rule changes could affect totals early on...

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I wanted to get a discussion going to see what therx thinks about the rule changes and the affects it could have on totals. Just in case you havent heard there were 2 major rule changes that SHOULD help the defense.

1. there is no force out rule anymore meaning the WR must get both feet down at all times no matter if he is forced out.

2. defensive players will now where headsets just like the Qb does so they will better be able to audible and adjust to what the offense is trying to do.

i'll start with #1. i think people are underrating how much of a difference this could really make. i have seen it happen quite a few times and it will only get more prevalent as defensive coaches will surely teach CB's to wait for the ball to hit the WR's hands if they are right on the sideline and push them right out of bounds. this will hurt the 2 minute offenses IMHO because the defense will be guarding the sidelines much more during that time anyway and this will limit the offenses effectiveness on using the sidelines. it won't be a HUGE difference but it will play a pivotol role in quite a few games IMO and it will obviously only help the defense

#2 could even have more of an effect on the passing game and offenses in general. defensive coordinators will now be able to adjust to teams that use alot of audibles at the lines (colts) and will be able to get in the proper defense much easier then using signals from the sidelines. obviously this could effect the pats as well do to the spygate thing. imagine peyton calling his audibles you use to see the defense still trying to get lined up at the snap because it took to long to get the defensive calls and for the captain to relay it to the rest of the team. it also took away the defensive signal callers (usually MLB) focus from the players on the field because he has to look at the sideline to get the audible. now he can focus 100% of his energy on disecting the play and the d-coordinator can be in his ear constantly telling him any keys he may pick up on the offense or any adjustments that needs to be made on defense. this should also give the defense a big advantage during the 2 minute drill and hurry up offenses that have become in vogue recently. also this should help limit the quick snap stuff Indy and others do because the play should be in much faster and the MLB does not have to take his attention away from the action to see the play call.

i am thinking these rule changes coupled with the fact that offenses are usually behind the defenses initally anyway could make for some great under opportunitites early on before vegas adjusts there lines. i will particually be watching Indy unders as the public thinks of them as a high scoring team with a suspect defense so there totals are always inflated anyways and the rule changes could effect them the most.

i want to see what you guys think about these rule changes and if they will have a league wide effect on scoring. thanks
 

Gaz

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#1 is huge in my opinion. I can recall forceouts on a weekyl basis. The tough part of course was that it essentially came down to a judgement call by the official as to whether he thought the receiver 'could have' come down in bounds. But now every db is going to be pushing the receiver out every chance he gets.
 

sdf

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i think more teams will simply throw over the middle to avoid the force outs. Stupid rule IMO.
 

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Don't like it at all, virtually immposible to throw to the sidelines now, way too easy to push a guy out of bounds.
 

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yea your right #1 is huge i hope that rule gets reversed. its goin to make a big difference
 

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all of the factors you guys mention i agree with and i think will all lead to less scoring league wide. i think this is going to have a HUGE effect on the 2 minute offenses and hurry up offenses. i really think scoring will be down league wide and it might take vegas a few weeks to adjust to the scoring being down which could provide some nice under opportunities early. what is your guys take on how this could effect betting totals early. am i the only one that thinks its a good idea to try hard to find good under bets early?
 

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all of the factors you guys mention i agree with and i think will all lead to less scoring league wide. i think this is going to have a HUGE effect on the 2 minute offenses and hurry up offenses. i really think scoring will be down league wide and it might take vegas a few weeks to adjust to the scoring being down which could provide some nice under opportunities early. what is your guys take on how this could effect betting totals early. am i the only one that thinks its a good idea to try hard to find good under bets early?

I've been playing mainly unders with good teams the first week anyway. The good teams just want to get through preseason without injuries. They seem to take a week or two to get clicking on offense.
 

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I've been playing mainly unders with good teams the first week anyway. The good teams just want to get through preseason without injuries. They seem to take a week or two to get clicking on offense.


i was talking more for the regular season as the preseason is so damn unpredictable (unless you put alot of research into it cause there are alot of good opportunities do to teams phliospohies its just my personal choice to not play the preseason as i am still trying to get a grasp of each team during this time). what do you think about playing unders early when the season starts, obvioulsly if the numbers and situation dictate it
 

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I can recall forceouts on a weekyl basis.
I guess your memory is better than mine because I don't remember "foreouts on a weekly basis". I'm sure the NFL knows how many there were but I'll bet it wasn't one a game.
 

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Don't like it at all, virtually immposible to throw to the sidelines now, way too easy to push a guy out of bounds.
Disagree...the DB's still can't touch the receiver until the ball arrives. Teams will still throw the quick outs in front of DB's.
 

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Disagree...the DB's still can't touch the receiver until the ball arrives. Teams will still throw the quick outs in front of DB's.


it will effect high throws toward the sideline...i have seen the forceout call at least 5 times every week in the NFL...i watch every game either live or the ones i don't catch live i record
 

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more prevalent as defensive coaches will surely teach CB's to wait for the ball to hit the WR's hands if they are right on the sideline and push them right out of bounds.

Agree 100%. Now they have a much bigger target to key in on instead of just the ball. End Zone fade jump routes will be the thing this affects the most.
 

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Agree 100%. Now they have a much bigger target to key in on instead of just the ball. End Zone fade jump routes will be the thing this affects the most.

yup very good point about the end zone fade routes...instead of the CB going up and challenging the WR for the ball he can simply wait for the WR to jump and as soon as he touches the ball, ride his ass out of bounds so he can't get 2 feet down
 

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...i have seen the forceout call at least 5 times every week in the NFL...i watch every game either live or the ones i don't catch live i record
There is no way there were five forceouts a week called for 17 weeks last year. That number is WAY too high...
 

sdf

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one thing this could lead to is more pass interference penalties as DBs try to force guys out but dont have the timing and they end up hitting the WR before the ball gets there.

i do think teams will simply adjust and run more patters down the middle, more slant routes, more screens.....higher % passes equaling more completions

but it will be tough for teams in the 2 minute drill to get the pass to the sideline and get OOB.

again, this is a terrible rule change.

---

i do like they got rid of the incidental 5 yard face mask. sometimes guys hands get on the mask without yanking, pulling or tackling the guy resulting in a 5 yd penalty. i'm glad that one is gone as it is pretty minor and rarely affects the play on the field.
 

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There is no way there were five forceouts a week called for 17 weeks last year. That number is WAY too high...


i was plucking that number out from memory but i GUARANTEE it is not that far off. there probably was about 3-5 per week in the NFL. if you say any different you must not watch EVERY game like i do. i have seriously watched EVERY NFL game the past 4 years
 

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I agree about #1, terrible rule change. And yes, it happened frequently last year from what I recall. The mos exciting thing in football is the last 2 minutes with a team trailing by 3 to 7 points. Now that offense is going to be seriously hampered with this rule, as the defence will be able to take the sidelines away.
 

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I don't think that the force-out rule is too bad. The receivers may get to play with DBs' heads and have better cuts. We won't know until the rule has been in effect for a while. There's been a few times where my parlays have dumped because they called it the "wrong" way for force-out. This way I can at least have peace of mind whether or not the guy was gonna touch down correctly and in-bounds.
 

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I agree about #1, terrible rule change. And yes, it happened frequently last year from what I recall. The mos exciting thing in football is the last 2 minutes with a team trailing by 3 to 7 points. Now that offense is going to be seriously hampered with this rule, as the defence will be able to take the sidelines away.


you are correct sir!! i also remember a decent number of games where the majority of the scoring occurred in these 2 minute situations. the defense will clearly have a bigger advantage now when compared to prior years due to these rule changes. i am going to research the % of points scored in 2 minute situations and if anyone happens to have that info on hand or know where to get it that would be appreicated...if not i have to do it the hard way but i think it will be worth it!!
 

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