Round 2 NCAA Tourney Selections

[jaypaw]

I am probably asking for a beating but again I only like one dog in this whole round that I'm willing to play: thats wake at +2.5

Love these but I'm not playing them right off the bat:
OKState -2
Texas -2.5
GT -4.5
Kansas -4

Tech and Kansas not so much as the other two - I dont know how Nevada and UAB got to where they are and that alone scares me. But I also know that now that these guys have some time to prepare these two teams wont be taking anyone by suprise, so it may be tougher for them to breeze through this weekend than it was for them to get by last weekend...

If you've read any of my opinions you'll see that its no secret that I like the strength of the Big 12 - and especially now that Texas and OKState are playing with a week to prepare.

Xavier has been on an adrenaline high since they won their conference and I think Texas is for sure a big step up depth wise from Louisville and Mississippi State. Also in an unrelated note has anyone looked at the xavier roster and seen how many guys they have whos last name begins with the letter C? What gives?



15W-7L in conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

Postseason totals:
21W-17L



Overall

112wins-97losses on the season
(56 for 92 ATS)
(27 for 40 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[truelyhandicapping]

finally some one posting some plays.
outstanding

i got wake forest, nevada, ill, and vandy as the dog plays.

my big 10 unit plays will be the cuse, texas, kansas.

i like okie st. myself, but my system has pitt, and unfortunately the system has gone 7-0 with this type of matchup. 1st and 2nd round action.

still have a few days to get some capping in, maybe a rainbow will appear to bring some cheer to the day.

 

[jaypaw]

no system is 100% - I'd like to know more about it though.

Hopefully if I bet on this game then this will be where the 7-0 turns to 7-1... and if not then I gotta get my hands on that system

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i wish shit was 100%.

this going to be a great game. and i really like what the big 12 has done overall in this tourney. i think 8-0 ats, with only texas tech losing su. wow. pretty damn impressive.

i think the big east is overrated along with the acc. if i had to pick a team to win it all, i would have to go with okie state right now.

as far as the system goes, it is 7-0, and breaking it down even further, it is a 2-0 with uab beating washington, and pitt beating wisky.
this is the closest my system has been to play's like this, the pitt wisky game the diff was 15, and the uab the diff was around 30. this one looks to be around 2 or 3. pretty tight.

what a tough game for pitt to win at milwaukee. god that place was loud, i think that was one of the loudest games i've heard on tv for a second round game, maybe even a championship game.

i think this game will be in the high 50's or low 60's. just outstanding guard play on both sides. if i knew if the really j paige would show up, then i would stick with pitt.

how can you bet against lucas though, man that kid hits big shot after big shot. and allen is a great player too.


lets not forget, this game is in east rutherford. that is so huge, basically a home game. will there be to much pressure on pitt in front of the home crowd, or does it help them.

 

[jaypaw]

Going with these two bets for now -

Play now think later:

OkState -2

ND ML -241 (ouch - then again how can they lose [famous last words])

 

[truelyhandicapping]

HEY JAYPAW

JUST TO LET YOU KNOW ND IS PLAYING AT A NUETRAL SITE TONIGHT, IN FORT WAYNE.

AND I ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION ABOUT ND -23 IN MY THREAD. HOPE IT MAKES SENSE.

 

[jaypaw]

sure it works for me


Best of luck to you tonight and going forward!

 

[jaypaw]

going with Nebraska +6 -186

if anyone is interested in an excellent discussion of the issues see the following threads:

http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=802099163&m=479107621

http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=802099163&m=385100721


However far apart the opinions are in the two places for whatever reason I gotta say that it has made for a damn good analysis of tonights hawaii neb matchup.


I initially leaned hawaii when I heard about the nebraska travel troubles but as anyone who is reading this thread probably knows by now - one of the first things I look at is who the teams have played night in and night out, and to me just a glance at that provides evidence of how strong this nebraska team is.

If this game were on the US shore somewhere I would sell points on nebraska to win by between 4 and 7...

but the travel thing is a big deal and I imagine it will have an impact on the team - but I think they wont get blown out, they have just come too far.

Thus I take Nebraska and buy the points.

PS this was a situation where I would have bought them at bodog but for some reason it wont let me buy points on this game... anyone know why?

Pinnacle really jams me with juice on buying points - anyone know of a book that puts out lines as early as pinny but doest shove juice down your throat to do it?

GL to all

 

[jaypaw]

Pending:

Nebraska +6 -186
Future bet - any team other than uconn or duke to win it all +600

15W-7L in conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

NIT 1W-0L
ND ML win -241 (1 for 1)

Postseason totals:
22W-17L



Overall

113wins-97losses on the season
(56 for 92 ATS)
(27 for 40 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[truelyhandicapping]

hey i like that future bet.

pretty cool.

 

[jaypaw]

I got it at bodog over a month ago

I'll have to look it up to see when i posted it



it was only up for a short time and I was like DAMN


so I hopped in on it.

I hope duke gets reamed by illinois for a number of reasons now...

and Im sorry to say but Uconn will have to start up now with some tough competition - and it will be sad to see them go out with okafor on the bench if he hurts his back again.

but on the bright side - thats probably what will happen and it will be great for my last win of the year...

hopefully

 

[Matt24]

Hope Duke gets reamed as well, and Illinois is capable of doing it. Take a look at this team and bet them to win it all next year. They return EVERYONE!

 

[truelyhandicapping]

hey michi looks pretty good also

don't you think

 

[jaypaw]

Hey truely - how bout that nebraska bet - I was right on thanks to input from you and cocap.



Pending:

W - Nebraska +6 -186
Future bet - any team other than uconn or duke to win it all +600

15W-7L in conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

NIT 2W-0L
ND ML win -241 (1 for 1)
Nebraska (bought 3 -186)

Postseason totals:
23W-17L



Overall

114wins-97losses on the season
(56 for 92 ATS)
(28 for 40 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [1 at -186]))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[jaypaw]

Iowa State +11.5 -191

the discussions around here have gotten so much better that my decisions are being made for me - not that I wont take credit for this pick but I do have to admit a bit of a coattail mentility today


as stated elsewhere my thinking is that iowa state has been playing better recently beating georgia and hanging with what soon may be the ncaa tourney champs (if they can get by pitt)

they havent been blown out much - though TTU and missouri have done so, those teams can handle being favored.


the juice is even worse at pinny on this one today but its too many points to let go - under 10 I'll say maybe but even at -190 with the points well over 10 I'm in.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

your 28 for 40 record buying points is that 3 points, or some less.

curious as your record when buying that many points. i dont think i have seen you lose yet buying threee points.

i know if i would buy three points every game i would have alot more wins, and i don't know if the juice would of cost me any money.

i might just go figure it out.

pretty damn curious about it.

what is the juice for buying points? is each game diff, or all the same. respond when you get time. no rush since i can't do it anyway, but maybe next year.

 

[jaypaw]

Pending:
Future bet - any team other than uconn or duke to win it all +600

15W-7L in conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

NIT 2W-0L
W - ND ML -241 (1 for 1)
W - Nebraska (bought 3 -186)

Postseason totals:
23W-17L



Overall

115wins-97losses on the season
(56 for 92 ATS)
(29 for 41 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [2 at -186]))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i have a money line for you my pal



michigan. 10 unitys

 

[jaypaw]

you make an excellent point truely - I never would have picked that up. You are correct there have been some games that I have bought a half a point or 1.5 or 2. I put down that I buy points but I figured when I started keeping track I'd eventually start a new line for how many but I just left it at:

(29 for 41 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [2 at -186]))


To explain the juice ( i hope you dont mind if I elaborate it will be good for me just to review this for myself just as an excercise) - when I say -170, I'm sure you know that means that the bet pays out 100/170, meaning if I were to try to win 100 bucks then I would have to bet $170, or that the bet pays out 10/70 or 58% of the amount I wager in other words. So if I put down 100 I would only win 58 bucks... If I put down 170 I would win 100 bucks.

A regular bet of -110 or what I refer to as ATS for lack of a better term, pays out 100/110, or (doing the math again) 10/11 or 90.9% of the amount wagered.



In ATS bets, my best category, I am 56 for 92. That is about 61%. So Assuming I bet 100 dollars per game (I dont always bet 100 bucks a game - in fact I normally only bet like 50 bucks a game sometimes more - but the concept works better to explain if I use 100) I will have wagered a total of $9,200, won $5,090.9 (56*90.91), and lost $3,600 (36*100), a net result of $1,490.0. In bets like these that pay out 90.9% of the amount wagered, I only need to win 53% in order to come out ahead.


I drop off playing the other bets though. Buying the 3 pts (normally I do so at bodog but lately pinnacle because their lines are up earlier and they let you buy on almost all games, at a price however) my record is 29 for 41, 70.7%. I've lost 12 bets so take 1200 out of the equation right away. I won 4 at -184 (betting 400 paying out 54.3% wins 217.4), won 2 at -186 (betting 200 paying out 53.8% wins 107.53), and won 23 at -170 (betting 2300 paying out 58.8% wins 1353). A total about bet of 2900, total amount won of 1678, total amount lost of 1200, and a net of $478.
These bets I have to win more like 64% to come out ahead, I just beat that out by about 6%.


That is where the black in stops and the bleeding starts. IN ATS bets (-110) and buying points (from -170 to -186) I'm up $1,968.

On the 4 team 10 pt teasers I'm 11 for 23 or winning 48%, and they pay out -120 or 83.3% of amount wagered which means I need to hit 55% to come out ahead. Bet 2300 won 916, lost 1200, net -$283.

Now up only $1685

I've lost 19 multiple team ML parlays and 13 ML bets for a loss of 3200 bucks, winning only 19 of those bets paying out a total (if my math is right) of 1824, a net loss of (-)$1376.

In the end I am lucky to be up a grand total net of (a theoretical) 309 bucks on the season.



what was the question?

 

[truelyhandicapping]

YOU KILL ME


question is

first thanks for explain the points but i understand the 100 to 170.

first question is for each full point you buy, what is the juice.

so if the game is a normal 110 to win 100.
now you buy a point and you want to win a hundred what is the amount of money you have to lay to win 100. -120, or -130, ect.

you might of answered this but i got confused with all the numbers.

one more question coming