Rove's Final Map

[BetIt]

 

[primetime21+]

Looks like the race is really tightening!!

 

[Redneckman]

That's my exact map, except McCain should eek out Ohio.

 

[eek.]

uuuhh...what am I doing in Ohio?

 

[Redneckman]

There's also rumors at hedgehogreport.com that both McCain's and Obama's internals have McCain pulling ahead in Pennsylvania. That could flip the election if true, as I can't believe if McCain is going to win Pennsylvania, that he won't pull out Virginia also. Which brings the election down to basically Florida.

 

[Redneckman]

McCain has a great history of overachieving in New Hampshire also, and Obama a record of underachieving there. I think McCain is getting underpolled there by at least 5 to 7 points.

 

[D2bets]

There's also rumors at hedgehogreport.com that both McCain's and Obama's internals have McCain pulling ahead in Pennsylvania. That could flip the election if true, as I can't believe if McCain is going to win Pennsylvania, that he won't pull out Virginia also. Which brings the election down to basically Florida.

Explain to me why their "internals" would be so different from all of the "externals"?

Polling Data

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>MoE</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/27 - 11/02</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>51.3</td><td>43.7</td><td class="spread">Obama +7.6</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen</td><td>11/01 - 11/01</td><td>700 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>52</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>10/31 - 11/02</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>51</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">PPP (D)</td><td>10/31 - 11/02</td><td>1529 LV</td><td>2.5</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Reuters/Zogby</td><td>10/30 - 11/02</td><td>602 LV</td><td>4.1</td><td>54</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Morning Call</td><td>10/29 - 11/02</td><td>617 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>52</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/29 - 10/31</td><td>700 LV</td><td>3.8</td><td>51</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">ARG</td><td>10/29 - 10/31</td><td>600 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>51</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>10/27 - 11/02</td><td>1493 LV</td><td>2.5</td><td>52</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +10</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>10/27 - 10/29</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>49</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +5</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">NBC/Mason-Dixon</td><td>10/27 - 10/28</td><td>625 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>47</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen</td><td>10/27 - 10/27</td><td>500 LV</td><td>4.5</td><td>53</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Marist</td><td>10/26 - 10/27</td><td>713 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>55</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">InAdv/PollPosition</td><td>10/26 - 10/26</td><td>588 LV</td><td>3.8</td><td>51</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CNN/Time</td><td>10/23 - 10/28</td><td>768 LV</td><td>3.5</td><td>55</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[gtc08]

McCain has momentum in PA. McCain in PA is the equivalent of being down 14 with 2 minutes left and no timeouts.

But he's scored like 14 straight to come back from 28 to 14. Making noise, but the winner is still certain.

 

[Redneckman]

D2, if you knew anything about state polls, Mason Dixon is the gold standard, and that is a stale poll by now. Wait and see.
Pretty damn stupid is you ask me that Murtha calls his constituents rednecks and racists, and the Messiah says he's going to bankrupt the coal industry. Ed Rendell himself saw the state slipping away over a week ago, begging Obama to spend more resources there.

 

[The Guesser]

McCain +700 at WSEX in PA. Go get the Free money on McCain if you actually belive in what you say.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Pretty much see it the same except McCain takes Florida.