Reverse Line Movement

[letsgohoosiers]

I don't believe entirely in reverse line movement. Been tracking and got a 88-87 record for games where more than 50% are on one side and the line moves the other way.

However, I do believe that it can be tweaked in a profitable way.

Bet on any team with over 60% of the total bets placed where the line moves at least 1.5 points in the other direction. Record is 20-5.

• Games with 1917+ bets are 18-2-1. In other words, stay away from games with essentially no action.
• Any team with a 2.5 point RLM or higher and 60% is 6-0.
• The high volume games (6537+ bets) are 7-0-1.
• Games over 10K in total bets are 6-0-1.
• Games over 15K in total bets are 5-0.

Here's the query on 60%+ and -1.5 line movement, enjoy! (Note: tracking since 1-24).

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="521" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="732"><col style="width: 35pt;" width="46"> <col style="width: 21pt;" width="28"> <col style="width: 117pt;" width="156"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="35"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 30pt;" width="40"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 35pt;" width="46" height="20">Date</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" width="28">#</td> <td style="width: 117pt;" width="156">Team</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">Bets</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="35">%</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Op</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Cl</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">Ch</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Res</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">25-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">79</td> <td class="xl64">843 Pittsburgh</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">20859</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">84%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">78</td> <td class="xl64">543 Oklahoma</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">14298</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">84%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>PUSH</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">73</td> <td class="xl64">529 Tulsa</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">4570</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">83%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">74</td> <td class="xl64">534 Syracuse</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">15684</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">79%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl64">559 James Madison</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">2550</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">78%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">0</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">1-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl64">877 Portland State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6194</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">75%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">79</td> <td class="xl64">563 Central Florida</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">3540</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">74%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-2.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">28-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">86</td> <td class="xl64">538 South Carolina</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6088</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">73%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-7.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">64</td> <td class="xl64">618 Cornell</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1917</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">5-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl64">787 Weber State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1719</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">86</td> <td class="xl64">684 Austin Peay</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1442</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">71%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-8</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">88</td> <td class="xl64">619 Saint Louis</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">3210</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">69%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">68</td> <td class="xl64">620 Michigan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">16186</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">69%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-6.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">78</td> <td class="xl64">572 Mississippi</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">2946</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1</td> <td align="right">-4.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">29-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">62</td> <td class="xl64">761 Saint Marys CA</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">19380</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">8</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">9.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl64">530 Xavier</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">4214</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-17.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-16</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">71</td> <td class="xl64">627 George Mason</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">3290</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">3</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">53</td> <td class="xl64">698 Coll Charleston</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">848</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-12</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">3-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">81</td> <td class="xl64">718 Kent State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">6537</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-15.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">59</td> <td class="xl64">587 UNLV</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">5798</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-10.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">5-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">52</td> <td class="xl64">783 Morehead State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1838</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">69</td> <td class="xl64">672 Georgia Southern</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1917</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">64%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-13</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-11.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">27-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">73</td> <td class="xl64">724 Wyoming</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">11157</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-9.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-8</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">29-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">66</td> <td class="xl64">714 Cleveland State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">2273</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-16</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">83</td> <td class="xl64">692 Portland State</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1679</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-16.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-14</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">2-Feb</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">75</td> <td class="xl64">521 Kansas</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">23050</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
For you noobs, it's SportsInsights.com where I got the information.

 

[Delta00]

so you are essentialy betting AGAINST what is perceived to be the "smart money", and it is remarkably successful. certainly interesting

 

[letsgohoosiers]

so you are essentialy betting AGAINST what is perceived to be the "smart money", and it is remarkably successful. certainly interesting

Wow I'm stupid. Just realized what I was doing isn't reverse line movement at all, rather betting against the reverse line movement, LOL! But yeah, you're correct, bet against the "smart money".

I actually don't believe in the low percentages/RLM at all. I just started "capping" basketball simply by looking at bets and percentages and have been doing great simply taking teams with high percentages and high numbers.

 

[jacksonjohn]

Wow I'm stupid. Just realized what I was doing isn't reverse line movement at all, rather betting against the reverse line movement, LOL! But yeah, you're correct, bet against the "smart money".

I actually don't believe in the low percentages/RLM at all. I just started "capping" basketball simply by looking at bets and percentages and have been doing great simply taking teams with high percentages and high numbers.

Thanks for the heads-up. Will you be posting the plays each day?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Sure, why not? Anything to beat the book.

EDIT-Game did not fit criteria.

 

[In2Win]

I was gonna say this could be a reason for the jump in line

Semo's top player, Calvin Williams, has been dismissed from the basketball team "because of a violation of athletic department policy. University personnel will have no further comment."

 

[rjohnny]

do you have any plays today?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Ole Miss +7.5

Opened at +6, now at +7.5

Sports Insights showing 61% on Ole Miss and 8055 bets placed. This is at the 12:10 update though, could change in 4 minutes with the 12:40 update.

 

[rjohnny]

Just got it
gl

 

[Cougfan]

About as square as it gets. I can't believe this has actually been profitable, but the numbers don't lie.

 

[Cougfan]

Ole Miss +7.5

Opened at +6, now at +7.5

Sports Insights showing 61% on Ole Miss and 8055 bets placed. This is at the 12:10 update though, could change in 4 minutes with the 12:40 update.

Got live updates, went down to 58% with 9876 bets.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Got live updates, went down to 58% with 9876 bets.

Thanks, might be something I want to invest in, we shall see.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Oklahoma -19.5 qualifies currently.

wsucscs do you have the updated betting %?

Showing 62% with 4491 bets placed, opened on Pinny at -21 now at -19.5

 

[Cougfan]

59%, 5045 bets

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Thanks, looks like it's not a play either.

Still waiting for that game over 60%.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Buffalo -15 almost qualifies for 2:00, just need Pinny to drop from 15.5 to 15 like the rest of the books have.

Showing 67% with 1719 bets placed.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Sorry guys, haven't seen anything that fits the criteria yet!

3:30 Kansas has had the line move 1 point the other way, Pinny is close to making it 1.5. Showing 58% on Kansas.

EDIT - FINALLY

4:00 Cleveland State looks like a play. 61% on Cleveland State and the line moved from -7.5 to -6. If the percentages hold up it's a play.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Pinnacle dropped Kansas to -10.

It's currently at 60%, should be a play if those percentages hold up.

Anyone know of a site with up-to-the-minute percentages for free?

 

[seanjohn007]

where are you getting 61%on cleveland? i was looking at covers and it says 79% on clev st. do all the offshore books have to be on the same number/ or are you picking one book and using that? because like you said the line has moved to -6 in all books except one (wsex)

 

[letsgohoosiers]

3:10 update showed Kansas 62%, -1.5 line movement, it is a PLAY

Kansas -10.5