The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different.
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: ABC/ESPN+
Moneyline: Chiefs -258, Saints +210
Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-112), Saints +5.5 (-108)
Total: Over 43 (-112), Under 43 (-108)
This season, the Saints are fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.172). They’re also getting the Chiefs at the perfect time. Kansas City just lost star wideout Rashee Rice indefinitely, as he hurt his knee in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers. It does seem like Rice will be back in a couple of weeks, which is a win considering the injury initially looked like it would end his season. But this is a Chiefs team that is already low on pass-catching talent. So, this New Orleans secondary has a much easier job to do.
The Saints just need to make sure that they don’t get beat over the top by rookie Xavier Worthy, who is one of the fastest receivers in the league. They also need to try their best to contain Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the short to intermediate portion of the field. Kelce has not looked like himself this season, so it isn’t crazy to think that New Orleans can slow him down. And Smith-Schuster might know the offense well, but he lacks Rice’s quickness. So, even though he’ll be running Rice’s routes this week, there’s no guarantee he’ll have a decent game.
New Orleans should also feel pretty good about slowing down the Kansas City running game. The Saints are 12th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.132), and the Chiefs are trotting out Kareem Hunt as their starting running back. Hunt looked pretty good against the Chargers last week, but this is a 29-year-old that was a free agent a couple of weeks ago. It’s hard to imagine him running wild against a good defensive team.
The only real concern here is that the Saints need to find a way to score against a solid Chiefs defense. And while New Orleans scored 91 points over the first two weeks of the season, the team has scored a total of 36 points over the last two weeks. But this could ultimately be a good game for Derek Carr. The Chiefs are just 15th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.020) this season, and they’re definitely a bit vulnerable in the secondary. So, if the Saints offensive line holds up here, Carr should be able to make some throws. The line was great in the first two weeks of the year, but the group has struggled over the last two weeks. But either way, I trust the New Orleans offense to do just enough to get the job done here.
This is a massive game for the Saints, so they’re going to come out with some serious intensity. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will probably sleepwalk through this one, which is what they have done for most of the season. Maybe Patrick Mahomes will steal the win late, but I don’t see him finding a way to cover.
Not only is New Orleans fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play, but this team is also third in the league in interceptions. The Saints already have six picks through four games, which isn’t that surprising considering they had 18 interceptions a year ago. This is a ball-hawking New Orleans secondary, and I’d be surprised if the Saints don’t pick off Mahomes at least once. Mahomes might be the best quarterback in football, but he makes a lot of turnover-worthy plays. And he’s up to five interceptions through four games this season. Look for him to make another mistake here.
Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110)
How To Watch Saints vs. Chiefs
When: Monday, October 7th at 8:15 pm ETWhere: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: ABC/ESPN+
Saints vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 5th. Look around for the best prices!Moneyline: Chiefs -258, Saints +210
Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-112), Saints +5.5 (-108)
Total: Over 43 (-112), Under 43 (-108)
Saints vs. Chiefs Analysis
The Saints have lost two games in a row, but their defensive numbers continue to tell a good story. New Orleans is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.160), and the team is also second in Defensive DVOA. Considering the strength of this Saints defense has been the passing defense, it’s hard not to like the idea of taking the points with the road team here.This season, the Saints are fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.172). They’re also getting the Chiefs at the perfect time. Kansas City just lost star wideout Rashee Rice indefinitely, as he hurt his knee in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers. It does seem like Rice will be back in a couple of weeks, which is a win considering the injury initially looked like it would end his season. But this is a Chiefs team that is already low on pass-catching talent. So, this New Orleans secondary has a much easier job to do.
The Saints just need to make sure that they don’t get beat over the top by rookie Xavier Worthy, who is one of the fastest receivers in the league. They also need to try their best to contain Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the short to intermediate portion of the field. Kelce has not looked like himself this season, so it isn’t crazy to think that New Orleans can slow him down. And Smith-Schuster might know the offense well, but he lacks Rice’s quickness. So, even though he’ll be running Rice’s routes this week, there’s no guarantee he’ll have a decent game.
New Orleans should also feel pretty good about slowing down the Kansas City running game. The Saints are 12th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.132), and the Chiefs are trotting out Kareem Hunt as their starting running back. Hunt looked pretty good against the Chargers last week, but this is a 29-year-old that was a free agent a couple of weeks ago. It’s hard to imagine him running wild against a good defensive team.
The only real concern here is that the Saints need to find a way to score against a solid Chiefs defense. And while New Orleans scored 91 points over the first two weeks of the season, the team has scored a total of 36 points over the last two weeks. But this could ultimately be a good game for Derek Carr. The Chiefs are just 15th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.020) this season, and they’re definitely a bit vulnerable in the secondary. So, if the Saints offensive line holds up here, Carr should be able to make some throws. The line was great in the first two weeks of the year, but the group has struggled over the last two weeks. But either way, I trust the New Orleans offense to do just enough to get the job done here.
This is a massive game for the Saints, so they’re going to come out with some serious intensity. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will probably sleepwalk through this one, which is what they have done for most of the season. Maybe Patrick Mahomes will steal the win late, but I don’t see him finding a way to cover.
Saints vs. Chiefs Player Props
Mahomes To Throw An Interception (-113)Not only is New Orleans fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play, but this team is also third in the league in interceptions. The Saints already have six picks through four games, which isn’t that surprising considering they had 18 interceptions a year ago. This is a ball-hawking New Orleans secondary, and I’d be surprised if the Saints don’t pick off Mahomes at least once. Mahomes might be the best quarterback in football, but he makes a lot of turnover-worthy plays. And he’s up to five interceptions through four games this season. Look for him to make another mistake here.
Saints vs. Chiefs Pick
I think the Saints have a pretty good chance of winning this game outright, but I’ll just grab the 5.5 to be safe. New Orleans is actually 7-4 against the spread as a road underdog under head coach Dennis Allen, and the team is also 7-3 ATS as a road ‘dog of 7 or less under him. The Chiefs also feel like they are due for a loss. They haven’t played very well on either side of the ball this year, but they have been able to escape with wins. Don’t be surprised if that changes here. Also, Kansas City is just 45-46-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Andy Reid.Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110)
