Saturday 1/14/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps flying with Falcons in Saturday's NFL playoff betting action
By PATRICK EVERSON

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs gets underway Saturday, with games in the southeast and northeast corners of the country. We talk about action on those two matchups with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

Seattle is back in the playoffs for a fifth straight year, a stretch that includes winning the Super Bowl in the 2013-14 season, and losing the Super Bowl on the final play against New England the following year. The No. 3-seeded Seahawks (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) had a very uneven second half of the season, but rolled through their wild-card game last week, beating No. 6 Detroit 26-6 as an 8-point home favorite.

Atlanta, which missed the playoffs the past three years after reaching the NFC title game in 2012-13, returns this year and as the No. 2 seed is coming off a bye. The Falcons (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) won their last four in a row SU (3-1 ATS) and five of their last six in the regular season, capped by a 38-32 home victory over New Orleans as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This game has been pretty interesting because this is the only game of the four (this weekend) where the sharps have weighed in. They laid the Falcons,” Simbal said of action at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian. “This game opened 4, it (went) up to 5, and that’s been pretty sharp money coming in on Atlanta.”

Leading up to the 4:35 p.m. Eastern kickoff, Simbal said CG books could see a little more interest in the Seahawks, and in fact, the line ticked down to 4.5 on Friday afternoon.

“I think that the public might take Seattle, specifically on the moneyline, because of the pedigree they have,” he said. “But I actually would anticipate us needing the Seahawks here, because even in victory last week, they didn’t look great.”

“The Falcons are the strongest play from the sharps as of now, which prompted the move from -3.5 to -5,” Cooley said. “We do expect to see some ‘dog money at some point, so it’s doubtful this heads north much longer, but we will see when limits are raised this weekend. Right now, around 75 percent of the handle is on Atlanta.”

Indeed, Bookmaker.eu saw some Seattle cash Friday afternoon, dropping the line from Atlanta -5 to -4 over the course of an hour.


Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Open: -14; Move: -15; Move: -16; Move: -15.5; Move: -16

New England had the best record in the league both on the field and against the oddsmakers this year, going 14-2 SU and a stout 13-3 ATS to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots finished the regular season with a 35-14 smackdown of fellow playoff team Miami laying 7.5 points on the road, and the bookmakers clearly feel the Pats could put a beating on Houston in this 8:15 p.m. Eastern clash.

The Texans (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) scraped into the playoffs as the champion of the middling AFC South, then got a huge break in the wild-card round, facing an Oakland team missing star quarterback Derek Carr (broken leg). Houston posted a 27-14 home win giving 4 points to earn the trip to Foxboro.

“As you would expect, all New England money, despite the huge pointspread,” Simbal said. “There’s been very little action on Houston at all. No sharp involvement at all, it’s all public on the Patriots. When this line first opened, we took $20,000 on New England before we even took $1,000 on Houston.”

“Some bettors are certainly shying away from this one due to the large spread,” said Cooley, whose shop opened at Patriots -16. “We initially saw smart money on the big ‘dog, moving the number to -15.5 and then -15, but that’s creeping back up as we speak, at 15.5. Most of the public bets are on the Patriots, and the money handle is close to even, but slightly favors Houston at this point.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Saturday
By Chris David

Total Talk - Sunday

Wild Card Recap

Total bettors caught a stalemate (2-2) in the Wild Card round and it could’ve been 3-1 to the ‘over’ but the Dolphins and Steelers couldn’t muster up much offense in the second-half. Including those results, the ‘under’ has gone 14-5-1 in the first round the last five years.

Divisional Playoff History

The ‘under’ has gone 7-5 in the last three years of the Divisional Playoff round despite teams putting up points, an average combined score of 46.8 points per game. In the postseason between 2010 and 2012, the average was nearly two touchdowns higher (60 PPG) and to no surprise, the ‘over’ was 11-1 during that span.

Seattle and New England will both be making their fifth straight appearance in this round and they’re both in action on Saturday.

TOTAL History (2010-2015)
2015 (TOTAL 2-2) 2014 (TOTAL 2-2)
New England 27 Kansas City 20 - OVER 44 New England 35 Baltimore 31 - OVER 47.5
Arizona 26 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 49.5 Seattle 31 Carolina 17 - OVER 40
Carolina 31 Seattle 24 - OVER 42 Green Bay 26 Dallas 21 - UNDER 52.5
Denver 23 Pittsburgh 16 - UNDER 41.5 Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 - UNDER 52.5
2013 (UNDER 3-1) 2012 (OVER 4-0)
New Orleans 15 Seattle 23 - UNDER 44 Baltimore 38 Denver 35 - OVER 44
Indianapolis 22 New England 43 - OVER 51 Green Bay 31 San Francisco 45 - OVER 45
San Francisco 23 Carolina 10 - UNDER 41 Seattle 28 Atlanta 30 - OVER 46
San Diego 17 Denver 24 - UNDER 55 Houston 28 New England 41 - OVER 50.5
2011 (OVER 3-1) 2010 (OVER 4-0)
New Orleans 32 San Francisco 36 - OVER 46.5 Pittsburgh 31 Baltimore 24 - OVER 37.5
Denver 10 New England 45 - OVER 50 Green Bay 48 Atlanta 21 - OVER 43.5
Houston 13 Baltimore 20 - UNDER 33 Chicago 35 Seattle 21 - OVER 42.5
N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 - OVER 54 N.Y. Jets 28 New England 21 - OVER 45

Saturday, Jan. 14

Atlanta at Seattle (FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET)

This total opened at 48 ½ and was quickly pushed up within the first day and now sits at 51 ½ as of Friday. This game is shaping up to be your typical offense vs. defense matchup and most pundits would give the edge to Atlanta’s attack, which leads the league in scoring (33.8 PPG) and is second in total yards (415.8 YPG).

That unit helped the ‘over’ go 13-2-1 this season and that includes a perfect 8-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. Seattle’s defense is ranked second in scoring (17.5 PPG) but the unit isn’t on the same level as previous seasons and key injuries have taken its toll on the group.

While Atlanta’s offense is great, the same can’t be said for a defense. The unit allowed 25.4 PPG this season and the numbers were surprisingly worse at home (27.8 PPG). Seattle’s offense put up 26 at home against Detroit last week in the Wild Card round but its overall road numbers (15.9 PPG) this season haven’t been great.

The Seahawks have produced a 4-4 total mark away from home this season and that includes a 2-1 ‘over’ mark when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Followers of this year’s “Total Talk” column should be well aware of the “Coast to Coast” angle, which went 15-5 to the ‘over’ this season and is 26-10 (72%) the last two seasons.

Bettors leaning to the ‘under’ on Saturday could be going with “familiarity” angle since Atlanta’s head coach Dan Quinn is a disciple of Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. The pair met earlier this regular season on Oct. 16 from Seattle and the ‘Hawks rallied for a 26-24 victory and the ‘over’ (45 ½) connected. Including this result, the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between the pair which includes a playoff matchup in 2013.

That was the first postseason for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and also his first trip to the Divisional Playoffs. Since that game, he’s been there four times and the Seahawks have averaged 26.5 PPG.

2016 – Seattle 24 at Carolina 31
2015 – Seattle 31 vs. Carolina 17
2014 – Seattle 23 vs. New Orleans 15
2013 – Seattle 28 at Atlanta 30

Wilson’s counterpart Matt Ryan has played in five playoff games in his career and his only win came against the Seahawks (listed above). The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in those games. Ryan takes a lot of heat for his postseason record but bettors should note that all four of the teams he lost to went on to the Super Bowl that season and two of them won (Packers, Giants) and the other two just missed (Cardinals, 49ers).

Playing with rest certainly helps and Atlanta has taken advantage of the week off over the years. Since Ryan joined the team in 2008, the Falcons have gone 7-2 when playing with rest and the offense averaged 29.3 PPG which produced a 5-4 mark.

Fearless Prediction: I’m going to stay away from the game ‘over’ (51 ½) because I can see Seattle trying to establish the run again like they did last Saturday. Wilson’s numbers on the road this season aren’t great and that will keep me away from the total but I will step in with a play on the Atlanta Team Total ‘over’ (28 ½) in this spot, based on their consistency all season.

Houston at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

As of Friday, bettors are leaning to the ‘under’ in the late-night game from Foxborough. The total opened 46 and has dropped to 44 ½. Temperatures are expected be in the mid-twenties but no precipitation is in the forecast.

Many believe that QB Tom Brady is the horse pulling the New England cart and while that’s true, the Patriots defense has been one of the biggest surprises this season. The unit ranked eighth in total yards (326.4) and first in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), which was the third best effort ever under head coach Bill Belichick. What’s more impressive is that they produced those results after trading two of their better players in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. The opponents certainly haven’t top notch and most believe Houston isn’t either.

The Patriots were tied as the second best ‘under’ team in the NFL this season with a 10-6 mark. Three of those results did occur without Brady and one of them came against Houston in Week 3. The Patriots blanked the Texans 27-0 at home behind its third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Texans controlled the clock and outgained New England in the loss but three turnovers led to 17 points and that was the game.

Houston enters this game off a 27-14 Wild Card win over Oakland last week and that offensive effort was tied for the most this season. The Texans have struggled on the road this season (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) and their 14.8 PPG is ranked second worst in the league. Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 9-6-1 this season, 4-3-1 on the road.

The Texans do have the best total defense (295.5 YPG) in the league and they have a head coach in Bill O’Brien that’s familiar with the Patriots.

New England is 6-2 all-time against Houston and the Texans have only managed to score a total of six points in the last two encounters, both ‘under’ winners. Belichick and company will be playing with rest in this spot and the Patriots did lose at home off the bye this season. In Week 10, they surrendered a 31-24 decision at home to Seattle and the ‘over’ (49.5) connected in that game.

While that could be alarming for some, make a note that the Patriots have crushed in this round of the postseason lately. In the last five appearances in the Divisional Playoffs, New England is averaging 38.2 PPG and not surprisingly the 'over' has gone 5-0.

2016 - New England 27 vs. Kansas City 20 (Over 44 ½)
2015 – New England 35 vs. Baltimore 31 (Over 47 ½)
2014 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 (Over 51 ½)
2013 - New England 41 vs. Houston 28 (Over 50)
2012 – New England 45 vs. Denver 10 (Over 50 ½)

This will be Houston’s third trip to the Divisional Playoff round and seventh playoff game in franchise history. The total has gone 3-3 during this span.

Fearless Prediction: The Patriots were listed as double-digit favorites four times this season. They won all of those games and the ‘under’ in cashed in every contest as well. They allowed 10.8 PPG in those games, all wins, and I believe they do the same on Saturday. I’m going to agree with the early money and back the ’under’ (44 ½) plus I’ll take the Houston Team Total ‘under’ (14 ½) as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Divisional
By Micah Roberts

When looking at the large spread for Saturday night's AFC divisional playoff game with Houston visiting No. 1 seed New England, most get the feeling that the Patriots as 16-point favorites is way over-inflated with up to six points of value.

However, the majority of bettors don't seem to care how large it is and have made it the most bet upon game of the weekend, and they're not taking the 'value'.

It's amazing to see tight spreads on three other divisional playoff games, but have the entire betting community gravitate towards laying the Patriots at a higher number than either of their two home playoffs games were during an undefeated 2007 season.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have taken in 48 percent of their overall point-spread action between the four playoff games on the Houston-New England game and he Patriots are 96 percent of that action. CG Technology books are seeing the same thing.

"It's been all Pats," said CG's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We have like a 5-to-1 (cash) ratio on them."

Despite the higher number, it's hard to argue with the public reasoning. All season long the Patriots have been covering inflated numbers and finished with a 13-3 ATS record. That's a good enough reason alone, but what is icing on the cake for bettors to force a bet is Houston on the road with Brock Osweiler. The Texans won only two games on the road and one of the losses was a 27-0 Week 3 loss at New England who were playing without Tom Brady.

The low opening number Sunday in Las Vegas was -14.5 at the Westgate SuperBook and Wynn Resort and it number didn't last long. MGM Resorts opened with the highest number and still got immediate action.

"We took a big play at -16 (from respected face) and just moved quickly to -17 (Even)," MGM Resorts VP Jay Rood said Sunday night. MGM was showing -17, +105 on Friday afternoon. It's the highest number in town with most books ranging from -15.5, 16 or -16.5.

The total has dropped from 46.5 down to 44.5. The wind funneling through Gillete Stadium won't be an issue -- highest expected 7 mph, but the wind chill at 19 degrees makes it cold.

William Hill's next most wagered upon game has been Saturday's early game with Seattle visiting Atlanta. They've had 23 percent of the weekend NFL action on the game with 80 percent of the spread cash wagered on the Falcons which has moved the line from Falcons -3.5 up to -5.

The Falcons have padded their ratings while riding a four game winning streak against defenses of the Rams, 49ers, Panthers and Saints. They've moved a full point, but did they really pass Seattle on the rating chart? That's what the spread is saying.

The thing that really stands out is the Falcons total, which has been bumped up from 48.5 to 51.5. The average Falcons score this season has been 33-25, which has aided all eight home games and 13 of 16 overall to fly Over the total. Only seven teams in the league allowed more yards than the Falcons defense and only five teams allowed more scoring (25.4).

Part of the reason the top two most handled games is because they're the first two games. The average Joe does all his variation of wagers one day at a time. It's either a re-boot at the AMT if losing or re-investing the winnings after cashing on a good day. I mention that just because, clearly, the best two games of the weekend happen on Sunday. After all the wagering has been made, I'd lay -300 that the Packers/Cowboys game will be the highest handled of the weekend.

William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the Packers-Cowboys game could end up being the highest handled but cautioned.

"It depends on what happens in Saturdays games. Our two biggest decision are Saturday and if we lose both, Sunday's handle will be through the roof. But if we win both games, action will be far less on Sunday. Our entire weekend depends on what happens Saturday because we're loaded on the Falcons and Patriots. If those get there, we'll get buried because both Sunday games have two-way action."

Bogdanovich said his books have to win at least one Saturday game to have a chance at winning for the weekend. Last week the favorites went 4-0 ATS.

Sunday's early game has the Steelers riding an eight-game win streak (6-1-1 ATS) into Arrowhead Stadium to play the second-seeded Chiefs, where there a 70 percent chance of rain and a wind chill of 25 degrees. Freezing rain is what the weather guys are calling it. Winds are in the 6-11 mph range. Sounds like Le'Veon Bell might be busy. The Westgate has a prop on Bell scoring a TD with Yes being -135.

Update: Weather is expected to be so bad, that the NFL made a time change to 8:20 pm PT for public safety.

William Hill has 61 percent of its cash so far on the Chiefs as well as 53 percent of the tickets written. The Westgate opened the streaking Steelers as a 2.5-point road favorite and sharps quickly pushed the Chiefs to a 2-point favorite. The Westgate was showing Chiefs -1 on Friday, and their total has fallen from 46.5 down to 43.

"This is a sharp versus public game," said CG's Simbal. "The public is on the Steelers money-line and the sharps like KC. I'd bet this game eventually goes to pick 'em."

The Cowboys opened as 4-point home favorites and have been bet up to -5. The Cowboys come in on 1-5 ATS run while the Packers have won seven straight (6-1 ATS), scoring 30+ points in their last five games. Green Bay will be without WR Jordy Nelson, who led the NFL in TD receptions.

It's a tough dilemma for bettors to choose from. At one point, bettors cashed nine straight weeks with Dallas. But lately, those same bettors have been cashing during the Packers roll where Aaron Rodgers has never looked better -- 19 TDs, no interceptions during seven game win streak.

The total for has moved up from 51 to 52.5. Green Bay has gone Over the total in it's last five games. However, the Cowboys 30-16 win at Lambeau Field in Week 6 stayed Under 47.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks or Falcons? NFL bloggers debate who will cover in Divisional Round

The NFL Playoffs resume Saturday evening with an NFC Divisional Round clash as the Atlanta Falcons host the Seattle Seahawks in a game that's a rematch from a regular season showdown that ended in controversy. The Seahawks squeaked out the Week 6 meeting 26-24 in Seattle thanks in part to a questionable non-call for pass interference when Richard Sherman was draped all over Julio Jones late in the game.

If you're still on the fence about who to back, listen up, we've enlisted the help of those who know these teams best to persuade you. Mark Lathrop, of Seahawks blog Field Gulls and Aaron Freeman of Falcons blog, FalcFans, strap on the pads and debate who will cover the spread in Saturday's first NFL Divisional playoff game.

WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL COVER

Mark Lathrop is a contributor for Seahawks blog Field Gulls and also writes for Sportsbookreview.com. You can follow them on Twitter @FieldGulls and @mlathrop3.

Seattle is Always a Live Dog with Russell Wilson at QB

This is just the third time that the Seahawks have been listed as an underdog this season, with the first being a trip to Foxboro as a 7.5-point road underdog. That turned out well for us, as the Seahawks won outright in one of the more satisfying games of the season for Seahawks fans. This team thrives playing with a chip on its shoulder and low draft picks and UDFA signings such as Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin have climbed the “Always Compete” ladder to be stars in the system that Pete Carroll has set up. This competitive environment lends itself well to playing up to a favored opponent. This team is ready to atone for last year’s 0-31 first half start in the divisional round against Carolina last year.

The Seahawks will get Matt Ryan Off His Spot

In the Seahawks win in Week 6 against Atlanta the Hawks sacked Matt Ryan 4 times. They’ll need to repeat that performance this week to beat Atlanta again, but fortunately for them their defensive line is playing as well as ever. Although it was Cliff Avril and Cassius Marsh that recorded sacks the last time these teams played, look for DE Frank Clark to continue to reap the havoc he’s been causing of late. Clark is drawing double teams on a line that includes Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril – Matty Ice better grow eyes in the back of his head.

The Trend is Our Friend, Again

Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games and 1-5 ATS in their last six home playoff games. The road team has dominated this match up ATS, going 4-1 in the last 5. Also, the underdog has covered the spread in seven of the last ten meetings between Atlanta and Seattle. Julio Jones put up 7 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown with Richard Sherman shadowing him in Week 6, and that is likely to happen again. If Seattle can win SU while allowing Atlanta’s greatest offensive threat to have success, keeping this game close is more probable than not. I’m expecting a nail-biter.


WHY THE FALCONS WILL COVER

Aaron Freeman is the founder of FalcFans and co-host of the Locked on Falcons podcast. You can follow them on Twitter @falcfans and @lockedonfalcons.

Too Much Firepower

The Falcons simply have too many weapons at their disposal. While most attention falls on Julio Jones, and rightly so, the Falcons have been able to spread the ball around to their other playmakers to great success in 2016. The team is 5-0 in games where Jones is held to 60 or less receiving yards and 2-0 when Jones has been held out altogether due to injury this season. This is further evidenced by the fact that Matt Ryan’s passer rating is higher when throwing to wide receivers not named Jones. In 129 targets to Jones, his rating equals 103.8. To his bevy of other outside options, including Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy, Ryan’s passer rating reaches 120.4 on 232 combined targets. And that doesn’t include his 122.7 rating on throws to running backs and tight ends.

No Earl Thomas

In relation to the Falcons abundance of weapons, the injury to free safety Earl Thomas leaves the Seahawks secondary very vulnerable. In the past six games since Thomas’ injury, the Seahawks have given up six plays of 20 or more yards in the deep middle of the field. That’s the same number they had given up in their previous 23 games with a healthy Thomas in that same area. This is an area of the field the Falcons can exploit with players like Jones along with Taylor Gabriel.

Fast Start at Home

The Seahawks have generated just one first-quarter touchdown in all eight of their road games this season. Meanwhile the Falcons have scored a total of 11 touchdowns in the opening quarter in their eight home games this year. In fact the Falcons lead the league in points generated in the first quarter (92) and first half (172) this year regardless of venue. Should both teams start off as they usually have this season, the Falcons could get out to a big lead that the Seahawks won’t have be abler to overcome.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Texans or Patriots? NFL Bloggers debate who will cover in Divisional Round

The NFL Playoffs continue Saturday night with an AFC Divisional clash in the Northeast as the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in a game that's a rematch from the regular season and features the largest playoff spread in 19 years. The Patriots won the Week 3 meeting 27-0 on the same field, despite having to start their third-string quarterback and this time around it's the "Golden Boy's" turn under center.

If you're still on the fence about who to back, listen up, we've enlisted the help of those who know these teams best to persuade you. Texans blogger Steph Stradley, of the Houston Chronicle and Rich Hill of Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit, strap on the pads and debate who will cover the spread in Saturday night's AFC Divisional game.

WHY THE TEXANS WILL COVER

Stephanie Stradley is a Texans blogger for the Houston Chronicle. You can follow her on Twitter @StephStradley.

Texans Defense

In an offense-oriented league, defensive teams can go a bit under the radar in terms of value. The Texans defense may be underrated given how their offense and special teams put them in bad situations over the course of the season. If the Texans offense and special teams play even an average game, that can keep the defense fresh and make some plays. They have seemed to get stronger as the season progressed, particularly on run defense.

Keep the Game Close Strategy

The Texans over the course of the season have won some close games and lost some close ones. Saturday's spread is a big number for a team whose main strategic goal is to keep a game close with their defense and steal it in the 4th quarter. This is part of the reason why all sorts of data rates the Texans low yet they won more games than their numbers would suggest.

Strength of Schedule

By the end of the season, you can see Actual Strength of Schedule data. The Patriots faced the easiest schedule in the league and the Texans faced the 11th most difficult. Some focusing on the Texans being in the AFC South and having an easy road to the playoffs discount their chances altogether. The Texans were a team who did sweeping changes in the offseason, so sometimes those are the teams that click by the end of the season.


WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL COVER

Richard Hill is the managing editor at Pats Pulpit. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @patspulpit and @PP_Rich_Hill.

The Patriots now have QB Tom Brady at the helm

New England faced the Houston Texans with third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center back in week 3, and yet the Patriots still won 27-0. Brissett was playing in the third NFL game of his young career and is nowhere near as talented as veteran QB Tom Brady. Brady is back under center and playing better than ever. If the Patriots could win 27-0 with a rookie quarterback that suffered a large enough hand injury halfway through the game to get placed on the injured reserve, then the Patriots should be able to cover the spread with Brady. We also have to note that WR Julian Edelman produced more yards from scrimmage over the final eight games of the year than any other receiver in the league.

The Patriots defense is playing better than ever before

In week 3, the Patriots started Jamie Collins and Jonathan Freeny at linebacker. Neither player is active for the Patriots this week; Collins is in Cleveland and Freeny is on the injured reserve. Second Team All Pro LB Dont'a Hightower did not play against Houston earlier in the year, and neither did CB Eric Rowe (had an ankle injury) or LB Kyle Van Noy (still with the Lions). The Texans might rank 1st in the league in yards allowed, but the Patriots rank #1 in points allowed- and that matters most when it comes to the spread.

The Patriots special teams are far superior

The Texans special teams unit ranks last in the NFL, while the Patriots rank in the top ten. Don't be surprised if the Patriots are going to win the yardage battle all day. Houston will struggle to move the ball on both offense and special teams, while the Patriots returnmen are going to set up short fields for Brady and the offense. Add in K Stephen Gostkowski's return to dominance and the Patriots have a clear advantage in all three phases of the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks at Falcons
By Brian Edwards

Atlanta (11-5 straight up, 10-6 against the spread) is the No. 2 seed in the NFC and is back in the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. If the top-seeded Cowboys beat Green Bay, this will be the last time the Falcons play at the Georgia Dome, as they’re set to move into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium down the street next season. Seattle is returning to Atlanta where it was eliminated from the NFC semifinals during Russell Wilson’s rookie campaign.

How They Got Here

Seattle (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) advanced by knocking off Detroit 26-6 as a nine-point home favorite last week. The 32 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 45.5-point total. The Seattle defense held the Lions to 231 yards of total offense, limiting them to a pair of Matt Prater field goals from beyond 50 yards. Cliff Avril had a pair of sacks to bring his season total to a team-high 13.5, while Michael Bennett had one sack for the third consecutive game. Nevertheless, Pete Carroll’s team went into the fourth quarter leading by only four. A 27-yard field goal by Steven Hauschka extended the lead to 13-6 with 14:12 remaining. Thomas Rawls, who finished with 161 rushing yards on 27 carries, scored on a four-yard TD run to put the Seahawks in front of the number midway through the fourth quarter. Wilson completed 23-of-30 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, including a 13-yard scoring strike to Doug Baldwin to put the game on ice with 3:36 left. Baldwin hauled in 11 receptions for 104 yards.

Seattle won the NFC West thanks to a defense that ranks third in the NFL in scoring, holding opponents to 18.2 points per game. The Seahawks are fifth in the NFL in total defense, seventh against the run and eighth versus the pass. They are led veteran LB Bobby Wagner, who led the NFL in tackles with 168.

Wilson started all 16 games, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 4,219 yards with a 21/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Baldwin had 94 receptions for 1,128 yards and seven TDs, while Jimmy Graham brought down 65 catches for 923 yards and six TDs. Without Marshawn Lynch, the running game struggled. Rawls averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in nine regular-season games, but Seattle had to be encouraged by his 161-yard effort last week.

Atlanta rode the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (33.8 PPG) and the hot right hand of veteran QB Matt Ryan to win the NFC South. Ryan, who had 90/1 odds to win NFL regular-season MVP honors to start the year, is now an enormous -500 ‘chalk’ to take down the award. This is after Ryan endured the worst season of his nine-year career in 2015 when he had a 21/16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Boston College product and former first-round pick bounced back by posting career-high numbers in passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9%) and TD passes (38) while throwing a career-low seven interceptions. Ryan became the first QB in NFL history to throw TD passes to 13 different players in a season.

Julio Jones has enjoyed another remarkable campaign, making 83 catches for 1,409 yards and six TDs in 14 games. The bye week certainly was beneficial for Jones, who missed back-to-back games in mid-December with turf toe. Mohamed Sanu has proven to be an excellent acquisition by GM Thomas Dimitroff. The former Bengal had 59 receptions for 653 yards and four TDs in 15 games. Taylor Gabriel, who was released by the Browns during training camp, was another outstanding pickup. He had 35 grabs for 579 yards and six TDs in 13 games. Gabriel missed the regular-season finale (foot), a 38-32 home win over New Orleans, but he’s good to go vs. Seattle.

You can’t have a high-octane offense without balance and Atlanta has a pair of dynamic running back to compliment its aerial attack. Devonta Freeman started all 16 games, rushing for 1,079 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He also has 54 receptions for 462 yards and two TDs. Tevin Coleman missed three games with an injury but still produced 520 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 4.4 YPC average. Like Freeman, he’s excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield, pulling down 31 catches for 421 yards and three TDs.

Atlanta starts four rookies on defense, including its top two tacklers. Deion Jones, a LB out of LSU who was a second-round choice, has made a team-high 75 tackles to go with 33 assists, 11 passes defensed, one forced fumble, three interceptions for 165 return yards and two TDs. Keanu Neal, the team’s first round pick from Florida, has 72 tackles, 34 assists, nine passes defensed, five forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and two interceptions. Brian Poole, another Gator rookie who somehow went undrafted, has started nine games and played in all 16. He has 43 tackles, 16 assists, 10 passes defensed, two fumble recoveries, one sack and one interception.

The Falcons’ first-round pick in 2015 was DE Vic Beasley, who was an immense disappointment as a rookie. However, the Clemson product enjoyed a breakout campaign by recording an NFL-best 15.5 sacks. Beasley also had six forced fumbles and one fumble recovery for a TD.

Series History

Atlanta beat Seattle four consecutive times from 2007-2013. Since then, however, the Seahawks have won back-to-back games in this rivalry, including a 26-24 win on Oct 16. Even though it was a loss, this is the game where the Falcons showed me they were legit this season. They easily covered the number as seven-point road underdogs, while the 50 combined points went ‘over the 45.5-point tally.

Dan Quinn’s team trailed 17-3 at intermission, only to outscore Seattle 21-0 in the third quarter. With a 24-23 advantage in the fourth quarter, Ryan was intercepted by Earl Thomas with 3:48 remaining. The Seahawks would get into field-goal territory for Hauschka, who buried a 44-yarder to give them the lead with 1:57 left.

After three straight incompletions from its own 25, Atlanta tried to go deep to Jones on fourth-and-10. Ryan put the ball right on the money and Jones was poised to make the catch in Seattle territory, but Richard Sherman grabbed his arm and basically tackled him. No flag came of it, however, and the Seahawks won the nail-biter.

Ryan connected on 27-of-42 throws for 335 yards and three TDs with one interception. Jones had seven catches for 139 yards and one TD. Meanwhile, Wilson completed 25-of-37 passes for 270 yards, while Graham had six receptions for 89 yards. Avril had a pair of sacks for the winners.

Four years ago, these clubs met at the Ga. Dome with a spot in the NFC Championship Game at stake. Wilson orchestrated a frenetic comeback in the fourth quarter, rallying his team from a 27-7 deficit into the lead on Lynch’s two-yard TD run with 31 seconds left. Wilson had scored on a one-yard TD run at the 13:01 mark to make it 27-14. Next, he found Zach Miller for a three-yard TD pass to trim the deficit to 27-21. However, the Falcons quickly moved into position for a game-winning field goal after Lynch’s go-ahead TD run. Matt Bryant, who has led all NFL kickers in points this year, buried the 49-yarder with eight ticks remaining to give his team a 30-28 win. Seattle did get the money, though, as a 2.5-point underdog.

Wilson threw for 285 yards and two TDs with one interception, while Ryan had 250 passing yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. Wilson also rushed for 60 yards and one TD on seven attempts.

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings.

Playoff History

Atlanta is in the postseason for the 13th time in franchise history. The Falcons have only been to one Super Bowl, getting routed 34-19 by Denver in January of 1999. I was in the stands at the NFC Championship Game four years ago when they raced out to a 17-0 lead over San Francisco. However, the 49ers would rally to win 28-24, stopping a fourth-down play with Atlanta just 10 yards away from the wining score in the final minute.

Atlanta owns a 3-2 record in five postseason games at the Ga. Dome. Ryan was only at the steering wheel for one of those, the aforementioned triumph over Seattle. The franchise signal caller is just 1-4 in five playoff games.

Seattle owns a 16-14 record in 30 playoff games. This is the team’s fifth consecutive trip to the postseason. Since the loss at Atlanta four years ago, Seattle has won seven of nine playoff games, including a 43-8 win over Denver at Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2 of 2014. The Seahawks returned to the Super Bowl a year later, only to drop a gut-wrenching 28-24 decision to New England when Wilson was intercepted at the goal line in the final minute.

Line Movement

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a four-point favorite with a total of 49.5 last Sunday morning. In less than three hours, the total was up to 51. By Tuesday afternoon, it was adjusted to 51.5 where it remained as of early Friday night.

As for the side, it moved to 4.5 by Sunday afternoon and was up to five on Tuesday night. Then on Friday, it dipped to 4.5 and briefly was at four before coming back up to 4.5 as of early Friday night.

The Seahawks were available on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180). For first-half bets, the Falcons were favored by three (with a -115 or -120 price at most spots) with a total of 26 points.

Handicapper’s Corner

Kevin Rogers had this take on Saturday’s showdown: “This is an especially big game for Matt Ryan, who has lost four of five career playoff contests. Coincidentally, Ryan’s only playoff victory came in the wild, last-minute win over the Seahawks in the 2012 divisional round. It’s been a long time coming for Ryan and the Falcons, who haven’t reached the postseason since 2012, facing a Seattle team that was held to 10 points or less four times on the road this season.

Props

Sportsbooks have the following totals for Wilson: Completions (23.5, -115 odds either way), Passing yards (268.5, -115 either way) and TD passes (1.5, ‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +120). Baldwin’s totals are 6.5 for receptions and 76.5 for receiving yards, while Graham’s are 4.5 and 57.5.

Ryan’s totals look like this: 24.5 for completions, 290.5 for passing yards and 2.5 (‘under’ -165, ‘over’ +120) for TD passes. Jones’s numbers are 6.5 for completions and 97.5 for receiving yards.

There are adjusted line for gamblers who are extremely bullish on one side (or total) over the other. For those digging Seattle, it can be had at -3.5 points for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240). On the flips side, the Falcons can be had at -14.5 for a +280 payout. Bettors can get on the ‘over’ at 58.5 points for a +210 return, or they can go ‘under’ 44.5 for a +210 payout.

Future Odds

Atlanta has the third-shortest odds to win Super Bowl LI, where it is available for a +750 return (risk $100 to win $750). Seattle has the next-to-longest odds (14/1) at the offshore book. The Falcons have +250 odds to win the NFC, while the Seahawks are at +525. Ryan has the third-shortest odds (12/1) to win Super Bowl LI MVP honors, while Wilson has 20/1 odds to win the same award. Freeman (35/1), Jones (35/1), Rawls (75/1), Baldwin (100/1), Vic Beasley (200/1), Sherman (250/1), Bennett (250/1), Gabriel (250/1) and Sanu (500/1) are also on the board.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Chris David pointed out this nugget to me. The four teams who have defeated Ryan in the playoffs have all gone on to play in the Super Bowl. Two of those teams, the Packers in 2011 and the Giants in 2012, won the Lombardi Trophy.

-- Seattle has faced five teams that made the postseason, winning four of those contests but going 2-3 ATS. We should note, however, that only one of those five games against playoff teams was on the road, a 38-10 loss at Green Bay as three-point favorites.

-- Atlanta has played four games against teams that made the playoffs, going 2-2 both SU and ATS. The defeats came at Seattle and vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs scored TDs on a fake punt, a fourth-and-goal play, a pick-six and a pick-two. When Atlanta went ahead 28-27 late in the fourth quarter, Ryan was intercepted on the two-point conversion attempt by Eric Berry, who took the pick back to the house in front of friends and family in his hometown for the two points that gave his team the victory. The wins came at Oakland (35-28) and vs. Green Bay (33-32).

-- Both teams are missing a key member out of the secondary. Thomas is out for the Seahawks, while Desmond Trufant is out for the Falcons.

-- Ryan has only missed two starts in his entire career.

-- Ryan has only five rushing TDs in his career, none since 2012.

-- Seattle went 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this year.

-- The ‘over’ is 9-8 overall for the Seahawks, 4-4 in their road games. They saw their games average combined scores of 40.4 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ has been a monster money maker in Atlanta games, going 13-2-1 overall. The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ hit at a perfect 8-0 clip in their home games, with their lowest combined score in a home game (54) coming in a 41-13 win over San Francisco.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:35 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Texans at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The top-seeded Patriots are back from their playoff bye as New England is laying more two touchdowns in the AFC Divisional Round against Houston. The Texans seem like the sacrificial lamb on Saturday as New England is expected to cruise to the AFC Championship, but Houston has won four of its past five games, including last Saturday’s Wild Card rout of Oakland.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Houston (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) captured its second consecutive AFC South title this season, in spite of a 9-7 regular season record. The Texans began the season with plenty of hope at the quarterback position with Super Bowl champion Brock Osweiler signing a four-year, $72 million deal. However, Osweiler underachieved in his first full season as a starting NFL quarterback by not throwing for more than 270 yards in a game, while throwing 15 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions.

Osweiler led the Texans past the Raiders in the Wild Card round, 27-14 in spite of 168 yards passing. The Houston quarterback connected with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on a two-yard touchdown, while Osweiler ran for a score in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach. Houston finished with an 8-1 home record this season, but stumbled to a 2-6 mark away from NRG Stadium. In four of those losses, the Texans were limited to 13 points or fewer.

New England (14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS) is riding a seven-game winning streak, while allowing a total of 20 points in its final three victories. After sitting out the first four games due to the Deflategate suspension, quarterback Tom Brady put together another outstanding season by throwing 28 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, while racking up 3,554 yards. What’s even more impressive is the 13-3 ATS mark overall, including a 4-1 ATS home record with Brady under center.

The Patriots took care of business as a double-digit favorite this season by winning and covering in all four opportunities. Granted, the Pats totally outmatched the Browns, 49ers, Jets, and Rams, but the defense yielded a total of 43 points in those victories. New England showcases its first 1,000 yard rusher since 2012 as LeGarrette Blount compiled a career-high 1,161 yards along with 18 touchdowns. Blount reached the end zone in 13 of 16 games this season, including five consecutive games with a score.

SERIES HISTORY

The Texans have had much success with the Patriots since entering the league in 2002 by going 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS. The latest setback in Week 3 at Gillette Stadium as New England blanked Houston, 27-0 in the pick-em role. Brady sat due to his suspension, but back-up Jacoby Brissett led the Patriots on three touchdown drives, while Blount found the end zone twice. The Patriots’ offense gained only 282 yards, but New England’s defense forced three Houston turnovers to hand the Texans their only shutout of the season.

Houston and New England are meeting for the second time in the postseason ever as the Patriots drilled the Texans in the AFC Divisional round in 2012 by a 41-28 count. Brady threw three touchdown passes in that victory as 9 ½-point favorites, while the Patriots grabbed a 38-13 lead in the fourth quarter. New England owns a perfect 4-0 record lifetime against Houston at Gillette Stadium with all four wins coming by double-digits.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

For the 13th time in 14 seasons, the Patriots are in the postseason as the only missed season in this stretch was 2008 when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1. Brady owns a 22-9 playoff record in his career, including a 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS mark at Gillette Stadium. New England has won its playoff opener in each of the past five seasons, while scoring at least 35 points four times in this span.

The Texans are playing in their seventh playoff game in franchise history, going 3-3 in their first six postseason contests. Houston has never won a road playoff game, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in those matchups.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook listed the Patriots at -16 on Monday afternoon, while the total opened at 44 ½. The line has slightly dipped to 15 ½ at the Westgate, but the total hasn’t moved much as William Hill has the total at 45. The first half line opened at New England -9 ½ (-120) at the Westgate, as that number has increased -10.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says it hard to make a great case for Houston, “The Texans are the ultimate outlier in this season’s final eight, ranking 26th in the league in scoring differential in the regular season while the other seven remaining teams in the playoffs were the top seven scoring differential teams. Houston’s win last week certainly deserves some scrutiny with the Raiders left with rookie Connor Cook starting at quarterback in his first ever NFL start and predictably he had a costly turnover that helped Houston generate and early lead they held throughout the game.”

From a pointspread perspective, Nelson notes where this line ranks in postseason history, “This spread is poised to be the largest playoff number since Super Bowl XXIX (1994-95 season) when the 49ers bested the Chargers, covering at -19. The last six NFL playoff favorites of 14 or more points have all covered, but prior to that, the heavy underdogs had a great run of success. New England has hosted a divisional round playoff game 10 times in the Belichick/Brady era, going 9-1 SU and covering in four of the last five.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Houston

B. Osweiler – Total Completions
19 ½ - OVER (-110)
19 ½- UNDER (-110)

B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)

New England

T. Brady – Total Gross Passing Yards
285 ½ - OVER (-110)
285 ½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2 ½ - OVER (+130)
2 ½ - UNDER (-150)

T. Brady – Will he throw an Inteception?
YES (+110)
NO (-130)

J. Edelman – Total Receiving Yards
72 ½ - OVER (-110)
72 ½ - UNDER (-110)

FUTURE ODDS

The Patriots opened the season as one of three favorites listed at 8/1 to capture the Super Bowl title in Houston at the Westgate Superbook. New England is the clear-cut favorite at 7/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $140) to win the Super Bowl, while Houston is the longest shot on the board at 60/1 odds to win it all.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steelers at Chiefs
By Tony Mejia

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-1/44.5), 8:20 pm ET, NBC

Once Oakland’s Derek Carr was lost for the season, these two became the biggest threats to New England’s quest to reach its seventh Super Bowl under Bill Belichick and eight title game in two decades. Although Pittsburgh crushed the Chiefs at home on Oct. 2, that result seems like ancient history when you consider how much more explosive Kansas City has looked over the past three months.

They’ll be the home team this time, having finished one game ahead of the Steelers despite the head-to-head loss. Kansas City enjoyed its bye week while Pittsburgh thrived in a relatively easy 30-12 win last Sunday afternoon that was clouded by QB Ben Roethlisberger injuring his ankle while being picked off on the team’s last meaningful drive. He left Heinz Field in a walking boot but was confident he’d be fine and practiced this week without incident.

Although the Chiefs will undoubtedly look to test his mobility, this divisional playoff showdown’s most important variable won’t be Big Ben’s ankle, but rather, nasty weather that forced this game to be rescheduled from its original time slot that had it set to start at noon CT. An ice storm is expected to have its way with the Kansas City area in the afternoon, so in what was described as a move made in the public’s best interest, the hope is for clearer conditions in what becomes the latest Sunday postseason start ever.

You can argue solid points over which team will be affected most by inclement weather and a slippery field, but the fact is that whoever handles Mother Nature’s obstacles best will end up punching their ticket to next Sunday’s AFC Championship game at Foxboro.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin and Roethlisberger believe they thrive in cold weather and have historically held up well in steady snow and driving rain, so they’re confident. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley called a fantastic game against the Chiefs in Week 4, but had produced an average of just 16.3 points in the previous three meetings with the team that gave him his only head coaching opportunity from 2009-11. Even if the weather wasn’t expected to be the x-factor it’s likely going to be, you would’ve likely seen Andy Reid and Haley to rely on a conservative approach utilizing short, quick passes and plenty of runs.

They figure to play it close to the vest until someone makes a mistake, but both teams have plenty of home-run hitters who can generate big plays if a defender slips and misses a tackle. Although Roethlisberger’s deep-ball threat, Sammie Coates, may be hampered by snow, ice and wind, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown can turn it upfield at any time and have proven capable of steadily gaining yardage in small chunks consistently. Bell ran for a Steelers postseason-record 167 yards against the Dolphins and has a capable backup in D’Angelo Williams that can also take some carries, so play action should wind up being an effective weapon after a steady dose of the ground game is administered.

Kansas City QB Alex Smith’s ability to extend plays and drives with his feet may be mitigated by a Steelers pass rush that recorded five sacks of Miami’s Matt Moore last week, coming from all angles and off disguised blitzes. Expect the Chiefs game plan to hinge on him getting the ball out quickly to Jeremy Maclin, rookie speedster Tyreek Hill and star tight end Travis Kelce, one of the top athletes at his position.

Defensively, Kansas City has gotten elite play out of corner Marcus Peters, the NFL’s leader in interceptions, as well as All-Pro safety Eric Berry. They’ve got elite performers like Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Dee Ford and Justin Houston healthy and set to wreak havoc, so the Steelers offense won’t have many plays where they’ll feel comfortable when you consider the level of competition and the road atmosphere that awaits.

Pittsburgh’s key to success may be getting off to another great start like they did last week, when they scored on their first three drives, matching a feat they managed in the first quarter of their win over the Chiefs. Five different defensive starters will take the field for Kansas City this time around, and the homefield edge should aid the cause in attempting to disrupt the Steelers offensive timing. Despite one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, the Chiefs are just 2-5 in home playoff games, the worst percentage in league history. The last time they prevailed at Arrowhead in the postseason came in the 1993 Wild Card round, when Joe Montana helped deliver an overtime win over Neil O’Donnell-led Pittsburgh.

Yep, that was a long time ago.

With both quarterbacks facing defense featuring feared pass rushers and talented athletes in the secondary, the expectation is that the conservative approach will reign, leading prognosticators to place this total at a very low 36.5-37.

LINE MOVEMENT

This line opened as a pick'em or with Pittsburgh laying a point at most shops, but enough money came in on the Chiefs at home that they eventually got up as high as 2-point favorites before they settled in as a 1-point chalk entering Saturday. The money line hasn't gone higher than KC -135 and has decreased down to the -120 range, so buying the point may just be the way to go rather than flirting with a push if you're riding Kansas City. The total opened at 46.5 but has moved down to 44-44.5 due to the weather forecast. For the season, both teams surpassed their projected preseason win totals. The Chiefs surpassed the 9.5 set by the WestgateLV SuperBook rather easily, while Pittsburgh climbed over 10.5 in Week 17 in that comeback win in OT against Cleveland. Both paid off as divisional winners. The Steelers paid off 20-to-21 odds at the start of the season to win the AFC North, while the Chiefs were 8-to-5 to win the AFC West. Currently, WestgateLV has Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 4-to-1 to win the AFC and 8-to-1 to capture Super Bowl LI.

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond the concerns over Roethlisberger's ankle, the Raiders are relatively healthy after last week's dominant win over Miami. The team was more optimistic about TE Ladarius Green returning from a concussion last week than they are today, so odds are he'll be unavailable going forward. Safety Shamarko Thomas has also been out wtith a concussion. Injuries could affect the return game since Fitz Toussaint (concussion) is questionable and CB Justin Gilbert, who may take his place, is dealing with a shoulder injury but should play. DE Ricardo Mathews is nursing an injured ankle. Left tackle Donald Penn, who has been among the best at his position this season, hasn't practiced and may be a game-time decision with a knee injury.

The Chiefs suffered key injuries to LB Derrick Johnson and DT Jaye Howard in December, losing them for the season. Although guys have been banged up, Kansas City has been able to get players healed up over the bye week and will have LB Justin Houston, WR Jeremy Maclin and RB Spencer Ware are healthy all good to go after getting rest. Only rookie LB Dadi Nicolas (patella) is out with a new injury.

116 DAYS AGO...

These teams took the field together for the Week 4 Sunday night game at Heinz Field and produced a laugher. The Steelers scored three touchdowns on their first six offensive snaps, piling on with an early two-point coversion that allowed them to build a 22-0 lead after a quarter, setting a franchise record. The score was 36-0 after three quarters and ended up 43-14 only because Smith hit Kelce with a short TD pass with four seconds remaining.

Pittsburgh was coming off an embarrassing 34-3 loss in Philly that remains one of the season's most puzzling results and its worst loss in 27 years, so that probably factored into the ferocity with which it took the Chiefs apart. Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes and went 22-for-27 for 300 yards while getting 178 yards from Bell, who was playing his first game after being suspended three games for a substance abuse violation.

Rest assured, the Chiefs won't come out as flat here. Ironically, Hill scored and got the most action he'd received as a rookie in that game, so it wasn't a lost cause since he became such an integral part of the offense over the final two months. Kansas City enjoyed its bye week following the blowout loss, got focused and ran off five consecutive wins en route to its 10-2 finish. Ware fumbled to open the floodgates for the Steelers, so expect ball control to be foremost on his mind.

RECENT MEETINGS (Pittsburgh 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

10/2/16 Pittsburgh 43-14 vs. Kansas City (PIT -3.5, 48.5)
10/25/15 Kansas City 23-13 vs. Pittsburgh (KC -3, 41.5)
12/21/14 Pittsburgh 20-12 vs. Kansas City (PIT -2.5, 49)
11/12/12 Pittsburgh 16-13 OT vs. Kansas City (PIT -12.5, 39.5)
11/27/11 Pittsburgh 13-9 at Kanas City (PIT -10.5, 40.5

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride with both running backs listed below finding the end zone.

Will LeVeon Bell score TD?: (-135 yes/+115 no)
Will Tyreek Hill score TD?: (+115 yes/-135 no)
Alex Smith completions 21.5: (-110 o/u)
Ben Roethlisberger passing yards 265.5: (-110 o/u)
Ben Roethlisberger TD passes 1.5: (-160 over/ +140 under)
Alex Smith TD Passes/INT 1.5: (-155 over/+135 under)
Total combined sacks 4: (+110 over, -130 under)
First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
Total points: Chiefs 23, Steelers 21.5 (-110 o/u)

STEELERS AS A ROAD DOG

Pittsburgh was favored in every road game it played this season and went 5-3 SU and ATS, winning and covering its last four outright. The Steelers were last a road dog in last season's divisional playoff round, losing at Denver 23-16 as a 7-point dog. They went 3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS as a road underdog last season, which includes the 23-13 loss in their last visit to Kansas City.

CHIEFS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Chiefs have been a home favorite in all eight of their Arrowhead contests this season, but covered just three times. Two of those win/covers did come in December, helping avoid an awful season against the number despite a 6-2 mark straight up. They were just 3-5 ATS despite winning their final six home games last season, so while they've been excellent at home under Reid (23-9), they haven't been profitable.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Divisional Playoffs betting preview: Seahawks at Falcons

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 51.5)

Matt Ryan may be the quarterback of the NFL's highest-scoring offense and a legitimate candidate to reel in league MVP honors this season, but the 31-year-old has enamored the masses with his less-than-stellar postseason play. With a 1-4 playoff record in his back pocket, Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons look to advance to the NFC Championship game for the second time in five years when they host the Seattle Seahawks in a divisional-round tilt on Saturday.

Ryan's lone postseason win came in a three-touchdown performance versus Seattle in January 2013, and he also threw for three scores three-plus years later - albeit in a 26-24 regular-season setback to the Seahawks on Oct. 16. Electric wideout Julio Jones made seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown in the most recent encounter but was left searching for a pass interference call that never came against Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman that effectively ended the game. Thomas Rawls missed that contest with a fractured leg but showed his mettle in Seattle's 28-6 rout of Detroit in last week's wild-card game by finding the end zone while rushing 27 times for a franchise playoff-record 161 yards. Another effective performance on the ground against Atlanta's 29th-ranked run defense would keep the Falcons' top-ranked scoring offense (33.8 points) off the field while opening up avenues for Seattle's play-action passing attack.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-2.5) - Falcons (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons 5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 4-point home favorites and was briefly bet down to 3.5 Sunday morning, since it has been growing up to 5, where it currently stands. As for the total, it opened as 50.5 and has been bet up a full point to 51.5.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Falcons are the strongest play from the sharps as of now, which as prompted the move from -3.5 to -5. We do expect to see some dog money at some point so doubtful this heads north much longer, but we will see when limits are raised this weekend. Right now, around 75 percent of the handle is on Atlanta." - Scott Cooley.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - FB Marcel Reece (probable, foot), WR Paul Richardson (probable, foot), DB Jeron Johnson (questionable, knee), RB C.J. Prosise (questionable, shoulder), DT Tony McDaniel (questionable, concussion)

Falcons - LB Vic Beasley (probable, shoulder), WR Julio Jones (probable, toe), CB Robert Alford (probable, knee), TE Austin Hooper (probable, knee), WR Taylor Gabriel (probable, foot), S Keanu Neal (questionable, concussion)

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U): Russell Wilson threw for only 224 yards in the victory against the Lions but was a perfect 11-of-11 for 104 yards and a touchdown when targeting trusted wideout Doug Baldwin. The 28-year-old Baldwin, who has a franchise-best 50 career postseason catches and five touchdowns in his last seven playoff games, was limited to four receptions for 31 yards in the first meeting with Atlanta. Tight end Jimmy Graham has been held to just 11 catches in his last five games but reeled in six passes for 89 yards in the first encounter with the Falcons.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 13-2-1 O/U): Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman averaged an impressive 4.8 yards per carry this season but was limited to 40 on 12 rushes by Seattle's stingy defense, which held opposing runners to a league-low 3.37 yards this campaign. Diminutive wideout Taylor Gabriel has been quite the complement to the 6-3, 220-pound Jones, using his considerable speed to find the end zone in six of his last eight games. Gabriel is expected to return from a toe/ankle injury and red-zone target Austin Hooper is making strides from an MCL sprain.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Seahawks last seven Divisional Playoffs games.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last five playoff home games.
* Over is 8-0 in Falcons last eight home games.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent are siding with the home favorite Falcons. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Seahawks (10-5) at Falcons (11-5)

Date: January 14, 2017 4:35 PM EDT

ATLANTA -- In the only previous playoff meeting between Atlanta and Seattle, Matt Ryan threw one more touchdown pass than Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and the Falcons overcame squandering a big lead to win on a late field goal by Matt Bryant.

That divisional playoff game at the Georgia Dome during the 2012 season, though, probably has little meaning for Saturday's follow-up in Atlanta.

That playoff game is the only victory in five tries for Ryan. Wilson, who was a rookie the first time, has an 8-3 postseason mark and a Super Bowl ring to his credit.

What could be of significance is the Seahawks' controversial 28-26 victory at home in mid-October when cornerback Richard Sherman wasn't whistled for a late pass interference call on Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones.

"We felt like we had a chance to win that game. Calls didn't go our way," said Falcons second-year outside linebacker Vic Beasley Jr., who led the NFL with 15 1/2 sacks. "Things could've went a different route, so we're looking forward to this opportunity."

Not having to go back to Seattle is certainly an advantage for the Falcons. They also went 4-0 down the stretch in winning the NFC South and received a first-round bye when the NFC West-champion Seahawks lost three of their final six games.

The Seattle defense, which ranked third in the NFL in points allowed at 18.3 per game, suffered a major blow with the loss safety Earl Thomas. The Falcons, with Ryan having his best season, led the NFL with an average of 33.8 points per game.

"All teams are a little different now and I'd say we're a better version of ourselves then when we played them," Falcons coach Dan Quinn said.

While the Seahawks' defense misses Thomas, it did return to form in a 28-6 opening victory over the Detroit Lions last Saturday.

Wilson, who had his career high with 385 passing yards in that playoff loss to the Falcons, appears to be the healthiest he's been this season.

Just as important, the offense found its missing ground game with Thomas Rawls rushing 27 times for 161 yards - a team playoff record.

Rawls, the replacement for the retired Marshawn Lynch, was out with a fracture in his leg when the Seahawks played the Falcons during the regular season.

"We just haven't been able to get him enough opportunities," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He just had a hard time getting rolling."

The Falcons' young defense, which has been much better against the run than the pass this season, now has something else for which to worry.

"It opens up everything for us," Seattle wide receiver Doug Baldwin said of the ground game. "When Thomas Rawls is doing that, they can't help but put another safety in the box, and then that gives us one-on-one match-ups on the outside."

Rookie safety Keanu Neal feels that he and his teammates are up to the challenge, although they were 27th in points allowed during the season at 25.4. Atlanta also lost top corner back Desmond Trufant after playing the Seahawks the first time.

"Since the bye week (in the middle of the season), the defense has really skyrocketed," he said.

"All those guys, they don't play like rookies, they don't play like young guys," Wilson said of the Falcons. "... They play fast, they play smart. They know where they're supposed to be. ... You can definitely notice that on film."

Quinn, in his second season as Falcons coach, was the defensive coordinator during Seattle's two trips to the Super Bowl. He has downplayed that as a storyline, though, and is thankful he's already faced the Seahawks once.

"I'm glad that game got out of the way," Quinn said. "... Let's hope through the years we battle a bunch of times against them. I sense that will be the case."

"It's going to be a really difficult challenge and, of course, playing there is always hard," Carroll said. "I love the job that Dan has done."

Jones, who was second in the NFL in yards receiving despite missing two games with a toe injury, should be the healthiest he's been in a while after the extra rest.

"Everybody could use a week," said Jones, who had seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown in the game at Seattle. "It's a long season. But, yeah, it will be beneficial for me for that week, especially with the toe injury I had."

The Seahawks, though, may have benefited from playing last week after their sluggish finish to the regular season.

"We're expecting a fight," said Bobby Wagner, Seattle's standout inside linebacker. "They're going to come in rested. They're going to be hungry, but we're hungry, too. We're going to come out and give them everything we got."

After missing the playoffs the past three seasons, Ryan gets a chance to show that he can win more than once in the postseason. Quinn said he told his quarterback to focus on that opportunity.

"It's all about now," the coach said. "Things that are from a while back ago, you definitely learn from it. You take those lessons and now you apply them and you are better for it."

Ryan, who has gone 137 passes without an interception, had 19 touchdowns passes to four picks at home during the regular season. Wilson had eight TD passes and eight interceptions on the road.

Ryan needs to change his playoff narrative, though.

"I don't worry about it too much," Ryan said. "One thing I've learned throughout my career is if you spend time worrying about that you are not spending time worrying about the things that are going to make a difference on (game day)."

Wilson is a Ryan fan, although he obviously hopes to outplay him Saturday.

"I think Matt Ryan's always been a great quarterback," Wilson said. "I don't think it's just this year. He's always been a guy to be able to win football games and make plays and do a lot of good things. I don't think it's anything new for Matt at all."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Divisional Playoffs betting preview: Texans at Patriots

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-15, 44.5)

The Houston Texans visited the New England Patriots in Week 3 and were demolished 27-0, a loss that was more eye-opening given that they were up against a rookie third-string quarterback making his first career start. So it's hardly a surprise that the top-seeded Patriots are overwhelming favorites in Saturday night's AFC Divisional Round matchup against visiting Houston.

The Texans won the AFC South with a 9-7 record and knocked off fifth-seeded Oakland 27-14 in the first round of the playoffs, but they are more than two-touchdown underdogs against New England. “It’s OK if we’re called the underdogs, I kind of like it,” Houston linebacker Whitney Mercilus told reporters. “Definitely get to shock a whole lot of people, so we’re looking forward to that.” The Patriots closed the season with a seven-game winning streak and have outscored Houston 54-6 in two matchups over the last 13 months, but quarterback Tom Brady dismissed the idea that they are looking past the Texans. “I don’t see any letdown from us. That’s ridiculous to think that," Brady told reporters. "I’m preparing like this is the hardest game we’ve faced all season, which it will be, and it means the most."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (0.5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 16-point favorites and that has faded down a full point to 15. The total hit the board at 44.5 and briefly was bet up to 45, before returning to the opening number.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Some bettors are certainly shying away from this one due to the large spread. We initially saw smart money on the big dog, moving the number to -15.5 and then -15, but that’s creeping back up as we speak. Most of the public bets are on the Patriots and the money handle is close to even but slightly favors Houston at this point. " - Scott Cooley.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Gillette Stadium on Saturday night is calling for clear skies with a chance of clouds and temperatures in the mid-20’s at kickoff.

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - WR DeAndre Hopkins (probable, knee), CB A.J. Bouye (probable, groin), LB Whitney Mercilus (probable, knee), QB Tom Savage (probable, concussion), CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, calf), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, elbow), G Jeff Allen (questionable, ankle), LB Brian Cushing (questionable, ankle), LB John Simon (questionable, chest), S Quintin Demps (questionable, hamstring)

Patriots - CB Cyrus Jones (probable, knee), RB LeGarrette Blount (probable, illness), TE Martellus Bennett (probable, ankle), QB Tom Brady (probable, thigh), WR Danny Amendola (probable, ankle), WR Malcolm Mitchell (probable, knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (questionable, thumb)

ABOUT THE TEXANS (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 7-10 O/U): Houston's top-ranked defense limited Oakland to 203 total yards and ranked second in the league with 193.3 passing yards allowed, but coach Bill O'Brien -- a former Patriots offensive coordinator -- admitted the unit won't show Brady "anything that he hasn't already seen." Former No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney had a sack in each of the final three regular-season games and added a pivotal interception in last week's playoff victory. Quarterback Brock Osweiler, who reclaimed his starting job when Tom Savage suffered a concussion in Week 17, threw for 168 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders and 196 yards in Week 3 at New England. Lamar Miller gained 80 yards on 21 carries versus the Patriots but managed only 73 on 31 rushes a week ago.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-2 SU, 13-3, ATS, 6-10 O/U): With the untested Jacoby Brissett under center in the early-season matchup, New England leaned on the running game as LeGarrette Blount produced 105 yards and two scores, part of his NFL-leading 18 rushing touchdowns. Brady missed the first meeting while serving a four-game suspension, but he put up spectacular numbers upon his return with 28 touchdown passes against only two interceptions while averaging 296.2 yards per game. Julian Edelman made a team-high 98 catches for a receiving corps that has been bolstered by waiver-wire acquisition Michael Floyd and expects to have Danny Amendola back on Saturday. For all the talk about their offense, the Patriots permitted a league-low 15.6 points and held six of their last seven opponents to 17 or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Patriots last 8 Saturday games.
* Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Texans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home team double-digit favorite Patriots are picking up 58 percent of the point spread action. The Over is getting 59 percent of the action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Texans (9-7) at Patriots (14-2)

Date: January 14, 2017 8:15 PM EDT

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Bill O'Brien knows all about how tough the New England Patriots are at this, or any time, of year.

That's why the former New England offensive coordinator and current Houston Texans coach knows what his team is up against when it visits for Saturday's night's AFC divisional playoff game.

"It's a big challenge. It's a team that has done it year in and year out," O'Brien said earlier this week. "Last week was only this organization's third playoff win. We've got a big challenge ahead of us.

"We've got a bunch of good guys in our locker room that are looking forward to the challenge. We know that the Patriots are a great football team. We feel like if we go up there and we practice well - we have a good week of practice - we go up there and show up and play hard for 60 minutes, you know, we'll see what happens."

History, and the oddsmakers, are both against the Texans, a 9-7 division champion that disposed of the Oakland Raiders in last weekend's wild card game. Houston has never won at Foxborough, has beaten the Patriots just once, lost 27-0 in New England - with Tom Brady out, no less - in September and has lost the last two games to the Patriots by a combined score of 54-6.

The Texans come into this one as a 15 1/2-point underdog.

They're also a warm weather team playing in the cold night air.

The Texans do bring the league's No. 1 defense into this game, while the Patriots have allowed the fewest points.

Back in Week 3, Jacoby Brissett was the New England quarterback and J.J. Watt played his final game of the season before undergoing back surgery. The Texans fumbled away two kickoffs and saw Brissett run for a 27-yard touchdown.

Now, Brady will run the potent Patriots' offense, which should be bolstered by the return of wideout Danny Amendola, who missed four games with a sprain ankle. He was back at full participation on Wednesday's practice report, while Malcolm Mitchell, out last week with a knee injury, was limited.

LeGarrette Blount, who has had a strong year running the ball, missed Wednesday's practice due to illness.

The Patriots come in 14-2 with seven straight wins and have gone 11-1 since Brady returned from his Deflategate suspension. They have spent the week doing what they always do - not saying anything even close to bad about the opposition.

"I think that they're playing really well in all three phases," New England's Rob Ninkovich said. "I think that their running game is very strong, so we have a challenge. It starts today preparing for that challenge."

Added Malcolm Butler: "Of course we won the (first) game, but teams are not peaking early in the season, so you most definitely say they got better, we got better, so time will tell."

The Texans had eight players listed with limited participation Wednesday, six of them of defense - including Quintin Demps (hamstring, game-time decision), Jadeveon Clowney (elbow, wrist) and Brian Cushing (ankle).

Brady finished the regular season with 28 touchdown passes and just two interceptions as the Patriots set the record for fewest picks thrown (two) in a season.

The New England defense, suspect when it blanked the Texans in Week 3, has gotten better and better and even traded away Jamie Collins, who had a big game against Houston.

"It's tough," O'Brien said. "They're obviously a team that lines up in different fronts. They challenge you with - not only their players, which their players are very, very good. You got (Alan) Branch and (Dont'a) Hightower and (Rob) Ninkovich and (Jabaal) Sheard and Malcolm Brown. You have a bunch of really tough, hard-nosed players that are very, very well-coached so their scheme presents a problem too.

"We're going to have to have a great week of practice. We're going to have to be very focused on every single play, limit mistakes, really communicate really well because they're a tough team, run or pass, to go against."

The Patriots have outscored their last three opponents, 92-20, over the last three games, with Brady and Co. always in high gear.

"I think it's more about execution," O'Brien said of the task at hand. "We're not going to show him anything that he hasn't already seen. He's been doing it for years, 17 years or whatever it is.

"I mean, that's part of what makes him who he is. He's seen it all. He's very well-prepared. He's played against a lot of these players. He's played against this scheme. We just need to kind of do what we do and execute and play every play. Be very focused on every single play, I think that's big for us."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Playoff Action

NFC Divisional Playoffs (FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET)
Seattle vs. Atlanta

Odds: Atlanta (-4); Total set at 52

This is the first of two highly intriguing games in the NFC as the Falcons look to get revenge for a two-point loss up in Seattle earlier this year. That 30-28 game was surrounded by controversy on a non-PI call on Julio Jones late in the game where had the call been made, Atlanta would have been in great position to end the game with a winning FG. Now the two teams turn around and switch venues to play in the dome with a rested Falcons team waiting to get another opportunity at this Seattle squad.

The point spread of favoring the Falcons by four is a tough one to bet, but if you are leaning somewhere on the side, laying the chalk is definitely the better option. Atlanta's offense ranked 1st in the NFL with 33.8 points/game and the 28 they put up on Seattle was no fluke. S Earl Thomas (out for the year) was still captaining Seattle's secondary that game and Seattle really didn't have many answers for slowing down Atlanta's attack.

Atlanta's defense may not be in the upper echelon, but they'll have had two weeks to prepare a strong gameplan here and HC Dan Quinn knows this Seattle team very well having been their DC for many years. It's along those lines that the total is actually the better option though as with the stakes significantly raised, points will be much harder to come by.

Bettors jumped early on this 'over' pushing the opening number from 49 to it's current state of 52. Much of that has to do with Atlanta's attack and Earl Thomas being out, but it's not like Seattle's defense hasn't been here before and they'll get other guys to step up their play. The team only gave up six points to Detroit a week ago and the Lions have a similarly strong passing game.

The main difference there is that Atlanta can run the ball much better and I expect them to use that ground attack to chew up clock, move the chains and keep their own defense rested. The Falcons averaged 35 points/game at home this year, but they really never faced an elite defense like Seattle brings to the table in any of those games.

Furthermore, Seattle's offense has been a much worse unit away from home, scoring just 15 points/game on average. Knowing that, Seattle's coaching staff will have put extra work on the defensive side of things this week to keep Atlanta around 20 points tops to give the Seahawks their best chance to win. Seattle is on a 4-9 O/U run after winning by 14+ points, and with Atlanta 2-7 O/U in their last nine at home against a winning road team, take the value in having the majority of bettors steam this total a few points higher then it should be and go low.

Best Bet: Under 52 Points


AFC Divisional Playoffs (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Houston vs. New England

Odds: New England (-16); Total set at 45

While all signs point to the heavily favored Patriots making yet another AFC Championship game, 16 points is a lot of chalk to swallow should you want to back them on the spread. The good news in that regard is that in the most recent three occurances where a NFL team has been favored by 15 or more in the playoffs, all three times the favorite has covered the number dominating from the outset.

The 1994 San Francisco 49ers did it twice en route to a Super Bowl victory, while the last team to do it was the 1998-99 Minnesota Vikings who beat Arizona by 20. As a side note, two of those three games were also during the Divisional round.

Yet, it's those historical situations that actually make the 'over' the better play here. Not only did the heavy favorites win SU and ATS in those games, they did so in high scoring fashion. In every one of those three instances, at least 40 points were scored by the favorite and there is no question that Tom Brady and the Patriots can hang 40+ on this Houston team.

It was just a few short years ago that New England hosted Houston in the Divisional round (Jan 2013) and that game was a 41-28 win for the Pats. With history on their side both with these individual franchises, and playoff teams favored by this much, don't be surprised to see New England threaten the 40-point mark on Saturday night. After all, they are 6-0-1 O/U in their last seven Divisional playoff games and have a 4-0 O/U run going at home.

Finally, with this being a rematch from earlier in the season, the divisional flip-flop situation I discussed all year long comes into play as well. These two may not be division rivals, but like the fact that when division opponents meet for the 2nd time you flip the results (take over if first game went under etc), the 'over' would be the flipped result after New England won 27-0 in the first meeting. Given the notion that the Pats will be playing from ahead with a large lead most of the time, the defense could very easily let up down the stretch to preserve health and not care about giving up a few points.

Houston has got to take some shots to even have a chance in this one, and with all three of those big underdogs in previous +/- 15 point spread games putting up at least 15 points, a score or two from the Texans will be enough to put this game easily 'over' the number.

Best Bet: Over 45 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Sunday
By Chris David

Total Talk - Saturday

Similar to Saturday’s slate, the two playoff games scheduled on Sunday are rematches from this year’s regular season and both matchups have one total going down and the other going up.

Of the four teams in action, Green Bay and Pittsburgh have the most playoff experience in this round while both Kansas City and Dallas enter as newbies.

Sunday, Jan. 15

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (*Time Change* NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Steelers blasted the Chiefs 43-14 in Week 4 as 3 ½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion and the ‘over’ (48 ½) cashed with the help of a 21-point fourth quarter. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed five touchdowns in the win and posted a QBR (quarterback rating) of 98.3, his highest rating of the season. Running back Le’Veon Bell also went nuts in the game, racking up 178 total yards on 23 touches.

Since that setback, the Chiefs only allowed four other opponents to score more than 20 points in their final 12 games and only one team was able to do so at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City surrendered 15.8 points per game at home this season, which was the fourth best mark in the league. That production helped the ‘under’ go 6-2.

Even though Pittsburgh’s offense is widely considered a juggernaut, the team has watched the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season and that includes a 6-2 record away from home. Defensively, the Steelers have been better on the road (19.6 PPG) and the offense is averaging nearly a touchdown less on the road (21.6 PPG).

Kansas City’s offense (24.3 PPG) isn’t great and QB Alex Smith receives a lot of criticism and his playoff record (2-3) is nothing to boast about. However, he’s tossed 11 touchdowns and only one interception in those games and the three losses came by a combined 11 points.

Regular NFL bettors are well aware how good Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has been off the bye in his career. The record is eye opening at 19-2 and that includes a 3-1 mark in four seasons with the Chiefs. With the Eagles, the club earned a playoff bye three times and Philadelphia won all three of those games and the ‘under’ cashed in each contest as well behind an Eagles defense that only allowed 6, 17 and 14 points.

The last playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium took place in 1994 when coincidentally the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in overtime behind legendary QB Joe Montana. Since then, KC is 0-4 in its last six playoff games at home and 0-6 ATS in the previous six. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in those games.

Including last week’s Wild Card win over Miami, the Steelers are now 7-5 in the playoffs under head coach Mike Tomlin. The ‘under’ cashed last Saturday and that was the third consecutive ticket to the low side for Pittsburgh. Prior to this mini run, the Steelers were on an 8-0-1 ‘over’ streak in the playoffs under Tomlin.

Even though the first meeting this season went ‘over’ with a late push, this series has seen the ‘under’ cash in the previous four encounters with an average combined score of 29.8 PPG.

If there is a game that could be affected by inclement weather this weekend, then this is the one. There’s a 90 percent chance of precipitation and temperatures are expected in the low thirties, even lower with the wind chill. The game was expected to start at 1:05 p.m. ET but has been changed to a 8:20 p.m. ET due to an ice storm that will hit Kansas City this weekend.

Fearless Prediction: This total opened 46 ½ and is already down to 43 ½ as of Friday and I expect it to drop further. Even though Pittsburgh has won eight straight, it hasn’t been tested during that run on either side of the ball. I believe the Chiefs will avenge the earlier loss and stifle the Steelers in this game. I’m playing the Team Total ‘under’ for both the Steelers (21) and Chiefs (22 ½) and will play the game ‘under’ (43 ½) as well.


Green Bay at Dallas (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay joked with VegasInsider.com earlier this week saying, "I think I'm going to get a tattoo that says Packers and Over. It happens all the time, so I might as well."

Based on the early betting trends, the public is riding the Green Bay-Over combination again this Sunday and the total has been pushed up to 52 ½ from 51 as of Friday.

These teams met in Week 6 and Dallas defeated Green Bay 30-16 behind a strong running game (191 yards) and an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (3 fumbles). Rookie QB Dak Prescott tossed three touchdowns for Dallas, two of the scores going to WR Cole Beasley. The total on that game closed at 47 ½ and the ‘under’ connected.

That was only the second time this season that the Packers were held under 20 points. Since that result, the Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 in their last 11 game and that includes a run of five straight.

During the current five-game ‘over’ streak, Green Bay is averaging 35 PPG and QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions during this span. The Packers have also seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road this season and their suspect defense (28.2 PPG) certainly contributed to that result.

The Dallas defense has been successful with a “bend but don’t break” style this season. Even though they’re allowing 343.9 total yards (Ranked 14th), the unit is ranked fifth in scoring defense (19.1 PPG).

Offensively, the Cowboys (26.3 PPG) have been very balanced this season despite starting a rookie QB and RB. Dak Prescott will be the second rookie QB playing in this year’s postseason and youngsters have struggled in these games. Since 1983, there have been 23 playoff games with a rookie starting at QB and those teams averaged 17.4 PPG.

Dallas has watched the ‘under’ go 10-6 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark at AT&T Stadium.

The Cowboys did make the 2015 postseason but the club is still in new territory with earning a bye to the Divisional Playoff round. Since head coach Jason Garrett took over in 2011, Dallas has gone 3-3 with rest in the regular season and the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games. The offense has been decent (24.8 PPG) during this span but the defense has been suspect (25 PPG). If you rewind back to Week 8, the Eagles had the Cowboys on the ropes but Dallas managed to escape with a 29-23 overtime victory at home while the ‘over’ (44) hit before the extra session began.

Green Bay has gone 5-4 in games away from home in the postseason under QB Aaron Rodgers and three of the losses came in overtime. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3.

Including the first encounter this season, the Packers and Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six meetings. The pair met in the 2015 playoffs and Green Bay earned a 26-21 victory over Dallas and the ‘under’ (52 ½) cashed.

Fearless Prediction: Even though the Green Bay offense is banged up with two key players (Nelson, Montgomery), I still believe Rodgers will have plenty of time against a weak Dallas pass rush. With that being said, I’d lean to the Green Bay Team Total ‘over’ (23 ½).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Divisional playoff games

Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Falcons (11-5)— Seattle (-7) held on to beat Falcons 26-24 in Week 6, thanks to no-call on blatant PI by Sherman on last play of game. Ryan passed for 310 yards but Atlanta was -2 in turnovers. Falcons had 362-333 edge in yardage. Seattle is 5-3 in Atlanta, winning 33-10 in last visit three years ago. Ryan is 1-4 in NFL playoff games; only win was 30-28 over Seattle here four years ago. Wilson is 8-3 in playoff games, 2-2 in true road games. Seahawks are 3-4-1 on road, 2-0 as a road underdog. Falcons won last four games, scoring 38.5 pts/game; they’re 5-3 at home, 2-5 as home favorites. Four of last six Seahawk games went over total; over is 5-0-1 in last six Atlanta games. #2 NFC seed won this game six of last seven years, but is 0-3 vs spread last three years.

Texans (10-7) @ Patriots (14-2)— Houston (+1) lost 27-0 here in Week 3, Brissett’s first NFL start at QB during Brady’s suspension- Texans opened as a favorite that week, but were -3 in TO’s. Houston lost all four visits here, with average score 38-12. Texans are 2-6 on road with only wins at Jaguars/Colts; they’re 2-6 as road underdogs. Last week was Osweiler’s first playoff game; he is 14-9 an an NFL starter. Brady is 22-9 in playoff games, 15-3 at home. Patriots won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they won/covered six of eight home games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Houston games, 5-2 in last seven New England games. Patriots won in this round the last five years (3-1-1 vs spread) all at home. #1 seed in AFC is just 6-5SU in this round last 11 years, 2-4 vs spread the last six years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

Weather knocked out racing at Aqueduct last weekend but we are back in action on Saturday with a good nine race card featuring a pair of stakes—the $100,000 Ruthless and the $125,000 Jazil.

The Ruthless drew a field of seven three-year-old fillies led by Yorkiepoo Princess (2-1), the gate to wire winner of the Furlough Stakes in her last outing on Nov. 24 in gate to wire fashion.

She faces a field with plenty of early speed and I am going to go with the Kiaran McLaughlin trained Bride Street, who was a good looking maiden winner in her debut.

The Jazil is for four-year-olds and upward at one mile and 70 yards on the inner track with a field of six lining up.

Royal Posse is going for his fifth consecutive victory and has been one of the best claims we have seen in recent years.

Rudy Rodriguez claimed him for just $20,000 in May of 2015 and he has won seven stakes for the barn and has landed in the exacta in all 14 starts for the trainer.

However, he is 0 for 6 on the inner track in his career at the Big A so I’ll take a stab we can beat him with Bay of Plenty, who is better than he showed last out when he faded badly to finish sixth in the Queen’s County.

We have a 12-race card at Gulfstream park on Saturday that kicks off at noon eastern and features three graded stakes—the $150,000 Marshua’s River (G3), $200,000 Ft. Lauderdale (G2) and the $150,000 Hal’s Hope (G3).

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250 (12:00 ET)
#3 Shere Khan 9-2
#1 Stableford 7-2
#6 Take Time to Pray 2-1
#9 Starship Apache 6-1

Analysis: Shere Khan tracked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish fourth last out for this tag over a wet track that was kind to inside speed that day. The gelding rallied for third two back over another racing strip that was playing to inside speed. He should get some pace and could run them down if he gets a fairer racing surface today.

Stableford exits the same race as our top pick and he tracked the early pace and could not get by the winner late, beaten a half-length. He looks headed in the right direction as he makes his third start off the claim by the Rodriguez barn. He was taken three back out of a runner up finish at this level. He does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix here.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6,9
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,2,3,6,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 5 The Jazil (2:20 ET)
#4 Bay of Plenty 5-2
#3 Royal Posse 7-5
#6 Doyouknowsomething 7-2
#2 Sunny Ridge 6-1

Analysis: Bay of Plenty pressed the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten sixth last out in the Queen's County over a wet track here last out. He came back off the bench with a couple of solid efforts on turf in runner up finishes. He broke his maiden over the inner track here and is a stakes winner on dirt, taking the restricted Alydar in the summer of '15 at the Spa. His last was just too bad to believe and looking for him to give a much better account of himself in this spot for the McLaughlin barn.

Royal Posse won the Claiming Crown Jewel last out for his fourth win in a row. The RRod barn claimed this guy for just $20,000 and he has not missed an exacta finish since. However, he is 0 for 6 on the inner track in his career and is going to be a very light price in this spot.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The Hal's Hope G3 (5:05 ET)
#2 Tommy Macho 9-2
#8 Mr. Jordan 5-2
#3 Bird Song 6-1
#5 Ami's Flatter 8-1

Analysis: Tommy Macho won the Fred Hooper (G3) over the main track here at a mile last February and earned a career top speed figure in a good looking effort, drawing away to win by 3 ¾ lengths. An eight-month layoff followed and he returns in a tough spot, checking in fifth in the Kelso Handicap (G2) and then dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth in the Richard W. Small at Laurel Park at nine furlongs. He has won at nine furlongs but the cut back here to a one turn mile should suit this guy. Pletcher has been on a nice roll at the meeting, hitting at a 33% clip overall. The five-year-old reunites with Saez who was aboard for his Hooper win.

Mr. Jordan returns off a two-month break after winning the Millions Classic Preview at GP West in a sharp effort. He really did not beat much in that outing, five coming back run again and the best finish among them was a fourth. Plesa elected to skip the Sunshine Millions Classic with this guy as stablemate Awesome Slew is being pointed to the race. The gelding landed in the money in eight of his nine starts last year, winning his last pair, but is 0 for 5 over the main track here including a fifth in this race last year, but he did come back a week later to earn a career top speed fig in a runner up finish in the Sunshine Millions Classic. He fits with his best but may end up a light price.

Bird Song took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out at Churchill Downs earning a career top speed fig at 6-5. His lone stakes try came in the King’s Bishop (G1) at the Spa going seven furlongs last August where he was not a threat in an eighth-place finish. The colt has been working sharply at Palm Meadows since his last start and should be in the mix early in this spot. There is some other speed in here and this guy could get a good trip sitting just off the pace.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,5,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #4 The Two Nancy’s 12-1
R2: #6 Proud Lily 12-1
R3: #3 Treatherlikeastar 15-1
R6: #3 Nigel’s Destiny 10-1
R7: #12 Devilish Grin 10-1
R7: #9 No Entiendo 8-1
R8: #1 Little Popsie 8-1
R9: #4 Grassmiss 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Post: 10:55 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$6500 - N/W $3,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $6,000 IN LAST START OR WINNERS OVER $50,000 IN 2016/17 INELIGIBLE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 GAIUS CRASTINUS 7/1
# 5 ONE MORE MIRACLE 9/5
# 3 UF FAST FEELIN 7/1

The choice today is GAIUS CRASTINUS and is a very good value-based bet given the 7/1 line. Had one of the top TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field of horses in his last contest. I'd recommend using in your wagers. ONE MORE MIRACLE - A great class horse shouldn't be be overlooked. With an avg class figure of 88 all signs say this is the one to beat. Could best this field, just look at the speed rating - 79 - from his most recent effort. UF FAST FEELIN - Hard to put finger on it, but back him in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 8:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$20000 - CLAIM TO FAME SERIES LATE CLOSER - 1ST LEG - 2ND DIVISION HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $20,000 W/ALLOWANCES. LINE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 3 YOUWILLWISHYOUHAD 3/1
# 5 UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY 5/1
# 2 FIRECRACKER FREDDY 6/1

YOUWILLWISHYOUHAD will not be denied the win for this one. This contender looks very good. Take a good look at the 86 average speed rating. The 87 avg class stat may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the bunch. Should be in the hunt again in here, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning stat. UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY - Could provide us a trip to the winner's circle based on very good recent TrackMaster speed figs - earning an avg of 86. The 87 average class rating may give this gelding a distinct edge in the group of animals. FIRECRACKER FREDDY - With a really strong 82 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will most definitely be a factor in this race. Horse has one of the most competitive win statistics in the bunch and that could be the deciding factor when they cross the wire.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $33200 Class Rating: 103

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, TRIAL OR STATE BRED SINCE JANUARY 1, 2016 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 EYESA FAMOUS EAGLE 3/1

# 10 EASILY BONO 8/1

# 12 CORONAS BOY 6/1

EYESA FAMOUS EAGLE looks like the wager in here. His 93 average has this gelding with among the top Speed Figures in this contest. The speed rating of 103 from his last affair looks respectable in here. The average Equibase class rating of 93 makes this horse difficult to beat. EASILY BONO - Roman has one of the best winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Will likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the midpoint of the competition. CORONAS BOY - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Orona have shown very solid results lately. The speed figure of 98 from his latest contest looks formidable in here

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6100 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 14 KITTEN'S MATRIARCH 5/2

# 3 DIVINE FRIENDS 12/1

# 11 TENACIOUS SALLY 8/1

My pick in this contest is KITTEN'S MATRIARCH. Lezcano will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out early here. Is a solid choice - given the 65 speed rating from her most recent race. DIVINE FRIENDS - The speed rating of 55 from her most recent affair looks formidable in here. Shows solid Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. TENACIOUS SALLY - Garnered a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair.