S. Florida/Cincinati trap game

[sportzwhiz]

This is going to be a repeat of what's been happening all year. A televised game with a ranked team going against a what looks like a going down hill team on the road. S. Florida is only favored by -2.5 even though Cincinati got destroyed by UConn in their last game and two Qbs questionable for tomorrow? Yes, S. Florida lost last weekend as well but at least it was close and to a good Louisville team on the road. It looks like the books want the public to take S. Florida.
S. Florida will dominate the first half fooling people to bet on them for the 2nd half. What really happens is that Cincinati will dominate the 2nd half and squeeze out the victory. Just my opinion and a trend I've seen too often. Take Cincinati +2.5 and a little on the ML!
My prediction: Cincinati 27 S. Florida 24

 

[AlwaysKeen]

as you say, should be a great game...anxious to watch this one but won't be playing it...GL sportz whiz...

 

[sportzwhiz]

I agree with ya pags. This game will be interesting and I'm very curious to see if this game goes by the trend I mentioned.

 

[fadethepublic1]

a lil trend that I've noticed on weekday games...

if a team played on a weekday and covered, then they won't cover the next time they play on a weekday. I.E. Houston covered against UAB a few weeks ago. Then, they lost outright to Marshall. Again, Marshall did not cover against cincy when they played on a weekday. Being that Cincy covered that game, So. Florida is supposed to cover tomorrow. Even though I like taking home dawgs on thurs ESPN, this trend is money. Another example, Ohio covered +4.5 last week against temple. They didn't cover this week against Buffalo. You want another...? Louisville covered against K-State one week and lost outright to UConn the very next week (or was it two weeks l8r?). As much as I wanna take Cincy, I think USF wins by 3.

 

[sportzwhiz]

Good point Fade, but S. Florida is a ranked team that the public will be all over tomorrow. That's what the books are trying to do to attract S. Florida bets but the line remains only at -2.5? On covers.com, all the experts are on S. Florida. Not even one vote for Cincinati. Red Flag! Can it be that easy to win with S. Florida? Well, good luck with S. Florida Fade. I still think Cincinati wins outright by 3.

 

[fadethepublic1]

I know what you're saying my friend. You are preaching to the choir, but I just hate going against such a strong trend as this one. Go back and look for yourself. Last week was a good example w/Boise and SJ State. Every good capper was on SJ State, Joe Public was all over Boise. Look what happened there. Now granted the line did move for a second w/BSU game from 7 - 7.5, but went right back down to 7. Another example of this trend was w/Boise. Boise covered first weekday game they played (against LA tech), then didn't cover against UH. Last week they covered against SJ State. Very trippy. I really don't know what to do, cuz I would be all over Cincy before I noticed this. I think I'm gonna just stay away. GL my pal.

As always... aloha.

 

[sportzwhiz]

Good points Fade. Yes, staying away would probably be the best scenario but my gut is telling me Cincinati. Small play of course. Thanks Fade. This should be a fun and interesting game to watch.

 

[brendanjack]

Cinncy has won the last two games vs. South Florida.South Florida always seems to stumble when there ranked on the road late in the season however this game has been penciled in for some time grothe not losing in this spot -2.5 my money on the bulls for 2dimes good luck

 

[billbeater]

the only play on thursdays is home dogs or nothing for the entire year...... its proven money...

gotta wait and see if something is funny here....

 

[ilovefootball+]

I know what you're saying my friend. You are preaching to the choir, but I just hate going against such a strong trend as this one. Go back and look for yourself. Last week was a good example w/Boise and SJ State. Every good capper was on SJ State, Joe Public was all over Boise. Look what happened there. Now granted the line did move for a second w/BSU game from 7 - 7.5, but went right back down to 7. Another example of this trend was w/Boise. Boise covered first weekday game they played (against LA tech), then didn't cover against UH. Last week they covered against SJ State. Very trippy. I really don't know what to do, cuz I would be all over Cincy before I noticed this. I think I'm gonna just stay away. GL my pal.

As always... aloha.

Boise didn't cover against HW then they played against SJ State then covered.
This trend seems very true to me.

 

[709]

a lil trend that I've noticed on weekday games...

if a team played on a weekday and covered, then they won't cover the next time they play on a weekday. I.E. Houston covered against UAB a few weeks ago. Then, they lost outright to Marshall. Again, Marshall did not cover against cincy when they played on a weekday. Being that Cincy covered that game, So. Florida is supposed to cover tomorrow. Even though I like taking home dawgs on thurs ESPN, this trend is money. Another example, Ohio covered +4.5 last week against temple. They didn't cover this week against Buffalo. You want another...? Louisville covered against K-State one week and lost outright to UConn the very next week (or was it two weeks l8r?). As much as I wanna take Cincy, I think USF wins by 3.

That's a very generous 4.5 pts. with Ohio. I remember it was on at 3 at open then to 3.5 at closing. But most of local went up to 4 a max. I got Temple -3.5.hno:

 

[rolltide]

well last two situations that fit what you're saying were a Boise blowout of San Jose and a Florida State win at NC State so the tide has turned on this "trend" set forth by WVU, USC, and BYU

 

[fadethepublic1]

well last two situations that fit what you're saying were a Boise blowout of San Jose and a Florida State win at NC State so the tide has turned on this "trend" set forth by WVU, USC, and BYU

BYU, WVU, USC AND FSU have not played twice on weekdays yet, so you cannot use the trend on them yet. Go back and look who played on weekdays and see if they covered two weeks in a row or consecutively. Louisville was another one that covered against KSU, then lost SU to Uconn, and then came back and covered against memphis. More examples... Cincy covered against marshall previously, marshall covered this past week against Houston. W/Cincy covering the last time they played on a weekday, they're not supposed to cover today. W/USF not covering against Kansas last time they played on a weekday, the trend says... they are supposed to cover today.

All I'm saying is to do what you feel is strongest and also use your capping knowledge too. You can make a case for Cincy also...

<NONOBR>CIN is 12-5 ATS (+8.1 ppg) since November 24, 2001 as a dog after a loss.</NONOBR>

<NONOBR>CIN is 4-0 ATS (+27.6 ppg) since September 11, 2004 as a home dog after a loss on the road.</NONOBR>

<NONOBR>CIN is 4-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) since November 20, 2004 vs. SFL.</NONOBR>

<NONOBR>CIN is 8-2 ATS (+17.3 ppg) since November 07, 1998 as a home dog after a loss.</NONOBR>

<NONOBR>CIN is 7-0 ATS (+20.4 ppg) since September 11, 2004 at home after a loss on the road.</NONOBR>

as always... aloha.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

It will be in the 30's tonight in Cincy and I don't think that helps South Florida either. Love the home dog on thrusday night! Friday night games are completely different since the guys don't have class the next day.

 

[rxman]

This is the bomb!!!

I know what you're saying my friend. You are preaching to the choir, but I just hate going against such a strong trend as this one. Go back and look for yourself. Last week was a good example w/Boise and SJ State. Every good capper was on SJ State, Joe Public was all over Boise. Look what happened there. Now granted the line did move for a second w/BSU game from 7 - 7.5, but went right back down to 7. Another example of this trend was w/Boise. Boise covered first weekday game they played (against LA tech), then didn't cover against UH. Last week they covered against SJ State. Very trippy. I really don't know what to do, cuz I would be all over Cincy before I noticed this. I think I'm gonna just stay away. GL my pal.

As always... aloha.

I live and die by this, and so far it is about 7-1 including NFL and if you go back to last year it is even better. This is my signature play. I don't need no Stats or what ever capping styles. I just need to look to this to win in the long run. GO USF!!!ope:

 

[sdf]

it's a bear trap!!

 

[fadethepublic1]

I stand corrected... WVU have played twice on a weekday. They played earlier in the year agsinst Col and lost SU as favs, then they played last week and covered against Auburn.

There were only three teams that bucked the trend this year...
Oregon St (covered against USC and Utah)
Memphis (did not cover against Utah & Louisville)
Baylor (covered against WASU and Uconn)

More trend info... Uconn did not cover against Baylor, and then covered against UL on the next week day that they played.

 

[fadethepublic1]

I live and die by this, and so far it is about 7-1 including NFL and if you go back to last year it is even better. This is my signature play. I don't need no Stats or what ever capping styles. I just need to look to this to win in the long run. GO USF!!!ope:

The only question now is...

Do you think this trend holds stronger than the dreaded ESPN Thursday nite homedawg trend?

as always... aloha.

 

[LetsGamble]

Also USF lost to pitts on a weekday.

 

[A10Expert]

For what it's worth, I listened to the Brian Kelly show yesterday and he is very resilient, I thought USF could really roll in this, but Kelly is so committed to building the program through big wins like these, I think UC is the play. I don't think he's lost the team or that they're panicked at all...2 cents.