Reverse middling experiment, YTD: 0-2 -2.00

quantumleap · Apr 19, 2004

OK. I provided my numbers in a previous post and no one could refute them. So I lost both bets on 2 runs in the top of the 9th for SD. That's ok because I think my numbers are solid. Operation Bets said that if I don't go -10.00 units after 1 week that he is out for a month. I will even include the -2.00 for tonight.

Here is for 4/20-

Atl +102 over Cin
Cin -1.5 +186 over Atl
Thomson/Acevedo

KC -1.5 +158 over Cle
Cle +101 over KC
Anderson/Durbin

IHIT66WINNERS · Apr 20, 2004

This is a lost cause.

SSI · Apr 20, 2004

your best bet is to not do this, however if you do,, play the american league team where the road team is -1.5 (+juice).. home teams and under teams can and do win by exactly 1 run.. take what your doing and apply it to american league teams that go over the total.. dont do it with teams that are low scoring and have pitching duels.. you picked a pretty good one in KC tonight..

OpeRaTiOnBeTs · Apr 20, 2004

cant wait for my balance to go up by 10+ units in only 1 week!!, thanks for posting kiddo.

quantumleap · Apr 20, 2004

Thanks for the input SSI. You make a good point in mentioning the teams that go over. The home dogs are already figured in the calculation though so I'll stick with those unless they are low-scoring teams.

Operation Bets, 66%, thanks for encouraging me to stick with the experiment.

SSI · Apr 20, 2004

i did some work on this last year as strage as it may seem, we called it a "Polish Middle".. stick with the over teams that are on road, especially american league,, important to take road team -1.5 (+juice), if tied or behind then home team will win by exactly 1.. it can be done but you have to be selective..

SSI · Apr 20, 2004

see you took the reds and they were a NL home team, they didnt bat in bottom of 9th, so you only got 8 at bats in that one..

quantumleap · Apr 20, 2004

SSI:

The numbers I took were for baseball as a whole. Perhaps the American League is better as a rule because they generally are higher-scoring than the National League. I think the key here is high scoring games and you can get those in the National League.

One of the things I look at is the total line. The total for the Reds/Braves game was at 9 so I thought it would be a higher scoring game than it was.

I mentioned in an earlier post that home favorites win by exactly 1 run in 2 out of 11 games. This is taking into account not batting in the bottom of the 9th so I believe this is already factored in.