Relief Bill For Hurricane Harvey Will Be intersting

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yep seen this dumbass, sophomoric theory and, statistically, that 25 "500 year" events is actually very light. hard to look forward when you're blind (and either incredibly stupid or just stuck to an agenda)

(btw in finance the average time between "100 year events" is 2.5 years....of course mental midgets take this literally to mean chaos only ever happens every 100 years but they are talking about one single item out of millions that happens once in 100 years. just like the 500 year storm theory applies to each individual town/city in america and when you add them up 25 in 7.5 years is statistically tiny)

here is the statistical response that you can find in many places...

In a one-year window we have a mean of <nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Main]1[FONT=MathJax_Main]500</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mfrac><mn>1</mn><mn>500</mn></mfrac></math>[/FONT] 500-year storms occurring. In a 15-month (<nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Main]5[FONT=MathJax_Main]4[/FONT]</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mfrac><mn>5</mn><mn>4</mn></mfrac></math>[/FONT] year) window we would thus expect a mean of <nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Main]1[FONT=MathJax_Main]500[FONT=MathJax_Main]×[FONT=MathJax_Main]5[FONT=MathJax_Main]4[FONT=MathJax_Main]=[/FONT][FONT=MathJax_Main]1[FONT=MathJax_Main]400[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mfrac><mn>1</mn><mn>500</mn></mfrac><mo>×</mo><mfrac><mn>5</mn><mn>4</mn></mfrac><mo>=</mo><mfrac><mn>1</mn><mn>400</mn></mfrac></math>[/FONT] storms.[/FONT]
Now assuming the independence of storms, we will model them by the Poisson distribution. This distribution has one parameter, the mean, which is <nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]λ[FONT=MathJax_Main]=[FONT=MathJax_Main]1[FONT=MathJax_Main]400[/FONT][/FONT]</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mi>λ</mi><mo>=</mo><mfrac><mn>1</mn><mn>400</mn></mfrac></math>[/FONT] here. Given a window and a mean, the probability that k events occur in the window is[/FONT]
<nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]λ[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]k[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]e[FONT=MathJax_Main]−[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]λ[FONT=MathJax_Math-italic]k[FONT=MathJax_Main]![/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block"><mfrac><mrow><msup><mi>λ</mi><mi>k</mi></msup><msup><mi>e</mi><mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"><mo>−</mo><mi>λ</mi></mrow></msup></mrow><mrow><mi>k</mi><mo>!</mo></mrow></mfrac></math>[/FONT][/FONT]​
Substituting the values in, we get a probability of <nobr aria-hidden="true" style="transition: none; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; vertical-align: 0px; line-height: normal;">[FONT=MathJax_Main]3.775[FONT=MathJax_Main]×[FONT=MathJax_Main]10[FONT=MathJax_Main]−[FONT=MathJax_Main]26[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]</nobr><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mn>3.775</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn>10</mn><mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"><mo>−</mo><mn>26</mn></mrow></msup></math>[/FONT] that eight 500-year storms happen in 15 months.


...so there fella if statistically you can expect eight 500-year storms every 15 months in the USA then the timeframe you're working with (7.5 years) would have seem about 48 of these "500 year storms", not just the 25 that have been noted.

so now that we've dispelled your new storm (no longer hurricanes, i see....lol) notion maybe we can go for forest fires or droughts, how about snowfalls or hail events? please, entertain me

Since you know it all ......when will the next 500 year storm hit the Houston area.....I want to mark my calendar? By the way I didn't miss even one math question on my college entrance test and had a full ride academic scholarship....probably not many on the site will be able to say the same thing. How does that song go by Shania Twain....Okay, so you're a rocket scientist...that don't impress me much.
 

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I dont disagree with your general sentiment. However, its a very complex issue. I mean lets take Kentucky. They take a lot of federal money but some of that money is for Military personal and bases ect. That isnt necessarily a bad thing. But a lot of these states also take way more money in the form of food stamps and shit. I can see how someone feeling their state shouldn't have to help support that isn't right. Personally I don't have a big problem with it but I get it. My whole point is i'd rather my tax money go to rebuild after a hurricane then to a random state that just takes tons of gov money every year.

I think we essentially agree. Yours was an either or. If I had my preference I would probably not want either but if I had to chose one I would go with rebuild.

How much states get is complex which is why I referenced some "baseline". I would also agree with spending on infrastructure is not wasted money. It also has a trickle down effect of creating jobs besides just the roads. Those jobs result in revenue to other businesses so the overall cost starts to effectively come down. I am one who is more than willing to have less if it means taking care of those who can not help themselves. I cant over state this fact....many people dont share that same belief. I do think it is a good insight into their moral compass.

On the other hand I dont want to have less because someone is lazy or makes poor decisions and have self inflicted wounds. In the case of living in flood zone or smoking cigarettes and then asking me to pay more for my health insurance. Or I lost all my money gambling and now I am getting food stamps to feed the family. People need to be responsible for their actions.
 

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Looks like the number of hurricanes is increasing....couldnt possibly any logical reason for it.
 

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Looks like the number of hurricanes is increasing....couldnt possibly any logical reason for it.

Increasing from when? all time low years?

global_running_ace.jpg


what do you have against simple math?

or am I misunderstanding what you mean when you say "increasing"?


where do they come up with this shit? this is what makes it so difficult to have a conversation
 

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hey you TEXAS / Harvey guys the class action lawsuit vs the government regarding the Addicks and Barker reservoir IS A GO ! .. get ya ducks in a row ..

sorry for the delay guys but its a GO.. PM me of you want the firms contact info and how to get in on this .. squeaky wheel gets the grease
 

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Increasing from when? all time low years?

global_running_ace.jpg


what do you have against simple math?

or am I misunderstanding what you mean when you say "increasing"?


where do they come up with this shit? this is what makes it so difficult to have a conversation

There are three active hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic.....first time in seven years.....must be difficult to understand.
 

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hey you TEXAS / Harvey guys the class action lawsuit vs the government regarding the Addicks and Barker reservoir IS A GO ! .. get ya ducks in a row ..

sorry for the delay guys but its a GO.. PM me of you want the firms contact info and how to get in on this .. squeaky wheel gets the grease
 

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Increasing from when? all time low years?

global_running_ace.jpg


what do you have against simple math?

or am I misunderstanding what you mean when you say "increasing"?


where do they come up with this shit? this is what makes it so difficult to have a conversation

There are currently 3 active hurricanes in the Atlantic....this has not happened in 7 years.

Since 1851 there have not been two category 4 or higher hurricanes that have hit the USA.

I guess I am making things up or the view with your head in the sand doesn't allow you to see what is going on.
 

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Harvey dumped a record 24 trillion tons of water and Irma has the 7th highest measured wind speeds.....but hey....they really dont sound like they are any stronger.
 

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There are three active hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic.....first time in seven years.....must be difficult to understand.

sure, some short term activity trumps years of activity, whatever

only in the eyes of lefties, who spin whatever they need to spin to fit their agenda
 

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This is the first time on record that the Atlantic has had two hurricanes with 150-plus mph winds at the same time.
 

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sure, some short term activity trumps years of activity, whatever

only in the eyes of lefties, who spin whatever they need to spin to fit their agenda

Who has the most to lose if climate change is happening......... oil and military........they also happen to be two of the bigger beasts out there? Protecting oil interests are the main reasons for wars.....which feeds all of those making money selling weapons. Oil in itself is another huge animal that would hate to see their demand die. The amount some scientist makes studying climate change compared to these two industries are not even close. It would be like a new online seller going to compete with Amazon......not even close.

So the real spin for them to keep feeding the animal .....just cast a doubt. See tobacco industry .... making millions selling products that cause cancer but never admitting to the fact that their product was harmful because they were making millions.
 

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When the bill for Superstorm Sandy was seeking $50 billion 20 of 21 Texans voted against it. Other republicans wanted cuts in other places to pay for it.

My questions is how do you think this will play out?

will politics come into play? Will fiscal conservatives request the funds come from somewhere else? Will it be more of a party line with democrats not wanting to do something Because Trump is in charge?

for all of those that don't believe in climate change.....is it just a coincident that the magnitude of storms continue to get larger? Should the rest of Americans continue to pay for those living in higher risk area or should it be the state's responsibility?

I am sure the responses will be across the board on this one

It was loaded up with pork, which is why it was opposed
 

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