Saturday 10/25/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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CHRIS JORDAN

My Bonus Play for college football is Saturday's SEC clash between South Carolina and Auburn, as I'm laying the points with last year's national runner-up against what is a bad Gamecocks team that will struggle to keep pace.

Auburn has had time to recoup from a loss to No. 1 Mississippi State two weeks ago. The Tigers know their best shot at capturing the SEC West title, moving into the conference championship game and making the College Football Playoff is not only winning out the rest of the season, but winning by impressive margins.

I still think Auburn has one of the most dangerous teams in the country, and it's catching the Gamecocks at the right time, as South Carolina is in after a two-game losing streak in SEC play. The Gamecocks haven't been anything close to the team
that defeated Georgia back in September.

South Carolina lost by one at home to Missouri, went to Kentucky and lost by seven and arrive after a 41-10 thrashing of Furman. I'm really not sure that was the right tune-up game for this one, and will be outclassed in every facet of the game.

Auburn has dominated this series, leading 9-1-1. The teams haven't met since 2011, but that won't sway me, or worry me one bit. Plus, South Carolina is an ATS, having lost six of eight to bookies with a suitcase in hand, and five of six in conference play and four straight overall.

Auburn, meanwhile, is in on a bevy of ATS win streaks, including 10-1 at home AND in conference play, 10-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 5-1 in the month of October and 14-3 overall. The Tigers have also covered five of the last six meetings.

2* AUBURN

 

[boomersooner18]

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Thanks for all you do

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GABRIEL DUPONT

Now on to my Bonus Play for today: Memphis (-23) at SMU

I will lay the points on the road in this one, as the Memphis Tigers are going to annihilate the SMU Mustangs, even on the road.

The SMART INTANGIBLE with Memphis - The Tigers are going to be ticked off after they lost a tough one last week to Houston, 28-24. Memphis' offense racked up 368 yards of total offense, while limiting the Cougars to just 354 yards. The problem was the five turnovers Memphis committed. This week against a weaker opponent, things will be much better.

The SMART INTANGIBLE working against SMU - I didn't think it was possible until UNLV beat Fresno State, but there is a worse team than the Rebels in college football, and it's SMU. The Mustangs have as many touchdowns as they do quarterbacks who have recorded significant playing time: four. That's sad for a June Jones-coached team. I realize Jones is no longer with the team, but this is still a program he led into the campaign.

In conclusion, why Memphis is my SMART PLAY in this game - I can see the Tigers winning this one by at least four touchdowns, as they're out to match their highest win total from the past six seasons and climb above .500 this late in the season for the first time in seven years. In the meantime, the Mustangs are still in search of their first win under interim coach Tom Mason, who took over when Jones resigned two weeks into the season.

SMU has the second-worst turnover margin in the country at minus-12, and now it faces a Memphis defense that features linebacker Tank Jakes, who leads the nation with four forced fumbles in six games (0.67 per game), and ranks third nationally in tackles for loss and seventh in sacks. This one gets ugly real quick. Lay the road chalk.

3* MEMPHIS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT DELANEY

My Bonus Play is a lookahead to Saturday, as I like the very last game in the rotation, with Arizona State laying points on the road to Washington in Pac 12 action.

I've been saying this for weeks now, that Arizona State is a real deal, and can win the Pac 12 with its revamped defense. It's gotten a little hand with the disrespect this team has endured all season. It's starting to come around, but I think this will be the week everyone will realize just how good the Sun Devils are this year.

This is a fast and athletic team, one that has become exciting to watch on defense and special teams, because you never know what this team is going to do. ASU is capable of making a big play with any of its three units on the field. And Saturday night, even on its own field, I don't see how Washington will be able to compete against the ASU's talented skill-position players.

ASU's defense has been rebuilt and has some true athletes in the secondary. It's the stop unit that is a big reason the Devils are ranked 14th in the nation, and now it meets a Washington team that is struggling to work on bowl eligibility while hoping to salvage another season with losses to Oregon and Stanford. And you can expect to see an aggressive approach, as Washington quarterback Cyler Miles is questionable, all based on whether or not he's cleared after suffering a concussion against Oregon. If not, the Huskies will turn to redshirt freshman Troy Williams.

On the other side of the ball, the Devils are working around a beefed up offensive line that has improved since last season, and that looked solid last week in protecting quarterback Taylor Kelly, who has been nursing an ankle injury. Either Kelly or Mike Bercovici have proven capable for the Devils this season. I also like the fact ASU can depend on running back D.J. Foster, one of two backs in the country with at least 600 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving this season.

With ASU controlling the Pac 12 South, and two big games against Utah and Arizona looming, there's no time to lose focus just yet. Play the Sun Devils in this one, and be sure you're buying the half point down from anything you see, as I notice the line is ranging from -3 to -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

3* ARIZONA STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Computer Sports

Saturday: Auburn -19.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Dr. Vegas

Saturday college: Toledo -17.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FREDDY WILLS

North Carolina +7 1.1* Bonus Play (12:30pm ET)

Virginia wins with their defense and they haven’t faced an offense as good as North Carolina. Both BYU and UCLA had similar QB and attacks and Virginia lost both of those games. I don’t think Virginia’s offense is good enough to cover a TD spread even though the Tar Heels have shown nothing on defense. Marqise Williams should be able to move the ball effectively enough to score some points. Virginia’s head coach Mike London has been in this spot before and I wouldn’t be surprised if North Carolina came in and won and Virginia’s season got away from them. The last two years Virginia’s talented defense has had no answer for North Carolina’s spread offense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TOM STRYKER
NCAA-F | Oct 25, 2014
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois-20½-105

Sporting a 5-2 SU record and with four of its next six games on the road, Northern Illinois won't screw around when it visits Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon. The Huskies already have one loss in the MAC West Division and they can't afford another.

As a conference guest, NIU has been a dominant force notching a solid 35-13 SU and 26-18-2 ATS record in its last 48 games. In their last 11 on the MAC road, the Huskies have posted an incredible 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS mark. Northern Illinois has pounded Eastern Michigan lately too. In their last 17 games against the Eagles, the Huskies own a proud 14-3 SU and 10-6 ATS record.

It won't take much to fade EMU. The Eagles have been one of college football's worst since 2007 notching a dismal 21-70 SU and 32-51-1 ATS mark including a pathetic 4-35 SU and 12-26-1 ATS in this set battling an opponent that checks in off a straight up win. To make matters worse, MAC home dogs in conference play are a ridiculous 13-68 SU and 25-54-2 ATS provided they arrive off a road game. If our "play against" host enters off a straight up loss and is priced as a pup of +10.5 or more, this conference trend slips all the way down to an awful 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS.

Defensively, EMU is one of the worst allowing an average of 39.6 points and 521.1 yards per game. Rest assured, NIU's high-octane offense (avg 32.1 points and 476.1 ypg) will move the football up and down the field all day long against the Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast freebies

Alabama -16.5

Ohio +10

Clemson -14

Miss St. -13.5

Texans under 42.5

Texas +10 ML +310

West Virginia +1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ultra Sports

135 Temple +7'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Temple vs. Central Florida
Pick: Temple

Edges - Owls: 8-1 ATS dogs 8 or more points with coach Matt Rhule; and also 6-1 ATS as road dogs with Rhule. Knights: 2-7 ATS as favorites of 8 or more points; and 2-5 ATS versus .666 or less opponents. The Owls added 5 and 4-star recruits TE Colin Thompson (Florida) and WR Keith Kirkwood (Hawaii) to the roster last week, both of whom are considered impact players. With UCF losing the stats an average -79 YPG against fellow FBS foes this season, the points become the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Temple

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Over 77

Both teams have solid offenses and poor defenses. ODU had a bye last week and needed it as they are new to Conference USA and not deep. The Monarchs started off 3-1 but are 0-3 and allowing over 40 points per game. ODU QB Taylor Heinicke is a senior who is the tenth best QB prospect for the NFL, according to Mel Kiper, Jr. ODU has given up sacks lately but should be fresh with a week off and motivated playing a Hilltopper team that struggles in the second half.

Western Kentucky has a solid QB and two running backs to produce points for the home team. I think we see a game where both teams reach 35 or more. ODU has been successful going for it on 4th downs and will be using their backup kicker so they may not attempt many field goals and try for TD's.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AC Dinero

Mississippi vs. LSU
Play: LSU +4

Ole Miss is having one of those majical seasons that comes once in a lifetime: or is Ole Miss on the verge of building something big in Oxford? The problem for the Rebels in this game is playing with expectations and dealing with the pressure. Oh, and another problem is winning at night at a place that I would need the internet to find out the last time they did just that. LSU seems to be finding its stride. Its a young team that has had its issues stopping the run and converting on 3rd down. But with the QB situation starting to stabilize and the young talent starting to gain some confidence and consistency, look for the Tigers to be very tough from here on out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Minnesota -5.5

Don't look now, but it is the Minnesota Golden Gophers who have ascended to the top of the West with a 6-1 SU overall mark, including 3-0 in league play. Their opponent today is a downtrodden Illinois team who enters at 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS with recent losses in each of their most recent 3 conference games. In their most recent game, a 38-28 loss at Wisconsin two weeks ago, the final score would have you think they were competitive in this contest. Nothing could be further from the truth! They were on the verge of being blown out, 38-14, before rallying for a pair of backdoor scores. At 3-4 SU, there is a school of thought that this is a desperation game for the Illini. Homecoming home dogs can be a dangerous breed. The Illini may have emotion to begin the game, as they will be wearing gray ghost uniforms to honor the performance of Red Grange some 90 years ago. That emotion will soon wear off once the Gophers begin the ground and pound mentality. That same thought pattern may also lead us to believe that last week's 39-38 win by Minnesota vs. Purdue may be a bit misleading. For the 6-1 SU Minnesota record is far belied by the fact that the Gophers are being outgained for the year by a margin of 364-348. Minnesota is averaging 222/4.8 YPR this season led by RB Cobb, who has averaged 171 RYPG in the L4G. QB Liedner balances the offense. This unit will surely have their way against an Illini run defense allowing 271/5.3 for the season and over 400 RYPG on 7.5 YPR in the last 3 games. It has been since 2010 that the Illini covered consecutive Big 10 games, while Minnesota enters on an upward bound 10-4 ATS mark and has won and covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. At a price point that is actually less than where this line was opening week, we must lay the 6 points knowing that since 1980, in any CFB game where the line is 6 or less points, the team who wins the game outright, covers over 90% of the time. A clear fade of the Illini as Defensive Dud, as Minnesota steamrolls their way to a comfortable double digit victory!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Texas vs Kansas State
Pick: Texas +10

The Kansas State Wildcats come off of a huge win on the road at Oklahoma leaving them atop the Big 12 Conference standings as the only team without a conference loss, but they should be in for a tough battle here returning home vs. the Texas Longhorns, especially if the Cats have any hangover whatsoever. That is because Texas is much improved defensively in its first season under Charlie Strong, who brought his defensive coordinator at Louisville Vance Bedford along with him. Consequently, Texas is 36th in the nation in total defense, recently holding the likes of Oklahoma to 232 total yards and Baylor to 389 yards. The Horns also have 24 sacks, so they could make life difficult on KSU quarterback Jake Waters, who is more of a game manager than a quarterback that piles up enormous yardage. Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. teams with winning home records.


Syracuse vs Clemson
Pick: Syracuse +14.5

Both the Syracuse Orange and the Clemson Tigers recently lost their starting quarterbacks, but surprisingly it has been the offense of the 21st ranked Tigers that has been affected more and that could lead to a Syracuse cover here. Clemson lost quarterback Deshaun Watson early vs. Louisville two weeks ago to a hand injury, and although the Tigers went on to win that game 23-17, they did so without scoring an offensive touchdown, scoring on a punt return and on a fumble recovery in the end zone. Then the offense sputtered again under fill-in QB Cole Stoudt last week, barely nipping Boston College 17-13. Ironically Syracuse also lost Terrel Hunt vs. Louisville, but in two games since then the Orange covered in a 38-20 loss to Florida State and then whipped Wake Forest 30-7 on the road. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in its previous game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chase Diamond

USC vs. Utah
Play: Utah Pk

This game features the 5-2 USC at the 5-1 Utah. Utah has not gotten the respect they deserve in this game as they have been overlooked all year. Coming off big wins at UCLA and Oregon State this team is for real and playing at home will be a huge advantage. The public is loading up on USC as 61% are backing them yet this line has gone from -1.5 to a PK showing us who the sharps like Saturday Night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Texas +10

Bill Snyder continues to baffle sports bettors in the role of an underdog (I took them against OU last Week), as his team off an upset win at Oklahoma and now travel home to face the Longhorns Saturday Night. Kansas State is the surprise team of the Big 12 to outsiders this season, however as usual, I am not surprised, they have had as many Big 12 wins as any team in the Big 12 in the last 4 years and Snyder is one of the best coaches in football. Have no illusions, K State is the better team here, and the Little Apple is always a tough venue for any team to play and win, just ask Auburn who barely escaped out of here on a Thursday Night in Week 3 of the season. That said Kansas State faces an upstart Texas team this Saturday off a big win.

One thing I have noticed about Texas is that Charlie Strong has done a good job of coaching this team, and with QB Ash going down early this season, Tyrone Swoops stepped in and while it was a rough start, he has evolved into a good QB and the Texas defense is stepping up as well. QB Swoopes in the last 2 weeks has thrown for 655 yards, and you can pass on K State. Texas has 5 star players all over the field, their OL is healthy, and while this line while justified based on last weeks big win, bear in mind OU struggled to beat Texas in the Red River War and I honestly feel with the balance on offense and a hot QB right now, Texas hangs tough in this one. K State is very dependent on QB Waters running the ball with success, Texas will find a way to slow him down. K State wins in a tough one here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Finn

North Carolina at Virginia
Play: Virginia -6.5

Last week's loss to Duke puts the Virginia Cavaliers in a tough spot, both in the standings and in state of mind, heading into a Week 9 tilt against the Tar Heels of North Carolina. The oddsmakers opened this game with Virginia as a 5.5 point favorite and to no surprise the money has been passed back and forth in this contest with the Smart Money backing the school with the home field advantage, moving the Cavs to a near touchdown favorite in this ACC battle.

There is no ignoring just how good Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams was last week as the Tar Heels outlasted Georgia Tech, but Marco D'Angelo believes in this Virginia defense, superior to that of the North Carolina offense, giving the Cavs the upper hand on Saturday morning.

Virginia lost control of its fate of the ACC Coastal Division lead with a 20-13 loss at Duke last week but all reports have their spirits high with a focus on one thing, and one thing only, playing better than the North Carolina crew that have won four straight in the series.

North Carolina appears to be existing in Groundhog mode, breathing in a déjà vu moment from a year ago when they broke from a four-game funk by winning six of their last seven games capped by a bowl victory. North Carolina snapped this season's four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week, but winning on the road against a good Cavs stop-unit with defensive issues is a long-shot. The Tar Heels are ranked next-to-last in the nation in points allowed per game.

Williams, who continues to carry the offense, completed a school-record 38 passes and added 73 yards on the ground. The Tar Heels have allowed at least 34 points in their last five games, a streak started when East Carolina scored basketball numbers on the porous Heels' defense registering 70 points in the win.

Not only does Virginia have an edge defensively, the Cavaliers' offense has a chance to bounce back against this North Carolina defense after scoring a season-low in points against Duke a week ago. The surface numbers are not what they seem. Virginia outgaining the Blue Devils 465-334 but failed time and again in the red-zone.

This North Carolina troupe has struggled to an 0-3 mark on the road and are giving up more than 55 points per game in their road losses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Power

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State

The line for this Big 12 matchup is heading in the wrong direction, at least in my opinion. I can see why it is, seeing as West Virginia comes off a very impressive outright win at home over previously unbeaten Baylor while at the same time OSU was hammered 42-9 by TCU. But those results work to our advantage here.....

This is a huge revenge game for the Pokes, who lost to the Mountaineers LY in Morgantown, 30-21 as big 19-point favorites. It was the first of only three losses for Mike Gundy's team in 2013, the other two coming in the final two games. So you can bet they've had this one circled in Stillwater for some time. It's also Homecoming at Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday. FWIW, Oklahoma State has won 6 of its last 7 HC games. Don't forget that the Cowboys have only lost to Top 10 teams this year, TCU and Florida State.

West Virginia is improved, but certainly not a Top 10 team. Their only losses came against Alabama and Oklahoma. But it's difficult to like them outside of Morgantown as their two road wins this year have each come by a field goal against lesser foes. I don't know if it was "home cookin'" or not, but WVU also benefitted tremendously last week from a number of questionable pass interference calls against Baylor.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Texas +10

The Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) are getting a lot of love for their 31-30 win against the Sooners last week. I believe they are overvalued because of it. A closer look at the box score shows that Oklahoma should have won, and should have won handily. It outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards. It missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal late that would have given it the victory.

That Oklahoma game gives these teams a common opponent. Texas also played the Sooners, and should have won, but lost by a final of 26-31 two weeks ago. The Longhorns outgained the Sooners 482-232 for the game, or by 250 total yards. Another common opponent is Iowa State, which Kansas State beat 32-28. Texas beat Iowa State 48-45. Those two results show that these are pretty equal teams, meaning this 10-point spread is inflated.

Texas has really gotten its offense going the last two weeks now that sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has gained some valuable experience. Swoopes threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards and a score against Oklahoma. He came back against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 95 yards and a score.

As you can see, Swoopes has accounted for over 800 yards of offense and five touchdowns over the past two weeks. This is a completely different Texas offense than the one we saw in the first five games of the year. The Wildcats haven't exactly been a shut-down defense, giving up 22.5 pints and 352.0 yards per game this year.

The Texas defense has also played much better than it gets credit for. It is giving up just 346.3 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider it has faced some elite offenses in the likes of BYU, UCLA, Baylor and Oklahoma already. Kansas State has actually been worse on that side of the ball against a much softer schedule.

Charlie Strong is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. Strong is 9-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. This could be a letdown spot for the Wildcats off their big win over the Sooners as well. Bet Texas Saturday.