Saints @ bucs total

[winbet]

Depending on what Stats you use this Total could have been pitched anywhere between 42 and 49 with the majority in the lower 40s, considering you would need very good reasons to expect an under, the Books sensibly opted for 47. The common denominator in Saints unders and the best ploy to beat them is running the ball, which Tampa will do. Two things stand out here though and thats how much success they will have with just two under 100% running backs and how long before they give up on it if they fall behind. As for The Saints I wonder if they adopt the same approach as Arizona the other night in wasting 1st downs on running plays, a quick tempo Reggie out of the backfield seems a much better way to go.

I honestly think that these Two Teams would have no trouble scoring 21 Points each given their normal games and outside of that any other situations point to more points rather than less. The return games are both lethal not only for scoring but field position, they both can turn the ball over and it wouldn't take much to turn this game into a shoot out.

Off course the big question mark is the Weather and depending on the degree it mostly helps my case. Firstly The Saints seem to be unaffected by wind and rain and there's a chance it will make Tampa throw more, secondly it has dropped the Total down even more. down to 45 isnt that huge but 44 would be, regardless I will leave it to see if I can get 44 and then make a decision how the Weather is just before the Game

SAINTS-BUCS OVER :drink:

 

[shale]

Just watch the weather forecast. A unusual severe front to be coming through around 2ish or so. Bringing heavy rain and winds. Just watch for the front off the Gulf of Mexico on radar. Heading to work the game right now. Thank god I work in the club level. Should be busy.

 

[C-Gold]

do you think the bad weather helps tampa? I do and I am considering tampa -4. I am not sure if I want to play 6 1pm games though...

can you say addition?

 

[shale]

What helps Tampa is that their defense is sick at home. If Brees is turnover prone like he can be, should be no reason for Tampa not to cover. Only thing that concerns me, is that Tampa's running game not condusive for brusing the opponents since Graham went down. Dunn and Caddy not gonna wear done many teams. So, they will have to do it with the defense and special teams like they have for the most part of the year. Field position will play key in this game.

 

[C-Gold]

I see it the way you do shale.

Tampa has been a darling team of mine, and they should have won the 1st matchup except for that crap non holding call for gaines adams in the first game. It was horrible.

 

[KidKash]

winbet

love seeing this, hope the weather doesnt spoil the day. good luck

 

[winbet]

It has to be remembered that this isnt the same Defense Tampa seen in the first game, one that had a good Secondary and reasonable pass rush. Thats all gone now and with their problems at Running back its hard to see Tampa not taking up a more pass happy game plan.

However, one of the things I always want on my side if I'm giving up points is an opposition that struggles to score, which isnt the case with The Saints.

Good luck on your bets Today. :drink:

 

[C-Gold]

If the weather and footing are rough, it might not be as bad for tampa...

tampa runs the wco, shorter passes, slants, etc that don't need a lot of time to develop. One Saint slipping means it is over.

NO does run a lot of short crap, but the bad footing could hurt the deeper and intermediate passing game.

I might just stay away with the weather being an x factor.

 

[elrey21]

I see it the way you do shale.

Tampa has been a darling team of mine, and they should have won the 1st matchup except for that crap non holding call for gaines adams in the first game. It was horrible.

Yea except the Bucs didn't convert a 3rd down until the 3rd quarter and had a horrid percentage. Bucs had plenty of chances to come back and win.

 

[winbet]

I cant work out if I'm lucky or not here but Fishhead was right, multiple outs do come good now and again. After getting 46.5 at a slow Book my old mates Paddy Power( who are usually very hard to beat) gave 42.5 on the Over giving a middle. While middling is a frustrating business, once again if Teams play their gameplans there's every chance of getting it. :drink: