Running some gambling numbers- Realistic goals (sad news, IMO)

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"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
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World Number One said:
i wonder if about 20 people here would be willing to put up about 500 bucks each .

they each pick 1000 games ( all - 110 or lower ) over the next year.

whoever can win 600 of them gets it all ...

this individual doesnt think their would be a winner ... not even 570 wins..





:l I will NOT be participating as it would take me almost 10 years to make 1000 plays! :lolBIG: :103631605 LT
 

MrJ

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Ice, that's just a 20k bankroll. Quite small and unlikely to make serious money over a year (you'll need access to ALOT of quality bets, you'll never come up with enough on your own).

Why does this result sadden you? There's nothing wrong with a 10% return over a month. Also consider that growth os exponential so if you made 10% each month then you'll triple your bankroll by the end of the year.
 

CURATOR / MEMBER EMERITUS
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Mr J said:
Ice, that's just a 20k bankroll. Quite small and unlikely to make serious money over a year (you'll need access to ALOT of quality bets, you'll never come up with enough on your own).

Why does this result sadden you? There's nothing wrong with a 10% return over a month. Also consider that growth os exponential so if you made 10% each month then you'll triple your bankroll by the end of the year.
Exactly. You can't just flat bet. Here're some ideas on bet formulas: http://horsestreet.com/products/index.html#Manuscripts

Or you could go the John Patrick parlay route: http://johnpatrickcasino.com/store1.html
 
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wrongturn said:
The question is whether it is worth the time and effort to find scalps. I tried several times comparing the books I use, I got more headaches than scalps. When I did find one, I put one side bet in, the other side moved. Instead of guaranteed $5, I had to cover for a $20 guaranteed loss. Now I would think there are books there that you can find scalps more easily, but are they safe enough? In theory, the profit is guaranteed, but in practise big risks are involved.

The trick is to put the bets in virtually simultaneously
{2 or more open windows}. And have one or two
backup books with scalpable lines in case their is a
move on your first bet. The first bet will be the one
that is off, all the others on. That way it is quite
unlikely to get trapped the way you mention, maybe
1 in 500 times.

Re time & effort, after getting experienced at this one
learns when & where to do it. Then it is not difficult to
spend an hour and make 60 a day with scalps/bonuses.
The potential profit is a lot more if dealing with the less
than rock solid books.
 

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It is similar to stocks - if you think you are going to get rich any time soon doing this you are going bankroll broke real quick - if you bet conservative percentages and you are good you can accumulate a decent banroll over the years - but you really need to get your bankroll up OVER TIME (YEARS) and you can't keep pulling money out - I can't even remember the last time I took ten cents from my bankroll - in my opinion if you could get a bankroll of over 75k and you have a small winning edge you could make some money and enjoy spending some of it - but people with 5 dimes bankrolls betting nickel games ALL end up in the same spot - but this is no way to make a living in my opinion unless you think making living off 30k a year is some great lifestyle 0 the bottom line is this is beyond extremely hard and you are constantly learning and the mistakes cost you money and you will always make mistakes.
 

Siempre vive RX
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Seymour said:
you are constantly learning and the mistakes cost you money and you will always make mistakes.
Truer words were never spoken, Seymour! Poetry. Sad, sobering poetry.
 

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The reason 95% of gamblers (sports or stocks) fail is that they cannot accept a modest return. Always looking to "get rich quick".

The first post states that he would be expecting a $2,000 profit the first month. That is a 10% return per month. That is more than doubling your money every year. If you cannot be happy with that, you are destined to fail.
 

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X-Files said:
Not with bet365 or BI. Can't comment on others.

B365 are one of the worst actually. My limits on account 1 there are terrible (sub $10 on most stuff)
 

Rx Wizard
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ok, after reading my post it didn't quite come out right.

The sad news is for anyone that thinks they will make alot of money (I already understand the realities) without a huge bankroll, they most likely won't. I was just trying to show the math.

My point was if you do an EXCELLENT job you may see these type of results, are you be prepared to put the time in and sweat out these games for this no guarantee?

I, personally know the math and am not one bit turned off by the challenge. Like i have said in the past I do this as much for the chalenge of beating the game of gambling as much as the money I could possibily win.

Just stating that slow and steady (scalping) is the only thing really guarnteed in this. Was just thinking out loud.

Every good gambler I know say gambling is a grind. I was just trying to show that to others
 

Rx Wizard
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Computer Guru said:
The reason 95% of gamblers (sports or stocks) fail is that they cannot accept a modest return. Always looking to "get rich quick".

The first post states that he would be expecting a $2,000 profit the first month. That is a 10% return per month. That is more than doubling your money every year. If you cannot be happy with that, you are destined to fail.

like I said I am not at all turned off by this, I know/knew this before I figured it out. Was just staing it to others.

10% return on your 20k bankroll(which is phenomanal(sp) ) but you are actually putting close to 45k to work for the month and getting around 4% return. Really depends on you look at it. Best thing abut gambling is the leverage it gives your bankroll.
 

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10% return on your 20k bankroll(which is phenomanal(sp) ) but you are actually putting close to 45k to work for the month and getting around 4% return. Really depends on you look at it. Best thing abut gambling is the leverage it gives your bankroll.

My method of determining ROI is how I differ from most gamblers. I look at what I have at the beginning and at the end of a certain timeframe (usually monthly), because the most I can lose is what I started with. I do the same thing with my stocks.

It's like the guy at the roulette wheel who puts $10 on a number and hits and then lets it ride and hits again for $12K and then loses it all on the next spin. When he gets home his wife asks him how he did and he tells her he lost $10.

Like you said, it all depends on how you look at it.
 
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Santo said:
B365 are one of the worst actually. My limits on account 1 there are terrible (sub $10 on most stuff)

I know there are some who've posted saying limits were cut there.
No doubt this is true. I can only relate my own experience that
this is a British book that hasn't cut or booted this scalper. Why
would they, since they are certainly ahead of me.
 

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They've been pretty good on my new account to be fair, but I use it sparingly
 

MrJ

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The sad news is for anyone that thinks they will make alot of money (I already understand the realities) without a huge bankroll, they most likely won't. I was just trying to show the math

It's all relative. 10% a month gives around 300% a year. Starting with a silly bankroll of 10k would get you to a mil in 4 years. IMO that's making alot of money without much of a bankroll, although probally over a longer period you were talking about (you probally meant 10k to 100k in a year, but that can be done). 10%/mo is pretty unrealistic for most though.
 

MrJ

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because the most I can lose is what I started with

I don't like this kind of thinking. The most you can lose is what you currently have. The guy lost $12k as that is what he could've walked away with.

I do agree that ROI could be determined as growth experienced on initial captial.
 

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