[h=1]Ranking the top five QB prospects[/h][h=3]This is a weaker class overall, but there is still depth and potential No. 1 pick[/h]By Ron Jaworski | ESPN Insider
There's still plenty of time and plenty of evaluation to be done before the National Football League's 2014 draft, but a few things are clear about this year's crop of quarterbacks.
First and foremost, forget the hype you might have heard about this group coming into the season. This is not the 2012 class that featured Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. There's potential here, but nothing I think teams will move heaven and earth to try to snag at the top of the draft like we saw with the Redskins and Griffin. There are good QBs, but they have flaws and will need work and time to develop into NFL-caliber quarterbacks.
That doesn't mean this crop of QBs is barren, though. I actually think it has a lot of depth. There could be 12 to 13 guys drafted, but no one is really taking the bull by the horns and blowing me away. I think there are some holes in each of their games, but that doesn't mean they won't be great pros.
You may recall that I previously said I wouldn't take Johnny Manziel in the first three rounds of the draft. I've softened that stance a little bit -- we'll get to that below -- but I'm still of the mind that he presents too big of a risk to select with your Round 1 pick. In fact, after breaking down the film, only Blake Bortles of UCF stands out to me as a prospect who is clearly worthy of a first-round pick (although others may very well be drafted in the first round of this year's draft).
Below you'll find my top five prospects in this QB class. It should tell you something that my No. 2 quarterback is something of a wild card. That said, let's start my draft QB countdown at No. 5.
[h=3]5. Derek Carr, Fresno State Bulldogs[/h]
The more I look at Carr, the more I like him. First I looked at a few games in 2012 against San Diego State, New Mexico, Nevada. Then I moved on to 2013 and I saw a very different quarterback. I could see the growth; he handled pressure a lot better than in 2012. Likewise, I didn't think he had really good drive on the ball back then. But this season, I could see the big arm, the NFL skill set. I could see the flashes of precision throws. He flicked balls 55-60 yards downfield just on arm strength. He has easy effort with his throwing motion. There were a number of times where he could turn it loose and throw a laser 20 yards.
And it's not just about his velocity. I love his ball placement. When I see a QB miss throws, it's not always a huge strike against him. It matters where he misses, and that's the case with Carr. When he misses, he misses away from the coverage. Those are misses that aren't going to hurt, and it backs up an impressive stat: 113 touchdowns and only 24 interceptions.
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Overall, Carr is a prototypical NFL passer. He's big, strong and can stay in the pocket to deliver the football. He'll have to deal with a muddier pocket in the NFL than he did at Fresno State, since he played out of a spread style offense, but he also has some functional mobility to escape it. And also, quarterbacks who know how to protect the football always have value in the National Football League. Carr may never put up the same numbers he did with the Bulldogs, but his mechanics and approach to the game should translate at the next level.
[h=3]4. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies[/h]
He's moved up from my initial evaluations, largely due to his impressive pro day performance. I do love the energy he brings to the football field. But all of these college highlights are not magic, and they'll only be replicated at the NFL level with arm strength and accuracy. I saw some of those attributes stand out a little more at his pro day, so I moved him up a little on my board.
The thing about pro days is that everything is scripted. The conditions are set in favor of the prospect, so you need to take it with a grain of salt. You need to figure out what is real and what you'll get at the next level in NFL game situations. That said, he was definitely impressive. I thought this was an outstanding pro day. He dispelled some of the negative thoughts I had regarding his mechanics and how he was off-balance too much on film. I know there was no defense, there was no one rushing him except for a broom a couple of times, but he showed the ability to move, stay balanced and deliver the football.
The two things I really look for from prospects -- and particularly from Manziel -- I call the Killer B's: balance and ball control. He showed those things at his pro day. His throwing slot was more consistent, and he had clearly accepted the coaching from his personal QB instructor, George Whitfield. That was important to me. I would have liked to see more throws down the seam, some more stick throws, but he wasn't asked to do that.
All in all, he was outstanding. He was on par with Bortles' pro day and better than Teddy Bridgewater's. But remember, pro days are just one element of the evaluation.
I said earlier I wouldn't take him in the first three rounds, which was based on five games' worth of film study -- his last four games at A&M and the earlier game against Alabama. I just didn't see many qualities in his game that put him in the first two rounds. I think there's a way you have to play QB in the NFL: from the pocket, with consistency. The NFL is about the pre-snap reads, diagnosing as you drop back and getting the ball out of your hand early, on time for the receiver. Manziel didn't do that on film. He held the ball too long and took some big hits as a result. Can he withstand that kind of punishment in the NFL? And is it worth risking your Round 1 pick to find out? I would have liked to see him stay in school. He is a wild playmaker, but that doesn't project to the NFL game seamlessly. I would have liked to see him be a calm QB for a season, and he still left a lot of plays on the field in 2013.
His pro day definitely helped him in my eyes, and he moves up a little bit in my estimation, but I still wouldn't take him in Round 1. I still see him as a bit of a project. He's worth investing in, but not at the cost of an early pick.
[h=3]3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville Cardinals[/h]
He had a down pro day, and as previously mentioned, in an environment when everything should be stacked in a player's favor, that's a little disconcerting. Those wobbly throws we saw probably hurt his stock a bit. He struggled with accuracy; he struggled with velocity on sideline throws. I thought it was a definite step backward. The question NFL teams will want answered before draft day is: "Why?" Why was the pro day so lackluster?
That's what's disappointing with Bridgewater. I don't know why he struggled, but the bottom line was the ball didn't come out with velocity and accuracy. He also struggled with mechanics, which I thought was his strength coming in. Those NFL scouts and GMs in attendance want to leave feeling like that guy aced the test. I didn't get that vibe with those there to see Bridgewater. But just like a pro day can only help a player so much, similarly it can only do so much damage. And I still believe Bridgewater is the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. The film showed that the body of work is there, but he'll need to wow some NFL teams in workouts if he's going to maximize his draft stock.
I still like him as a prospect, though. Bridgewater sets protection at the line of scrimmage. He's got excellent mechanics. He reads defenses. All of those aspects are things you have to do at the NFL level. He's shown he can do that. He might not be the No. 1 pick in the draft, but he's got a good developmental curve ahead of him.
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[h=3]2. Zach Mettenberger, LSU Tigers[/h]
He's the wild card for me in this draft. We're going to find out at his pro day (April 9) how he is healthwise coming off of ACL surgery. But looking at the tape, I see an NFL skill set.
Scott Brunner is coaching him up. Brunner is the same guy who worked with Joe Flacco coming out of college. I see very similar traits between Mettenberger and Flacco.
At 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, he has the size teams want. I want to see more at his pro day, but he has a big arm on tape. He can make every throw from the pocket. That said, he's a little inconsistent and he struggles at time with his footwork. But I can see him working with Brunner and with Tigers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron down in LSU, and I see a guy who can work the play-action game and the isolation routes to the outside, just like Flacco can. Mettenberger has a good three-step drop, good five-step drop, and those are pro concepts.
Moreover, he looked like an NFL QB in the offense in which he played. The level of competition in the SEC helps too. Every day in practice he saw an LSU defense with pro defensive concepts. He ran NFL route concepts and progressions, and that's a big reason I like him projecting him to the NFL.
The concern is all about the knee. He probably won't be 100 percent, but if he drops some jaws, he could make the first day of the draft very interesting.
[h=3]1. Blake Bortles, UCF Knights[/h]
I watched all the tape and studied his game, and I think he projects nicely in the NFL. When I saw him down in Orlando for his pro day, the ball exploded out of his hand. He's 6-5, 232 pounds, great size for an NFL QB, and he's mobile. When the play breaks down, he can make plays with his legs. That complete package is why he's my top QB in this draft class.
On film, the first thing you see is his stature. He looks like an NFL QB, that Andrew Luck look. There were some things I wanted to see in his pro day workout: I wanted to see him drive the ball to the outside, because I thought at times he was an arm thrower on tape. I wanted to see him sequence his feet, front knee, hip and arm -- and he did. I thought his lower-body mechanics could use work, and he showed improvement at his pro day after working with Jordan Palmer. His release was quick and snappy, which also looked improved.
I saw Bortles two days after Bridgewater's pro day, and after five throws you could see the difference between him and Bridgewater. Bortles showed it all: a good arcing deep ball, 20-yard digs, sideline comebacks, checkdowns. I was very impressed.
I think the Houston Texans should take Bortles with the No. 1 overall pick, and his pro day really influenced that opinion. I wasn't sure he was the best QB before then. But you talk about the accuracy, the touch and, of course, the arm strength and he's got it all. I think he has a great future ahead of him, and if you need a QB like the Texans do, I think he's going to be a good one.
Of course, the question that will determine everything is where the Texans have him on their draft board. I look at Bortles and I see a quarterback in the mold that is favored by new head coach Bill O'Brien. But I could say something similar for Mettenberger. And if the Texans think they can get Jadeveon Clowney at No. 1 and their top-rated QB at No. 33 ... well, that just makes for a more interesting draft in May.
There's still plenty of time and plenty of evaluation to be done before the National Football League's 2014 draft, but a few things are clear about this year's crop of quarterbacks.
First and foremost, forget the hype you might have heard about this group coming into the season. This is not the 2012 class that featured Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. There's potential here, but nothing I think teams will move heaven and earth to try to snag at the top of the draft like we saw with the Redskins and Griffin. There are good QBs, but they have flaws and will need work and time to develop into NFL-caliber quarterbacks.
That doesn't mean this crop of QBs is barren, though. I actually think it has a lot of depth. There could be 12 to 13 guys drafted, but no one is really taking the bull by the horns and blowing me away. I think there are some holes in each of their games, but that doesn't mean they won't be great pros.
You may recall that I previously said I wouldn't take Johnny Manziel in the first three rounds of the draft. I've softened that stance a little bit -- we'll get to that below -- but I'm still of the mind that he presents too big of a risk to select with your Round 1 pick. In fact, after breaking down the film, only Blake Bortles of UCF stands out to me as a prospect who is clearly worthy of a first-round pick (although others may very well be drafted in the first round of this year's draft).
Below you'll find my top five prospects in this QB class. It should tell you something that my No. 2 quarterback is something of a wild card. That said, let's start my draft QB countdown at No. 5.
[h=3]5. Derek Carr, Fresno State Bulldogs[/h]
The more I look at Carr, the more I like him. First I looked at a few games in 2012 against San Diego State, New Mexico, Nevada. Then I moved on to 2013 and I saw a very different quarterback. I could see the growth; he handled pressure a lot better than in 2012. Likewise, I didn't think he had really good drive on the ball back then. But this season, I could see the big arm, the NFL skill set. I could see the flashes of precision throws. He flicked balls 55-60 yards downfield just on arm strength. He has easy effort with his throwing motion. There were a number of times where he could turn it loose and throw a laser 20 yards.
And it's not just about his velocity. I love his ball placement. When I see a QB miss throws, it's not always a huge strike against him. It matters where he misses, and that's the case with Carr. When he misses, he misses away from the coverage. Those are misses that aren't going to hurt, and it backs up an impressive stat: 113 touchdowns and only 24 interceptions.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Overall, Carr is a prototypical NFL passer. He's big, strong and can stay in the pocket to deliver the football. He'll have to deal with a muddier pocket in the NFL than he did at Fresno State, since he played out of a spread style offense, but he also has some functional mobility to escape it. And also, quarterbacks who know how to protect the football always have value in the National Football League. Carr may never put up the same numbers he did with the Bulldogs, but his mechanics and approach to the game should translate at the next level.
[h=3]4. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies[/h]
He's moved up from my initial evaluations, largely due to his impressive pro day performance. I do love the energy he brings to the football field. But all of these college highlights are not magic, and they'll only be replicated at the NFL level with arm strength and accuracy. I saw some of those attributes stand out a little more at his pro day, so I moved him up a little on my board.
The thing about pro days is that everything is scripted. The conditions are set in favor of the prospect, so you need to take it with a grain of salt. You need to figure out what is real and what you'll get at the next level in NFL game situations. That said, he was definitely impressive. I thought this was an outstanding pro day. He dispelled some of the negative thoughts I had regarding his mechanics and how he was off-balance too much on film. I know there was no defense, there was no one rushing him except for a broom a couple of times, but he showed the ability to move, stay balanced and deliver the football.
The two things I really look for from prospects -- and particularly from Manziel -- I call the Killer B's: balance and ball control. He showed those things at his pro day. His throwing slot was more consistent, and he had clearly accepted the coaching from his personal QB instructor, George Whitfield. That was important to me. I would have liked to see more throws down the seam, some more stick throws, but he wasn't asked to do that.
All in all, he was outstanding. He was on par with Bortles' pro day and better than Teddy Bridgewater's. But remember, pro days are just one element of the evaluation.
I said earlier I wouldn't take him in the first three rounds, which was based on five games' worth of film study -- his last four games at A&M and the earlier game against Alabama. I just didn't see many qualities in his game that put him in the first two rounds. I think there's a way you have to play QB in the NFL: from the pocket, with consistency. The NFL is about the pre-snap reads, diagnosing as you drop back and getting the ball out of your hand early, on time for the receiver. Manziel didn't do that on film. He held the ball too long and took some big hits as a result. Can he withstand that kind of punishment in the NFL? And is it worth risking your Round 1 pick to find out? I would have liked to see him stay in school. He is a wild playmaker, but that doesn't project to the NFL game seamlessly. I would have liked to see him be a calm QB for a season, and he still left a lot of plays on the field in 2013.
His pro day definitely helped him in my eyes, and he moves up a little bit in my estimation, but I still wouldn't take him in Round 1. I still see him as a bit of a project. He's worth investing in, but not at the cost of an early pick.
[h=3]3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville Cardinals[/h]
He had a down pro day, and as previously mentioned, in an environment when everything should be stacked in a player's favor, that's a little disconcerting. Those wobbly throws we saw probably hurt his stock a bit. He struggled with accuracy; he struggled with velocity on sideline throws. I thought it was a definite step backward. The question NFL teams will want answered before draft day is: "Why?" Why was the pro day so lackluster?
That's what's disappointing with Bridgewater. I don't know why he struggled, but the bottom line was the ball didn't come out with velocity and accuracy. He also struggled with mechanics, which I thought was his strength coming in. Those NFL scouts and GMs in attendance want to leave feeling like that guy aced the test. I didn't get that vibe with those there to see Bridgewater. But just like a pro day can only help a player so much, similarly it can only do so much damage. And I still believe Bridgewater is the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. The film showed that the body of work is there, but he'll need to wow some NFL teams in workouts if he's going to maximize his draft stock.
I still like him as a prospect, though. Bridgewater sets protection at the line of scrimmage. He's got excellent mechanics. He reads defenses. All of those aspects are things you have to do at the NFL level. He's shown he can do that. He might not be the No. 1 pick in the draft, but he's got a good developmental curve ahead of him.
[h=3]
[h=3]2. Zach Mettenberger, LSU Tigers[/h]
He's the wild card for me in this draft. We're going to find out at his pro day (April 9) how he is healthwise coming off of ACL surgery. But looking at the tape, I see an NFL skill set.
Scott Brunner is coaching him up. Brunner is the same guy who worked with Joe Flacco coming out of college. I see very similar traits between Mettenberger and Flacco.
At 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, he has the size teams want. I want to see more at his pro day, but he has a big arm on tape. He can make every throw from the pocket. That said, he's a little inconsistent and he struggles at time with his footwork. But I can see him working with Brunner and with Tigers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron down in LSU, and I see a guy who can work the play-action game and the isolation routes to the outside, just like Flacco can. Mettenberger has a good three-step drop, good five-step drop, and those are pro concepts.
Moreover, he looked like an NFL QB in the offense in which he played. The level of competition in the SEC helps too. Every day in practice he saw an LSU defense with pro defensive concepts. He ran NFL route concepts and progressions, and that's a big reason I like him projecting him to the NFL.
The concern is all about the knee. He probably won't be 100 percent, but if he drops some jaws, he could make the first day of the draft very interesting.
[h=3]1. Blake Bortles, UCF Knights[/h]
I watched all the tape and studied his game, and I think he projects nicely in the NFL. When I saw him down in Orlando for his pro day, the ball exploded out of his hand. He's 6-5, 232 pounds, great size for an NFL QB, and he's mobile. When the play breaks down, he can make plays with his legs. That complete package is why he's my top QB in this draft class.
On film, the first thing you see is his stature. He looks like an NFL QB, that Andrew Luck look. There were some things I wanted to see in his pro day workout: I wanted to see him drive the ball to the outside, because I thought at times he was an arm thrower on tape. I wanted to see him sequence his feet, front knee, hip and arm -- and he did. I thought his lower-body mechanics could use work, and he showed improvement at his pro day after working with Jordan Palmer. His release was quick and snappy, which also looked improved.
I saw Bortles two days after Bridgewater's pro day, and after five throws you could see the difference between him and Bridgewater. Bortles showed it all: a good arcing deep ball, 20-yard digs, sideline comebacks, checkdowns. I was very impressed.
I think the Houston Texans should take Bortles with the No. 1 overall pick, and his pro day really influenced that opinion. I wasn't sure he was the best QB before then. But you talk about the accuracy, the touch and, of course, the arm strength and he's got it all. I think he has a great future ahead of him, and if you need a QB like the Texans do, I think he's going to be a good one.
Of course, the question that will determine everything is where the Texans have him on their draft board. I look at Bortles and I see a quarterback in the mold that is favored by new head coach Bill O'Brien. But I could say something similar for Mettenberger. And if the Texans think they can get Jadeveon Clowney at No. 1 and their top-rated QB at No. 33 ... well, that just makes for a more interesting draft in May.
