Sat Bet O The Day 6th Week 10/4

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 6-4
SIDES 4-2
TOTALS 2-2

I took San Jose St in the late game vs Hawaii. Bet was based on Hawaii's ineptness, they are worst team in the nation in Turnovers. Hawaii came through turning the ball over 6 times to 0 Takeaways. Hawaii also had 11 penalties for 115 yds all inopportune and are ranked 116th in penalty yds. Hawaii is a very bad coached undisciplined team traveling into rabid Bulldog territory.

More to come throughout the week.

Fresno State-22

 

[Conan]

YTD 6-4
SIDES 4-2
TOTALS 2-2

I took San Jose St in the late game vs Hawaii. Bet was based on Hawaii's ineptness, they are worst team in the nation in Turnovers. Hawaii came through turning the ball over 6 times to 0 Takeaways. Hawaii also had 11 penalties for 115 yds all inopportune and are ranked 116th in penalty yds. Hawaii is a very bad coached undisciplined team traveling into rabid Bulldog territory.

More to come throughout the week.

Fresno State-22

I've been looking for an angle on that game.
Sounds like a good place to start.

I'm just wondering if possibly Fresno may have a letdown after beating UCLA for the first time in the history of the world. Then there are these "boring" conference games... boring to Pat Hill that is. Aside from that, no doubt about the superiority of Fresno. Interesting stuff you pointed out about Hawaii. I am wondering if Hawaii's butterfingers may be worked into Fresno's game plan. Sounds plausible if Fresno's coaches are aware of this.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Defense covers the spread and not sure that Fresno St has what it takes.

I might have jumped the gun with my pick as the giddiness of the SJ win had not worn off. SJ has a defense, need to look closer at FS D at home. Currently on the fence with this pick.

 

[AR_23]

22 Is a lot to give up

 

[OccamsRazor]

Still on the fence on the Fresno St pick on this Monday leaning towards not.

Tuesdays Game: Mid Tenn at home 0-2 in conference games vs Florida Atlantic who has yet to play a conference game. Game means more to Mid Atlantic.

You should be getting the drill here by now, win the turnover battle win the game. Mid Tenn brings in the more aggresive defense and a National 49 ranking in Turnover margin versus Florida Atlantic's 110 rank.

MID TENN -2'

 

[5-0SAT]

Hawaii is a god awful team, on the road, their twice as bad, could be a solid play, a lot of points though. Interesting Play. will investigate

 

[dayang23]

Agree with you totally Fresno is the play, and i will be on it quarter, half, game and possibly the over. Fresno is Hawaii's most hated rival, we, oops Hawaii hates Fresno and Fresno hates Hawaii. Pat hill will run this score up huge with every chance he gets. Fresno is one of my biggest bets this week. I see Fresno putting up at least 45 points this week minimum.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Article for Mid tenn/Florida Atl game:

http://www.dnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080927/SPORTS/809270306/1006/SPORTS

 

[gazoo]

Onboard the Fresno train also. But it's more a play against Hawaii. Cashed in w/ SJSU LW and Oregon St. vs. Hawaii. Totally agree off the island they are good bet to get pounded. First half bet should be gold too!

 

[OccamsRazor]

Win the turnover battle and cover 80% of the time. Well, that 20% showed up on Tuesday night as Middle Tenn won the Turnover battle 4-1 and the game but failed to cover the 2', winning only by one. Kudos to Florida Atlantic front 4 who kept them in the game till the end. Back at em next time.


Now I'm leaning back to Fresno St - the points. Mostly due to the Turnover margin. Hawaii is last in the nation in turnover margin. Hawaii has taken the ball away a grand total of 2 times, both interceptions and they have yet to recover 1 fumble this season. Hawaii has coughed the ball up a grand total of 17 times, 6 fumbles and 11 interceptions.

Fresno St has taken it away 4 times and given it up 4 times. Aggressive defenses cause takeaways, I'm not sure that Fresno with only 4 takeaways qualifies as an aggressive defense, but they don't turn the ball over.

Hawaii has a new coach and field a very young undisciplined team. Hawaii is 114 out of 119 teams in penalties per game. Basically Hawaii beats themselves with penalties and turnovers. Kicker 2 out of 6 in FGs

Fresno coming of a huge win at the Rose Bowl, dont see them getting down versus a hated conference foe. Hawaii has been outscored 17 to 101 in their 2 Rd games. Ouch.

 

[GarryP]

Occams, change your fuckin FONT!!! PLEASE!!
:lol:

Also, do you live near Bethany?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Thursday play adding: Pittsburgh +13'

Pitt will be competitive, they have an average offense and defense and play disciplined; #1 in country in fewest penalties pergame. Chance for Pitt to make a statement on national TV. Live Dog.

GarryP, I bold-ed the font, is that better? hno: just kidding

I like my old school font, it defines who I is, an English major dropout. I live in the San Gabe valley in Sierra Madre

 

[chanman83]

hey i don't give a fuck if you use comics san as long as the results are WINNER! hahah keep up the good work. I think I'm going to just take the under in that game. Pitt as fucked me one too many times this year for me to warrant betting on them again.

 

[OccamsRazor]

hey i don't give a fuck if you use comics san as long as the results are WINNER! hahah keep up the good work. I think I'm going to just take the under in that game. Pitt as fucked me one too many times this year for me to warrant betting on them again.

Pitt has not covered all year 0-4.

South Florida has covered only once, 1-4, indicating the public has overvalued South Flor.

Receiving 13' from a 1-4 ats team spells value to me.

 

[OccamsRazor]

"Receiving 13' from a 1-4 ats team spells value to me". Occams

Cha ching :toast: Congrats to those on Pitt.

Lost the TO battle but still won the game, rare and indicating South Florida was overrated.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Adding: Baylor +24'

Same reasoning as the Pittsburgh bet. Baylor is competitive, they can both run and throw. Baylor's defense is at worse average and they have more takeaways than Oklahoma. Lastly they are a live Home dog. Betting it late here Friday morning, line was at 27.

 

[chanman83]

nice call bro, I went with you on pitt and I'm glad I did! :toast:

 

[juluvg]

Thanks OR.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Officially my Bet O the Day is actually 2, Baylor+ 24' and I'm going with Fresno-22. Hawaii is a bad team, along with the worst TO margin, they are also last in the nation in offensive 3rd down conversation percentage.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Fresno line down to 21, yet 70% of bettors on Fresno.

Raining in Fresno at 1:30 am Sat. 90% chance of rain at kickoff. Still early.