Reverse middling experiment: YTD: 1-5, -3.42

[quantumleap]

I mentioned in a previous post that the home team wins by exactly 1 run in 2 out of 11 games. It just happened that I picked this scenario in 2 out of 3 games. Still, this is worth taking a look at in my opinion.

Operation Bets, 66%, look at it this way, if you guys are right we have found a way to make money by fading this experiment. But if this experiment goes by the percentages of baseball then this will start to come around.

Picks for Wed.-

ChCubs -1.5 +127 over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh +123 over ChCubs

 

[SSI]

i like your choice for wed, i looked at it and thats the one that i would have selected..

 

[OpeRaTiOnBeTs]

well, 7 more units to go, made me some money today fading ur ugly ass. thanks kiddo.

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks SSI. Road favorites are treated a little differently than home favorites. Here's the breakdown-

Road favorites win by more than 1 in 4 games out of 9.

Road favorites win by exactly 1 in 1 game out of 9.

Home dogs win in 4 games out of 9.

Using Wed. pick, the chances of winning break down line this-

Road favorite (Cubs) win 4 times = 4 * (127 - 100) = +1.08

Road favorite wins by 1 run 1 time = (-100 -100) = -2.00

Home dog (Pitt) wins 4 times = 4 * (123 - 100) = +0.92

Net = 1.08 - 2.00 + 0.92 = 0.00

That would be for the average MLB game.

However, the total for this game is at 9 so I think it is worth a shot. None of the home favorites/road dogs in the other games add up so I'm going with this pick.

(Hint: an easy way to calculate this is to subtract 100 from the road favorite's line and subtract 100 from the home dog's line in the same game. If the numbers add up to 50 it's an even bet.)

 

[quantumleap]

Operation Bets: have you been checking out my ass?

Good luck.

 

[quantumleap]

Here's one more-

Atl -1.5 +146 over Cin
Cin +102 over Atl

 

[jaypaw]

its really working to fade this sytem huh?

hmmm

 

[OpeRaTiOnBeTs]

woohoo good job idiot. u make maybe .27 units with ur cubs wins, thats 27 bux? and now ur gonna lose atl -1.5, great job moron keep ur sucking up.

 

[SSI]

im not going to knock him and i dont see how you could fade this, the returns are simply not enough on this.. if he had a dime on braves -1.5 and dime on reds +1.02, he is riksing $2000 if the braves win by 1.. most return he could have gotten was $460 if braves won by 2 or more and he will win a whopping $20 if reds win the game,, $2000 to to win $20 just wont work.. there are simply too many 1 run games to do this..

 

[quantumleap]

SSI:

I took my information from www.thelogicalapproach.com. When the road team is favored, on the average 1 game in 9 ends up with the road team winning by 1. The home team can still win by 1 and the bet doesn't lose. If a person risks $2000, the return can be $460, not just $20.

The number of games I have bet have not justified concluding that this is a poor way to bet.

 

[OpeRaTiOnBeTs]

u are proving to be an idiot. keep it up, the world would be boring without morons to make us laugh our asses off

 

[SSI]

i told you that i worked with this last year and also another persone did as well,,,, posted under the heading "Polish Middle".. its called a polish middle for a reason, you cant win them both but you can lose them both.. i didnt laugh at you, i simply said that the return did not justify the risk, there are better ways to bet.. i have been there and done that..

 

[quantumleap]

SSI:

Thanks for the input. You're a solid capper and I respect your picks. I even have learned a few things from you on this experiment. Please feel free to comment.

Today's result: 2-2 +0.73
YTD: 3-7, -2.69

 

[SSI]

thanks, im not telling you to give up but be a little more selective, id only do 1 per day (if that) and try to stick to high scoring teams.. until furcal hit the homer with two outs in the 10th, it was sitting on atl 6/reds 5 and that would have hammered you again,,, ill go look at tomorrows card and offer an opinion,, i told you cubs looked good for today..

 

[SSI]

doesnt look good as most home teams are laying the 1.5 runs.. first glance, id go with balt-1.5/tb + the juice.. second choice would be AZ-1.5 and mil + the juice..

 

[quantumleap]

I like Bos/Tor as well. I looked at AZ/Mil too. Even though they don't meet my criteria of having a total of 9 or more, I thought I might make an exception. But then I looked at Webb and Obermueller and they both have an ERA around 3.00 so I'm backing off.

Thur. picks to come.