MLB Top Weekend Power Trends 7/24-7/26
With the trade deadline of July 31st rapidly approaching, baseball will continue to define its contenders and pretenders this weekend. In the National League, only one of the three divisions offers a compelling pennant race, the Central, where four teams are separated by two games in the loss column. In the American League, there is significantly more drama, with all three division races much in play. The Central takes center stage again there though over the next three days, with Chicago visiting Detroit for four games. The teams go into the weekend set tied atop the standings. Read on as we look at the action in both leagues’ Central Divisions, and highlight the Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider as you fill out your baseball wagering cards.
The N.L. Central Division is as tight as any in recent memory as we get ready to wrap up the month of July. St. Louis paces the standings but will be hard pressed to hang on to that spot as it visits red-hot Philadelphia this weekend. The defending champs have won 15 of their last 17 games to take control of the East. The Cardinals meanwhile are in the midst of a tough stretch that sees them take on not just one, but three hot teams including Houston and Los Angeles. Philadelphia will be looking to extend a 4-game winning streak over St. Louis dating back to last season.
Speaking of the Astros, they are at home taking on the Mets, having reached a season-high 3-games over .500. Houston comes off a key 3-game sweep of the Cardinals. Meanwhile, things aren’t so rosy in New York, as the Mets are just 7-16 in their last 23 games. Perhaps the only good news for the Mets is that they will be going with Johan Santana in Game 1 of this set, and SANTANA is 23-3 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game.
The other two teams that remain in the thick of the crowded N.L. Central are the Cubs and Brewers. Chicago is back at home this weekend, hosting the fading Reds who are on a prolonged slump of 13-23 since mid-June. Milwaukee is playing nearly as poorly as Cincinnati and is on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture. Thankfully for the Brew Crew, a 7-game homestand, which includes four games vs. Washington, starts on Monday. Before that however, Milwaukee will look to kick start itself against Atlanta this weekend. The Brewers took two of three in Atlanta last month. Keep an eye on the total in that series, as 15 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings have gone under the total.
In the American League, the big series pits Chicago and Detroit from the Motor City. The Sox have climbed back into a first place tie with the Tigers and are riding the momentum of Mark Buehrle’s perfect game on Thursday afternoon. A day-night doubleheader will start this crucial set. Detroit hopes to get back to the pace that saw it win 26 of its first 38 home games. Chicago has climbed back into the race by winning 22 of its last 33 games. In this head-to-head series, Chicago owns the edge, going 27-17 over the last three seasons, including 12-8 in Detroit.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to make note of as you handicap the weekend’s games.
CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS
CINCINNATI is 23-17 (+9.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 15-36 (-19.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 (+15.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at HOUSTON
NY METS are 19-31 (-11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was NY METS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 30-9 (+18.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO
COLORADO is 28-10 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in July home games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 7.0, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
PITTSBURGH is 13-42 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
FLORIDA at LA DODGERS
FLORIDA is 18-10 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
OAKLAND is 17-35 (-16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at TORONTO
MADDON is 11-39 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in July road games as the manager of TAMPA BAY. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 3*)
CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT
DETROIT is 12-26 (-15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
BALTIMORE at BOSTON
BALTIMORE is 43-90 (-33.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 12-24 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 2.9, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA is 27-47 (-22.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at SEATTLE
CLEVELAND is 19-32 (-13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)