Rutgers +6

[BigDaddyNole]

Rutgers runs the ball better ... they stop the run better and are 7-0 ATS ----- and they're GETTING 6 points vs. Temple???

what am I missing here?

unless there's some compelling reasoning, I'm going to play a 1/2 unit on Rutgers +6 and another 1/2 unit on the ML .....

thoughts?

 

[BigPete]

Looks like a winner!

Rutgers 36/ Temple 26

Rutgers PPG
Offense 29.9
Op Def Avg 24.4
Defense 32.3
Opp Off. 27.6

Off % Changes 1.225409836
Def 1.170289855

Predicted PPG
from Opp D 39.09
from Off 34.43
----------------------
Temple PPG
Offense 19.6
Op Def Avg 22
Defense 31.9
Opp Off. 27.7

Off % Changes 0.890909091
Def 1.151624549

Predicted PPG
28.78
22.94

 

[SharksIV]

rutgers caught my eye also. ive lost twice betting against them with mich st and navy. i see the game as a pickem

 

[Seed]

Hey guys RU fan and grad here...I really love RU in this spot. We have improved greatly from last year and seem to have found a running game (although QB Hart did throw for 380 last week on Pitt since we fell behind early). We have beaten Army, Buffalo and a recently impressive Navy team, we hung with Mich St at their place, hung with WVU at their place and lost by 10 to Pitt. Meanwhile I think Temple has taken a step back from last year and in '02 we lost to them by 3 at home after blowing a sizeable 2nd half lead. I think the reason the spread is as it is is bc I don't think we have ever won a Big East road game. I really see that coming to an end this week. We are the better team and Temple has no home field advantage, maybe there will be 15k in Philly for the game (many being RU fans).

 

[mhk]

Two teams with bad numbers (off, def, effiency, etc), I guess taking the points is the thing to do. Rutgers hasn't been able to run at all vs.Temple last couple of years, though.. Seems to me this should be a closer line...

 

[mws]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Rutgers runs the ball better ... they stop the run better <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Temple's played the tougher schedule and has better numbers against the run, so I don't think the second part of that statement is true. And given the difference in competition, I'm not sure the first part is true. Power ratings say this is a solid line, and Rutgers is in a bit of a letdown situation here, so Temple is probably the hway to go.

 

[bhg]

Temple has been far better on the road then at home this year. There is ZERO home field advantage with Rutgers being so close.

 

[Fingerlakes]

I am a Temple grad. Rutgers wins this game outright.

 

[RX-MANIAC]

Rutgers is one of my Top Plays this week. I use two different sets of Power Ratings & Both Have Rutgers winning this one by 16!

They opened +6..now +4!

I'm playing Rutgers on The $-LINE...w/ no fear at all.


Another Dog to look at is N. ILL +160.


GL--Rx-Maniac

 

[BigDaddyNole]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Temple's played the tougher schedule and has better numbers against the run, so I don't think the second part of that statement is true. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
according to the NCAA Temple has played the #25 ranked schedule and Rutgers the #57 schedule -- BUT, your contention of Temple being better against the run (statistically) is off:
Rutgers gives up 192.4 yards/game and Temple gives up 210.6 yards/game ---- Rutgers gives up 4.5 yards/carry.... Temple gives up 5.0 yards/carry

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Power ratings say this is a solid line <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> --- guess it all depends upon whose ratings you use .... mine point to the wrong team being favored

MHK: the offensive effeciency numbers point towards Rutgers ... defensive have Temple only slightly ahead

 

[silver7]

What skews the sched rating is Villanova 6-0, but not a Div I tm, throw them & Buffalo out of the equation and you get a more balanced view. RU top 3 VT, Pitt & MSt vs Temple Miami, BC & Lvlle. Pretty even. Bottom Navy, Wva & Army vs PSU, Cincy & MTSU. Army IS weak I grant you. Sagarin has them 94 & 95. I`ll take the 6.

 

Well since I live here I might as well give my synopsis:

Temple:

Rutgers:

At least ATS Rutgers is the play. I will have to number crunch before I put money on it but Rutgers has improved. The question is do they crawl back in in the 2nd half or do they win this game from start to finish? Hmm....

 

[mws]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> BUT, your contention of Temple being better against the run (statistically) is off:
Rutgers gives up 192.4 yards/game and Temple gives up 210.6 yards/game ---- Rutgers gives up 4.5 yards/carry.... Temple gives up 5.0 yards/carry <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I'll be damned -- it looks like the stats site I was using has some major errors!

 

[mws]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> What skews the sched rating is Villanova 6-0, but not a Div I tm, throw them & Buffalo out of the equation and you get a more balanced view. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Villanova is maybe 2 TD's better than Buffalo, so throwing out those two isn't really fair, but I have to re-evaluate this one in view of the faulty stats I've been using.

[This message was edited by mws on October 21, 2003 at 10:50 PM.]

 

[silver7]

This # is slowly creeping down to where it should have been in the first place, saw a 4 yeterday. If it gets to 3 I`ll consider a middle. See little to differentiate the 2 so getting 6 a gift.

 

[epper]

Temple has a decent QB and passing O. They should get there 240yds in the air and 150 on the ground. I think both teams roll up around 400yds of O. I do think Rutrgers has gottne much better as a program. Scary things Temple has won the last 4 meetings

 

[BigDaddyNole]

hope everyone else jumped on this one early .......

 

[GreenDoberman]

Rutgers is now 8-0 ATS this year.