RJJM94 Playoff Thread

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2* Arizona -1

A13687781219601363A.jpg


Although Matt Ryan has been having an incredible year, I will take the more experienced Warner who has been in this situation before. Heres a stat for rookie QBs playing in the playoffs:

<table class="story-table" border="0"><tbody><tr class="story-table-even-row"><td>Quarterback </td><td>Team </td><td>Season </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Dan Marino </td><td>Miami </td><td>1983 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in second round</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Bernie Kosar </td><td>Cleveland </td><td>1985 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in second round</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Jim Everett </td><td>LA Rams </td><td>1986 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in first round</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Todd Marinovich </td><td>LA Raiders </td><td>1991 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in first round</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Shaun King </td><td>Tampa Bay </td><td>1999 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 1-1, Lost NFC championship game</td></tr> <tr class="story-table-odd-row"><td> Ben Roethlisberger </td><td>Pittsburgh </td><td>2004 </td></tr> <tr class="story-table-even-row"><td colspan="3">Playoffs: 1-1, Lost AFC championship game</td></tr></tbody></table>
Overall Rookie QBs are 2-6 in the playoffs.

Heres a good article I found about what the Cardinals need to do to win the game:

1. Do not allow Michael Turner to take over the game. The Falcons’ Pro Bowl running back rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season. He’ll get his yards on Saturday, and he most likely will find the end zone at least once. While the Cardinals won’t be able to stop him, they’ll need to find a way to contain him. If Turner rushes for, say, 115 yards on 27 carries, the Cardinals will have a chance to win. If Turner runs for 215 yards on 27 carries, it will be tough for Arizona to prevail.


2. Prevent big pass plays to Roddy White. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan was named the NFC’s Offensive Rookie of the Year after passing for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. His favorite target is White, a Pro Bowl receiver who caught 88 passes for 1,382 yards and seven touchdowns. Ryan and White have the ability to break open the game. The Cardinals must stop that from happening.


3. Protect quarterback Kurt Warner. The Cardinals’ stellar receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald (who finished the regular season with 1,431 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns), Anquan Boldin (1,038 yards and 11 scores) and Steve Breaston (1,006 yard and three touchdowns) can get open against anybody. If the Arizona offensive line can keep defensive end John Abraham (who has 16.5 of the Falcons’ 33 regular-season sacks) and the rest of the formidable Atlanta pass rush away from Warner, the Cardinals’ Pro Bowl quarterback (who has thrown for 4,583 yards and a franchise record 30 touchdowns) and his receivers can have a big day. They’ll need to in order to keep pace in what could develop into a high-scoring shootout.


4. Exhibit some semblance of a running game. Most likely, the Cardinals will not rush for as many yards as the Falcons. That’s OK, as long as Arizona can run the ball enough to keep the defense honest. Whether it’s Edgerrin James (who rushed for 100 yards last week against the Seahawks in his most-extensive action since October) or Tim Hightower (who has started seven games this season) or J.J. Arrington (a change-of-pace back who has the speed to make things happen), the Cardinals will need at least one of their running backs to contribute.


5. Do not turn the ball over. This one is simple -- just don’t do it. In what figures to be a closely contested matchup, the Cardinals simply cannot afford to give away the football on fumbles and interceptions.


6. Make plays during crunch time. In a game that likely will be decided in the final five minutes, the Cardinals will need great plays from their best players. There will be a fine line between a 27-24 victory and a 27-24 defeat on Saturday. In the closing minutes, Arizona will need Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston to step up on offense and will rely upon Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby and Adrian Wilson to come through on defense.

Summary:

Statistically, Atlanta has been the more impressive team this year, but everyone knows that on game day all previous stats are thrown out the window and the team that comes to play usually wins. I will take the more experienced team, who is having the so-called "Cinderella" season, to win this one 31-21.
 

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3* Indianapolis -1.5
1* Indy/SD under 50
p1_manning.jpg


Why?

Healthy Players

LT(groin) and Gates(foot) both questionable.
Bob Sanders is 100% and will make some key plays in this game.

Paybacks A Bitch

San Diego beat Indy in Indy last year to end there dream of becoming back to back Super Bowl champions. Indianapolis will pay them back with a defeat this evening.

Better Team
Indy has had some impressive wins beating the following teams:
TEN
JAX
SD**
HOU
PIT
NE
BAL

While SD lost to the following this year:
ATL
INDY**
PIT
NO
BUF
MIA
DEN

Payton
This motherfucker wins clutch football games.

Deusche bags don't win championships
Phildo Rivers is a ***.

Defense

SD <table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><th class="SDcolors">PTS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>21.7 (15th)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="statspotlight" width="46" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="34"> <tbody><tr> <th class="SDcolors"> YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>349.9 (25th)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th class="SDcolors"> PASS YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>247.4 (31st)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th class="SDcolors"> RUSH YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>102.6 (11th)
</td></tr></tbody></table>
IND
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th class="INDcolors"> PTS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>18.6 (7th)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th class="INDcolors"> YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>310.9 (11th)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th class="INDcolors"> PASS YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>188.1 (6th)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table class="statspotlight" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th class="INDcolors"> RUSH YDS </th> </tr> <tr> <td>122.9 (24th)
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Summary:
Payton and company are going to run and pass all over this charger football team. Philip Rivers won't help his team out to much when he forces the ball into coverage causing turnovers. Also Philip Rivers is a pussy.... Final score: IND 27 SD 17



PS.


philip-rivers.jpg


Don't get flustered there Phil.
 

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Real Good article. I appreciate all the knowledge you bring to the table rjjm94. And your right, Phillip Rivers reminds me of Turd Ferguson! Good write up!
 

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I just called in the bets to the local actually got
under 51.5 not 50*

Official Plays:
2* Arizona -1 Win
3* Indy -1.5
1* Ind/SD under 51.5
 

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Laid off the Miami / Baltimore game had a small lean on the over. Glad I laid off.

Official plays:
2* Arizona -1 Win
3* Indy -1.5
1* Ind/SD under 51.5
2-1 -.3 Units

Still feel like I bet the right side in that Indy game. Indy really shit the bed on 3rd and 2 to win the game, also the refs didn't really help that OT out. In my opinion, the refs should let the players play in an OT game during the playoffs. The shouldnt call every stupid penalty that ends up deciding the result of the game. Anyways I should have a right up for the minny/philly game.
 

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings

My Play:
3* Minnesota Vikings +3.5
2* Over 41.5
91276.jpg


WHY?
This game has stood out to me as soon as the lines came out. The wrong team is favored here.

Consensus Games
Philly -
Wk 4: Eagles 20 @ Bears 24
Wk 8:
Falcons 14 @ Eagles 27
Wk 10:
Giants 36 @ Eagles 31
Wk 13:
Cardinals 20 @ Eagles 48
Pts for: 126 (31.5 avg)
Pts against: 90 (22.5 avg)
Pts differential: +36 (+8 avg)

Minny-
Wk 7:
Vikings 41 @ Bears 48
Wk 13: Bears 14 @ Vikings 34
Wk 15:
Vikings 35 @ Cardinals 14
Wk 16:
Falcons 24 @ Vikings 17
Wk 17:
Giants 19 @ Vikings 20
Pts for: 147 (29.4 avg)
Pts against: 119 (23.8 avg)
Pts differntial: +28 (5.6 avg)

Summary: Both these teams have played very similar vs the same opponents. Philly has been slightly more efficient with the point differential.

Vs Playoff Teams:

Philly -
Wk 3:
Steelers 6 @ Eagles 15
Wk 8:
Falcons 14 @ Eagles 27
Wk 10:
Giants 36 @ Eagles 31
Wk 12:
Eagles 7 @ Ravens 36
Wk 13:
Cardinals 20 @ Eagles 48
Wk 14:
Eagles 20 @ Giants 14
Pts for: 148 (24.7 avg)
Pts against: 126 (21 avg)
Pts differntial: +22 (3.7 avg)

Minny -
Wk 2:
Colts 18 @ Vikings 15
Wk 3:
Panthers 10 @ Vikings 20
Wk 4:
Vikings 17 @ Titans 30
Wk 15:
Vikings 35 @ Cardinals 14
Wk 16:
Falcons 24 @ Vikings 17
Wk 17:
Giants 19 @ Vikings 20
Pts for: 124 (20.7 avg)
Pts against: 115 (19.2 avg)
Pts differntial: +9 (1.5 avg)

Summary: Both these teams have played very similar vs playoff teams. Philly has been slightly more efficient with the point differential.

Matchups

Philly Offense Vs Minny Defense
Pts: 26.0 (6th) vs 20.8 allowed (13th)
Yds: 350.5 (9th) vs 292.4 allowed (6th)
Pass Yds: 244.4 (6th) vs 215.6 allowed (18th)
Rush Yds: 106.1 (22nd) vs 76.9 allowed (1st)

Minny Offense Vs. Philly Defense

Pts: 23.7 (12th) vs 18.1 allowed (4th)
Yds: 330.5 (17th) vs 274.3 allowed (3rd)
Pass Yds: 184.8 (25th) vs 182.1 allowed (3rd)
Rush Yds: 145.8 (5th) vs 92.2 allowed (4th)

Summary: Statistically this year Philadelphia has great numbers but the two teams still match up very well. The one opening I am scared about is Mcnabb vs the minnesota secondary, but I feel that the minny line will get good pressure on mcnabb forcing a few turnovers.

So so far..... Statistically the eagles look better on paper, but its been pretty close.... but like I said earlier forget the stats and bet the team who you thinks going to come out and win the game. The homefield advantage and 3.5 points looks great to me.

Other Factors:
Pat & Kevin Williams - some of the best defensive tackles in the NFL who will help stop the run and pressure that fa ggot, Donovan Mcnabb, all game long. (did I forget to mention Jared Allen?)

AP - one of the best dynamic backs in the NFL who will be the difference in this one

Tarvarus Jackson - This nigga can move a little bit... and has really shown more poise as of late. Just hope he can keep his head on his shoulders and not blow this one by forcing it.

Injuries- The philly team is pretty beat up including asante samuel, westbrook, hank basket, and kevin curtis.

Home Field Advantage - Philly is 3-4-1 on the road and Minny is 6-3 at home. This is the probably one of the biggest edges that Minny has. Playing in a dome at home on a playoff game is a huge advantage especailly vs 2 pretty evenly matched teams.

Fade the public - Public is all over the favorite like usual... but on the away team which is unsual. Ill fade the public this one. I have a really good feeling about minny this game.

Score Projection:
Minnesota 30 - Philly 24




PS.

mcnabb.jpg


Hope you dont get too beat up today... you fucking homo.
 

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great analysis once again rjjm94! Ive only read a few posts here since i am a noobie, lol, but you have the best information i have read by far! And your right...Donovan is a cornhole! thanks again rjjm94 your the best.
 

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Official plays:
Wildcard-

3* Minnesota Vikings +3.5
3* Indy -1.5
2* Min/Phil Over 41.5

2* Arizona -1 Win
1* Ind/SD under 51.5

Overall: 2-3 -5.8 Units


Looking to make up for last weekend today with 3 pretty solid plays today. Will have writeups later.
 

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Baltimore Ravens @ Tennesee Titans

My Plays:
4* Ten -3
2* Ten/Bal over 34

340x.jpg

Why?
Another matchup of rookie vs veteran... ill take the veteran every time (especially at this line). Heres a stat again on rookie QBs:

Quarterback Team Season
Dan Marino Miami 1983
Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in second round
Bernie Kosar Cleveland 1985
Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in second round
Jim Everett LA Rams 1986
Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in first round
Todd Marinovich LA Raiders 1991
Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in first round
Shaun King Tampa Bay 1999
Playoffs: 1-1, Lost NFC championship game
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh 2004
Playoffs: 1-1, Lost AFC championship game
Matt Ryan Atlanta 2008
Playoffs: 0-1, Lost in first round
Joe Flacco Baltimore 2008
Playoffs: 1-0, Pending

Overall Rookie QBs are 3-7 in the playoffs.

Old Kerry Collins
Kerry Collins, the 36 year old handsome buck, has been in this spot before and has decent success. He is 6-2 in the playoffs (played 7 more playoff games then Flacco). Kerry Collins is able to stay in the pocket and make good decisions even during huge games vs big defenses.

Flacco
Flacco may have the better QB rating this year, but he is very turnover prone. He has thrown 14 tds and has thrown 12 interceptions and has fumbled the ball 11 times. Thats an average of 1.4 turnovers a game, expect atleast 1 today. Collins on the other hand has thrown 7 interceptions and fumbled 5 times (.75 turnovers a game).

Coaching
Not taking away anything from John Harbaugh but he is just not experienced enough to go the distance. We saw what happened to the other two rookie coaches (Mike Smith and Tony Sparano). The ravens team outplayed and out coached Miami last weekend... but that was Miami, not the arguably best team in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans. Look for the experienced Jeff Fischer to have his team well prepared for this over-hyped baltimore team.

Rested?
The titans have had 12 days to rest and prepare for this football game. Hell, they pretty much took the day off vs the colts so you could argue that they have been resting for almost 3 weeks. The ravens on the other hand havent had a week off since September 14th and are a beat up team.

Keys to winning the game for Tennesee
1.) Shut down the Baltimore run
2.) Pressure the rookie Flacco into mistakes
3.) Establish a passing threat
4.) Minimize turnovers

Summary

Tennessee is at home and rested. They should also be well prepared to play this Baltimore team lead by a rookie coach and rookie quarterback. Ed Reed can't win every game for you. Ill take the more experienced coach, quarterback, home team who is well rested will be very well prepared. This should be a fun game to watch between two incredible defenses. This is my strongest lean so far in the playoffs. I really like the over in this game as well because I think both teams will open up a little bit more than last game played and start passing the ball. Each defense is good for 1 touch down and I feel that Tennessee's offense should be good for at least 2.

My Score Prediction:
Tennessee 28 - Baltimore 14

Good Luck All! Lets kill those bookies this weekend!

P.S.

jamallewis.jpg


Today things change a little bit, your going to be the one getting killed. Monkey.
 

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unbelievable analysis once again! jeepers you know your stuff mister. Is there anyway i could get your email adress in a PM i could use you for another site. I really love your write ups
 

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god this site sucks..... I posted a big writeup 20 minutes before the kick but it didn't go through.

Anyways my play for tonight is:
3* Arizona +10.5
 

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Playoff Plays:
4* Ten -3
3* Minnesota Vikings +3.5
3* Indy -1.5
3* Arizona +10.5
2* Min/Phil Over 41.5
2* Ten/Bal over 34

2* Arizona -1 Win
1* Ind/SD under 51.5

Overall: 3-5 -9.4 Units


Adding for today:
4* Philly/Giants over 38.5 (one of my strongest over under leans of the season)
2* Giants -4

2* San Diego +6.5 (local wont give me 7)
3* San Diego under 38
-------------------------

Think these plays sweep the board!

Don't have a time for write ups this morning... on my way to go play poker at the casino while I watch these games with an ice cold beer (god I'm a degenerate).

Best of luck to all.
 

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