I look at so many threads started about what book should I use and who is the best and why? I know everyone always disagrees and has their opinion as to why they use who they use, but I would like to have a little discussion and education especially for the uninformed.
Reduced Juice is a must
First off, let us state how important reduced betting is:
-Any person that understands the basics of money management uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player that makes a living at sports betting uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player planning on making a living at sports betting should use reduced juice betting.
It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice, and simply breakeven. Reduced juice betting drastically effects your win %, bring this number down, -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.
It is tough enough to win so why make it harder and use a -110 book? It just makes no sense to me. How many bettors strive for the 52-55% margin just to come out on top? Well imagine if you hit that same percentage and paid (-102)? How much more profit would you have at the end of the season? I always practice money management as it is crucial to being successful. From units per bet to getting the right line/price. Several times have I made numerous bets and received (+100) or better and even though some wagers won and others lost, I was able to maximize my profits and minimize my losses, which I believe to be key. There are several reduced juice books available that you do not need to stick with your (-110) books. In fact it would be great if those regular juice books would dissappear, but some may have loyal customers. As for myself, I am in this to make a profit and the more of an edge I have to maximize my profits the better. For any who are looking for some reduced juice books, I would highly recommend:
1) Pinnacle
2) Matchbook
3) Mansion
Pinnacle is on most peoples list, but the odd thing is that many people who use Pinnacle will have a book like CRIS or Olympic on their list. I have been educated myself on Mansion & Matchbook's exchanges and I couldn't be more pleased than what I have experienced. Both offer great lines and (-104) or better prices, but the exchange has allowed me to get even better prices as the highest I have paid to date is (-103). Pinnacle does not always have the line that I want, but the price is always there. By adding 2 other reduced juice books into my "arsenal" it has helped drastically as getting the best line with the best price is always a struggle, but it has become a little easier since not relying solely on Pinnacle. Some may take some insight in this thread and others may stick with their books that they have always been with. OK. No problem. I would just like to throw this out there for those who are looking for a different book and are wanting to be educated as to why it is important. Once again, I get no referral money or anything like that, so this benefits me none whatsoever. When I first started sportsbetting I used the (-110) books and very often those would be the best prices, ie BoDog, CRIS to name a few. Not trying to insult those who use those currently, but there are better out there. Hopefully this will help those in their search.
Many people believe professional sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. This is understandable with all the books and movies featuring Vegas high rollers, but it’s just not true. The fact is the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively small.
Let's take a minute to examine the numbers. For clarity sake, we'll focus on bets where the player risks $11 to make $10. (point spread and over/under bets) Against this type of bet, anyone can expect to win 50% of their bets. All you'll need to do is flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9% of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked), consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Based on 11 to 10 odds, you would need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even and cover the "juice" you pay to the sportsbook. Let's take a look to see how the 52.38% is derived:
Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57-58%, and often as low as 55-56%. Most people find that hard to believe, and they get even more skeptical when told that for successful professional sports bettors, a winning percentage of 60% or more is actually too high. This is because a professional sports bettor will bet on any game that they feel they have and edge. The logic being at the end of the day it’s all about how much money you make. An example will help clarify this important point.
If a bettor has 5 bets on a given day, risking $110 to win $100 on each bet, and wins 3 or them, that's a great winning percentage of 60%, and net profit of $80. (The bettor wins $300 and loses $220) If another bettor has 14 bets on that same day, risking $110 to win $100 on each one, and wins eight of them, resulting in lower winning percentage of 57%, but almost twice as much profit, $140. The second bettor wasn't necessarily less skilled at picking winners, they may have just choose to apply all their advantages, (including bets that had an expected winning percent less than 60%). If the goal is make money, there is no doubt which sports bettor is achieving their objective.
Ok, the latter half of this thread is compliments of SportsInsights.com. But I believe this is very informative and having a reduced juice book is just as important as getting that extra 1/2 point. I have had several 1-1 days, but so many times I have had (+100) or better odds that I actually end up a little on the plus side, whereas if I was paying (-110), I would just eat the juice.
I would just like to have a discussion amongst everyone here on this topic. This is my 1st year capping sports and so far it has been profitable. I play 3 sports: football, basketball & baseball. I have learned a lot and I do know that there is plenty to come as well. Hopefully this thread will help others in their decisions if they are contemplating a new book to use. I mean why would you pay (-110) when you could get the same exact line @ (-102)?
Hopefully we can keep this thread intelligent and learn form each others experience's and insight!
:toast:
Reduced Juice is a must
First off, let us state how important reduced betting is:
-Any person that understands the basics of money management uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player that makes a living at sports betting uses reduced juice betting.
-Any player planning on making a living at sports betting should use reduced juice betting.
It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice, and simply breakeven. Reduced juice betting drastically effects your win %, bring this number down, -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.
It is tough enough to win so why make it harder and use a -110 book? It just makes no sense to me. How many bettors strive for the 52-55% margin just to come out on top? Well imagine if you hit that same percentage and paid (-102)? How much more profit would you have at the end of the season? I always practice money management as it is crucial to being successful. From units per bet to getting the right line/price. Several times have I made numerous bets and received (+100) or better and even though some wagers won and others lost, I was able to maximize my profits and minimize my losses, which I believe to be key. There are several reduced juice books available that you do not need to stick with your (-110) books. In fact it would be great if those regular juice books would dissappear, but some may have loyal customers. As for myself, I am in this to make a profit and the more of an edge I have to maximize my profits the better. For any who are looking for some reduced juice books, I would highly recommend:
1) Pinnacle
2) Matchbook
3) Mansion
Pinnacle is on most peoples list, but the odd thing is that many people who use Pinnacle will have a book like CRIS or Olympic on their list. I have been educated myself on Mansion & Matchbook's exchanges and I couldn't be more pleased than what I have experienced. Both offer great lines and (-104) or better prices, but the exchange has allowed me to get even better prices as the highest I have paid to date is (-103). Pinnacle does not always have the line that I want, but the price is always there. By adding 2 other reduced juice books into my "arsenal" it has helped drastically as getting the best line with the best price is always a struggle, but it has become a little easier since not relying solely on Pinnacle. Some may take some insight in this thread and others may stick with their books that they have always been with. OK. No problem. I would just like to throw this out there for those who are looking for a different book and are wanting to be educated as to why it is important. Once again, I get no referral money or anything like that, so this benefits me none whatsoever. When I first started sportsbetting I used the (-110) books and very often those would be the best prices, ie BoDog, CRIS to name a few. Not trying to insult those who use those currently, but there are better out there. Hopefully this will help those in their search.
Many people believe professional sports bettors win at least 60% of their bets. This is understandable with all the books and movies featuring Vegas high rollers, but it’s just not true. The fact is the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively small.
Let's take a minute to examine the numbers. For clarity sake, we'll focus on bets where the player risks $11 to make $10. (point spread and over/under bets) Against this type of bet, anyone can expect to win 50% of their bets. All you'll need to do is flip a coin and pick a side. The bookmakers profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a player wins, the bookmaker withholds slightly more than 9% of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked), consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Based on 11 to 10 odds, you would need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even and cover the "juice" you pay to the sportsbook. Let's take a look to see how the 52.38% is derived:
Required Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)
Example: A line of -110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100, so…
Required win % = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110 / 210 = 52.38
Example: A line of -110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100, so…
Required win % = 110 / (110 + 100) = 110 / 210 = 52.38
If a bettor has 5 bets on a given day, risking $110 to win $100 on each bet, and wins 3 or them, that's a great winning percentage of 60%, and net profit of $80. (The bettor wins $300 and loses $220) If another bettor has 14 bets on that same day, risking $110 to win $100 on each one, and wins eight of them, resulting in lower winning percentage of 57%, but almost twice as much profit, $140. The second bettor wasn't necessarily less skilled at picking winners, they may have just choose to apply all their advantages, (including bets that had an expected winning percent less than 60%). If the goal is make money, there is no doubt which sports bettor is achieving their objective.
Ok, the latter half of this thread is compliments of SportsInsights.com. But I believe this is very informative and having a reduced juice book is just as important as getting that extra 1/2 point. I have had several 1-1 days, but so many times I have had (+100) or better odds that I actually end up a little on the plus side, whereas if I was paying (-110), I would just eat the juice.
I would just like to have a discussion amongst everyone here on this topic. This is my 1st year capping sports and so far it has been profitable. I play 3 sports: football, basketball & baseball. I have learned a lot and I do know that there is plenty to come as well. Hopefully this thread will help others in their decisions if they are contemplating a new book to use. I mean why would you pay (-110) when you could get the same exact line @ (-102)?
Hopefully we can keep this thread intelligent and learn form each others experience's and insight!
:toast: