Something I found on the net...
OFF THE RADAR:
FREDDIE GARCIA OF SEATTLE READY TO WIN SOME GAMES IF THE MARINERS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT UPSWING
By The Staff:
It's kind of tough for us to write this one. We spent most of last season showing how Freddie Garcia of the Seattle Mariners was very overrated.
The Mariners were thought of as a playoff contender, even though they were fading well back from their peak of prior seasons. Garcia was thought of as a staff ace, even though he was posting a mediocre 4.52 ERA…which was more like 5.00-5.50 if you made adjustments for the great pitcher's park he got to play in at home.
So, Vegas oddsmakers were pricing Garcia like the ace of a great team…when in fact he was pitching poorly for a team heading the wrong direction.
Now…Garcia really is pitching like an ace…for a team that's finally started moving in the right direction after a horrible start to the 2004 season.
Take a look at Garcia's jump:
2003: 4.52 ERA on 6.1 IP per start
2004: 3.21 ERA on 7.0 IP per start
He's knocked more than a run off his ERA, and added an inning to his IP per start numbers. Now, we do have to acknowledge the home park influence. Let's break that down for you.
2004 STATS
Home: 2.54 ERA on 7.1 IP per start
Road: 3.91 ERA on 6.9 IP per start
Okay, so Garcia's not really a 3.21 type of pitcher. But, he is a 3.91 ERA type pitcher on nearly 7 innings per start. That will get the job done in the American League where the designated hitter is known to inflate scoring a bit.
Is that enough to make him a worthwhile investment?
If Seattle is going to finish the year 67-95…no it isn't. NOBODY is a value pitcher on a team like that. The Mariners started the season horribly, and smart wagerers made a lot of money going against them. But, lately they've turned things around. We mentioned in earlier this week that the team was over .500 during the past month. So, while Vegas oddsmakers are thinking of them as a last place team…they are probably likely to be at least a .500 team the rest of the season. And, they've got potential to become a consistent winner if the old guys in the offense start lifting their slugging percentage.
Ironically, this has all created a window of opportunity for wagerers. Garcia was ON THE RADAR for way too long…being perceived as a stud pitcher even though he was posting subpar numbers on a fading team. Now, just as oddsmakers and the wagering public have decided he's not that big a deal (look at the recent prices in his games), he's pitching great for a team that may be poised to catch fire in the second half of the season.
Our job here is to find pitchers who are likely to offer very strong value to wagerers. Typically, those guys AREN'T the longtime aces on the top teams. The lines are just too high to trust that type of pitcher every single time out. The true value pitchers are those who are performing like aces at much cheaper prices…for teams who aren't quite as highly thought of as the Yankees or Red Sox. We've already given you several guys who fit this profile from .500 caliber type teams. Freddie Garcia now clearly qualifies from that perspective.
Take advantage in the coming weeks…especially when Garcia is pitching at home against weak offenses. He'll have shutout potential in that type of game, at very affordable Las Vegas prices.
We'll be back next Thursday with an OFF THE RADAR pitcher.
(PROBABLY EVEN AN UNDER)
