Denny Hamlin at Atlanta has been a mixed bag. He has won there; overall he has 1 win, 2 Top 5's 5 Top 10's and 9 Top 20's in 14 races. From an intermediate track standpoint, Hamlin does not rate well. Matt Kenseth on the other hand races intermediate tracks very well. Matt has never won in Atlanta, but in 25 races he has 8 Top 5's, 14 Top 10's and 21 Top 20's. Matt qualified 5th, Hamlin 17th. In the final practice Matt had the fastest car, Hamlin 3rd. Enter The Chase scenario......Matt controls his own destiny....if he finishes 7th or better he is in. Hamlin is already in The Chase and still fuming from Harvick running him off the track. If he gets beside Harvick, no telling what might happen today. Kenseth, Biffle, Bowyer, and Newman have the final 4 slots right now. Any new winners in the next two races are automatically in. Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, and Tony Stewart are on the outside looking in.....they must win one of the next two races more than likely. Tony has won Atlanta 3 times, Kasey twice. These are the 7 drivers you will see tonight racing hard. This is also why I played Tony small to Win.
Between the drama on Tony coming back, the Harvick/Hamlin feud, and the importance of the last 2 races with 7 drivers fighting for their lives for the last 4 spots.......you are not going to want to miss Atlanta.
So my play which I got at +105 and went to lunch and returned to see it at +130 is Matt Kenseth over Denny Hamlin. He obviously has a fast car and hasn't had one in awhile, races intermediate tracks better than Hamlin, and has better overall numbers at Atlanta, with so much more on the line. He will want to finish in the Top 7, and that is something that Hamlin has done only 3 times in 14 tries.
5 Unit Play
Between the drama on Tony coming back, the Harvick/Hamlin feud, and the importance of the last 2 races with 7 drivers fighting for their lives for the last 4 spots.......you are not going to want to miss Atlanta.
So my play which I got at +105 and went to lunch and returned to see it at +130 is Matt Kenseth over Denny Hamlin. He obviously has a fast car and hasn't had one in awhile, races intermediate tracks better than Hamlin, and has better overall numbers at Atlanta, with so much more on the line. He will want to finish in the Top 7, and that is something that Hamlin has done only 3 times in 14 tries.
5 Unit Play
Here is a very nice Chart. Good Luck.... there are more angles out there in Match Ups for Drivers.....find one let me know. Kenseth Newman Bowyer and Biffle are in if they race well and no new winners take place in the last 2. Kahne and Larson are the last two on the outside looking in.
Stewart plain and simple has to win one of the last two. If you win, you are in.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/chase-clinching-scenarios-atlanta-133000748--nascar.html
