road favorites

[chonce]

A vague topic I know, but still one worth asking.

It seems that "educated gamblers", or whatever, tout them as suckers bets. I subscribed to that theory last year, and made some ching going for the home dogs. However this year, things have a little shaky. These road favs seem to be covering at a pretty high clip.

I am just interested in insights, and thoughts on the reason for this. Is the book just losing out? Will it turn around?

ANy commentary on the road favorite angle on the NFL is welcome. I have to admit, Philly and Miami look like decent raod bets this week.

 

[debbiek]

Good Road favorites this week are:

Baltimore -5.5 (should win by more than 10)
KC (road dog) - should be the favorite
Buffalo -3 (should win by more than a touchdown)

 

[educatedrebel1]

BALTIMORE IS FAVORED OVER AN NFC HOME DOG. WHEN THE AFC WAS FAVORED OVER THE NFC HOME DOG LAST YEAR, THE NFC WENT 9-3 ATS. REMEMBER THE BEARS LAST WEEK?? THE RAIDERS WERE THOUGHT TO BE THE EASY COVER. KANSAS CITY, I DO BELIEVE IS A "SUCKER BET," HOW CAN AN UNDEFEATED TEAM BE GETTING POINTS? I REMEMBER A GAME 3 YEARS AGO, WHEN THE VIKINGS STARTED OUT 7-0, AND HAD THE DELIGHTFUL TASK OF TRAVELING TO TAMPA BAY. THE BUCS WERE 3-4 AT THE TIME. THE ODDSMAKERS INSTALLED THE BUCS AS 3 POINT HOME FAVORITES AGAINST A TEAM THAT WAS 7-0. HOW CAN THIS BE...UNLESS IT WAS THE INFAMOUS TRAP TO GET THE PUBLICS MONEY???? THE BETTER TEAM, AND THEY'RE GETTING POINTS.(TAMPA WON THE GAME OUTRIGHT BY THE WAY WITH EASE) AS FAR AS BUFFALO GOES, THEY'VE PLAYED LIKE SHIT, EVER SINCE THEIR LOSS TO MIAMI..AND THE JETS ARE COMING OFF A BYE WEEK, AND PLAYING AT HOME. GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!!! EDDIE REBEL

 

[winbet]

Eddiereb,

You are right about The Bills, if they had lost last week, and they should have, the odds would be a pick. With Moulds out, Henry and Adams banged up, The Jets looked a good thing.
I say looked as you have to factor in Herm Edwards. He is talking of playing rookies in place of some vets and leaving a discision on Abrahams till game time.
That is just the sort of stability an 0-4 team needs

without Abraham I will probably leave opposing The Bills another week.

 

[educatedrebel1]

WINBET...
RIGHT YOU ARE , PROBABLY NOT A GOOD GAME TO PLAY UNLESS SIXTH SENSE HAS SOMETHING GOOD ABOUT IT. PERSONALLY, I WILL NOT BE TOUCHING THE ARIZONA / BALTIMORE GAME, NOR THE GREEN BAY / KANSAS CITY GAME. I JUST FEEL THERE ARE BETTER SELECTIONS OUT THERE. IF I CANT FIND A WELL ENOUGH TEAM(S)....ITS TIME TO START LOOKING AT THE POINT TOTALS....AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK MY FRIEND! EDDIE REBEL

 

[olddog]

Road favs are covering at an astronomically high rate (~70%).....so far. This will eventually head back towards 50%. Some week road favs will go 0-5 and all will be right with the statistical world again.