Rex Walters [2012 NCAA-B]

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Hey boys, new to this joint but excited to be here. I've been betting for a decade, but have kept pretty quiet about it; I have a few buddies I talk about gambling with, but it's a small circle. I was born and raised in Kansas and have been watching Jay Hawks basketball for over 30 years. I love betting on College B-Ball, but the MLB, NFL and NBA are my best sports.

I have used a variety of handicapping methods over the years and am pretty happy with my current methods. I figured I might as well join a community or two to talk the shit with like-minded peers ... so here I am.

Nice to meet you all and i'm looking forward to learn, share and win money!

My betting style is as follows:

At the beginning of the year I decide my starting bank.

  • I rank my bets either 5 units or 2 units (about 75% of my picks are ranked as 2 units, the other 25% as 5 units). 1 unit is equal to 1% of my starting bank, so a 2 unit bet is 2% of my starting bank.

  • I'd say that I make around 1000 bets per year (to give a rounded number) and I try to win 56% of my picks and I aim to profit 200 units each year.

  • I watch/track my average line (bet) very closely, as juice can KILL you over the course of a year and so can betting over priced lines.

  • I like for my average line to finish in the -110 to -113 range, to ensure a yearly ROI of +200%.
So anyways, that's a brief intro about me. Real name isn't Rex Walters, but I chose this name not only because it sounds cool, but in remembrance of the year Rex Walters lead the Jay Hawks to the final four (1993). Walters, who is the same age as me, was an inspiration for me at College, overseas, in the NBA and even now; coaching San Francisco in the NCAA. He reminds me that no matter your age or personal situation: always follow your heart, work hard and dream big.

I'll post my Saturday CBK picks in about 15 minutes, as well as start my record from scratch .. because I don't think that would be fair. Just wanted to introduce myself first to ya.

I'll also keep a season long thread going for tracking purposes.



2012 Results
Average line: +100
Return on Investment: +0%

ALL Bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)


-------------------------
CBK: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)

NBA: 0-0 +0 (100%)

5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)

NHL: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
 

Even DONKS win sometimes... Right?
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For some reason you strike me as legitimate and a winner. Hope my read is right. Welcome to the RX and best of luck!
 

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Hey blue baron, same here buddy. Thanks Donkwin, that's nice of ya to say.

These are my five picks in the NCAA today. No NBA or NHL. Have a good day all!

Saturday NCAA-B
[February 18th]
5u Bets:
5.5 units risked on COLORADO STATE -2.5 (-110)
5.5 units risked on ELON -2.5 (-110)

2u Bets:
2.2 units risked on MASSACHUSETS (UMASS) -2.5 -110
2.36 units risked on CHARLOTTE +7 (-118) 'bought the hook'
2.2 units risked on NORTHWESTERN -4 -110


5.5 units risked on COLORADO STATE -2.5 (-110)

The Colorado State Rams play host to the Wyoming Cowboys tonight. Colorado State is 15-9 on the season with the 75th most difficult schedule while Wyoming is 18-7 but with the 168th most difficult schedule. These teams have had one previous meeting, this season, with Wyoming winning 70-51. The Cowboys also out rebounded Colorado State in that game, 32-23, with 9 more offensive rebounds (12-3). This is not the same situation and Colorado State will be able to control the tempo in tonights game on route to a win.

Wyoming is purely a defensive minded team, sporting one of the best defenses in the NCAA but also one of the worst offenses. This works for them at home, as they can use their home crowd to better control the tempo, but average 3 points less on the road and allow 3 points more. Colorado State has a very solid offense, but lack on the defensive side; making this re-match very interesting. Col State averages a FG% of 49.6, at home, and a 3pt% of 41.9. Wyoming, despite their solid defense, averages one less rebound per game than opponents (on the road). Colorado State, however, averages 3 more rebounds than opponents do (at home).

Colorado St. finished just 2-8 on the road, while Wyoming is 13-3 at home .. BUT .. Colorado St. is 11-1 at home and Wyoming is 5-4 on the road .. different story. Although that 70-51 victory is fresh in everbody's minds, Colorado St won ALL of the four previous meetings, on average, by 10.5 points. Wyoming has only faced three teams ranked as good or better than Colorado St, on the road, and are 1-2 SU in those games. Colorado state has faced 5 teams ranked as good or better than Wyoming, at home, and are 4-1 in those games; including wins over San Diego State and Denver, two teams that beat Wyoming.

All five of Colorado State's starters average 8+ points, with Wes Eikmeier leading the team in scoring with 17 PPG and a 20 PPG average in his past five games. He has scored 56 points in his past two starts and will need to step-up in tonights game; scoring just 2 points on 6 shots in these teams most recent meeting. Colorado State not only has a better FG, 3pt and FT% than Wyoming .. but they have better rebounding and more importantly a deeper bench. Wyoming does have three players on their roster who average 12-13 PPG, but that is 60% of their offense so when one of the three players is having an off night, the team struggles to keep up with opponents.

Now, let's look at this situation. Colorado State is coming off two heart-breaking losses, but have not lost three straight games this season. Both of those losses were on the road, both losses were by less than four points and they were small underdogs in both games. Now they come home, with two days of rest, for a HOME rematch against Wyoming (they'll be fired up to get back on track); Colorado State is 6-1 SU/ATS this season with two days of rest. Wyoming has also lost two straight games, by 10 points as 9.5 point road underdogs and then at home by 5 points as 12 point home favorites. Wyoming shot just 32% from the field. Wyoming may also be looking ahead to their rematch game @ #15 team in the nation, San Diego State, on Wednesday; but I wouldn't weight that with much importance.

Final Recap: Colorado State will do a better job of controlling the pace of tonights game, resulting in more offensive rebounds, more offensive input from their key players and as hard as Wyomings defense works, their offense won't keep up with Colorado State's resulting in the Rams 12th home win of the season. Colorado State 66 - Wyoming 59


5.5 units risked on ELON -2.5 (-110)

Going to keep this description VERY short. I REALLY like Elon in this spot and you should too. They've lost three straight road games, but before that won three straight home games and now return home; I expect the trend to continue. Elon is 4-10 on the road .. BUT .. 9-3 at home (13-13 overall). Western Carolina is 7-4 at home .. BUT .. 3-12 on the road (11-17 overall). Their records show enough by itself, as these teams have had nearly identical schedules. Western Carolina's defense is awful on the road and so is their rebounding, which I expect to make a big difference in tonights game. These teams met three weeks ago with Elon walking away with an 8 point win and I have no reasons to believe Elon doesn't win by 8+ points at home as well. I would say this game looks too good to be true, but we are betting on Elon; so can that really be the case? This game will not gather much public attention and an attentive eye will show you there is GREAT value in this line. Elon wins this basketball game no problem. Elon 75 - W. Carolina 68
 

Go Cubs Go
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Welcome. If you begin to succeed, you will draw doubters, haters, and envious posters... be prepared to manage and ignore them. If you begin to falter, even briefly, you will experience the like. Just keep a strong-minded approach throughout and wear thick skin. Success breeds envy, don't forget that. Best of luck!
 

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Feb 17, 2012
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Saturdays Average Line: -111.6 (5 bets)
2012 YTD Average Line: -111.6 (5 bets)
 

New member
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Feb 17, 2012
Messages
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Welcome. If you begin to succeed, you will draw doubters, haters, and envious posters... be prepared to manage and ignore them. If you begin to falter, even briefly, you will experience the like. Just keep a strong-minded approach throughout and wear thick skin. Success breeds envy, don't forget that. Best of luck!

Hey Jcubs. I've read a few of these forums quite a bit over the years, as I can often find good information mixed as well as square bettors opinions. I never joined for some of the reasons you mentioned, fear of those things, but also for lack of time and I wasn't confident in my methods. I no longer have any of those fears, have much more time to invest on sports and am now confident with the foundation of my methods; though they'll be forever changing.

This is the internet, so if people have shitty stuff to say about me - so fucking what. It won't hurt as much (if at all) compared to comments from from my friends or family (who for the most-part are Anti-Gambling). If posting on here brings me negative energy as well as negative comments, I could care less. I am sure there are just as many nice people on here as there are shit disturbers, or this site wouldn't still be active.

Take my opinion for what it is, my opinion. Make your own opinion based on the information in front of you and if you do follow me, don't comment when shit's not going well. No person wins every day of the year, no person wins every week of the year - heck, most people don't win every year; so if you can't understand patience, hard work and bankroll management - then you have no right to complain when a result doesn't go your way.

Basically, what I am trying to say is that if anybody does have negative shit to say to me .. I will block them, if possible, rather than responding .. as there is no point in wasting postive energy on negative people.

Thanks for your thoughts and opinion. It is appreciated.
 

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Feb 17, 2012
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Thanks optimo. Elon fucking lost in OT, but oh well. Moving on .. still four games on the card for the night cap.

GL
 

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Rex, welcome. The most important question I have for you, since your posts have such a professional feel... if you get hot are you going to try to go tout?? If so, you have come to the right place! Happens all the time here
 

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Element. That won't be happening buddy. I already have a job that I love and wouldn't ever have the time to commit to becoming a tout.

Thanks doogie boy!
 

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Element. That won't be happening buddy. I already have a job that I love and wouldn't ever have the time to commit to becoming a tout.

Thanks doogie boy!

glad to hear... anyone smart doesn't pay for plays anyway! BOL to you!
 

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Feb 17, 2012
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Thanks Plaz.

Not a great day, 3-2 +1.3, but we turned a profit so who is to complain.

2012 Results
Average line: -111.6 (5 bets)
Return on Investment: +1.3%

ALL Bets: 3-2 +1.3 (60%)
5u bets: 1-1 -0.5 (50%)
2u bets: 2-1 +1.8 (67%)

-------------------------
CBK: 3-2 +1.3 (60%)
5u bets: 1-1 -0.5 (50%)
2u bets: 2-1 +1.8 (67%)

NBA: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)

NHL: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
 

New member
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Feb 17, 2012
Messages
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2012 Results
Average line: -111.6 (5 bets)
Return on Investment: +1.3%

ALL Bets: 3-2 +1.3 (60%)
5u bets: 1-1 -0.5 (50%)
2u bets: 2-1 +1.8 (67%)

-------------------------
CBK: 3-2 +1.3 (60%)
5u bets: 1-1 -0.5 (50%)
2u bets: 2-1 +1.8 (67%)

NBA: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)

NHL: 0-0 +0 (100%)
5u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)
2u bets: 0-0 +0 (100%)

Sundays Average Line: -110 (1 bet)
2012 YTD Average Line: -111.33 (6 bets)
Sunday NCAA-B

[February 19th]

Just one NCAAB wager today. There will be one NBA wager as well as one NHL wager.

5u Bets:

5.5 units risked on PURDUE +5 (-110)

The public will be all over Michigan State in this game and why not? You're getting the #8 ranked team in the country at just -4.5, have covered the spread in four straight games and in 10 of their past 13. Easy win right?

I want to start by saying Michigan State has not been an underdog in a single game this season, but have been 5 pt or less favorites four times .. losing SU and ATS in 3 of those 4 games (all on the road).

Purdue has played six games versus top 25 teams this year, losing just two of those games by 6+ points (one being @ Michigan State, the other VS Indiana).
They only won one of those games, but the point is they have quality players and give teams a run for their money (at home). They are 3-1 versus teams ranked 26th to 50th and 4-1 versus teams ranked 51st to 100th. Out of the 15 games they've faced versus the top 100 teams, they are 8-7 SU but have lost just 3 games (20%) by 6+ points.

Michigan State is 5-3 on the road this season, with two of those losses against teams worst than Purdue. Just six of those road games were @ teams ranked within the top 100 and Michigan St won just two of six (33%) by 6+ points.

Purdue has two more opportunities for wins against ranked teams (@ Michigan/@ Indiana).

Despite Michigan State being ranked higher than both Michigan and Indiana, this is Purdue's final home game versus a ranked team and thus their best opportunity to make an impression on the March Madness commitee.

Purdue will be without DJ Byrd tonight (suspended indefinitely for public intoxication) but I only believe that helps Purdue, as I have notived he is not much of a play maker (ie. hogs the ball a lot and takes bad shots late in the game).
Purdue has many other capable playmakers, with a very deep bench. Purdue will need a big came from Robbie Hummel, who is averaging 16 points per game but scored just two in their most recent meeting with Michigan State.

Hummel did not play in any of the three games between Purdue and Michigan State, last season (due to injury), but Purdue did finish 2-1 SU in those meetings (losing in the March Madness tournament).

Now, the situation. Michigan State had two days of rest/preperation before this afternoon game on the road, they are just 3-3 SU versus top 100 teams on the road, at an underrated Purdue team (because they have yet to win any of those tight finishes versus ranked teams). Purdue had an extra, third, day to prepare/rest for this afternoon game at home, they are 11-3 at home (losing just one of 14 home games by 6+ points) and are fresh off a road win, as underdogs, that must have gave them confidence for tonight. Purdue is better rested, more fired up (revenge factor) and will most definitely compete all game with Michigan State. Purdue will take, approximately, ten more 3pters than Michigan State and their success, or lack of, will be the difference in tonights game. Purdue does have worst FT shooting than Michigan State, which may cost them another missed opportunity at the SU win; but i'd rather be the optimistic who believes that this afternoon will be different and the Boilermakers shock the country with a home win over the Spartans.

Purdue 65 - Michigan State 62
 

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Feb 17, 2012
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Thanks Donk. I've added the NBA pick but need to wait on line movement in the NHL as well as see starting goalies/line-ups. I'll post the NHL wager later this afternoon.

As of now:

Sundays Average Line: -110 (2 bets)
2012 YTD Average Line: -111.14 (7 bets)
 

Go Cubs Go
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
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I like Purdue in this spot, but FYI... MSU was an underdog of about 8 points just last week at OSU when they won outright by 10. Nonetheless, good luck!
 

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