Ridin' That Train

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$56.80
- 8.00
======
$48.80


Today's picks are kind of quick. I'll try and find better ones for tomorrow.

Today's plays (8-27-2015): $2wp

FL r#1
3 WEST BAY ROAD (6-1) ........ 2nd $2.80 @ 5-2

FL r#6
4 REGIFTING (6-1) ........ 3rd @ 3-1

Good luck to all.

Bank:
$48.80
- 8.00
+ 2.80
======
$43.60


Horrible price on REGIFTING yesterday. Plus, I didn't spend time trying to find false favorites.
We were beaten by favs in both races. Bad Prof! We need to avoid that so our place wager is viable.
I'm going to start using a confidence rating notation for each play so you will have a better idea of what I think about our plays.

Today's plays (8-28-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
8 FLYINGSHANIKO*** (20-1)

WO r#9
2 ITWILLALLWORKOUT** (20-1)

Couldn't find any false favs today either so we chose competitive races to try and cash.
Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Just wanted to mention a couple things.

If you play Indiana, be aware of track bias. Anybody riding near rail on the 2nd turn is compromised (1-3 paths).
Regardless if 1st flight or 2nd flight or trailer. Horses unable to get over are finishing well.
I cleaned up in the 9th on Tuesday because of this.

Wanted to mention superfecta bet I recently fell in love with ....
1 / 2,3 / 2,3,4/ 2,3,4,5 = 8 combinations
As ridiculously simple as it looks, I've hit more superfectas in the past 3 months than ever before.
It is one-third the cost of a 4-horse box and you play who you like.

Good luck to all ..... time to get to work.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Above post correction: "9th on Monday"

Just saw they scratched #12 in the 9th @ WO ... that just hurt our longshot play quite a bit. Both in value and chances.

 

[Prof_Factor]

FL r#6
8 FLYINGSHANIKO*** (20-1)

FLYINGSHANIKO scored @ 17-1

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$48.80
- 8.00
+ 2.80
======
$43.60


Horrible price on REGIFTING yesterday. Plus, I didn't spend time trying to find false favorites.
We were beaten by favs in both races. Bad Prof! We need to avoid that so our place wager is viable.
I'm going to start using a confidence rating notation for each play so you will have a better idea of what I think about our plays.

Today's plays (8-28-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
8 FLYINGSHANIKO*** (20-1) ........ 1st $36.20 $13.40

WO r#9
2 ITWILLALLWORKOUT** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 33-1 (jockey fell off)

Couldn't find any false favs today either so we chose competitive races to try and cash.
Good luck to all.

Bank:
$48.80
- 8.00
+49.60
======
$90.40


FLYINGSHANIKO sends train into overdrive with windfall.
Jockey falls off our other longshot.
Going to stay with $2wp amounts for now ... triple bank is only $30 away.

Today's plays (8-29-2015): $2wp

TDN r#4
8 CAJUN SILVER**** (8-1)

EVD r#7
12 EYE OF THE WIND**** (8-1)

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$43.60
- 8.00
+49.60
======
$85.20


FLYINGSHANIKO sends train into overdrive with windfall.
Jockey falls off our other longshot.
Going to stay with $2wp amounts for now ... triple bank is only $30 away.

Today's plays (8-29-2015): $2wp

TDN r#4
8 CAJUN SILVER**** (8-1) ........ 1st $6.00 $3.20

EVD r#7
12 EYE OF THE WIND**** (8-1) ........ 1st $7.40 $5.00

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$85.20
- 8.00
+21.60
======
$98.80


Train rolls on with a double.
Bank was miscalculated yesterday, so that has been corrected.
Thinking of using 5% bet unit instead of 10% with train destination goal of quintupled bank ($200).
The increases would then occur at $120, $200. That might be better. We'll see.
See how cocky one gets when playing in the black?!
Anyways, I do want to implement a progressive bet unit for the simple exercise of maintaining focus.
Today we look to capitalize on false favorites (based on ML).

Today's plays (8-30-2015): $2wp

WO r#4
8 EXECUTIVE ONE***** (8-1)

BTP r#7
5 WANDO'S STORM*** (15-1)

And yes, that is a 5-star. Don't go making him chalk now. ;-)
Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$85.20
- 8.00
+21.60
======
$98.80


Train rolls on with a double.
Bank was miscalculated yesterday, so that has been corrected.
Thinking of using 5% bet unit instead of 10% with train destination goal of quintupled bank ($200).
The increases would then occur at $120, $200. That might be better. We'll see.
See how cocky one gets when playing in the black?!
Anyways, I do want to implement a progressive bet unit for the simple exercise of maintaining focus.
Today we look to capitalize on false favorites (based on ML).

Today's plays (8-30-2015): $2wp

WO r#4
8 EXECUTIVE ONE***** (8-1) ........ 1st $10.30 $5.60

BTP r#7
5 WANDO'S STORM*** (15-1) ........ 3rd @ 11-1

And yes, that is a 5-star. Don't go making him chalk now. ;-)
Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$98.80
- 8.00
+15.90
======
$106.70


When WANDO'S STORM opened up 2-lengths in mid-stretch it looked like we were going to have a big payday.
Train rolls on with nice 5-star winner.

Today's plays (8-31-2015): $2wp

PRX r#1
6 ANDY'S LOVE*** (20-1)

TDN r#4
2 PATRICIA'S IMAGE*** (12-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Lt1]

You are doing a great job Prof. Good luck today

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thanks LT. Same to you.

 

[DownDaStretchDeyCome]

Use a grate cappa Prof

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$98.80
- 8.00
+15.90
======
$106.70


When WANDO'S STORM opened up 2-lengths in mid-stretch it looked like we were going to have a big payday.
Train rolls on with nice 5-star winner.

Today's plays (8-31-2015): $2wp

PRX r#1
6 ANDY'S LOVE*** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 8-1

TDN r#4
2 PATRICIA'S IMAGE*** (12-1) ........ off the board @ 15-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$106.70
- 8.00
======
$98.70


Both picks off the board. ANDY'S LOVE was really bet down.

Today's plays (9-01-2015): $2wp

FL r#8
4 ONCE MORE FOR LOVE**** (10-1)

IND r#10
8 BITTEL PATTERN** (20-1)

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Lt1]

Good luck today Prof.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thanks LT.

 

[Prof_Factor]

ONCE MORE FOR LOVE wins. Morning line favorite finishes off the board.
Nailed superfecta with my little 8 combination play I talked about before.

Jiminez has elected to not ride our longshot at IND. So that's not good.
But DeLa Cruz has picked it up .... so I'm good with that. Gives our hapless longshot some hope.
Regardless, it's been a good day and the Train will roll forward to boot.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$106.70
- 8.00
======
$98.70


Both picks off the board. ANDY'S LOVE was really bet down.

Today's plays (9-01-2015): $2wp

FL r#8
4 ONCE MORE FOR LOVE**** (10-1) ........ 1st $13.80 $4.80

IND r#10
8 BITTEL PATTERN** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 12-1

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$98.70
- 8.00
+18.60
======
$109.30


Train resumes locomotion.

Today's plays (9-02-2015): $2wp

- none -


Have to pass Wednesday. Other things to do. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$109.30
- 0.00
+ 0.00
======
$109.30


Train resumes locomotion. Chugga-chugga choo-choo!

Today's plays (9-03-2015): $2wp

GP r#10
1 ALLYOUNEEDISLOVIN**** (4-1)

PEN r#5
5 PAPARAZZI GIRL**** (10-1)


Tidbit: The Conner boys have brought in their last 3 favs (easily) at PEN since I posted their stats a few weeks back. Ironic!
Yeah, I'm still watching you boyz ....
Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[$4nothing]

GP r#10
1 ALLYOUNEEDISLOVIN**** (4-1) SCRATCHED

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$109.30
- 0.00
+ 0.00
======
$109.30


Train resumes locomotion. Chugga-chugga choo-choo!

Today's plays (9-03-2015): $2wp

GP r#10
1 ALLYOUNEEDISLOVIN**** (4-1) ........ scratched

PEN r#5
5 PAPARAZZI GIRL**** (10-1) ........ off the board @ 5-2


Tidbit: The Conner boys have brought in their last 3 favs (easily) at PEN since I posted their stats a few weeks back. Ironic!
Yeah, I'm still watching you boyz ....
Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$109.30
- 4.00
======
$105.30


No luck at PEN last night. Horse bet down to nothing and given a bonehead ride.
We're not going with jerk jocks today!

Today's plays (9-04-2015): $2wp

WO r#2
3 ROYAL WARRIOR**** (6-1)

WO r#9
10 THE FEATHER LANDS*** (10-1)


Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Lt1]

Best of luck Prof.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$109.30
- 4.00
======
$105.30


No luck at PEN last night. Horse bet down to nothing and given a bonehead ride.
We're not going with jerk jocks today!

Today's plays (9-04-2015): $2wp

WO r#2
3 ROYAL WARRIOR**** (6-1) ........ 2nd $3.20 @ 9-5

WO r#9
10 THE FEATHER LANDS*** (10-1) ........ 2nd $5.80 @ 7-1


Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$105.30
- 8.00
+ 9.00
======
$106.30


ROYAL WARRIOR was bet down to stupid.
Train limps on with a pair of dueces.

Today's plays (9-05-2015): $2wp

BTP r#5
4 YANKEE DIVA**** (6-1)

IND r#5
7 FRAN'S FLATTER**** (10-1)


Congrats to jockey Euclyn Prentice Jr for 1st winner aboard pick-up mount DRIVIN MISS ELLIE @ 13-1 in ELP race 8.
Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]