Louisville (5-6, 1-5 Big East) at Rutgers (6-5, 4-2 Big East) - ESPN - 7:45 PM EST
Line: Rutgers -10.5 (Over/Under 52)
Weather Report: 40% Showers (3-6 PM), 30% "Few Showers" (6-11 PM)
While Louisville enters Piscataway in the midst of an unfathomable 4 game losing streak, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights enter their regular season finale on a 5 game winning streak including an 8-0 streak against the spread (if including a -28.5 line against Morgan State). It is because of this streak that Rutgers opened with an inflated line that has finally settled between -10 and -11, a line that is now likely 3 to 4 points off of the -7 where it should be.
The 5 game Rutgers winning streak has surprised virtually everyone in the country except for me. Even at 1-4 I picked Rutgers and laid 18 units, my highest total bet ever on a football game, on Rutgers to cover against Cincinnati in what turned out to be a game decided by only 3 points. At 6-5 Rutgers looks back at this season as bittersweet, as it literally took them until mid-season to shape into form. Had Rutgers opened up this season playing with this high of confidence level, Mike Teel especially, we could have been talking about a Big East Championship here on December 4th, not a possible trip to the Papajohns.com bowl against possibly Arkansas State or NC State.
Yes, you heard right. Even with an unanimous 5-2, 2nd Place conference finish (including losses by Pittsburgh and West Virginia this week), the best it seems as though Rutgers can do is the Papajohns.com bowl, which is a complete joke and needs to be rectified. Despite the large contingent of Rutgers faithful that have packed bowl stadiums for 3 straight years, and despite what could be a 6 game winning streak and an unanimous 2nd Place Big East finish, Rutgers is likely to be shunned by the Sun Bowl, and excluded from the Mieneke Car Care Bowl due to the fact that they have already either secretly or publicly picked 7-5 North Carolina as the ACC representative and bowls normally do not like to choose regular season rematches. This would mark yet another head scratcher for the Scarlet Knights as in 2006 the team was 11-2 overall, 5-2 in the Big East, ranked 15th nationally, and wound up in the Texas Bowl.
Regardless, the key in this matchup for anyone reading this is who will cover the spread. In my opinion the line is inflated toward Rutgers' side, thus I am not playing this game because there are certain teams in certain games that I deem unplayable, and here on Thursday, December 4th, Louisville is one of those teams.
The head Rutgers beat writer Tom Luicci has commented on what a strong week of practice this has been for the Scarlet Knights, and how he compares it to the week before the Cincinnati game in 2005 when the then 6-4 Scarlet Knights needed a big win at home to impress the Insight Bowl Committee. Rutgers won that game 44-9.
Meanwhile Louisville is in a state of disarray. With a beat-up secondary, Louisville is lucky that the weather forecast calls for rain as that could play a role as an equalizer in shutting down what is now a very potent Rutgers passing attack. Louisville's 4 game losing streak has included an unfathomable home loss to Syracuse. Despite their struggles, their offense has been able to move the ball throughout the season although turnovers have normally derailed most of their success.
In this game all signs seem to point to Rutgers, as the 6-5 Scarlet Knight Seniors play their final game in front of the home crowd in what will be a cold, rain-soaked affair in Piscataway. But it is the double-digit line that scares me off in this one, as I think the 8-0 ATS streak for the Scarlet Knights have finally led to their first inflated line since early in the season. I'd caution to stay away, like I am for this one, and the ML has too much juice to warrant a Rutgers play in a game that I think Louisville, if everything goes right, has an actual shot at winning.
Prediction: Rutgers 31 - Louisville 20
Line: Rutgers -10.5 (Over/Under 52)
Weather Report: 40% Showers (3-6 PM), 30% "Few Showers" (6-11 PM)
While Louisville enters Piscataway in the midst of an unfathomable 4 game losing streak, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights enter their regular season finale on a 5 game winning streak including an 8-0 streak against the spread (if including a -28.5 line against Morgan State). It is because of this streak that Rutgers opened with an inflated line that has finally settled between -10 and -11, a line that is now likely 3 to 4 points off of the -7 where it should be.
The 5 game Rutgers winning streak has surprised virtually everyone in the country except for me. Even at 1-4 I picked Rutgers and laid 18 units, my highest total bet ever on a football game, on Rutgers to cover against Cincinnati in what turned out to be a game decided by only 3 points. At 6-5 Rutgers looks back at this season as bittersweet, as it literally took them until mid-season to shape into form. Had Rutgers opened up this season playing with this high of confidence level, Mike Teel especially, we could have been talking about a Big East Championship here on December 4th, not a possible trip to the Papajohns.com bowl against possibly Arkansas State or NC State.
Yes, you heard right. Even with an unanimous 5-2, 2nd Place conference finish (including losses by Pittsburgh and West Virginia this week), the best it seems as though Rutgers can do is the Papajohns.com bowl, which is a complete joke and needs to be rectified. Despite the large contingent of Rutgers faithful that have packed bowl stadiums for 3 straight years, and despite what could be a 6 game winning streak and an unanimous 2nd Place Big East finish, Rutgers is likely to be shunned by the Sun Bowl, and excluded from the Mieneke Car Care Bowl due to the fact that they have already either secretly or publicly picked 7-5 North Carolina as the ACC representative and bowls normally do not like to choose regular season rematches. This would mark yet another head scratcher for the Scarlet Knights as in 2006 the team was 11-2 overall, 5-2 in the Big East, ranked 15th nationally, and wound up in the Texas Bowl.
Regardless, the key in this matchup for anyone reading this is who will cover the spread. In my opinion the line is inflated toward Rutgers' side, thus I am not playing this game because there are certain teams in certain games that I deem unplayable, and here on Thursday, December 4th, Louisville is one of those teams.
The head Rutgers beat writer Tom Luicci has commented on what a strong week of practice this has been for the Scarlet Knights, and how he compares it to the week before the Cincinnati game in 2005 when the then 6-4 Scarlet Knights needed a big win at home to impress the Insight Bowl Committee. Rutgers won that game 44-9.
Meanwhile Louisville is in a state of disarray. With a beat-up secondary, Louisville is lucky that the weather forecast calls for rain as that could play a role as an equalizer in shutting down what is now a very potent Rutgers passing attack. Louisville's 4 game losing streak has included an unfathomable home loss to Syracuse. Despite their struggles, their offense has been able to move the ball throughout the season although turnovers have normally derailed most of their success.
In this game all signs seem to point to Rutgers, as the 6-5 Scarlet Knight Seniors play their final game in front of the home crowd in what will be a cold, rain-soaked affair in Piscataway. But it is the double-digit line that scares me off in this one, as I think the 8-0 ATS streak for the Scarlet Knights have finally led to their first inflated line since early in the season. I'd caution to stay away, like I am for this one, and the ML has too much juice to warrant a Rutgers play in a game that I think Louisville, if everything goes right, has an actual shot at winning.
Prediction: Rutgers 31 - Louisville 20
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