Reverse Line Move Thread NBA

[cowpokes]

Hey guys, I figured I would just post these plays if anyone is interested. Hogsfan, Ankles and I have been using this in college hoops and it has hit at about 55% over 3 weeks. I thought I would try it out with the NBA and see how it does. I am not suggesting to you to play these. Just wanted to keep track so if things do well, you could benefit from it.

1. We use 3 books: 5 dimes, olympic and pinnacle.
2. We need at least 70% on one side of the play and at least 1 full point of reverse line movement.
3. Due to numbers constantly changing and for the fact of giving people time to play the game if they choose, all plays will be posted in bold 30 minutes before game time.


Ankles has been keeping track of the ATS plays and says its around 4-1. We will start with a fresh record. Also Ankles or I will post reverse line moves for totals. I am pretty sure these have been below 50% but we will keep track anyways. GOODLUCK!

 

[gabbana]

bol..great ideat to track this kind of games.

 

[cowpokes]

Thanks, like I said just trying to help and let everyone benefit with the %'s line moves etc. If you do not like the reverse idea, you can at least look at your games for the night.

 

[cowpokes]

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR class=HeadOrangeTop id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>

</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56>
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header style="PADDING-RIGHT: 12px; PADDING-LEFT: 12px; WIDTH: 150px" colSpan=3>Market
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD></TR><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>Time
</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=50>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=50>ML
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=50>OU
</TD><TD width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh18 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,18); width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD width=75>5Dimes
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh6 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,6); width=75>5Dimes
</TD></TR><TR id=e154435 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e154435', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
7:05P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>701 Boston Celtics
702 Orlando Magic
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>9111
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>72%
28%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>79%
21%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>57%
43%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>193 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>192 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5o-108
-5-105
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>191.5u-109
-5-101
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>191.5 -110
-5-110
</TD></TR><TR id=e154438 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e154438', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
9:35P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>703 Washington Wizards
704 Los Angeles Lakers
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>2682
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>5%
95%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>69%
31%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207.5 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>208 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -105
-15.5-103
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>208o-114
-14-106
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Sorry for some reason the last box did not get the number listed it is 208.5 -14

 

[cowpokes]

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR class=HeadOrangeTop id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>

</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56>
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header style="PADDING-RIGHT: 12px; PADDING-LEFT: 12px; WIDTH: 150px" colSpan=3>Market
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD></TR><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>Time
</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=50>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=50>ML
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=50>OU
</TD><TD width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh18 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,18); width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD width=75>5Dimes
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh6 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,6); width=75>5Dimes
</TD></TR><TR id=e154435 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e154435', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
7:05P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>701 Boston Celtics
702 Orlando Magic
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>10193
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>70%
30%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>69%
31%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>49%
51%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>193 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>191.5 -110
-5-105
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5o-108
-5-105
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>191.5u-114
-5+103
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>191.5 -110
-4.5-110
</TD></TR><TR id=e154438 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e154438', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
9:35P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>703 Washington Wizards
704 Los Angeles Lakers
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>3039
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>46%
54%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>5%
95%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>72%
28%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207.5 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>208 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -105
-15.5-103
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>208 -105
-14-106
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>208 -110
-14-110
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[NumberZ]

I was curious as to how you interpret reverse line moves..what do you think the moves represent? contrarian ideologies from sportsbooks, trying to bate in even more money on a side, or on a total when public bets hard on one side? Sharp money? Books inside info? Books knowing who will cover? etc? How do you interpret reverse line moves? In my experience everyone, feels differently about it..curious to hear your thoughts..

It's important to find an edge when betting..

I hope this works out for you and gives you the edge you need to win

Best of luck,

Z

 

[MetsFan44]

IMO, the theory behind this system is with the majority of the public "squares" being on one side of the line yet the number heads the other way by 1 point or more, is that "sharp money" is on that side going the other way.

 

[cowpokes]

Ya, heres what I personally believe. Take it for what its worth. The 3 books we use for our lines take high dollar amounts of bets according to sports insights ( up to $35,000). In my opinion when 70% of bettors are on one side and the line reverses, it is sharp bettors making big wagers on one side forcing the books to need more money on the public side.

So basically I believe when there is a play, we are betting with the sharps.

 

[NumberZ]

IMO, the theory behind this system is with the majority of the public "squares" being on one side of the line yet the number heads the other way by 1 point or more, is that "sharp money" is on that side going the other way.

So in effect your looking to tail sharps :aktion033

And since, unfortunately, they do not post their plays, anywhere :lol:
You are looking to tail them by, exposing what their plays are, through the suggestive hints that line movement can provide..a strategy that is not unheard of..I understand you correctly, right?

I hope it will be profitable for you guys, and I will be wishing you the best of luck along the way

P.S. Does anyone have a different interpretation of reverse line movement? By no means trying to suggest that Ankles, is wrong, by asking, just trying to spark a convo..I actually think that the type of thinking that inspired this strategy, is exactly the type of thinking, and approach, one must take to beat the book..

In other words, find an edge, and if it is profitable and more importantly reliable, take advantage, and use it to help you beat the book :aktion033

GL to you in the future ,

Z

 

[NumberZ]

Ya, heres what I personally believe. Take it for what its worth. The 3 books we use for our lines take high dollar amounts of bets according to sports insights ( up to $35,000). In my opinion when 70% of bettors are on one side and the line reverses, it is sharp bettors making big wagers on one side forcing the books to need more money on the public side.

So basically I believe when there is a play, we are betting with the sharps.

Good luck, once again

Do you think there any alternative ways to explain reverse line movement? other reasonable explanations?

Z

 

[cowpokes]

Here is an explanation from sports insights.


The Smart Money betting strategy can ONLY be viewed with the Premium Pro Membership. It is the most innovative and groundbreaking betting strategy found on SportsInsights.com. The Smart Money strategy is an alert-based feature that appears whenever the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. The alert is triggered automatically whenever the betting line (moneyline, O/U, or point-spread) moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. We use our massive database of betting percentage data and line moves to find the optimal triggering formula. The Smart Money strategy alert is designed to help members notice unusual betting line movement and quickly capitalize on it.

Betting lines move for many reasons; injury updates, weather, etc., but “betting line movement” that goes against the “betting percentages” is an excellent indicator of Smart or Wiseguy Money. For example, 77% of the public is betting on NYJ -7, but the line moves to NYJ -6. This line movement would trigger a "Smart Money" alert. A history for prior Smart Money Alerts can be found in the Line History feature for that specific game. We use our massive database of public betting data and line movement info to pinpoint the optimal triggering settings. We do all the number crunching for you. You just sit back and relax. Premium Pro Members can choose to be notified by email, text message, or pop-up alerts. Premium Pro Members also enjoy the ability to track Smart Money plays by triggering sportsbooks and which sportsbook betting percentage is used. Don't you think it would be important to know that Smart Plays triggered by Sportsbook X were winning at 59% while Smart Plays triggered by Sportsbook Y were only 51%?

 

[cowpokes]

I do not shell out the big money for the premium pro feature so i just go on line moves and % as my indicator.

 

[cowpokes]

<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR class=HeadOrangeTop id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>

</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56>
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header style="PADDING-RIGHT: 12px; PADDING-LEFT: 12px; WIDTH: 150px" colSpan=3>Market
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75> Open
</TD><TD class=linebox_header width=75>
</TD></TR><TR class=HeadOrange id=header><TD id=score_header width=62>Time
</TD><TD id=info_header width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team_header width=169>Team
</TD><TD id=bets_header width=56># Bets
</TD><TD id=spreadpct_header width=50>Spread
</TD><TD id=mlpct_header width=50>ML
</TD><TD id=oupct_header width=50>OU
</TD><TD width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh18 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,18); width=75>Olympic
</TD><TD width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh2 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,2); width=75>Pinnacle
</TD><TD width=75>5Dimes
</TD><TD class=linebox_header id=sbh6 ondblclick=HighlightColumn(this,6); width=75>5Dimes
</TD></TR><TR id=e154435 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e154435', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
7:05P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>701 Boston Celtics
702 Orlando Magic
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>20621
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>64%
36%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>83%
17%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>56%
44%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>193 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>191.5 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5o-108
-5-105
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>191.5 -105
-4.5-107
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>192.5 -110
-5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>191.5 -110
-5-110
</TD></TR><TR id=e154438 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e154438', event)"><TD id=score width=62>1/22
9:35P
</TD><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=team width=169>703 Washington Wizards
704 Los Angeles Lakers
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>9401
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>51%
49%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>28%
72%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>68%
32%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207.5 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>208.5 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -105
-15.5-103
</TD><TD class=open id=sb2_0 width=75>208o-109
-14-105
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>207 -110
-15.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>208 -110

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

once again should be a 14 at the bottom right box. I am not seeing a play for the early game

 

[MetsFan44]

Looks like no plays for the day at all...

 

[MetsFan44]

As of right now, looks like Memphis and Minnesota are going to be plays for tonight

 

[kingking]

nice, thanks. can we get a conformation of that :toast:

 

[cowpokes]

nice, thanks. can we get a conformation of that :toast:

We wait about 30 minutes before game time to post, because of the numbers.

 

[cowpokes]

No plays for the 6:05 games.

Twolves and grizzlies still looking like plays. We will post those in about 20 minutes

 

[MetsFan44]

No Plays for 6:35 games--Memphis DID NOT qualify

 

[cowpokes]

Thanks ankles, im going to be busy for awhile not sure if i can post