being 12+-point dogs in all three games— Sooners averaged only 157.7 PY in those games. Longhorns are 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a double digit dog. Oklahoma is 14-17 in last 31 games as a double digit favorite.

Florida State’s defense is sub-par this year, giving up 42.3 pts/game vs I-A opponents. Losing on last-second 54-yard FG wrecked their season, tough bounce back here in rivalry game with an unbeaten Miami team. Underdogs are 12-3 vs spread in last 15 FSU-Miami games. Florida State won its last six games with Miami, with three of last five by 5 or less points; FSU won its last five visits here- they’ve won SU last four times they were a series underdog. Hurricanes won their I-A games by 28-35-14 points; they’re 12-3-2 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points. Seminoles are 7-2 under Fisher when spread is 3 or less points.

Road team won last four UCLA-Arizona State games; Bruins won 62-27/45-43 in last two visits to Tempe. UCLA covered four of last five as a series favorite, but allowed 448+ TY in its last six games vs ASU. Bruins allowed 449 rushing yards last two weeks, vs Stanford/Arizona; they’re 8-5-1 as road favorites under Mora, 0-0-1 this year, winning 17-14 at BYU after losing at Texas A&M in OT. Sun Devils allowed 1,160 TY last two games; four of their five opponents threw ball for 366+ yards; they’re 5-11 as underdogs under Graham, 1-3 at home. Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 vs spread in conference games, 3-1 if an underdog.

Home side won six of last seven Georgia-South Carolina games; Dawgs lost last three visits here, by 3-28-11 points. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in series. Georgia allowed 79 points in losing last two games; they got their hearts torn out on last-play Hail Mary by Tennessee LW. Dawgs are giving up 32.5 pts/game vs I-A foes- they’re 5-7 in last 12 games as a road favorite. Carolina lost three of last four games; they allowed 432 rushing yards in last two games. SC has been held to 14 or less points in four of five games this year. Since 2009, Gamecocks are 7-1 as a home underdog.

Tennessee pulled rabbits out of a hat the last two weeks, scoring on Hail Mary to win LW after rallying from down 21-3 at half to beat Florida the week before; they play Alabama next week, better not look past this game. Vols are 4-5 as road underdogs under Jones; LW was their first true road game this year. Texas A&M is 5-0 with three wins away from home and an OT win over UCLA here, their only home game vs I-A foe; Aggies are 10-14 as home favorites under Sumlin, 1-0 this year- they’ve run ball for 254 yards/game vs I-A opponents this year. Teams last met in 2004.

Oregon lost its last three games, allowing 256 rushing yards, 42.3 pts/game; locusts will start circling over coach Helfrich with another loss here, vs Washington team Ducks have beaten 12 times in row, 11 by 17+ points (11-1 vs spread). Oregon is +10 in turnovers in last five series games. Huskies lost last six visits to Eugene (0-6 vs spread), but are 3-2 as road favorites under Petersen; they needed OT to win 35-28 at Arizona (-13) in only road game this season. Washington held Stanford to 216 TY in impressive 44-6 win last Friday. Oregon is a home underdog for first time in seven years; they allowed 1,244 TY in last two games.

Colorado is having a breakthrough season, off to a 4-1 start with win at Oregon; Buffs scored 88 points in last two games with a backup QB- they’ve run ball for 506 yards in last two games, are 4-0 vs spread this season. 5-2 in last seven games as a road underdog. USC is just 2-3, but won/covered its two home games, 45-7 over Utah State, 41-20 over ASU; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as home favorite. Trojans won their last five games with Colorado (3-2 vs spread), scoring 44.4 pts/game; Buffs lost 50-6/56-28 in their last two visits here. Home favorites are 7-1 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games this season.

LSU-Florida was postponed because of the hurricane in the Sunshine State.

Alabama is 5-0 this season with four one-sided wins; they won 48-43 at Ole Miss in only true road game, rallying back from being down double digits in first half. Crimson Tide won its last nine games with Arkansas, winning by 1-13 points last two years; Bama is 5-3 vs spread in last eight series meetings, 4-0 SU in last four visits here, winning by 1-52-4-35 points- they’re 2-4 as a favorite in Arkansas. Razorbacks got waxed by Texas A&M two weeks ago, after winning tight games with La Tech/TCU to open season; Hogs are 4-4 as home dogs under Bielema. Arkansas allowed 34.3 pts/game in three games that weren’t against stiffs.

Washington State gave up 76 points in losing its first two games this year (ran ball 45 times for 137 yards), then ran ball for 75 times for 528 yards in last two games and won them, upsetting Oregon LW. Coogs are 13-3 vs spread in last 16 games as a road underdog. Stanford won its last eight games with Wazzu (5-3 vs spread); they’re +8 in turnovers in last four series games. Cardinal played USC-UCLA-Washington last three weekends; they got crushed by U-Dub last week, losing 44-6. Stanford is 12-6 in its last 18 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season. Even in their three wins this year, Cardinal scored only 25 mpg, all against good teams, though.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Oct. 8

MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON...Ugh! Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings. Zips only 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread at InfoCision. RedHawks 10-4 vs. spread as road dog for Chuck Martin since 2014.

Miami-O, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at BUFFALO... If Flashes a dog note 5-8 mark on road in role since 2014. If Bulls chalk note 1-5 mark in role since LY.

Slight to Kent State, if dog, based on Buffalo chalk marks.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN... NIU 1-7 last 8 vs. line since late 2015. But Huskies have won last seven SU in series with covers in four of last five vs. WMU. NIU 5-1 as visiting dog past two seasons but 0-1 in role TY. Broncos have started 5-0 SU and vs. line TY including 2-0 as Waldo chalk (though 1-3 in role LY).

Slight to WMU, based on current trends.


BYU at MICHIGAN STATE...Sitake now 4-1 vs. line for Cougs, who are 6-2 as dog since LY. Dantonio 3-6 last 9 as home chalk.

BYU, based on recent trends.


GEORGIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...Paul Johnson had won and covered first two vs. Pitt in 2013-14 before losing LY. Jackets on 2-12-1 spread skid since early 2015. Narduzzi 1-5 as home chalk since LY.

GT, based on extended trends.


MARYLAND at PENN STATE...These teams have played one-point games the past two seasons, splitting them SU. James Franklin on extended 8-18 spread skid since early in 2014 season. Terps were 7-3 as road dog past two seasons.

Slight to Maryland, based on team trends.


IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Home team 4-1 vs. line last five meetings (OSU 2-0 at home). Matt Campbell was 11-6 as dog with Toledo, 2-1 in role with Cyclones. Gundy just 5-7 as DD chalk since 2014.

Slight to ISU, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at UCONN...All Cincy lately, wins and covers five straight in series. Tuberville 5-2 last seven as visiting chalk. Diaco 4-12 vs. line at home since 2014.

Cincy, based on team trends.


TCU at KANSAS...KU has covered last four in series! Considering Jayhawks 18-33-1 vs. line since 2012, that is curious! TCU 1-4 as road chalk LY but did cover first chance in role this season (at SMU).

Slight to Kansas, based on series trends.


ARMY at DUKE...Though destroyed 44-3 at home LY by Duke, Army 5-0-2 as dog away from West Point since LY. Blue Devils 2-6 as home chalk since LY, both covers vs. NC Central.

Army, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at WAKE FOREST...Wake 0-2 as home chalk TY, 1-5 in role for Clawson since 2013. Cuse has won and covered last three in series.

Cuse, based on series trends.


TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder, who lost 66-14 to Leach in his return year to K-State in 2009, subsequently brutalized Red Raiders four in a row before losing 59-44 LY. Kingsbury on 6-2 spread uptick since late LY. Red Raiders 3-3 as dog away from Lubbock since LY (0-1 TY). Snyder 15-9 as home chalk since 2012.

K-State, based on extended trends.


IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered last two and four of last six in Floyd bloodbath. Ferentz had covered nine straight as visiting chalk prior to spread L at Rutgers. Gophers 13-6 as dog since 2013.

Slight to Minnesota, based on team and series trends.


INDIANA at OHIO STATE...Urban surprising 0-4 vs. line vs. IU, which has also covered last five in series! Bucks 2-0 as home chalk TY after 1-6 mark in role in 2015.

Indiana, based on series trends.


PURDUE at ILLINOIS...Hazell 7-3 as road dog the past two seasons. Visiting team has won outright last four years in series. Illini 4-1 as chalk since LY (1-0 for Lovie) but just 18-28 as chalk dating to 2008.

Purdue, based on team and series trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Beamer covered last three meetings vs. UNC before retiring. Heels only 11-10 overall vs. spread last 21 on board. Fuente was 8-4-1 as dog with Memphis past three seasons but 0-1 in role with Hokies.

Slight to VPI, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at NC STATE...Irish 3-6 vs. line last nine since late 2015. So is NCS, though Pack is 2-1 vs. line TY. If favored, note Brian Kelly 1-5 vs. line last six as chalk away from South Bend.

Slight to NCS, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at OHIO...Tough start for BGSU, now no covers last six since late LY after Babers left for Cuse. Dino hammered Solich past two seasons and Falcs have won last four and covered last five vs. Bobcats. Solich on 7-2 spread uptick since late 2015.

Ohio, based on current trends.


TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Toledo has won last nine SU in series (8-1 vs. line in those games). Rockets 20-10 vs. line as visitor since 2011. EMU 6-12 as Ypsilanti dog since 2012.

Toledo, based on team and series trends.


HOUSTON at NAVY... Cougs rolled Navy LY 52-31, UH now 16-1-1 vs. spread last 18 as visitor! Mids 8-4 last 12 as dog.

Houston, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at SOUTH FLORIDA...USF on 12-2 reg season spread run for Taggart. Bulls have covered last five as Tampa chalk and also covered last two years in series. Pirates 0-2 vs. line away TY.

USF, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)...Charlie has covered both vs. Stoops and won SU a year ago, in fact Texas has covered last three in series. Stoops only 13-14 last 27 as chalk.

Texas, based on recent series and team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at MIAMI-FLA...Noles have won last six SU in series, spanning the Jimbo regime at FSU, though Canes have covered 3 of last 5 meetings. Richt 4-0 SU and vs. line as Miami now 6-1-1 last eight vs. spread at Hard Rock Stadium.

Miami, based on team trends.


TEXAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE...Bobcats 1-7 vs. line away since LY (1-1 for Withers). Road team however has covered last three years in series. GSU 1-3 all-time as chalk.

TSU, based on series road trend.


UMASS at OLD DOMINION...Mass 4-2 last six vs. spread, but note ODU 3-0 as chalk TY!

Slight to ODU, based on team trends.


CHARLOTTE at FAU...FAU 0-5 vs. line TY and 3-12-1 vs. points since early 2015. Owls no covers last seven as home chalk.

Charlotte, based on FAU negatives.


UCLA at ARIZONA STATE...Road team has won and covered last four meetings.

UCLA, based on series road trends.


BALL STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Mike Neu 4-1 vs. line for Ball, which is also 3-0 vs. spread away in 2016. Cards were 19-12 vs. line as visitor for Pete Lembo. Cards have covered 5 of last 6 in series.

Ball State, based on team and series trends.


AIR FORCE at WYOMING...Bohl has covered last two vs. AF, and Wyo has covered last seven in series! Falcs 4-7 last 11 as road chalk.

Wyoming, based on series trends.


GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Home team 5-0-1 vs. line last six in series Muschamp 10-5-1 last 15 as dog (Gators & Gamecocks) since 2012.

South Carolina, based on team and series home trends.


TENNESSEE at TEXAS A&M...Butch Jones 7-1 vs. line last eight away from Knoxville, and 5-2 as dog since 2014. Ags 4-1 vs. line TY but Sumlin was only 6-12 as home chalk the previous three years.

Tennessee, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY...Vandy has covered five straight in series. Dores also 9-4 last 11 as SEC road dog.

Vandy, based on series and team trends.


AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 2-1 SU, 3-0 vs. line against Malzahn, and has covered four straight vs. Auburn. MSU 8-3 vs. line last 11 as SEC host. Malzahn 4-1 vs. line TY after 3-15 spread slide.

MSU, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at NEVADA...Fresno has covered last three trips to Reno. Road team has covered last five in series. DeRuyter however just 1-7 as road dog since LY.

Slight to Fresno, based on series trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON...Huskies no SU wins in series since Keith Gilbertson in 2003! Ducks win and covers last 12 meetings! Helfrich only 2-8 vs. spread at Autzen Stadium since LY.

Slight to Oregon, based on series trends.


COLORADO at SOUTHERN CAL...MacIntyre 5-0 vs. line TY, now 10-2 last 12 on board. Buffs 6-1 vs. spread last 7 away from Boulder. Trojans have covered last three at Coliseum but Helton 3-8 last 11 vs. line.

CU, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS...First trip outside state for Wolverines! Michigan only 2-5 as visiting chalk since 2013 (2-2 for Harbaugh LY). 'Gers only 3-7 as dog since LY (1-2 TY for Ash).

Michigan, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at NORTH TEXAS...UNT 12-6 vs. line last 18 at Denton, and Green covered vs. Herd LY.

UNT, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTSA...USM has covered last two years in series. Golden Eagles 11-3 vs. line last 14 as visitor.

USM, based on team and series trends.


LSU at FLORIDA...LSU 5-11-1 last 17 on board before Miles dismissed, but Oregeron now 6-3 vs. line as So Cal & LSU interim since 2013. Tigers 4-1-1 vs. line last six in series. McElwain on 3-8 spread skid since mid 2015, also just 3-6 vs. line at Swamp since LY.

Slight to LSU, based on series trends.


IDAHO at ULM...Idaho has covered last two meetings and won 27-13 at Monroe LY! If Vandals a dog note 11-3 mark on road in role since 2014! Warhawks 3-0 vs. line for Matt Viator but 7-13 last 20 vs. line at home.

Idaho, based on team trends.


FIU at UTEP...FIU on 1-7-1 spread slump since late 2015. Big revenge for UTEP after getting clobbered 52-12 LY. Miners no covers last two at home but still 9-4 vs. spread at Sun Bowl since 2014 (5-1 as home chalk that span).

UTEP, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at ARKANSAS...Saban 9-0 SU vs. Hogs since arriving at Bama in 2007, though Bielema has covered last two. Tide 7-3 last ten as chalk away from home. Bielema 10-3 as dog since 2014 (1-1 TY).

Slight to Bama, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at UTAH...Rich-Rod 4-0 SU and vs. line against Utes. Though Cats just 3-8 vs. spread last ten as visiting dog. Utah 3-7 last ten as Salt Lake City chalk.

Arizona, based on series trends.


UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have covered 3 of last 4 in series, but Sanchez on 4-8 spread skid last 12 since early 2015, and 1-4 last five away from home. Rocky Long 10-2 last 12 vs. spread against MW foes.

SDSU, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD...Tree off of a beatdown loss at Washington, though David Shaw is 10-5 as Farm chalk since 2014. Leach got cover and almost beat Tree LY, now 13-3 as visiting dog since 2013 (though lost at Palo Alto in 2014).

WSU, based on team trends.


CAL at OREGON STATE... Cal now 1-5 vs. line last six in reg season away from home, but Dykes has won and covered last two vs. Beavs. OSU only 4-15-1 vs. line at Corvallis since 2013 (1-5-1 for Andersen).

Slight to Cal, based on OSU negatives.


UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE...Utags have covered last three in series.

Slight to USU, based on series trends.


HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE...Road team has covered last three years. Rolovich 2-1 vs. line away. Cargaher 5-2 as home chalk since 2014 but no covers first four on board TY.

Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB*|*TCU*at*KANSAS
Play Against - Home underdogs (KANSAS) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
41-15*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
1-1*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.1 units*)

CFB*|*UCLA*at*ARIZONA ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (UCLA) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday
265-164*over the last 5 seasons.**(*61.8%*|*0.0 units*)
5-3*this year.**(*62.5%*|*0.0 units*)

CFB*|*E CAROLINA*at*S FLORIDA
Play On - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (S FLORIDA) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB
41-15*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)

CFB*|*HOUSTON*at*NAVY
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday
265-164*over the last 5 seasons.**(*61.8%*|*0.0 units*)
5-3*this year.**(*62.5%*|*0.0 units*)

CFB*|*MIAMI OHIO*at*AKRON
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 off a home loss, winless on the season
46-18*over the last 10 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
2-2*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.2 units*)

CFB*|*TOLEDO*at*E MICHIGAN
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (TOLEDO) excellent passing team - averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game
43-7*over the last 5 seasons.**(*86.0%*|*0.0 units*)
4-2*this year.**(*66.7%*|*0.0 units*)