RLM pointing towards a Morehead St cover

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My original thought was to do an open parlay with Nevada ML and close it with a final four game. No way Nevada loses at home for their championship game right? But the reverse line movement from -4.5 to -3 means some sharps are putting big money on Morehead St tonight with the public still 80% on Nevada (94% on the ML). Vegas is getting most of the action on their home state school.

There's two ways I'm reading this line. Either like I said a ton of sharp money has the line moving OR Vegas predicts a big win by Nevada and knows no amount of steam will help balance this game. If that's the case then they'll move the line down to entice sharp bettors to get some counter action.

What do you all think?
 

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Morehead St....

seriously who could argue against More Head.....!!!!!
 

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are those numbers actual bettors or just opinions...
not worried, nevada at home is the play
 

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i didn't look and i know that oliver kid is pretty good....
i can't name anyone from morehead st..
they have a serious home court advantage i know...
 

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dont know how accurate that info is... they may be just trying to win a 5 dollar parlay

I've been using this as well as concensus info from across the street for years and it's generally accurate. Today's it's extremely accurate as I've seen a ton posts on Nevada -4.5 all the way down to -3.

I'll take my chances and go with Morehead St +3 here.
 

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Thanks oatiko. And we all know it's not always about betting against the public. Just because there's 80 or 90% on one side doesn't mean the other side is guaranteed to cash. I will say that in my experience it's usually baddddd teams that end up not covering and giving Joe public the win. Morehead state is a legitimate live dog here and only thing Joe can see is the home court advantage and offensive firepower Nevada has showcased this tournament, dismissing the fact that Morehead can really turn the Wolfpack over and are much bigger inside. Unless they go 1 for 16 from outside again this game is feeling like a last possession type game.
 

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this line movement is exactly the same as portland / boston last night in nba... i went w it bos +2- looked great for 45 of the 48 minutes....
hey u never know.... if morehead covers u think the lm meant something but each case is individual at best...
gl
 

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this line movement is exactly the same as portland / boston last night in nba... i went w it bos +2- looked great for 45 of the 48 minutes....
hey u never know.... if morehead covers u think the lm meant something but each case is individual at best...
gl

Yeah not saying all line movement is predictable but if you're going to compare with other lines it should be against other CBB lines not NBA. That's just my opinion though.
 

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More head +5 large. Got that line this morning

Cheers and Good luck!!! :toast:
 

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Thought I had a winner
On sportacular it showed 83-82 OT final. When I went to my book I see I had a push at 85-82.

What at a tease. But at least it wasn't a loss.
 

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And 37 of 43 FT.....? Jesus. Nevada can shoot from the charity stripe........ Bastards. Why not miss the last one with 2 seconds left. Oh well on to tomorrow.
 

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