Risk of Ruin

Railbird · Jul 6, 2004

I am an agressive player, meaning I bet 5% of bankroll on plays. So I cant afford losing streaks. So I only makes plays when I am stealing like CSFullerton baseball, Little Leauge, Espy props, NCAA football halftimes, NOv,Dec, ncaa hoops, girls march madness, or inside info plays.

I am taking mlb off for first time, even though I believe I can go heads up with anybody in the world.

This is the first I am using this strategy and it is paying of handsome. I am handicapping less and making more.

Fishhead · Jul 6, 2004

Railbird, continued success my friend.

D2bets · Jul 6, 2004

Not the optimal strategy. One is better off betting somewhat lesser amounts on more events -- pretty much any (as many) events in which there is a positive expectation. Losing streaks are inevitable regardless of edge.

But if you don't have enough time or the wherewithal to employ that strategy then yours is the next best. Whatever works for you, I guess.

stormy7777 · Jul 6, 2004

I tend to disagree D2.. I only wager 1 game a day at a fairly large amount and it has proven to be very successful over the years (about 65% winning percentage versus about 57% when i did multiple games). It is so much easier to find one great pick instead of trying to find several. Just my 2 cents. Whatever makes money in the end, go with it!

-Stormy

DarrylParsons · Jul 6, 2004

Rail,

Continue to go with your gut instincts -- they obviously work very well. You may actually be following the Kelly Criterion without even knowing it if your plays have a big enough advantage.

With the way you are able to separate wheat from chaff in capping and good game selection, I would have no reason to think your advantage is not high enough for those monster bets.

WildBill · Jul 6, 2004

Key thing is that as you say, you can't afford losing streaks. If you are playing with a stake you can replace through other means, then this strategy works fine. If you are not then the strategy could backfire. Even if you are making what you think are good plays they can backfire and if all goes wrong this method could bring trouble to a lot of players. Even if you pick at 60% clip, you still could easily have a 20 unit negative swing. Or in this case if you are betting 5% and letting it fluctuate you could hit a nasty stretch that eats up a lot of months of work. Rail is comfortable with it and has a history to lean on, but I would call this extremely risky for those that don't have his discipline and depth of knowledge.

lander · Jul 6, 2004

Rail,
Which sport has been more profitable for you -
Baseball (inc LL, CWS)
or
Tennis?

Railbird · Jul 7, 2004

I dont keep track Lander, depends on the year. I will be busy this month with 4 atp/wta tourneys in my area, and I have many little leauge games to attend. July and August is my favorite months.

daringly · Jul 7, 2004

If you're a small player (10k bank or less), you're actually better off avoiding the grind sports (like MLB) and sticking to obscure sports and props... Playing baseball MLs with 5% ROR gives you a high variance short-term, compared to the RORs you can hit on weirder stuff. The only problem is if you do these small sports properly, your bank grows to where you want to risk more than anywhere will take. Then, you have to move to a bigger pond.