saku's MMA World Victory Road 2009

[saku]

I will usually post my picks just after weigh-inns

my statistics you can find at my site www.mma4life.pl

Let's get it on!

#1

WVR: SENGOKU 7 - Jan 4th

JORGE SANTIAGO 2.00
KAZOU MISAKI 1.77
10/10

I'm posting this now because Santiago soon will be favourite at all bookmakers and now you can get him at +100 at betCris.

GL

 

[RobFunk]

Saku, you need at least 300 posts to be in the tracker forum. I will move this to the MMA section for you.

 

[saku]

Wow, I must've be blind to post this inthere. Thx Rob

 

[saku]

Litle writeup for this pick. Decision is simple. Santiago is better fighter in my opinion and if nothing unexpected happen he will be victorious. He comes from very good American Top Team with great sparingpartners. Only one way that Misaki can win here is unfair judging. He won't submit that good submission fighter like Santiago, and also TKOing him will be hard. Santiago lost via TKO only 4 times, with very good fighters. Misaki won via TKO about 5 or 6 years ago (exept his last won with Riggs)

 

[saku]

JORGE SANTIAGO 2.00
KAZOU MISAKI 1.77
10/10

Jorge just won via rear naked choke in the last round

 

[TheBrainiac]

Yep , was his last hope being 1-3 rounds down .

 

[saku]

delete

 

[saku]

#1

vs

That's probably easiest fight to predict(from those with value) I'm taking here Dan Henderson and he should be here bigger favourite. All Franklin can do to him is tko/ko. But Dan was never ko/tko'ed in his entire carrer since 1997! Hendo has more power, dynamic and has great base in wrestling. Dan will dominate Rich on the ground ahd take decision win.

That would be my lock 10/10 but since it's a poster fight I will take it 7/10

Pick: Dan Henderson 1.83

More picks soon because Paddy Power have lot of options for this event

 

[saku]

Event is in Dublin so Paddy Power, Irelands bookie has many options fot this event.

#3

J Horn v R Palhares
Will the fight go to a judges decision
Yes 3.50
3/10

#4

J Horn v R Palhares
Method of Victory
R Palhares by submission 1.72
6/10

#5

R Palhares on points 6.00
4/10

#6

M Coleman v M Rua
Method of Victory
M Rua by submission 8.00
5/10

#7

Franklin v D Henderson
Method of Victory
R Franklin by submission 17.00
2/10

#8
Submission of the Night
Mauricio Rua 19.00
1/10

#9
Rousimar Palhares 5.50
2/10

#10
Eric Schafer 11.00
1/10

#11
KO of the Night
Mauricio Rua 8.00
1/10

#12
Tomasz Drwal 13.00
1/10

#13
Fight of the Night
Marcus Davis v Chris Lytle 5.50
1/10

#14
Tomasz Drwal v Ivan Serati 8.00
1/10

 

[saku]

UFC 93 brought 17,81 u

 

[saku]

First pick for this weekend

#15

MIKE CAMPBELL EV
DANILLO VILLEFORT -130

Pick: DANILLO VILLEFORT -130
stake: 10/10 (100)

-Mike has no background in any martial art, he trains MMA for about 4 years
-His MMA record - 4-0-0, all fights at small shows
-he is very unexperienced
On the other hand:
- Danillo has great base in BJJ and Judo (black belts)
- MMA record 8 - 2 - 0
- he has fought at some bigger shows (IFL, WFC, JF)
- He trains in one of the best gyms in the world, his sparingpartners are leading MMA artists in the world

As you can se, there is a lot of value in this bet and if nothing unexpected happen(injury etc..) Danillo should submit Mike easly

more picks for both of the events soon

 

[saku]

#15

MIKE CAMPBELL EV
DANILLO VILLEFORT -130

Pick: DANILLO VILLEFORT -130
stake: 10/10 (100)

pick won, +7,7 u

 

[saku]

Looking at the UFC 94 odds I like Thiago Tavares. I'm also wondering at Cramer - Arroyo fight.

 

[onemorebet]

Love your picks

For UFC 94 I have strong leans on Penn, Diaz, and Jon Jones

My locks are Arroyo, Jon Fitch, and O'Brien

Why do you like Taveras? I do too but my reason is only because I think Manny is over valued...

 

[saku]

Brian Cobb +200
Terry Etim -220
Pick: Brian Cobb
stake: 4/10​

 

[saku]

Brian Cobb +200

Terry Etim -220
Pick: Brian Cobb
stake: 4/10 ​

pick lost

 

[saku]

#17
Danny Castillo vs Phil Cardella
Pick: Phil Cardella
Stake: 9/10
odds: +149
book: pinnacle

Analysis soon

 

[saku]

Both fighters have similar records but Cardella have some more not ranked boughts. He also have more MMA experience because he start competing since about 2001 year. Castillo fights since 2007. Cardillo is a bjj black belt with 15 years of bjj experience. He says that he knows all about his opponent, where and with who he trains, his weaknes and tendencys.

Castillo is a wrestler but he hasn't show good takedowns and conditioning. In one of his last fights he has been easly submited by a fighter who trains submissions for about 2-3 years. Now he is going to fight with submission specialist.

Guy who trains in Cardellas gym says that he was training very hard, so we can expect that he is going to be well prepared and without any hiden injurys.

Last factor is that he is fighting in his home town with his mentor Relson Gracie in the corner.

GL

 

[dps831]

tailin ya on cardella, gl!

 

[saku]

#17
Danny Castillo vs Phil Cardella
Pick: Phil Cardella
Stake: 9/10
odds: +149
book: pinnacle

Disappointment. Cardella lost via split decision. Everywhere I read they say that he was robbed. In first round he knocked out his opponent just before round end. In the second round another punch and Castillo is out one more time(!) and the bell saves him. In the last round Cardella put him in a triangle choke but bell saves him one more time. I'm still waiting for the vid, because fight was unaired.

It's bad because I lost some money and those who followed me to. But on the other hand I'm glad that I have chose better fighter who should win, even beeing underdog.​