huh? not sure im following. You 100% out of the market and long the VIX? Or in the market and bought VIX calls as you feel its toppy? There was some big big big block trades on the qqq's in Feb proved ominous for said sector indeed, but i havent seen any nutty repetitive large block trades on the SPY as of yet
that's a very bearish outlook you have. politically driven? or just feel USA is largely KAPUT? 100% cash is a tough go, inflation eats that up. Diversification is our only free lunch. Nutty times for sure and the unbelievable explosion in real estate certainly chnages the future outlook for N America youth/immigrants...not for the good.
The USD is definetely not the shining star it once was, dunno how it plays out.
US Dollar’s Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” Drops to 25-Year Low
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/31/u...global-reserve-currency-drops-to-25-year-low/
anyway , using historical data as a predictive tool , odds are agasint any significant pullback for 2021 . 20% corrections happen every 8 yrs-- had
TWO recently, 2018 debacle and of course the-little-bug debacle of 2020. Dont see it , getting stretched from the 50 SMA on the weekly (SPY), a pullback to test it (10-13%) perhaps, but i think a big ugly catalyst wuold need to present for another 20% or more beatdown (brutal viral variants? ). Good news coming out of Israel regarding the Pfrizer vaccine; Isreal was very aggressive with vaccinations, have just over
50% of their population innoculated and they are looking real good numbers wise , bloody thing might work !! in addition the Pfizer vaccine has been shown to be 100% effective on the S African strain, that is just flat out huge (to have efficacy on variants ) .
Certainly gotta be opening shit up sooner than later, i'd imagine, lol.......twilight zone shit ..........cant play a fuckin ' pick-up shinny game in my neck of the woods!!
SPY
2 yr
WEEKLY
50 SMA
again its getting stretched from the 50 SMA, but it just broke resistance , said resistance is now support assuming continuation. A pullback? a real juicy area would be: 350 ish, that's 12% spot on with the historical average and got confluence at that region; horizontal support and .618 fibo level from the double bottom mid-late Oct 2020. IF it would lose 370, then 350 here we come with good probability
gl