Relatively New but this card sure looks awefully easeee

[bornluuz'r]

I've been fine tuning my method of picking all year (I don't say "capping" cause I believe there's a whole bunch more to capping that what I do). Anyhow, the past several weeks the method has turned up only around 7 or 8 picks per weekend with my lines compared to the actual lines relatively close although, last weekend did turn up 13. And, the picks I've been going with each weekend have come out fairly decent (61% or better each weekend). Now for this weekends card, I've come up with 18 different games (no way I plan playing them all) that standout even further than prior weekend's games (my lines and the actual lines are further apart; this just seems like a bunch as compared to lately.

This is either a gift from the gambling gods or a weekend of traps...

Anybody else experiencing this same phenomenon for this week's card????

Any input appreciated.

For the record, my standouts are as follows (8-5 last weekend):

VA Tech -4
Hawai'i +21.5
Penn State +6 (I know they played horrible last week but I still have them winning outright)
Iowa -11.5
West Virginia -15
Auburn -17.5
Army -3
Kansas -4.5
Texas Tech +3.5
Kentucky +3.5
Air Force +2
Texas -14.5
Ohio +2
Tulane +10.5
N. Illinois -20.5
UTEP -15.5
Tex A&M -22
Utah -17

Possible Moneylines (3-1 last weekend)...

Penn State ML
Texas Tech ML
Kentucky ML
Air Force ML
Ohio ML

 

[NYReb]

That sure is a long list of 'easy' games.

Best of luck, and welcome to the site.

 

[shortbus]

and so enters the newbie. Boy, this looks easy. Heck, I can pick all these winners. A year from now he'll spend five hours a day posting on the net, reading messages, analyzing stats, theorizing gameplans, scouring injury reports, and monitoring trends and line movements...
ALL JUST TO STAY EVEN!:breakit:

 

[danielousooner]

i've been doing this for about 5 years. yes shortbus, i went through that faze like i'm sure most of us have. the problem with most people is that they play too many games and chase loses. this isn't rocket science, no need to study for hours to get a couple picks.

 

[shortbus]

just giving the guy a hard time. Hell, I throw darts...

If one of them doesn't hit my wife, I'm going to have a good weekend :aktion033

 

[PITBULL]

nice long list of winner'z

 

[trytrytry]

born

how far off is the point spread in your estimation in each of those games?

if you find a 2 point value are you playing the game?

3 point value?

6 point value?

what is your threshold for a selection.

all these games are not off 6 points for example.

 

[Wheaton]

Ohio State has played two good teams this year. In those 2 games they have a total of zero offensive touchdowns (against first team defenses).

Another thing to note, Penn State has played 4 of the top 5 teams in the Big 10 to start the confernece season. And they've been in all 4 games.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

yeah,

was there at one time too...we all learned at some point that things are never easy...this forum will help you learn it quicker though

 

[bornluuz'r]

Ya know guys, I didn't expect to get blasted in this forum of all the ones I've been watching. Thought there was a little more class here - guess not... :neenee:

NY Reb: Yeah, it is a long list and the list is, as stated above, "STANDOUTS". I never said I was betting them all; in fact, as I stated, my "STANDOUTS" went 8-5 last week but I didn't bet them all. I did bet 11 different games that I took with the aid of several of you and I went 2-7.

shortbus: That would be "newbie" to this site and you sure know just how to make somebody feel warm, cozy, and welcome. :neenee: I never just woke up one morning and threw together a method off the top of my head to come up with the standouts or the picks that I go with; in fact, I've never really started trusting my own work and have been tailing some of you guys (btw, CKR from over there and yes, you NY Reb, even though you're an ass to me, and a couple of others have made me $$$$ this year). I've worked on this method for around 2 1/2 years now, without the help of any of you or anybody else.

danielsooner: yes, I've gone thru that and have backed off to trying to play no more than 6 or 7 games on Saturday, but did play 9 last week.

trytrytry: Yes, actually, all these games per my method are at least 7 points off the line. I don't select a pick for the standout list unless they are at least 7 points off.

wheaton: Thanks for the input on the games.

pags: Thanks for the input.

 

[bornluuz'r]

Just to put some of your slams to rest, the following is a list of my "caps" for the weekend. My overall initial list has won 61% or better each of the last 3 weekends (actually 61.5% last weekend, 71% the weekend before that, and 73% the weekend before that!!) and above 50% for several weekends prior to that. For those of you who seem to think that just because this was my 2nd or 3rd post on this site that I just fell out of the sky and don't know what a football looks like, I'd be interested in comparing your initial caps to mine BEFORE and AFTER Saturday!!

Teams, Current Line, My Line, Difference

VIRGINIA TECH 4 / 12 / 8
GEORGIA TECH

HAWAII
BOISE STATE 21.5 / 13.5 / -8

MIAMI FLORIDA 21 / 26 / 5
NORTH CAROLINA

PURDUE 10 / 15.5 / 5.5
NORTHWESTERN

MICHIGAN STATE
MICHIGAN 11.5 / 8.5 / -3

PENN STATE 2 / 7
OHIO STATE 5

IOWA 11 / 23.5 / 12.5
ILLINOIS

MINNESOTA U 17.5 / 21.5 / 4
INDIANA

WEST VIRGINIA 14.5 / 24.5 / 10
RUTGERS

DUKE
WAKE FOREST 17.5 / 17 / -0.5

NC STATE 2.5 / 5 / 2.5
CLEMSON

MISSOURI 3 / 9 / 6
NEBRASKA

AUBURN 17.5 / 25.5 / 8
MISSISSIPPI

WESTERN MICHIGAN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 7 / 7.5 / 0.5

CONNECTICUT 1 / 4
SYRACUSE 3

OKLAHOMA 13 / 14.5 / 1.5
OKLAHOMA STATE

ARMY 3 / 10.5 / 7.5
EAST CAROLINA

KANSAS 4.5 / 13.5 / 9
IOWA STATE

TEXAS TECH 6.5 / 10
KANSAS STATE 3.5

KENTUCKY 4 / 7.5
MISSISSIPPI ST 3.5

AIR FORCE 6 / 8.5
WYOMING 2.5

NEW MEXICO 3.5 / 6.5
COLORADO STATE 3

TCU
CINCINNATI U 5.5 / 8 / 2.5

TEXAS 14 / 22 / 8
COLORADO

FLORIDA STATE 10.5 / 12.5 / 2
MARYLAND

FLORIDA
GEORGIA 7.5 / 9 / 1.5

ARIZONA STATE
CALIFORNIA 14.5 / 13 / -1.5

WASHINGTON U
OREGON 20 / 17 / -3

STANFORD
UCLA 5 / 2 / -3

OHIO 9 / 11
KENT 2

CENTRAL FLORIDA
MARSHALL 26 / 27.2 / 1.2

TULANE
HOUSTON U 10.5 / 1.5 / -9

NO ILLINOIS 20.5 / 28 / 7.5
BALL STATE

UTEP 15.5 / 29 / 13.5
SAN JOSE STATE

EASTERN MICHIGAN
BOWLING GREEN 32 / 35.5 / 3.5

OREGON STATE 7 / 12 / 5
ARIZONA U

USC 24 / 28.5 / 4.5
WASHINGTON STATE

TENNESSEE U 2 / 4 / 2
SOUTH CAROLINA

RICE 1 / 3 / 2
TULSA

TEXAS A&M 22 / 31 / 9
BAYLOR

VANDERBILT
LSU 24 / 24.5 / 0.5

SMU
FRESNO STATE 27.5/23/4.5

UTAH 17 / 27 / 10
SAN DIEGO STATE

 

[bornluuz'r]

A couple things on my 2nd post above...

I was 2-7 playing 9 picks not 11 (typo).

And NY Reb, sorry I blasted you. After reading a couple of the other posts, I took offense to the whole thread. Thanks for the help you've unknowingly given me in the past!! k:


Wheaton: Penn States defense did rock last week. If they would've had an offense to move the ball, I'd of had a shot of winning; if I'd have stuck with my own "standout", I'd have won anyway. :awesom:

I still say they have a chance of winning straight up. My system has lost just one ML calling s/u dog wins in the past three weeks (9-1). I have seven of those on the board for this weekend - which is one of the main reasons for this thread in the beginning...

 

[shortbus]

calm down buddy, I was just busting your balls...

 

[bornluuz'r]

10-4...

I'm calm now; my kid got me up at 4:30 a.m. to watch Scooby Doo 2. Got to work at 6 and read your crap and responded right away without giving any thought at all to it. So :finger: , I'm over it and back to the shortbus with u!!

Sorta funny, I actually work for a school system.... "shortbus"

 

[one-eye]

Born, I am with you on this weeks slate. It does seem easy and I like alot games as well. I participate in a couple of pools that by the rules of the pools force me to pick alot of games each week( some my choice and some of the games are picked for me and I have to pick a winner). That being said, each week when the lines come out I circle anywhere from 5 to 15 games that I have a strong lean. It has worked out that weeks I like alot of games I have won money that week and the week that "looks tuff" are tuff and I lose money. The one thing that you have to be careful about reading the forum is not to get caught up in the feeding frenzy each week on particular games. Just listen to yourself and absorb the info that is provided to you. Nothing pisses me off when I get sucked into a game because everybody here gets excited about one game. You feel like you dont want to miss the boat. It is hard to do, trust me I have been reading the posts in here for about four years. Penn State is a prime example of the feeding frenzy I am talking about last week. You hear it is "Docs" play of the year and the next think you are doing is betting on a game you would have normally ignored. But, this also example where you have to absorb all of the info. Somebody pointed out that Doc had moved to different service and their pick of the year was Minnesota, which was obviously worthy of pick of the year status. Dont be afraid to play alot of games, but the one thing I have learned is to play each one for the same amount. Nothing makes you madder than going 8-5 and losing money. I like the games you have posted this week, esp. Utah, Texas A&M, Army, Missouri, Iowa and N. Illinois Thanks for your 2 cents and ignore the negative.

 

[bornluuz'r]

Thanks for the input one-eye. I'm actually learning the hardway just what your saying. There's been about five games over the past 2 weekends where I had one team winning and because of what is being said in the forums, have gone the other way and lost. So, from here on, I'll either bet my way anyway or just make it a no play, depending on WHO is saying what...

 

[bornluuz'r]

Here they are, what I will be playing this weekend...

Best Bets:

Iowa -11.5
Ohio +2
UTEP -15.5

Others:

Utah -18.5
Texas Tech +2.5
West Virginia -15
Virginia Tech -6

All for the same money. No more 2 or 3 unit bets for me - except for Ace's Sunday picks!
Good Luck Everybody! Yes, including you, shortbus!! :toast:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

born,

love the "location" your from, lol...just noticed that. GL