Saturday 10/11/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Euro Championships Sa 11Oct 17:00

Scotland

v

Georgia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		8/11	5/2	4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLAND	RECENT FORM
HWHDAWAWNDAL​ Most recent​	2 - 1	–-NLHWNWNLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Scotland have lost just one of their last seven matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Despite losing 2-1 in Germany last time out, Scotland are starting to produce some positive form under Gordon Strachan and they can take a big step towards qualification with victory over Georgia. Strachan’s men put up a decent show when going down to a Thomas Muller brace in Dortmund and are certainly not facing a team with anything like the ability of the world champions.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland
5

 

[superbeets]

Euro Championships Sa 11Oct 17:00

Ireland

v

Gibraltar

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS3		1/100	33	50	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELAND	RECENT FORM
HLNDNDHLHWAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	NDHLHLADHWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ireland have lost just one of their last five competitive matches, scoring six times in their last four fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Gibraltar have already won their first match as full Uefa members, beating Malta 1-0 in June, but they had lost 4-1 to the Faroe Islands before that and were hammered 7-0 by Poland in their first competitive game. In their six games so far, Gibraltar have scored three goals and shipped 14, so it’s hard to see a shock.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland to win 3-0
1

​

 

[superbeets]

Euro Championships Sa 11Oct 19:45

N Ireland

v

Faroe Islands

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		1/4	17/4	12	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN N IRELAND	RECENT FORM
ADALADALALAW​ Most recent​	4 - 0 1 - 1	–-HDHLALAWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Northern Ireland have conceded six goals in their last six games

EXPERT VERDICT: Northern Ireland, fresh from a fantastic 2-1 win in Hungary, can strike again at home to the Faroes. Michael O’Neill’s side don’t concede many goals, shipping just two in Chile, one in Uruguay, Israel and Turkey, and shutting out Cyprus. With that sort of solidity, they should shut out the Faroe Islands, too.

RECOMMENDATION: Northern Ireland to win 2-0
1

 

[kikin06]

Hi guys! Lee Sterling 40-50 move? Anyone kind enough to share? TIA

 

[balljas]

Will you keep a look out for ATS Underdog LOY!!! TIA

 

[Krueg]

Do you have the rest of Dr. Bob's plays? Looks like he has 18 total. Thanks!

 

[CATWINS]

roots pac 12 goy

 

[AirTroop]

Wrong thread. Sorry.

 

[CATWINS]

I would say it's ucla

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

The plot continues to thicken in this season’s race to the CFL Grey Cup Playoffs with eight of the nine teams still very much in contention for one of the six spots.

Last week in CFL action, Ottawa got things started by stunning Winnipeg 42-20 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. The total easily went OVER the 44 ½-point closing line. Calgary padded its lead in the West Division race with a 31-24 victory against Saskatchewan as a six-point road favorite in last Friday’s other game. The total went OVER the 46-point line in that contest.

Saturday’s two games kicked things off with Toronto squeezing-out a much needed 33-32 win over Edmonton as a 3 ½-point home favorite with the total going OVER the 54-point line. Hamilton maintained its one-game lead in the East in a 19-17 grinder against British Columbia as a four-point home favorite. That total stayed UNDER the 44 ½-point closing line.


Saturday, Oct. 11

Ottawa (2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS) at British Columbia (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Point-spread: BC -9
Total: 44

Game Overview

The RedBlacks notched their second SU victory of the season with their biggest scoring output of the year. They had failed to cross the 10-point barrier in five of their previous six games and on the season Ottawa is averaging just 17.1 PPG. Jonathan Williams rushed for 180 yards on two scores in last week’s win.

The Lions are fading in the West Division race with three-straight losses in which they averaged just 15.7 PPG. The total has now stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games and in 11 of 14 games on the year. BC tallied a total of 11 yards rushing on six attempts in last week’s loss to Hamilton.

Betting Trends

BC won the first meeting this season with a 7-5 victory as a nine-point road favorite. The total for that game was set at 47 ½ points. The total has stayed UNDER in five of Ottawa’s last seven games and in six of the Lions’ last eight games at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Week 16 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

Week 16 of the Canadian Football League season stretches from Friday to Monday this week, with the slate getting underway at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Friday night as the Argonauts take on the Tiger-Cats in a battle for top spot in the East division.


Ottawa at B.C.

Last 10 Meetings: B.C. 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS | OU 0-1

The Ottawa RedBlacks and the B.C. Lions will meet for the second time this season on Saturday night, with the UNDER easily paying off in their first matchup back on September 5. B.C. topped Ottawa 7-5 as an 8-point road underdog in their first meeting of the season, failing to cover the spread in that easy UNDER result for totals bettors. The RedBlacks are a CFL-worst 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

OTTAWA (2 - 11) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 7) - 10/11/2014, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road lined games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 1-0 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Trends

OTTAWA vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Ottawa is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 8 games at home
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 7
By Bruce Marshall


Friday, October 10

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

Saturday, October 11

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)
Revenge for Stoops after 36-20 loss LY. Stoops also 10-3 vs. line last 13 in reg.-season after SU loss. Stoops 7-2 vs. line since late 2013. Charlie Strong teams 9-3 last 12 as dog (1-2 with Texas).

OU, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at PURDUE
Purdue 2-5 as home dog since Hazell arrived LY and 3-8 overall vs. spread at Ross-Ade that span. Though Boilermakers did cover handily at East Lansing LY. Dantonio 9-1 as visiting chalk since 2010.

Michigan State, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at MINNESOTA
Pat Fitz turnaround at NU with wins and covers last two, and Cats 14-6 as visiting dog since 2008. Gophers have covered 4 of last 5 meetings but Gophers dogs in all of those games. Jerry Kill 7-2 as home chalk since 2012.

NU, based on Fitzgerald extended road dog marks.


RICE at ARMY
Owls 10-5 vs. spread last 15 as visitor (2-1 TY). West Point no covers 3 of last 4 TY for Monken but note Army has been home/road as well in early going (2-0 home/0-3 away).

Rice, based on team trends.


TULSA at TEMPLE
Tulsa on 4-13 spread slide since LY, 0-4 as road dog that span. Owls 12-5 vs. line since 2013.

Temple, based on team trends.


MTSU at MARSHALL
Revenge for Herd after last-play loss at MTSU in 2013. Marshall 7-0 vs. line as host since LY. Stockstill 2-1 as road dog TY but no covers previous four in role.

Marshall, based on home mark.


UMASS at KENT STATE
Minutemen have covered 4 of last 5 TY but are now 1-18 SU last 19. Kent State 0-4 vs. line TY and now 5-12 vs. spread since Paul Haynes took over LY. Golden Flashes also 1-6 vs. line at Dix Stadium under Haynes.

UMass, based on Kent State negatives.


FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE
Seminoles no covers last three away. Even with last season, Jimbo just 5-9 last 14 laying points away from Tallahassee. Cuse only 1-4 vs. line to begin 2014 and lost 59-3 vs. Noles LU, when Cuse was 5-2-1 as dog (0-1 in role TY).

Slight to FSU, based on team trends.


DUKE at GEORGIA TECH
Paul Johnson has won and covered big the last two years vs. Duke, and Cutcliffe 0-6 SDU vs. Yellow Jackets since taking over Blue Devils in 2008. Duke 0-2 vs. line away TY.

GT, based on series trends.


ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN
Badgers have won and covered handily past two seasons. Illini now 10-20 vs. line for Beckman since he arrived in 2012, 1-9 as visiting dog that span. Badgers 7-3 vs. line at Camp Randall since LY, 7-4 as DD chalk.

Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at NC STATE
Battle of ex-Florida QBs. Home team has covered the last five in this series. BC 1-7 as road dog since 2012 (1-2 in role for Addazio).

NC State, based on team and series trends.


CINCINNATI at MIAMI-FLA
Al Golden 3-11 vs. spread last 14 on board but has covered last 2 as home chalk. Tuberville just 5-9 vs. line his last 14 on board since late LY.

Miami, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at EASTERN MICHIGAN
Not much to say about EMU, now 4-17 last 21 on board and 1-7 vs. points last 8 at Ypsilanti. Bulls 3-1 as visiting chalk since LY.

Buffalo, based on EMY negatives.


MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON
RedHawks 3-7 as road dog since LY but 2-1 in role this season for Chuck Martin.

Slight to Akron, based on team trends.


INDIANA at IOWA
Hoosiers have covered last three meetings but only won one of those SU (LY). Interestingly, road team 5-0 vs. line in Iowa games TY, which makes Hawkeyes 4-12 last 16 vs. spread at Nile Kinnick Stadium since 2012.

Indiana, based on series trends and recent Iowa home woes.


BOWLING GREEN at OHIO
BGSU has won SU last two and covered last three in series. If Solich home dog note 2-0 in role since 2011.Home team.

Ohio, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS TECH
Mounties 2-0 vs. line TY, but have failed to cover the past two years vs. Texas tech. Red Raiders 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games, and Kingsbury 1-5 last six as Lubbock chalk.

WVU, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS
OSU 17-8 vs. line last 25 reg.-season road games and 39-19-1 vs. line since 2010.

OSU, based on team trends.


TCU at BAYLOR
Frogs play Bears tough, covering last two years and winning outright in 2012. TCU 7-2 as road dog since 2011, though Briles has now covered 12 straight at Waco.

Slight to TCU, based on series trends.


HOUSTON at MEMPHIS
Tigers 4-1 vs. line TY. Cougs 6-0 vs. line as visitor since LY but just 2-4 last six on board since late LY after UCF loss.

Slight to Memphis, based on recent trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UAB
UAB 4-10 last 14 as home chalk (1-2 TY). UNT 16-6 last 21 on board (2-3 TY).

UNT, based on team trends.


AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Auburn 14-2 last 16 vs. line. Dan Mullen 14-6 last 20 vs. line as host and has covered last two years vs. Tigers.

Slight to MSU, based on team and recent series trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE
WMU 5-0 vs. line in 2014 (3-0 on road). Ball, however, has covered last three meetings. Lembo 0-2 vs. line as host TY after 8-3 spread mark as host 2012-13.

WMU, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at TROY
NMSU 3-10-1 as road dog since 2012. But Troy 0-5 SU and has lost 8 of last 9 SU since late 2013. Trojans 4-14 as home chalk since 2010.

NMSU, based on Troy negatives.


ALABAMA at ARKANSAS
Nick has beaten Hogs by same 52-0 scoreline each of past two seasons. Tide has covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 vs. Razorbacks, but 1-6 last six as visiting chalk.

Slight to Bama, based on series trends.


LSU at FLORIDA
Muschamp 6-15-1 last 21 on board. Les Miles has won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Gators. Muschamp also just 1-3 as home dog with Florida. LSU 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2010.

LSU, based on Florida negatives.


TOLEDO at IOWA STATE
ISU 2-5 last seven as Ames chalk. Also no covers last four as non-Big 12 host. Rockets 13-5 as visiting dog since 2010 (though 0-1 in role TY).

Toledo, based on team trends.


OREGON at UCLA
Bruins have lost five in a row SU vs. Ducks, last win in 2007. But Bruins 41-23-1 vs. line at Rose Bowl since early 2004. Ducks now 1-10 vs. spread last 11 reg.-season games. Note Oregon 0-2 vs. line after SU losses LY.

UCLA, based on recent Oregon spread woes.


USC at ARIZONA
Cats 7-2 vs. line last nine meetings. SC 1-8 last nine as reg.-season road chalk and 4-11 vs. points last 15 away from Coliseum. UA 3-0 as home dog for Rodriguez since 2012.

UA, based on team and series trends.


WASHINGTON at CAL
Huskies have won five in a row SU vs. Cal and had covered four straight prior to near-miss LY (won by 24 when laying 29 «). Bears 4-1 vs. line TY but just 2-7 vs. line at Berkeley for Sonny Dykes (1-1 TY).

Slight to UW, based on extended trends.


GEORGIA at MISSOURI
Revenge for Ga. after loss to Tigers LY, and Richt has covered last two paybacks. But also 1-6 vs. line last seven away from Athens. Mizzou 4-0 last 4 as dog.

Slight to mizzou, based on team trends.


LOUISVILLE at CLEMSON
'Ville was 8-1 as dog past three years for Charlie Strong. But Clemson has covered four straight in 2014 and is 8-2 vs. line last ten since late 2013.

Slight to 'Ville, based on extended dog trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at NOTRE DAME
Heels 0-5 vs. line TY, 0-5 as road dog since LY. ND 5-1 vs. line last six at home.

ND, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NIU has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series, but was an upset victim in 2011. NIU 10-5 as DD chalk since 2012. Enos 4-13 last 17 as visiting dog (4-7 since 2012).

NIU, based on team and series trends.


IDAHO at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Phenom GSU now 5-0 vs. number in 2014! Vandals, however, have covered first two as road dog TY after 3-011 mark in role previous two seasons.

GSU, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE
GSU on 11-4 spread run last 145on board. But Ark State on 8-2 spread run since late 2013 and is 7-2 last nine as road chalk.

Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.


FIU at UTSA
FIU stirring, now 5-1 vs. line afer FAU win. Coker no covers last two this season.

FIU, based on recent trends.


ULM at KENTUCKY
Cats 5-2 vs. line last seven as non-SEC host. Stoops on 5-1 spread run since late LY.

UK, based on recent trends.


OLE MISS at TEXAS A&M
A&M has won and covered narrow 3-point decisions past two seasons. Ags only 4-5 last nine vs. line at Kyle Field. Hugh Freeze 31-11-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State and 9-4 as dog that span.

Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at UTAH STATE
Utags had been 0-4 vs. line TY prior to BYU win, still 8-4 as Logan chalk since 2012 (0-2 TY).

Utah State, based on extended trends.


EAST CAROLINA at SOUTH FLORIDA
USF 2-13-1 vs. line last 16 at home. Teams formerly coached by Skip Holtz!

ECU, based on recent trends.


PENN STATE at MICHIGAN
Nittany Lions won and covered last three meetings, though teams didn't meet in 2011-12. James Franklin teams at Vandy & PSU 10-2 vs. line last 12 away from home.

Penn State, based on team and series trends.


OLD DOMINION at UTEP
UTEP is just 5-12 vs. spread for Kugler since 2013. ODU 2-0 vs. line away TY.

ODU, based on team trends.


UCONN at TULANE
These teams are a combined 1-9 vs. line this season. Huskies 3-10 as road dog since 2011.

Slight to Tulane, based on UConn road dog woes.


COLORADO STATE at NEVADA
Jim McElwain's Rams on 17-5 spread run since late 2012.

Slight to CSU, based on team trends.


WYOMING at HAWAII
Norm Chow has covered last four at Aloha Stadium and is 13-7 last 20 vs. line since late 2012. Also 4-0 as home chalk since 2012.

Hawaii, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers

Following a wild weekend in college football last week in which Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M all lost, it seems like the domination of few teams in this sport no longer exists. What about squads that struggle from a week-to-week basis? This will never go away, as we’ll take a look at several clubs that are fade material heading into Week 7 of the college football season.

Texas (+14 ½) vs. Oklahoma – 12:00 PM EST

The Longhorns head into the Red River Showdown against the Sooners in a similar spot like last season, as Texas was a heavy underdog after a less than stellar start. UT destroyed Oklahoma, 36-20 to cash outright as 13 ½-point ‘dogs in Dallas, as the Horns try to duplicate that effort, but it won’t be easy this time around. Charlie Strong’s club has been in shambles since the season-ending injury to quarterback David Ash, scoring 17 points or less in each of their three losses to BYU, UCLA, and Baylor.

Oklahoma won’t be a happy bunch after suffering its first defeat of the season, falling to TCU, 37-33 as 3 ½-point road favorites. Bob Stoops has lost consecutive games only once in his career, coming way back in 1999, as the Sooners are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS since 2009 off a loss. The last three times the Longhorns have lost the week prior to Oklahoma, Texas ended up dropping the Red River Showdown, while covering just once back in 2007 as a 12-point underdog in a 28-21 setback.

Syracuse (+24) vs. Florida State – 12:00 PM EST

The Orange has been crushed in each of the last three losses to Maryland, Notre Dame, and Louisville, dropping each contest by double-digits. To make matters worse for Syracuse, it lost starting quarterback Terrel Hunt to a broken fibula for four to six weeks, as the Orange turns to sophomore Austin Wilson, who attempted just three passes in last Friday’s defeat to Louisville. Syracuse covered four of five games at the Carrier Dome last season, but the Orange has stumbled to an 0-3 ATS home mark in 2014.

Florida State finally covered a game after failing to cash in its first four victories of the season, as the Seminoles waxed Wake Forest, 43-3 as 37 ½-point home favorites. The Seminoles slammed the Orange in Tallahassee last season, 59-3 as 38-point favorites, but FSU is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 road games as a double-digit favorite since the start of the 2012 season. FSU could be in a look-ahead spot with crucial games against Notre Dame and at Louisville coming up in the next few weeks.

Tulsa (+16 ½) at Temple – 12:00 PM EST

The Golden Hurricane owns one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 42, 37, 50, 52, and 31 points in their first five games. Granted, Tulsa gave up 20 points in overtimes to Texas State in a 37-34 triple OT defeat, but the Golden Hurricane was torched for 532 yards in last week’s 42-17 thumping at Colorado State. During Tulsa’s four-game losing streak, it hasn’t covered once, while getting blown out as 18 and 24-point underdogs.

Temple is listed as a double-digit favorite over an FBS school for the first time since 2011, as the Owls own an amazing 10-2 ATS record since the start of 2013. These teams haven’t met since 1988, while Temple has allowed 17 points in its three victories, but it has lost six of its past eight home games.

Troy (-6 ½) vs. New Mexico State – 3:00 PM EST

These two squads have combined for just two wins so far, and those victories came by the underdog in this game. New Mexico State beat Cal Poly SLO and Georgia State to start the season, but the Aggies have lost four consecutive contests. The Aggies have given up at least 36 points in each defeat, while hitting the ‘over’ in five straight games. New Mexico State has actually covered in both Sun Belt games against Georgia State and Georgia Southern, as the Aggies blew a 14-0 lead in last week’s loss to Georgia Southern as 17 ½-point underdogs, 36-28.

What else is there to say about Troy? The Trojans are 0-5, which includes a home setback to FCS foe Abilene Christian as 11-point favorites, while getting outscored 114-10 in losses to Georgia and UAB. Troy has been outgained in the yardage category in all five games, but managed to cover in its Sun Belt opener as 13 ½-point ‘dogs to Louisiana-Monroe, 22-20. Dating back to 2012, the Trojans have put together a 2-8 ATS in the last 10 opportunities in the favorite role.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Contenders vs. Pretenders
By The SportsBoss

We’re nearing the midway point of the college football season and I wanted VegasInsider.com users to view my College Football Performance Ratings, which could help you down the stretch.

My ratings are calculated on a game by game basis by grading team performance across a comprehensive mix of both offensive & defensive statistics.

Currently, Auburn is playing the best of any team of the last five-plus seasons and that includes a SOS (Strength of Schedule) adjustment.

Those following college football are aware that the Tigers are ranked second in the latest AP and Coaches polls, plus they’re No. 1 in the Football Power Index (FPI) and Sagarin Ratings (SAG).

One team missing in the below table is Florida State, who is ranked No. 1 in the latest AP and Coaches rankings.

At this time, the Seminoles are ranked 56th in my power ratings but that number is certainly impacted by not having quarterback Jameis Winston vs. Clemson, but they have also struggled statistically in many of their games to this point in the season. As the season continues, I expect FSU to be listed in the group below.

Schools that I believe that are better than their record include Clemson, West Virginia, LSU, Memphis, Louisville and Virginia.

Listed below are my Top 20 schools.

Ratings

Category Performance Ratings Rankings Power Ratings
Team Off Rank Def Rank Total Rank AP COA FPI SAG Summary Ranking

Auburn 142 1 133 6 275 2 2 2 1 1 312.7 1

Alabama 137 4 124 15 261 4 7 7 2 2 297.5 2

Baylor 140 2 143 2 283 1 5 3 7 5 267.7 3

Clemson 121 21 126 13 247 8 - 25 13 18 265.5 4

Michigan State 140 2 129 9 269 3 8 8 21 14 264.6 5

Mississippi 114 31 130 8 244 9 3 4 6 3 258.3 6

TCU 122 16 138 3 260 5 9 12 18 7 257.4 7

Notre Dame 116 27 133 6 249 7 6 5 15 9 254.1 8

Mississippi State 134 6 107 31 241 10 3 6 10 8 250.1 9

Oklahoma 108 40 110 28 218 21 11 9 3 2 248.5 10

USC 122 16 97 46 219 18 - - 14 19 243.4 11

Ohio State 133 8 106 32 239 11 15 15 11 17 243.3 12

West Virginia 110 37 103 37 213 28 - - - 30 237.2 13

Nebraska 116 27 120 19 236 12 21 21 - 23 235.6 14

Memphis 106 42 109 29 215 24 - - - 36 235.1 15

Stanford 79 77 135 4 214 27 25 22 17 15 231.1 16

LSU 108 40 111 26 219 18 - - 16 16 230.7 17

Louisville 88 63 148 1 236 12 - - - 25 230.1 18

Georgia 116 27 102 39 218 21 13 10 8 10 229.6 19

Virginia 85 65 127 12 212 29 - - - 48 225.1 20


Conference Breakdown

SEC: 6
Big 12: 4
Big 10: 3
ACC: 3
Pac-12: 2
Independent: 1
American: 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 7
By ASA

Game of the Week

Minnesota (-4) vs. Northwestern – 12:00 PM ET

Before the season this matchup looked like a run-of-the-mill conference game between two average squads. Now it's a battle for supremacy in the West Division as the top two teams meet in Minnesota. Minnesota was off last week after ending a six game losing streak to Michigan on September 27th to claim the Little Brown Jug. The Gophers have a solid formula to make life miserable for opponents, leaning on a powerful rushing attack and a stout defense.They simply wore down Michigan to the tune of 206 rush yards on 47 carries while controlling the clock for +9 minutes TOP. Defensively the Gophers held Michigan to just 171 total yards, including 83 rush yards on 28 carries (3.0 YPC). QB Mitch Leidner wasn't spectacular (14-of-22 for 167 yards and 1 TD), but he managed the game well and didn't make any mistakes. This Saturday expect the Gophers will try to utilize their 24th ranked rush offense against this Northwestern defense that allowed 259 yards to Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon last week. Northwestern is off of a huge home win over Wisconsin. The Wildcats were outgained, but had an opportunistic defense (4 INT) and held UW QB's to just 12-of-29 passing and 138 yards. Offensively this squad is still a major work in progress, but it appears to be improving. QB Siemian has been a solid game manager the past couple of weeks, but is still completing just 57.4% of his passes with 3 TD and 4 INT this season. The rushing attack is off of a solid performance against UW (203 yards on 4.4 YPC) but still ranks 104th nationally in rush YPG. Even with an average offense; if the defense continues to make plays (10 forced turnovers the past three weeks) the Wildcats will continue to compete. Northwestern has won five of the last nine meetings with Minnesota outright, but the Gophers are 7-2 ATS over that span. Minnesota won @Northwestern last year, 20-17, as a 12-point underdog - continuing a trend of ATS wins by the underdog (6-1 ATS run by the 'dog). Minnesota has covered seven straight conference games. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games, but 3-7 ATS in the last 10 conference games.

Michigan State (-21) at Purdue – 2:30 PM ET

Michigan State dominated Nebraska for the better part of three quarters last Saturday. The Huskers made it close in the end, thanks to a 62-yard punt return for TD with 3:22 remaining that cut their deficit to 22-27, but MSU's defense held on when it mattered to notch the conference victory. On a day where completions didn't come easy for QB Cook (11-of-29 passing), it was the rushing attack that led the Spartans. RB Jeremy Langford was the workhorse with 29 carries 111 rush yards and 1 TD. Defensively MSU bottled up Nebraska star RB Ameer Abdullah. Though he finished with two short TD runs, he was limited to just 45 yards on 24 carries for a measly 1.8 YPC average. Overall the Huskers finished with their lowest output on the ground (47 yards) since 2007. The Spartans also made life miserable for Husker QB Amrstrong Jr, who finished 20-of-43 passing for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT and was sacked five times and hit eight more. This week the Spartans travel to Purdue as heavy favorites. Purdue notched its first conference win since 2012 with a road victory over Illinois last week. The Boilers had their largest offensive output in nearly two years with 551 total yards and 38 points. QB Appleby got the call and was very efficient, tossing for 202 yards on 15-of-20 passing with 1 TD and 0 INT. Purdue also rushed for 349 yards on 45 carries (7.8 YPC) led by RB Hunt, who had 177 yards on the ground. Granted all of this came against an Illinois defense that ranks 115th in total defense and 107th in PPG allowed. The Boilers will have much tougher sledding against this 11th ranked MSU defense. MSU has won five straight against Purdue, but is 0-2-1 ATS in the last three in the series, winning by just seven points per game. The Boilers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings against MSU. Michigan State hasn't been a 20+ point road favorite since 1997 while Purdue is 0-2 ATS as a home 'dog of 20+ points or more since 2010.

Iowa (-3.5) vs. Indiana – 12:00 PM ET

The Hawkeyes were one of three B1G teams with a bye last week after an ugly win @Purdue on September 27th. Iowa had a +264 yard advantage and +13 first downs, but didn't take the lead until late in the 3rd quarter against the Boilers. They didn't put the nail in the coffin until 5:10 remaining in the 4th. Iowa rushed for 175 yards on just 3.4 YPC while QB Beathard wasn't very efficient against Purdue's defense (17-for-37 for 245 yards). Coach Ferentz has stated that he won't make a decision on who starts at QB until later this week but all indications point to both Rudock & Beathard splitting snaps early and getting a feel for which is more effective. With little rushing success to speak of this season for Iowa, the QB play will have to get better going further into conference play. If they can't find success through the air against this Indiana defense that has allowed 323 pass YPG and 11 TD over the last four games, then it's going to be a major problem for the Hawks. Indiana ended its non-conference slate with a win over North Texas last week. It was a solid bounce-back win for the Hoosiers after getting exposed both offensively and defensively against the Terrapins two weeks ago in the 22-point loss. QB Sudfeld had a very solid outing against UNT after a horrendous performance against Maryland (14-of-37 for 126 yards and an INT) with 230 yards and 3 TD on 23-of-29 completions. RB's Coleman & Roberts carved up the UNT rush defense as they combined for 252 rush yards on 31 carries with 3 TD. The Mean Green were held to just 348 total yards and a lot of those yards came after the game was out of reach. This offense gets another chance to prove that it can move the ball against the big boys as they face this Iowa 'D' that ranks 15th nationally in yards allowed and hasn't allowed an opponent to exceed 23 points. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 SU in the last five meetings, but they lost to Indiana in the most recent game (2012) and have failed to cover the last three matchups. Indiana is just 5-11 ATS as a road underdog between 3-and-10 points and just 2-7 ATS in the last nine B1G road games. Iowa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five B1G home games as a favorite.

Michigan (-1) vs. Penn State – 7:00 PM ET

No team needed last week's bye more than the Nittany Lions after their last game performance against Northwestern. The loss to Northwestern is a bit more understandable now after the Wildcats beat Wisconsin last week, but it was still a troubling loss for PSU. Northwestern completely dominated the previously undefeated Nittany Lions. The Wildcats held PSU to just 50 rush yards on 2.0 YPC and 14 first downs. And unlike previous contests where QB Hackenberg bailed out a struggling PSU offense, he was inefficient and unproductive against Northwestern. He completed just 22-of-45 passes for 216 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT as PSU failed to reach the end zone. PSU's rush offense has now been rendered ineffective four of its five games this season as it is averaging just 3.1 YPC and ranks 116th in rush YPG. The defense remains elite but unless this offensive line starts opening up holes for the running game and creating some more time in the pocket for Hackenberg, this offense is going to struggle. They had an extra week off to work on their issues and to prepare for the struggling Wolverines. Just when it appears that it can't get any worse for Michigan, it does. Rutgers handed Michigan its third straight loss and fourth overall. Rutgers QB Nova tossed for 404 yards and 3 scores and Michigan's go-ahead field goal attempt late in the 4th quarter was blocked, allowing Rutgers to run out the clock and preserve the 26-24 victory. The running of Derrick Green was the only consistent thing about this offense, but now he's out for the year with an injury as Michigan will be challenged to replace his production this week against PSU's No. 2 ranked rush defense. QB Devin Gardner will be forced to make plays, something he has struggled with mightily this season. He looked dynamic at times last week against Rutgers in his return to the starting lineup, but he threw another costly interception. Defensively the Wolverines feature one of the top units in the country, but their efforts on defense are repeatedly offset by their inefficiencies on offense. It will take a substantial turnaround to be bowl eligible at the end of the season. After losing nine straight to the Wolverines from 1997-2007, Penn State is 4-0 SU & ATS in the last four meetings - winning by an average of 16.8 PPG. Michigan is just 8-16 ATS in its last 24 Big Ten home games. Penn State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games, but the Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS off of their last nine SU losses.

Wisconsin (-25.5) vs. Illinois – 12:00 PM ET

Running back Melvin Gordon is a stud, the offensive line is elite, and the defense is great. There are a lot of things to like about this Wisconsin Badgers squad; quarterback play is not one of them - and unfortunately the erratic play at the QB position continues to bring this team down. Last week RB Gordon rushed for a career-high 259 yards and this defense limited Northwestern to just 385 yards. But QB's McEvoy & Stave combined for 12-of-29 passing for just 138 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT - two of which came in the end zone when the Badgers were threatening to score. Coach Anderson has stated that both Stave and McEvoy will play this week against Illinois, and he'll likely go with the "hot" hand. Or whoever is making fewer mistakes. Despite the bad QB play, the defense continues to step up and put this team in position to win. Wisconsin ranks 15th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 11th in scoring defense. Expect the Badgers to ride RB Gordon - who is 3rd nationally in rushing - against this Illini defense that has allowed 807 rush yards and 9 rush TD in their last two games against Nebraska & Purdue. If they can get Gordon and Co. going on the ground, that should be enough to open some holes in the passing game for Stave & McEvoy to gain some confidence. Speaking of quarterback issues, Illinois starting QB Wes Lunt will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken leg he suffered in Illinois' home loss to Purdue last week. Lunt has 13 TD and just 3 INT this season while completing 66.1% of his passes. Now the Illini will go with Reilly O'Toole, who has 1 TD and 4 INT in limited work this season. Without Lunt leading this offense, we're not sure where the points will come from. The rushing attack has sputtered to just 96.3 rush YPG and O'Toole is a major downgrade from Lunt under center. Illinois' defense has allowed 35+ points in each of its last five games and ranks at or near the bottom in every major defensive statistical category. Wisconsin has won four straight vs. the Illini and won last year's meeting, 56-32. The Badgers rushed for 289 yards and 6 TD in that game led by Melvin Gordon (142 yds, 3 TD). Illinois is 1-13 SU & 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games with a -20.4 PPG margin in those 14 games.

Ohio State - Bye Week

After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU's J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU's win over Maryland last week, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer's scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes completely shutdown the Terps. They allowed Maryland QB's to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That's a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games; so if the pass-defense continues to improve, they will become one of the most feared units in the country. They get this Saturday off before hosting Rutgers on October 18th.

Nebraska - Bye Week

Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State last Saturday in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska's defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU's QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska heads into the bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. Next up is a road trip to Evanston to face the Wildcats of Northwestern.

Rutgers - Bye Week

The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. They celebrated by storming the field at High Point Solutions Stadium and tearing down the goalpost. The win was Rutgers' third straight and put the Scarlet Knights at a B1G-best 5-1 record overall. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existant (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). There is still plenty left to improve for Kyle Flood and his staff this week as two road games loom at OSU next week and at Nebraska on October 25th.

Maryland - Bye Week

The Terrapins ran into a buzzsaw last Saturday against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It'd help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. They'll work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) during their bye week before hosting Iowa on October 18th.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-2 0-1 3-2 2-2-1
Clemson 3-2 2-1 4-1 3-2
Duke 4-1 0-1 2-2-1 1-3
Florida State 5-0 3-0 1-4 2-3
Georgia Tech 5-0 2-0 3-2 3-2
Louisville 5-1 3-1 4-2 1-5
Miami (Fla.) 3-3 1-2 2-4 2-4
North Carolina 2-3 0-3 0-5 2-2
North Carolina State 4-2 0-2 3-3 3-3
Pittsburgh 3-3 1-1 2-3-1 2-3-1
Syracuse 2-3 0-1 1-4 1-3-1
Virginia 4-2 2-0 5-0-1 3-3
Virginia Tech 4-2 1-1 3-3 2-3
Wake Forest 2-4 0-2 3-3 1-5


Cincinnati at Miami, Fla. (ESPN3, 12:00p.m. ET)
This is a must-win game for Al Golden and the Hurricanes, who have been decent at home at 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, but they're abysmal on the road. They can't afford things to go south on their home turf, too. Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel (ribs) left last week's game due to bruised ribs, and the official word is that he will be a game-time decision. If he cannot go, former starter Munchie Legaux and Jarred Evans will likely see time under center. The bigger issue is that the Bearcats lost leading rusher RB Hosey Williams (knee) last week, too. He will miss this game, and likely a few more. The Hurricanes are favored by more than two touchdowns, but with all the injuries on the Cincinnati side of the ball, and their issues on defense, it might be warranted.

Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles rolls into the Carrier Dome having covered five of their past seven ACC games, including a 43-3 stomping of Wake Forest last weekend. That was actually FSU's first cover of the season in five tries, but shows what they can do against a marginal team. FSU still needs to prove itself on the road, however, as the defending champs are just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 road trips. However, Syracuse hasn't been very good on the road or at home, nearly losing to FCS Villanova in the opening weekend, and having its doors blown off in a neutral-site game against Notre Dame, the best team they've faced to date. In fact, 'Cuse is 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a double-digit home dog and 0-4 ATS in the past four home games overall.

Duke at Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
This might be the game of the week in the ACC, and certainly is criticial in the Coastal Division. The defending Coastal champion Blue Devils are already 0-1 with a loss at Miami, and can ill-afford another setback. The Yellow Jackets look to sting Duke and keep their record unblemished. Georgia Tech is ranked for the first time in nearly three seasons, and 5-0 for just the fifth time since 1957. While it's not hard enough for Duke football this week, they had eight to 10 players become sick last week, forcing the school to bring in a cleaning crew to scrub the team's facilities. There were plenty of early takers for Duke when the line opened near six, but it has quickly fallen to three. It's interesting, too, because the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, and Duke is just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 against Georgia Tech, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Atlanta. The Ramblin' Wreck look like a solid play given their dominance in the series.

Louisville at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Louisville gets its first taste of Death Valley as an ACC member, and they look to keep helping bettors on the road. The Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their past 29 road games, and a whopping 15-4 ATS in the past 19 conference games, although a majority of that impressive streak was in the substantially weaker AAC and Big East. Clemson is working on its own impressive streak, going 5-0 ATS in the past five at home, including an absolute dismantling of North Carolina State last weekend. Clemson is also 22-8 ATS in their past 30 conference games, matching Louisville in that regard. The play might be the under here, as it has cashed in five of six for Louisville this season. In fact, the under is 17-5 in the past 22 for the Cards. For Clemson, the over is 5-2 in the past seven ACC games, but 18-7 in their past 25 October tilts, and 4-0 in their past four following a straight-up win.

Boston College at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
So much for that impressive 4-0 start for NC State, and their near-miss against Florida State. The Wolfpack had their clocks cleaned in Clemson by a 41-0 count. Meanwhile, Boston College comes in rested after two weeks off, and champing at the bit after a narrow home loss to Colorado State Sept. 27 in their previous game. These will be two hungry teams out to prove the last time we saw them was an exception, not the rule. The Eagles are a dismal 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games, but the Pack is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight at home, and 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games. The play here might be the over, as it is 4-0-1 in BC's past five conference games, and 8-2-1 in the past 11 overall. Plus, the over is 4-1-1 in their past five games against a team with a winning overall record. For State, the over is 4-1 in their past five ACC battles, and 7-3 in the past 10 overall, although they helped that streak out none by getting blanked last week for the first time since 2011.

North Carolina at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels have been unable to stop anyone lately, dropping three straight games while giving up a whopping 51.3 points per game during the stretch. That has to make Notre Dame QB Everett Golson salivate, as he looks to improve his growing Heisman resume. These teams have actually met 18 times in the past, with Notre Dame winning 16 of the meetings, including all 11 in the shadows of 'Touchdown Jesus'. The Heels are 17-point dogs in this one, and that might be generous the way they've been going. They're 3-10 ATS in the past 13 road games, 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark, and 0-5 ATS in the past five overall. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and 33-16-2 ATS in their past 51 overall in October.