Regression towards the mean.

[BigLouReturns]

From Wikipedia - "In statistics, regression toward the mean (also called reversion to the mean, and reversion to mediocrity) is the phenomenon where if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling of the same random variable is likely to be closer to its mean."

I am by no means a statistician but I have been following the regression towards the mean theory when it comes to turnovers in the NFL for quite some time. Does anyone else use this in their handicapping?

 

[BigLouReturns]

Anybody?

 

[doctorsuccess]

Yes, definitely. Team records from year to year, fumbles vs. fumbles lost, individual player performances, going against leaders in the Westgate and Circa contests after six or seven weeks, going against undefeated teams after five or six weeks, etc.

 

[doctorsuccess]

Guess we're the only ones.