Saints to bury AZ - thoughts?

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"With mirrors", "overacheiving" - things which could describe AZ's first three results...only giving them an 0-3 SU record but 2-1 ATS. They are remarkably short on talent as currently constituted on the field.

Game 1's ATS win was a gift courtesy of the now obviously eptless Rams...but give credit to effort and creating TOs.

Game 2 was the standard give 150% to try to knock off the Super Bowl champs. The Pats were a little off and AZ kicked two 50+ yd. FGs early to give them heart.

Game 3 was a Falcon sandwich letdown between the Ram thrashing and the Panther game on-deck, given that they were a 10-11 point favorite at home. But once again, let us give credit to AZ, this time for an old and ancient Oklahoma-style defensive scheme which had Vick and the offensive staff frustrated. Vick is still a work-in-progress with the West Coast offense, so give him rare looks and he can seem bewildered.

NOW AZ actually looks like they have a winnable game. (Note that AZ's success at home last year was mainly the games getting 7+ points.)The Saints will respect them more than the other opponents and have more game film to understand how AZ can surprise you if you aren't prepared. NOR has a great road history under Haslett, particularly as a PK/fav to 6 on the road. They have the talent to be a 10-6 playoff team this year. Their defense goes from facing the Rams to AZs hapless offensive squad. AZ has yielded 11 sacks in the last two games and face a sack-happy squad this Sunday. Bryant is coming on, but Fitzgerald is not healthy and Jones hangs around for pass-protection but can't really handle that task. With the players on the field, AZ is a 3-13 edition. Denny Green is a good motivator, but how confusing does it seem when he's picking up new offensive assistants already?

I think it's hard to be flat when you are 0-3, but relatively-speaking, I think AZ will look that way unless they have VERY good fortune early this week.

Saints 24-10.
 

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Done deal! I think the OVER is a good play as well...Saints are moving the ball VERY well and Zona will get some points off the not so good Saint "D"...GL!!
 

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I'd be careful with the OVER to the extent that this same Saint team rarely gave up 20 last year for the last nine games or so and I believe has improved with their kids and Ambrose has stepped up. They were porous v. the run in the first two games, admittedly. Bulger got his share through the air last week, but that is the Rams and in their dome. I see the Saints 'D' emerging soon and let's face it - AZ 3 points v. Falcons while getting 4 TOs, 10 points v. Rams, same thing. Also, you're fading the H-E-A-T in Arizona, which often keeps the scoring down.

Word of caution: Horn's knee is not great and Pathon injured in practice yesterday...worth monitoring.
 

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jaypaw said:
I hate the heat
I think the Heat will be cool this year. Shaq's gonna rip Kobe's mug off in the two meetings, and show it to Kupchak live on TV.
If you can still get the Saints at -3, do it.
 
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I cant but I dont have enough faith in them yet to lay anything on them

looks like a good pick though

best of luck
 

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One thing about Haslett, the Saints, and especially Brooks. They've watched the Bucs win the Super Bowl, the Panthers get there, and now the Falcons have a healthy Vick (Brooks' cousin) and are 3-0 to start the year. This is their division. They are talented enough to have a turn, and they feel ignored and generally underestimated (granted they have imploded enough to contribute to this perception). Most of their troubles occur late in the year.

McAllister's injury may be a blessing to the extent that the team may focus a bit more offensively. To balance the points they've yielded early this year, the Saints will be hungry to pitch close to a shutout vs. one of the four teams against which that is currently most conceivable.

Horn/Pathon injuries ARE important to monitor, however. Were both of them to be out, the under becomes pretty reasonable, IMO.
 

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looks like a trap to me. i think i might wait to see if i can get 3.5 before kickoff and play the home dog.
 

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My figures say New Orleans +11, Total 31.

Its only Week 4 so I have to take them accordingly but a T/D + does start to make me seriously think of having a bet regardless. New Orleans Defense all hinges on Grant and Howard, if they are playing , they have a Defense.

I hate when my figures throw up a game like this as I am torn between the side and total. Injuries aside, this looks like a perfect action points game. If New Orleans do their stuff, big pay-out, downside, how far can you get beat the other way.
 

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To BLUE EDWARDS:

Public rarely gets enamored of the 'Aints. 'Zona looking to get off the schneid. If McAllister were healthy, the line would be 4...so the difference between the Pats and 'Aints would be 3.5. Sounds reasonable to me...where's the suspicion in the line? Not to mention that NOR has two wins, but both late rallies to win by just 3.
 

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the az defense is pretty good. new orleans is not a consistent team. they can look very good or very bad any given week. home team with a good defense, catching more than a field goal will be a winner most of the time in the nfl. i'll take the home dog if i can get 3.5. if it stays at three i won't play it.
 

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Brooks has thrown only ONE interception in past 344 passes. Their road record as PK/fav 1-6 is VERY consistent. AZ has played with great effort on defense, but they don't, by a longshot, HAVE a good defense.
 

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no need to argue. lets just place our bets and see who wins.
 

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not an argument - you guys were laying out the facts pretty nicely

may I point out that (though initially I lean towards new orleans) arizona does seem to have played a tougher schedule thus far. In terms of their common opponent (StLouis) New Orleans takes the cake with their 3 point win as opposed to zonas 7 pt loss. However zona lost to New England and Atlanta by a combined 14 pts, whereas NO had a net points deficit vs seattle and San Fran of 11. Seattle is good - and New England of course - so when the wash comes out it results in NO beating SF by 3 and Zona losing AT atlanta by 3...

that being said it is harder for me to justify my initial lean on NO to win by more than 3 IN arizonas house


hope that made sense

GL
 

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makes sense to me. my point is, in the long run, you will lose more than you win if you play road favorites in the nfl. not to say you never play them but, you have to pick your spots. i do not like new orleans in this spot. i will play az only if i get 3.5.

good luck.
 

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excellent point

NO might bury them if it were in Louisiana but in Arizona it could be anyone's game
 

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Except that you ignore the Saints' road prowess.

Also, I think road favs of less than 7 are 17-5 during weeks 2-4 lately. I know this is virtually meaningless, and in fact I rarely bet road favs myself.

What about THIS angle?

If a team loses by 1-3 points as a double digit dog and IF their next game is at home, they are......... 1-18 ATS.

When AZ has played an East Coast game then returns home, they are 1-8 so long as they are no more than a 4 pt. dog.
 

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First of all, I would like to say that AZ is improved with Denny Green. McCown is starting to get synchronized with his receivers. That being said, I don't believe AZ has played teams that are playing all the well. The Rams are in a down year, New England played in AZ during a windy day and Atlanta barely beat SF and New England.

The home field advantage of Sun Devil Stadium hasn't been all that great when compared to the rest of the league so I don't think you can look at a "home dog" and automatically think it has value. This is still a team that is finding its legs under a new coach and QB.

I look for the Saints to do impressively, which means winning by more than 3.
 

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like i said, i will only play it if i can get 3.5. maybe i will and it lands on the 3...i win and you don't get hurt. or, maybe they get blown out. or, maybe they win straight up.

it's a play on the number more than the team for me. i'm not impressed with new orleans and az has played good defensively.

good luck guys.
 

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