as a ML dog player myself, my theory is just the opposite actually. i look for potentially overvalued teams that are laying LESS than a TD (or another key number).
if the books open at above a TD, that's a red flag for potential Saints backers according to my theory in situations like this.
that's a little more a stand than i would take, but it's somewhat understandable. Hawks are coming off a bye, Saints B2B road outdoor games, and Hawks only allowed the Saints 188 yds in their first game. of course, Seattle also beat the Saints in the playoffs 3 years ago as well. sounds like the public is all over Seattle here despite the book's stand.
i don't think brees will play that poorly again but i also think he will have 180 yards on the ground from his backs and i sure as hell will bet they dont outrush their opponent by 100+ yards.
regardless, the line is where it should be. vegas ain't a bunch of dummies no chance this thing belongs any lower than 7.5 but that doesn't dismiss the theory that there is value on the saints moneyline. ravens went up to denver last year. although i think this would be a bigger upset if saints go to seattle and pull it off. aside from letting arizona beat them week 16, they haven't lost at home in 2 years.
regardless, the line is where it should be. vegas ain't a bunch of dummies no chance this thing belongs any lower than 7.5 but that doesn't dismiss the theory that there is value on the saints moneyline. ravens went up to denver last year. although i think this would be a bigger upset if saints go to seattle and pull it off. aside from letting arizona beat them week 16, they haven't lost at home in 2 years.
After the best down Seattle gave the Saints on Monday night earlier in the year, line should be Sea -8.5 or -9
