regression to the mean thread

[schmeinz]

junkman p.do.d. is 11-3 past 14 picks. 78%

im gonna fade him until that 11-3 record comes to 65% or less

starting today, all plays are for 150 on the dog or to win 150 on the favorite.

st louis cardinals +120 150 to win 180

this is not bc i hate junkman or want him to go broke.just that all good things come to an end.

loved serious addictions views on this so im gonna give it a shot and track it.

 

[seriousaddiction]

I'll be watching and playing as well

 

[seriousaddiction]

that stiff Lang went 6-0 yesterday...I know its one day but ive never in my life seen this crumb have 2 good days in a row

 

[schmeinz]

lol ur on florida today tho man

 

[seriousaddiction]

im fading lang...wont be fading junk

 

[seriousaddiction]

unless that stiff lang plays on stl...I'll buy off my play if that happens

 

[schmeinz]

either way we should se how it works over a few months

 

[seriousaddiction]

ya def ...cant hurt to at least keep a record

 

[thatoneguy]

how do you know that now is the right time to start fading him though? just pick a spot and go until you're in the plus money?

 

[entertained]

Junk is a great capper....there are more plays than his POD, this will fail, have fun fading just the one play of his

 

[schmeinz]

Junk is a great capper....there are more plays than his POD, this will fail, have fun fading just the one play of his

im not saying he isnt.

his p.o.d. is 58% for the year and he is up about 17 units on it alone which is very good.

but right now he is 78% the last two weeks as a p.o.d noone can keep that up just fact.

so the law of averages sais if i fade him over the next few weeks i am guaranteed $

ty please dont talk in my thread

 

[entertained]

I'll talk in any thread I feel like talking in and if you don't like it, try the tracking forum:howdy:

 

[I_Need_Money]

You should title this thread.....regression to the schmein.

 

[schmeinz]

junkman 11-4 73%

schmeinz 1-0 +180

 

[schmeinz]

how do you know that now is the right time to start fading him though? just pick a spot and go until you're in the plus money?

idk ive gambling for 6 years now hardcore. ive seen alot of shit and take every loss as a lesson learned and ik im not the best but for the last 2-3 years im up alot of $. being around gambling you will learn that 60% is sick actually i consider that to be a sharp and junkmans play of the day is 58% for the 140 days. thats a very big sample. and he is very very very good at what he is doing. but ask him and he will tell you 78% over 14 picks is insane. and everything evens out. hes a 58% capper which in my guess is top 5 percentile for gamblers from what ive seen. so thats a 20% margin of difference. i spot him 7% due to a smaller sample and i figure hes gonna lose a few soon that will make me some $. i made my 180 without thinking and im done fading him and im onto the next fade. this is all about the law of averages. i mean he could go 50% over the next 14 picks and with the juice in baseball we could both lose $. buttttt i got my 180 and im done fading him and ill wait till the next player to fade.

again best of luck to junkman his contributions to the multiple forums he posts on are appreciated very much. we should all be here to help

 

[thatoneguy]

i suppose, if it gets much higher than 78%, it wont be for long. curious though, why lay off now? 73% is still just short of impossible to sustain.

also, what of jpr's "public is all over these" threads? he's about to crack 70% over a 55 game sample. he's not really doing the picking there...

either way, i love what you're doing and look forward to helping if need be