RUNLINE -1.5 vs. -1

[focker]

anybody have RL #s regarding how many games the RL of -1.5 has covered vs how many times it lost (not lost SU), but lost cuz the game was won by only 1 run by the favorite??? or better yet, HOME vs AWAY RL covers???

Thanks in advance and HAPPY SUNDAY

 

[SpiderWeb]

I have a database of all the games. Give me a second and I'll see if I can get that info.

 

[SpiderWeb]

Ok, got it.

Through Saturday there have been 1,450 games this year. Of those games, there were 56 cases where an away favorite won by exactly one run, and 186 cases where a home favorite won by exactly one run.

This makes a total of 242 (16.69%) cases where a -1.5 RL would lose but the ML would win.

Is that what you were looking for?

 

[SpiderWeb]

Breaking it down by home and away:

Total Games # Fav Win by 1 run Perc
Home Favorite 1086 186 17.13%
Away Favorite 364 56 15.38%

Let me know if you need anymore stats.

 

[STACKSONDECK]

wow good shit spider

 

[SpiderWeb]

haha, I fuckin love MySQL. I'm glad focker asked this question, cuz it got me thinking that maybe there is something to these stats. For example, I just found out that this losing scenario only happens 6% of the time when favorites are laying 250 or more. I'll let you know if I find out anything else worthwhile.

 

[focker]

SpiderWeb my man.....thats exactly what i was looking for. Let me digest this. Good info and thanks

 

[sparticus]

SpiderWeb good stuff! So what kind of numbers [my stupidity] would it be home -1.5 run favs as to away -1.5 run favs covering,thanks in advance

 

[SpiderWeb]

SpiderWeb good stuff! So what kind of numbers [my stupidity] would it be home -1.5 run favs as to away -1.5 run favs covering,thanks in advance

I'm not sure I really understand your question. Hold on one second as I'm going to post the numbers with a little further breakdown.

 

[sparticus]

We were having a discussion over in LetGoHoosiers thread about this, thanks.

 

[SpiderWeb]

Cases in which specified favorites win by EXACTLY 1 run (2009 games):


Home Favorite -101 to -120 / 328 Games / 48 Occurrences / 14.63%
Home Favorite -121 to -140 / 292 / 60 / 20.55%
Home Favorite -141 to -160 / 198 / 37 / 18.69%
Home Favorite -161 to -180 / 105 / 17 / 16.19%
Home Favorite -181 to -200 / 41 / 8 / 19.51%
Home Favorite -201 or more/ 64 / 16 / 25%


Away Favorite -101 to -120 / 272 Games / 48 Occurrences / 17.65%
Away Favorite -121 to -140 / 141 / 24 / 17.02%
Away Favorite -141 to -160 / 53 / 9 / 16.98%
Away Favorite 161 or more / 14 / 2 / 14.29%


Sorry about the ugly presentation. I don't even know how to make a chart on this forum.

 

[SpiderWeb]

SpiderWeb good stuff! So what kind of numbers [my stupidity] would it be home -1.5 run favs as to away -1.5 run favs covering,thanks in advance

Those numbers just mean that a home team favorite is 1.75% more likely to win by exactly 1 run than an away team favorite.

This would mean, I think, that the RL is generally a slightly better play when utilized for away favorites. I don't have a RL system though, so I'm not 100% sure on this.

 

[sparticus]

Ok spider that is what i was wondering which was the better -1.5 run plays,home or away. Thanks again.