Roland Garros WTA

[croaker]

Sensational thread. Went over it and read it through. Great stuff. Really one of the better threads on this forum.

You do other sports?

Thanks RunMaker

Its nice to have a thread with good comments and no flaming.

I had a good run with NBA prior to the start of the tanking season but the zebras take a lot of the fun out of it. First time I've won on the NBA. I didn't see today's game but I did see the call on Hills phantom foul on Durant, and saw the reports about the Durant charge being overturned. I have no interest in betting playoff NBA or other NBA games where there is a big financial incentive for the league for certain teams to win ie Cavs over Pacers.



I've done NFL for a few years and have been slightly profitable each year but sadly had decent sized bets on the Falcons 28-3 game and the Saints gutting loss to Vikings. I don't think you get enough bettable games in the NFL to even out the variance over a season. I try to cap the games and also look for mispricing based on recency bias and celebrity team odds. I love the NFL as a sport and its sad to see it become politicized.

I used to do NRL which is Australian Rugby League, but the refereeing is now worse than the NBA. They have tried to improve the game by enforcing the rules more stringently but they ended up with some unintended consequences. Once of the games had 40 penalties or 1 every 2 minutes of play and turned into a farce. Now they are worse off than before with inconsistent calls and some rules enforced some days and not others. I feel sorry for the players and coaches. Used to be a good game.

With tennis I have had 565 bets in the last 2 months [in cluding the 31 I have posted here] and still have ROI of 16%. So there enough are to even out the variance. I used to play competitive tennis as a junior which may or may not help, but at least I have some understanding of the game and the practicalities travelling around to different tournaments. So I am going to put some time into womens tennis and see if I can sustain profitability.



Glushko just came through, so I am still solvent.

Next up in Thailand McPhee vs Bozovic, 2 Aussie girls. Bozovic upset Ulrikke Eikeri who is a reasonable player a couple days. But it was really windy and Eikeri struggled with the conditions [something you don't see in the boxscore].

But McPhee has a 2:1 H2H over Bozovic and McPhee's loss was 3 years ago when she was 16.

I think there is value on McPhee, maybe too late match has started and shes already up a break.

 

[croaker]

For tonights FO

I think these are all early games.


Maria Sakkari +274

Sakkari has been playing well against the top players long enough to convince me she is pretty good.

She has recently beaten Ka Pliskova, Kontaveit, Krunic, Barty and Vekic, and just destroyed Navarro so has no problems with the surface.

I don't think the books have caught up with her yet.

Qiang Wang -141

Playing Putinseva

Wang holds 1-0 H2H

Wang beat Venus pretty comfortably and just destroyed Martic.

I expect this to be 2-0 to Wang, shes playing very well atm.

FYI I've taken Wang -1.5 sets as well, not for the record, and intend to double down if she loses first set. There is 2nd set risk but I'll see how it goes.


Naomi Osaka +134

Playing Madison Keys.

Osaka strikes the ball as good as anyone and moves really well. She can suffer from mental lapses and brain explosions which is the main risk. If she gets behind she may not be coming back.

She really struggled against Halep recently but Keys may be good but she is not Halep.

Off to get Pizza before the matches start.

 

[danlin]

You've got balls of steel, my friend. WTA action is like a rollercoaster ride with no tracks at the peak of the ride... Currently have a bet with the melodrama Petko/Mattek...

:missingte

so true. Just see the early games at FO today ... holding serve? No? Bringing a 6-1 4-0 home? Why? Why not losing second set 1-6 after winning first set 6-1? Using a matchpoint? How boring ...

@croaker: really god job and quite some grounded analysis ... and awesome how you can stand this russian roulette ^!:

 

[RunMaker]

One of the best threads in a gambling forum on the internet.

Interested to know what other forums/sites you utilize for info or draw from... if you don't mind sharing.

 

[croaker]

:missingte
@croaker: really god job and quite some grounded analysis ... and awesome how you can stand this russian roulette ^!:

Thanks, hopefully I can keep my head above water for a bit longer. I had a good run in NBA and with tennis so far so my bankroll is OK and I am quite conservative so

I know what you mean but I think it makes the games more interesting. Yesterday Edmund won first set 6-0 and lost the 2nd 6-1. Its just the normal volatility of the game. You just have to wait for the matches to play out, when I started with tennis I was amazed.

The Wang match was going to plan for the first 11 games with Wang cruising but she saw the winning post and took her foot off the gas, and basically choked when Putinseva got a few lucky breaks. She missed many easy points.

Putinseva never gave up and it was a great comeback from her. It was disappointing for me especially as I had Wang -1.5 sets as well as ML. Wang will be gutted as she blew a chance to make the last 16 and get a big payday etc.


But on the other side the volatility creates opportunities. I just took Zverev live in the 4th set firstly at at -110 and then added when he went down a break to 4-2 at +400. He ended up winning a close match but that's usually [but not always] what good players do. I'm pretty sure its +EV as the algos don't take clutchness into account, and in the end Zverev made slightly less errors than Dhumzur. Damir could have easily won the match but made errors at crucial times, whereas Zverev didn't.

I did also take Sakkari at +1400 after she lost the first set and was happy after she won the second, her live ML odds dropped to around +120 at one stage, but she couldn't keep it going in the 3rd. It probably would have been better to take her just to win set 2 but I couldn't resist the juicy line.

 

[croaker]

One of the best threads in a gambling forum on the internet.

Interested to know what other forums/sites you utilize for info or draw from... if you don't mind sharing.

Thanks RunMaker I took RBA to win over 15.5 games which played out exactly as you thought. And at way better odds than the -500 ML for Djoko.

For tennis I use the ITF site for info on the ITF matches, and oddsportal for getting the closing lines and tennislive for info on the ATP and WTA matches.

THe ATP and WTA sites publish point winning %ages for each player and you can check these for performance on each surface.

I use youtube to see how players play at the end of matches ie "winning" time ie can they close out or can they hold under pressure.

I've read several academic research papers on sports betting markets but they are not very useful.

I don't use any other forums. I only use Rx there is good info here and the majority of posters are pretty good and I have learned a lot since joining up here.

I'm not sure how the odds makers set their opening lines, but for live betting they seem to take the closing line and then use that to calculate point winning percentages for each player. They adjust the percentages during the match depending on how the match is going.

I've been able to replicate opening lines for NBA and NFL spreads using reasonably simple metrics, and then can back calculate the implied ML odds, and would like to be able to do that for tennis as well.


Anyway

Last night was close but no cigar

Wang - well disappointing, I thought I was good 4-0 up in second set.

Osaka - played steady but never looked like winning after she went down early

Makarri - didn't seem to have it, played well in the 2nd set where she completely dominated but made far too many errors to be a shot of winning.

So record now

21-13

+439 ROI +7.9%


Other matches

Siniakova was carrying leg injury [wearing thigh bandage] in her last match,had 2 falls and look lucky to survive the match, she didn't look good against Strycova and lost comfortably. I watched the match to see how the effects of the injury carried through to her next match and how it affected the lines as this type of situation may be a good setup for a fade. The Siniakova line only moved out a small amount so I'm not sure whether this had been priced in pre or missed by the market. Once I get a better handle on how opening lines are set I will have a better idea.

Buza over Svitolina - The line for Buza was +450 pre-match which I thought was too high similar to the Peng-Garcia and Sakarri-Kasatkina lines. I didn't end up taking it but I did try to get a live bet on Buza after she went up a break but the odds kept dropping as I was pressing place bet and I kept getting rejected. I gave up at +100. But what I am thinking is that there may be better value betting dogs to win a set rather than the match. There are so many ways to bet with tennis.

PS

I duck egged in China yesterday 0-2

The matches for Luzhou haven't been streamed so I really have no idea what happened.

And went 1-1 in Thailand, but had some luck as the McPhee match started before I could get my bet on. And also with Glushko as she lost the first set, I added after she went up a break in the 2nd. She won the 2nd in a nail biter and cruised home in the 3rd.

So going 1-3 and breaking even is very lucky......

On luck

Out of the 34 matches I have posted I have 2 where I have been unlucky and 2 where I have good luck, if the distribution of luck is 50/50 [which is likely] it will hurt my ROI as the losses from the bad beats will be way higher than the profits from lucky wins.

These are the 4 matches
begu got sick or injured, loss
wang choked from 4-0, in 2nd set, loss
gavr came back from 5-2 down, win
begu came back from 5-2 down, win

	odds	P/L	inv
begu	-270	-270	270
Qiang wang	-141	-141	141
begu	-192	100	192
gavrilova	-147	100	147
total		-211	750

 

[croaker]

Glushko is playing the final in Thailand vs Bozovic later today but her odds are -300.

I will be happy to take Glushko -200 or better live on B365. Not for record.

If Bozovic serves first and wins first game its likely the live odds will be close to that.

I will add if she goes down a break or set, Glushko is well balanced, determined and plays better when under pressure. She occasionally swears in hebrew and happy to questions dubious line calls, but she is always ready for the next point. No meltdowns....

 

[croaker]

10 games tonight

I'm trying the dog to take a set strategy tonight, I think the dogs are close to EV+ at ML, but will be betting a larger amount and hoping for the volatility goes my way. It will at least force me to look more closely at the maths involved. I'm still basically trying to pick winners rather than cap.

Early matches

Giorgi vs Sloane

Giorgi +1.5 sets -169

Giorgi holds a 2:1 H2H over Sloane and is around 50:50 losing in 2 sets vs 3.

I think Giorgi has a real shot at taking the match but will run with the 1 set.

Begu vs Garcia

Begu +1.5 sets -120

Close match Begu on top form for entire match would be good enough to win but should be good enough to at least get a set.

So I am basically betting Begu hits a decent patch of form for long enough to take a set.

Kvitova vs Kontaveit

Kontaveit +1.5 sets -127

I think this will be a close game, when Kvitova gets on a roll she is virtually unbeatable, hitting lines, booming serves etc but she doesn;t play like this 100% of the time. Kontaveit will capitalize on any lapses.

The implied odds for Kontaveit to win a set are 54.6% and I need the real odds to be above 56% to beat a 2.5% vig. Sounds good so far....

Conversely Pliskova implied odds to win 2-0 are 45.4% and need to be above 46.5% to beat the vig. I don't really like those odds....

Mugu vs Stosur

Mugu -1.5 sets -110

Stosur is playing very well atm, its hard to go against her but I'm playing Mugu 2-0. Stosur is 2-9 when losing first set so my bet is that I am taking Mugu to win first set with better odds than market to then win the second set.

Implied odds for Mugu to win the first set are 69% on b365 lines and to win 2-0 the implied odds on pinny are 51.2%.

I calculate the implied odds for 2nd set component from the pinny 2-0 line at 66%. I don't think the true odds should be worse for Mugu to win the second set, particularly as if a player wins the first set the 2nd set line drops significantly. So I think the maths is slightly in my favor regardless of whether I am reading the match correctly.



Bets are on. I will have a look at the remaining card a bit later.

BOL

 

[RunMaker]

Thanks RunMaker I took RBA to win over 15.5 games which played out exactly as you thought. And at way better odds than the -500 ML for Djoko.

For tennis I use the ITF site for info on the ITF matches, and oddsportal for getting the closing lines and tennislive for info on the ATP and WTA matches.

THe ATP and WTA sites publish point winning %ages for each player and you can check these for performance on each surface.

I use youtube to see how players play at the end of matches ie "winning" time ie can they close out or can they hold under pressure.

I've read several academic research papers on sports betting markets but they are not very useful.

I don't use any other forums. I only use Rx there is good info here and the majority of posters are pretty good and I have learned a lot since joining up here.

Good stuff. I like to use matchstat.com and bet365 has one of the best live feeds for any sport tracking with their In-Play. Always about 1.5 seconds ahead of tennislive with their live feed.

You kind of remind me of bettingadvice.com and their forums as occasionally you'll find interesting analysis like yours.

 

[croaker]

Good stuff. I like to use matchstat.com and bet365 has one of the best live feeds for any sport tracking with their In-Play. Always about 1.5 seconds ahead of tennislive with their live feed.

You kind of remind me of bettingadvice.com and their forums as occasionally you'll find interesting analysis like yours.

Hope you cashed on RBA and thanks for the links. And I'm interested if you have thoughts about the mens matches.

Glushko just destroyed Bozivic 6-2, 6-2. I missed the start of the match. She did go down 0-1 but cruised after that.

The Zverev Dimar match last night was great. I watched most of Dimar struggling to beat Albot after being up 2 sets [trying to stay awake for the following Q Wang Martic match], but I suspect he was taking the opportunity to get some extra court time against a weak opponent and practice his drop shots etc. Nearly backfired on him. But he ended up handling the clay really well against Zverev.

I just had my first go at capping using a simple model for the 4 games I posted above.

I was surprised that my model came out pretty close to the actual Kvitova and Mugu spreads, but also surprised that it showed a small advantage for Begu over Garcia and small advantage and for Giorgi over Sloane. Sadly, it looks like my Kontaveit +1.5 is doomed.

I think one of the issues is that you can't win a game by less than 2 points but the point winning percentages are 2 close at least for the women to give clear 2pt advantages over a game. I haven't really got a good handle on how that should effect the odds vs the actual lines.

Also with the lines I'm not sure how accurate they are my guess is the the favorite lines are usually close and the dog lines and not high enough really enough. There must be some sort of frequency distribution around the ML and the spread, I think the oddsmakers books assume a normal or close to normal distribution eg in NFL the distribution is skewed by key numbers and by teams leading shortening the games through run strategy to wind down the clocks which often allows their opponent to score but with not enough time left to win.

It's a little similar in the NBA when teams favour running the shot clock over taking good shots when leading, to reduce the number of possessions for the other team. I'm not sure if its an optimal strategy as I've seen many teams using this strategy lose when if they had kept playing the way they were when they built the lead, they would have certainly won.

In the long run the points differential between the 2 players should even out to the mean, but in the short run there will be a lot of volatility for no real reason, which is exactly what we see in the matches. I think if the players understood the maths better, they would not get so tilted if they lose a few unlucky points. And they would understand that a small drop off in intensity can lead to a big difference in points won eg Qian Wang.

Once b365 put there live odds up for these games, with the winning point %ages, I'll try to refine my model. I found with NBA and NFL if you an spot large unexplained gaps between predicted an actual lines there is often value. Often seen with Cowboys games, not so much last year but there was still usually still a gap. I used to cap the absence of Zeke higher than the books as he had the ability to turn a big run into a TD which IMO made him more valuable than the average yard per carry ie a break in the normal distribution.

 

[croaker]

Good start to the day, Kontaveit managed to win the match and Giorgi still battling after serving for the match twice and missing.

Still waiting on Begu

Anyway on to the next matches

Sharapova vs Ka Pliskova

I like Pliskova here but it will be close. Karolyna's line has come in from +138 to +108.

Pass don't see much value at current line.

Gavrilova vs Mertens

Mertens -1.5 sets -108

Looks like a mismatch. Gavrilova says she plays better when behind so I expect she will be playing better for most of the match.


Serena vs Goerges

Pass. Lines look about right so little value.

Similar to the Sharapova match if Goerges gets to +150 which is unlikely I would have some sort of bet.

Kerber vs Bertens

Bertens had a good run at Madrid and is slight favorite

I give Kerber a slight edge at +131. Just trying to work out how to play it.

Will update later.

 

[croaker]

Last one for day/night

Kerber vs Bertens

Bertens good on clay but Kerber is as well.

Pretty close with H2H.

Both playing well.

Have to pass at the lines, its priced as almost a flip, and no outcome would surprise me in this match. Most likely match will go to 3 sets.

Giorgi couldn't quite get over the line to take the match. Lost 3 service games in a row to lose the match.

The Begu +1.5 set line has moved out to -104. No-one giving her a chance. Everyone who lost on Pliskova probably doubling down on Garcia to win at home.

 

[RunMaker]

You might know this so asking here.

You have access to or know of any sites that track handicap histories for ATP/WTA matches? I don't think I've ever seen that. Got to be somewhere on the net.

Also, similar question, access or site that might show money lines and corresponding handicap relationships?



For example, some lines/caps:

Thiem -140 / -2.5
Isner -262 / -3.5
Zver -304 / -5.0
Djok -383 / -6.0
Delpo -395 / -6.0
Zver -304 / -5.0


Obviously for ATP the cap gets tweaked when an elite server is in the fold.

 

[croaker]

I think oddsportal will have it.

And its finally Begu time...

 

[croaker]

Sadly after staying up to watch Begu shock the world against Garcia she lost.

I only managed to see the first set and it wasn't pretty at least for Begu. Garcia played really well and I don't know that anyone would have beaten Garcia on the day.

But Mugu 2-0, Kontaveit 2-0, Giorgi 1-2 and Mertens 2-0 all managed to win or get a set.

Didn't see Serena's game but looks like she won comfortably from the boxscore. Serena now +800 to win the tourney so you would have been way better off backing her ML in each of her last 2 matches than taking a future bet.

Anyway ended up going 4-1 for the day so a bit better than yesterday. So still hanging in there. Taking the dogs to win a set worked out more profitable so I will probably keep using it.

Mertens and Mugu crushed their opponents, Giorgi had 2 chances to serve out the match but lost, and Kontaveit defeated Kvitova in a close match but never really looked like losing.

Record now

25-14

+719 +11.6%

PS

I got some of the data from the point winning %ages at the start of a couple of the matches and will see how they compare with the estimates from my model. I'm not trying to use this data to predict outcomes but just to understand how the oddsmaker set their opening lines, so I will be doing some simple but interesting maths later today......

PPS

The average odds for the 25 winning bets is 1.64 [decimal odds] and with a win rate of 64% gives me an expected return from flat betting of 5.3% so the staking strategy of betting to win a set amount is superior at this stage.

 

[croaker]

My thoughts around game handicap betting is that while the players try to win every game their main goal is to win the match and don't necessarily work hard to cover the spread [same in NBA and NFL].

Also who gets to serve first can affect the spread ie chances of a 6-3 or 6-4 set score.

Books love spread bettors as the odds are closer to 50% which gives maximum volatility, so there more chance for bettors to bust out. I started to become profitable when I started playing alt lines and ML, rather than the standard 50/50 spreads.

One guy here posted something that I found very useful it was essentially "pick the right side and then work out how to make money on it". For which I am very grateful.

 

[croaker]

Missed the start of the Buza game.

There are still 3 more matches

Next up

Strycova vs Putintseva

Putintseva +1.5 sets -136

I think is a close match with slight edge for Putintseva, Strycova is the favorite so I think there is value on the Putintseva +1.5 line.

The maths is consistent with my view as well so fingers crossed. Hopefully she gets off to a better start than she did against Wang.


BOL

 

[croaker]

Coming up after the Nishikori yawnathon

Wozniaki vs Kasatkina

Wozniaki ML -121

I really like Woz at these odds, shes dropped 11 games in her last 4 matches c/w Kasatkina sho was lucky Sakarri had a bad day in her last match.

I actually think there is value in ML and -1.5 for Woz, as Kasatkina loses most of her matches 2-0, and I don't think she matches up bery well against Woz. But went with the ML as less variance.

 

[Uscsilb24]

Masterful first set from Sloane. That was a piece of art.

 

[croaker]

Yeah

Kontaveit didn't show up today. She looked shell shocked. I was watching the Putintseva game and missed the start of the match.

I think Serena will crush Sharapova tomorrow and can't see her dropping a set.