Runline versus Moneyline 15 day study Conclusion

[ViewtheFuture]

[FONT=&quot]I’ve tracked every game for the last 15 days using RX opening odds to determine if the ML or the RL is the best bet. The RL seems to be the best selection when playing favorites. Here are the stats.

[/FONT] In 193 games the favorite won the game 109 times for 56%. If you bet the ML to win $100 on every one of these games you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $26,450 for a loss of $1460 for an ROI of –5.23%.

In the 109 games that the favorite won they also covered the RL in 81 games for 74%. If you risked the same amount as the ML bets on the RL you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $27,295.40 for a loss of $614.60 and an ROI of –2.2%.

If you risked a flat amount of $100 on all the RL bets (except if the RL was –110, then risk $110) you would have risked $19,420 with a return of $19,590 for an ROI of 0.88%.

[FONT=&quot]By risking a flat amount on the RL you no longer are risking more on heavy favorites and every game has the same chance of success. The flat RL bets ROI is greater than the ML bets by 6.11%.

[/FONT] I also calculated the returns if you throw out all of the loses by the favorites to determine if the RL is a better bet just on games the favorite won.

ML bets on only the 109 games the favorite won had a risk of $15,650 (risking X to win $100) with a return of $26,550 for an ROI of 69.65%

RL bets risking the same amount as the ML bets had a risk of $15,650 with a return of $27,295.40 (profiting $745.40 more than the ML) for an ROI of 74.41%.

RL bets risking a flat $100 on every bet (except if the RL was at –105 or higher) had a risk of $10,965 with a return of $19590 for an ROI of 78.66%.

[FONT=&quot]As you all can see if you flat bet the RL instead of risking X to win 1 unit on the ML the Return on Investment is always greater and the risk amount is always lower. [/FONT]

 

[bookieskatrina]

good stuff

 

[magillagorilla]

great stuff viewthefuture.I would like to see the stats from say a month or two of runline/moneyline wagering but this is a great writeup.great job

cheers

 

[ViewtheFuture]

Thanks guys. I would also like to see the results over a year or even a few years, but I just can't take the time to do it for that long.

The biggest thing I like about the RL is not the high returns, but rather risking a flat amount on any favorite pick I make. I also don' just play the big favorites in the -150 or above lines on the RL. I like the -120 to -130 faves on the RL because they have the nice paybacks in the +160 to +170 range and have also shown to cover the RL at just as high of a rate as the big favorites.

Also when the favorites lose a couple games you don't take such a beating. If you lose 2 or 3 games at -140 or higher that really piles up on you, but if your flat betting the RL it isn't as bad and when the favorites do start pounding the dogs the loses are re-couped much quicker with the plus odds on the RL. To each his own.

Good luck everyone with whatever you choose. If someone wants to study the next 15 days and we could combine or findings that would also be greatly appreciated.

 

[BetHalfLines]

View the Future...good stuff as has been said. I am curious however, if this was done on an alternate RL for the Dog...for example, today's Cin/Cle game

ML is +175/-205, respectively
RL is +1.5 -120/-1.5 EVEN
ARL is -1.5 +260/+1.5 -320
(all from bookmaker right now)

So, instead of taking Cle -1.5 at EVEN, take Cin -1.5 +260. According to your stats, the underdog won 84/193 games (44%). Many alternate runlines as you'll see are +165 and up. The tops today is +280 right now, and the lowest is the Cubs at +165, since they are currently Even on the ML.

Point being is that if the underdog won 84 of those games, how many of them were one run games? Or, how many times did the underdog win by 2 or more runs. I feel like with your worst odds at +165, and most being an average of +200 and up, that would be the better bet. If my math is right, if the average alternate runline was +200 (which most are higher)...your underdog would have to cover the -1.5 33% of the time to break even. So that means to make a small profit the dog had to win 64/84 games by 2 runs or more. (Obviously a rough estimate, since I don't know the exact numbers on the alternate runlines, but my +200 average I think is very low, thus I think you'd make a larger profit) If you could let me know the stats on the dogs, I'd appreciate it.

Thanks again.

 

[brandonhop33]

Nice write up. Remember it depends on the teams. Some teams have more 1-run games than others.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Today's Alternate Run Line Numbers

All ARL's are -1.5

Ari +170
Chi +165
Cin +260
Col +180
Atl +180
Pit +280
Was +215
Hou +260
Tex +190
StL +170
Mil +165
SF +215
Sea +205
LAD +215

Today's average alternate RL is +205.

 

[woodog22]

Thank for this. You could be seeing more runlines hitting because of interleague play. More chaotic pitching and hitting vs divisional games.

 

[ViewtheFuture]

OccamsRazor provided this link in the previous thread I had about RL's. It is very good information worth checking out.

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/baseball_run_lines.htm

It doesn't show the results for the RL's are as far as money made or lost, but does provide the percentages of covering the RL for 20,000 games. It basically breaks down like this.

Home Favorites covered the RL in 68% of games that they won.
Road Favorites covered the RL in 79% of games that they won.
Home Dogs covered the Alternate RL in 63% of games that they won.
Road Dogs covered the Alternate RL in 74% of games that they won.

I also come up with a useless formula for determining at what percentage you need the favorite to cover the RL when they win to determine if it is a better bet than the ML. It impossible to really know if a team will cover the RL at a 70.2425% clip, but you could look at their past results of covering to see if you like it.

ML/RL conversion<o></o>
A = ML odds (-110)<o></o>
B = ML Return when bet won<o></o>
C = RL odds (+180)<o></o>
D = RL Return when bet won<o></o>
E = Win % needed for RL to be good investment.<o></o>
A + 100 = B<o></o>
(A x C) +A = D<o></o>
(B x 100)/D = E


Example:Using yesterday's RX opening odds
Houston -130 (ML)
Houston +160 (RL)
A = 130(Risk 130 to win 100)
B = 230(130 risked +100 won)
C = 1.60(Decimal odds)
(130 x 1.60) +130 = 338 (D)
(230 x 100)/338 = 68.05%

Conclusion: Houston needs to cover the RL 68.05% of the times that they win for the RL to be an equal bet.

 

[Doug]

What book do the lines come from, used for your experiment ?

 

[ViewtheFuture]

They are the openers on RX free odds page. This is the easiest for tracking purposes. I think they use BetCris family.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Thanks for the response with regards to the Alternate RL. I'll try to start a thread later for tracking this going into the all-star break. Thats a good 17 days or so.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I have learned RL and parlays are the way you win in baseball. It sucks losing a RL by the hook, but over time you will win more money in the long run.

Took two favorites yesterday in the Reds and Indians with only the Indians winning, but with both RL it was a winning night.

 

[quinnsft34]

I have learned RL and parlays are the way you win in baseball. It sucks losing a RL by the hook, but over time you will win more money in the long run.

Took two favorites yesterday in the Reds and Indians with only the Indians winning, but with both RL it was a winning night.

I like when the team I like for a game is a short favorite so the RL is a nice payday. Today I liked the White Sox so really liked the plus 170 on the RL.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I like when the team I like for a game is a short favorite so the RL is a nice payday. Today I liked the White Sox so really liked the plus 170 on the RL.

I'm doing the same thing with the Marlins and Twins tonight. Also elminiates the juice if they lose outright.

 

[Coaster]

Great stuff.
You seem to be a numbers/stats man.........and good!

Here ya go............add in totals!
Over/Under at 10......versus..........8......

You love this don't ya????

Thanxs