Saints -3.5 -102 vs TB...opinions

X-Files · Dec 23, 2016

"The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games with their only loss over that stretch coming at the 12-2 Cowboys last Sunday night. While they were able to cover the 6½-point spread, the Bucs probably should have been run off the field after turning it over four times. The Cowboys turned TD’s into FG’s with bad penalties at the wrong time. Despite their recent success, the Bucs offense has been suspect. They've managed to score more than 20 points just once during their five-game winning streak and that was against a Chargers pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. Just two weeks ago in Tampa, the Bucs picked off Saints quarterback Drew Brees three times but could still only muster up 16 points in a win. Opposing offenses have picked on the Saints all season but Winston managed just 184 yards on 16 of 26 completions with no touchdowns."

"The Saints remain alive in the playoff hunt at 6-8 and while their chances aren't great, they should have some extra motivation for this one. New Orleans is a tale of two teams. They typically struggle outdoors on the road but they put up big offensive numbers at home in the dome. The Saints are always capable of putting up big points, as they showed in last week's 48-41 win at Arizona. The Cards' defense ranked fourth in the league before the Saints came to town last week. The Saints also put up over 40 points on a Rams unit that ranked 11th. The Saints' ability to score and extend drives allows their defense time to rest. One can have great success backing Sean Peyton and the Saints in the right spots against defenses that are bound to wear down when facing his unique offense. Tampa Bay does not offer the same opportunity because they simply don’t score enough. We've been scouring the schedule for victims of the Saints and found one last week in the Cardinals and absolutely trust we found another one this week in the Bucs."

http://sportswagers.ca/nfl/

X-Files · Dec 23, 2016

Saints still alive in the playoff hunt? Not according to:

http://predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-23-2016-Standings

Kaveman · Dec 23, 2016

Either way, I can see NO hanging 30+ on the Bucs. Can they score enough to keep up with Brees? Can't count on three picks again. But on the Bucs side, getting the hook there is tempting.

fly73 · Dec 23, 2016

like the 'aints

kouga · Dec 23, 2016

The Saints did not blowout any teams at home this season, except the Rams, and we all know they are awful. If Detroit was able to score 28 points on the road against this weak Saints defense, you can bet that Tampa will score at least 30. Someone might say "hey, but they only scored 16 at home against the very same team" but the Bucs play better on the road and they held the Saints to only 11 points in their previous meeting. The defense will decide the winner once again, and we know that New Orleans has no defense. I see a 34-27 victory for the Buccaneers.

TheComputerGroup · Dec 23, 2016

This is a shady game cause of the line......I see people saying that Bree's should be a fav at home, & maybe so, & maybe Vegas is playing the reverse psychology game like they did last night with the Eagles being a -1.5 pt fav at game time, who knows.

Another game is Bills -4.5, another shady line.......how about the Raiders only being -3.5 at home vs Colts???

Several shady lines out there this week.......

kouga · Dec 23, 2016

The Computer Group said:
This is a shady game cause of the line......I see people saying that Bree's should be a fav at home, & maybe so, & maybe Vegas is playing the reverse psychology game like they did last night with the Eagles being a -1.5 pt fav at game time, who knows.

Another game is Bills -4.5, another shady line.......how about the Raiders only being -3.5 at home vs Colts???

Several shady lines out there this week.......

Why would the line be shady in the Saints game? Tampa Bay was favored by only 2 at home and they won by 5, it makes sense the line is -3, -3.5 for the Saints playing at home. I still think Tampa Bay wins. I think a good bet is taking Buffalo to score over 22.5 points at home against Miami. They failed to score more than 20 points at home only 1 time this season and Miami`s defense it`s not impressive at all.

TheComputerGroup · Dec 23, 2016

kouga said:
Why would the line be shady in the Saints game? Tampa Bay was favored by only 2 at home and they won by 5, it makes sense the line is -3, -3.5 for the Saints playing at home. I still think Tampa Bay wins. I think a good bet is taking Buffalo to score over 22.5 points at home against Miami. They failed to score more than 20 points at home only 1 time this season and Miami`s defense it`s not impressive at all.

Saints have no shot of getting into the playoffs even if they finish 8-8, so that's why I'm questioning why they're favs?

Like the Eagles last night, they were favs & have no shot at the playoffs.

croaker · Dec 23, 2016

TM and NO seem pretty evenly matched, the dome should help both teams. Saints favored by homefield advantage seems about right. IMO slight edge to NO but hard to see any obvious value.

TimmyRules · Dec 23, 2016

Would be interesting to go back a few years and see ATS record of teams that "needed" the win versus those out of playoffs...
Feel like I've lost plenty on playing the teams playing for something...

croaker · Dec 23, 2016

It would be interesting. I remember a couple of years ago Lovie Smith pulling his starters at Tampa Bay when leading at half time to try and preserve number 1 draft slot. Seems that majority of players will continue to play hard regardless of the situation. I don't think you can make it to the NFL with a quitters mentality.

kouga · Dec 23, 2016

The Computer Group said:
Saints have no shot of getting into the playoffs even if they finish 8-8, so that's why I'm questioning why they're favs?

Like the Eagles last night, they were favs & have no shot at the playoffs.

If the opening line was +2 for the Bucs and then move to -3 for the Saints, I would be worried but I was expecting the Saints to be favored at home. Like I said, Tampa Bay was favored by only 2 at home and won that game by 5, and just because a team needs to win it doesn`t mean they are going to win. Even if they have no shot of getting into the playoffs, no one is expecting the Saints will not put forth their best effort to win, just like it happened with the Eagles last night, that`s why they are favored.

Biz · Dec 23, 2016

The Computer Group said:
This is a shady game cause of the line......I see people saying that Bree's should be a fav at home, & maybe so, & maybe Vegas is playing the reverse psychology game like they did last night with the Eagles being a -1.5 pt fav at game time, who knows.

Another game is Bills -4.5, another shady line.......how about the Raiders only being -3.5 at home vs Colts???

Several shady lines out there this week.......

What's shady?

Miami starting a backup QB. The line was -3.5 and it got bet up to -4.5

Why would Oakland be favored by more than 3.5? They were only -3 vs Carolina and Buffalo, and Indianapolis playing well right now. That line is tight.

Tampa Bay a small fav at home, add 6 for home field and its right on point.

TheComputerGroup · Dec 23, 2016

Biz said:
What's shady?

Miami starting a backup QB. The line was -3.5 and it got bet up to -4.5

Why would Oakland be favored by more than 3.5? They were only -3 vs Carolina and Buffalo, and Indianapolis playing well right now. That line is tight.

Tampa Bay a small fav at home, add 6 for home field and its right on point.

The Miami game IMO should be at least a Pk........as for the Raiders, they beat Carolina by 3 & waxed the Bills......& they had a huge lead vs Carolina & let them come back.......I just think this line is shady & IMO, Colts will win SU......then again, I could just be crazy.

TheGeauxt · Dec 23, 2016

mathematically, saints still alive. but by the time they kickoff at 3, that should no longer be the case

jasonc69 · Dec 23, 2016

Tampa Bay's defense made Dallas punt one time last week but somehow stayed inside the number. I don't think they're as fortunate this week. Good luck

MMUSH · Dec 23, 2016

Brees threw 3 picks and no TDs vs bucks 2 was ago and they lost by 5 pts. Saints big

OverThinker · Dec 24, 2016

MMUSH said:
Brees threw 3 picks and no TDs vs bucks 2 was ago and they lost by 5 pts. Saints big

They had 10 penalties too but that said bucs offense also played poorly. So basically you saying it a foregone conclusion that Brees will play better which that fine he most likely will and I'll throw in it doubtful saints commit (or get called for anyway) 10 penalties at home. My problem is for saints to win big you not only making those reasonable assumptions but you going way way out on a limb assuming saints defense will perform well again. The 30th ranked scoring defense held Tampa to under 20, 31st ranked passing yards against held jamis and make Evans in check, 2/3 of this game bucs were on cruise control happy to milk clock and that time of possession advantage really the only thing I think we can expect to remain constant (bucs defense one of best in league getting off field on 3rd down while saints rank near the bottom).. I have no problem agreeing Brees will more than likely play better however he the only qb in this game that is facing a capable defensive front who can pressure a qb into mistakes.

Ill happily give Brees 2tds and even throw in a 3rd instead of 1 of their fgs last meeting. So let's say 24-27 for saints and that fairly high considering divisional matchup against tough front 7. You really don't think jamis can keep up with that score vs this d? He won't see the pressure Irvin single handedly harassed him with last week, jamis a winner and fully expect him to rebound in a game his team needs against a defense a Carson palmer lead team just hung 40 on. I'll happily take the points and shamis vs this d to be able to go toe to toe with Brees who will be facing a better pass rush and likely have limited possessions.

OverThinker · Dec 24, 2016

jasonc69 said:
Tampa Bay's defense made Dallas punt one time last week but somehow stayed inside the number. I don't think they're as fortunate this week. Good luck

All due respect to Saints but Dallas offense was much tougher to stop that night. I'm still pissed dal didn't cover and they should have but only cause Irvin single handedly changed the game coming in and blowing up bucs blocking scheme when jamis was starting to score at will. Who on saints gonna do that? Jamis gonna keep his team in it and bucs will also regain control of time of possession this week.