North Florida +8 for 3 units
What a trap. Renovations cause the #2 seed to play on the road. Florida has lost 5 of last 7, they are 3-9 ats in last 12, they are seriously considering leaving Egbunu at Home who needs surgery. This is like Bama playing at Troy or South Alabama. North Florida can flat out shoot and was one of those #1 seeds who choked their chicken. This game can make their season. Florida wishes their season was over.
What a trap. Renovations cause the #2 seed to play on the road. Florida has lost 5 of last 7, they are 3-9 ats in last 12, they are seriously considering leaving Egbunu at Home who needs surgery. This is like Bama playing at Troy or South Alabama. North Florida can flat out shoot and was one of those #1 seeds who choked their chicken. This game can make their season. Florida wishes their season was over.
I was leaning UNF too but the more I look at it the more I feel like it's a trap for UNF, not Florida. Line went from -8 to -8.5 with 40% action on Florida (RLM). Florida is 10-3 against opponents ranked 50-100. UNF is ranked #189. UNF 0-5 against top 100 teams (Florida ranked #44). Egbunu out so I'm sure even more action on UNF. Game is played "at UNF" but Jacksonville is only 71 miles from Gainesville so I think the Gators will still outnumber UNF.
North Florida's basketball gym, UNF Arena, has a capacity of 6300. Enrollment at the school is a little over 16,000.
This is the biggest basketball game in the school's history, by far.
You really think the Gator faithful will "outnumber" the home team's supporters? Not a chance.
I'm betting this game was SOLD OUT in a matter of hours once the match-up was announced, and the majority of the buyers are Osprey supporters.
North Florida is going to be up for this game against one of the big boy teams from its state. I'm not sure how motivated the Gators will be to play this game
on the road in the NIT. Also, the Ospreys can flat out shoot the ball from deep, while the Gators putting the ball through the hoop is sometimes like pulling
teeth.
I'm going to have to ride with Red on this game. I think North Florida will play a historic game. Will they win SU? While the +300 ML is tempting, I'm not going that far.
Instead, getting the +8.5 currently is the way to go. Personally, I'm waiting for more value. It could easily go to +9 to +10. Joe Public thinks the Gators will steamroll the Ospreys.
I don't!
!/
Nice analyses "INCU".........We both know that motivation is a "finicky" thing especially when it involves ego-driven 19 & 20 year-old kids. Coaches spend many hours trying to figure out how to get the lead out of their pampered asses...........It isn't easy. This will be a tough game for the Gators.
Interesting side-note. These two teams have only played ONCE.
They played on Friday, 8 November 2013 at Gainesville (Stephen O'Connell Center) in the Global Sports Challenge.
Florida was a -23.5 point favorite over North Florida for that game.
The Ospreys battled the Gators hard to the bitter end and only lost by 8 at the Gators house!
In 2013, the Ospreys sucked badly (probably in the mid 200s in equivalent KENPOM).
The Gators were in the number 8 in the 2013 preseason polls.
I'm starting to like North Florida +8.5 to +9 even better now. @)
They played on Friday, 8 November 2013 at Gainesville (Stephen O'Connell Center) in the Global Sports Challenge.
Florida was a -23.5 point favorite over North Florida for that game.
The Ospreys battled the Gators hard to the bitter end and only lost by 8 at the Gators house!
In 2013, the Ospreys sucked badly (probably in the mid 200s in equivalent KENPOM).
The Gators were in the number 8 in the 2013 preseason polls.
I'm starting to like North Florida +8.5 to +9 even better now. @)
Pregame shoot around from Florida Gators.com
http://floridagators.com/news/2016/3/14/chris-harry-pregame-shootaround-nit-florida-at-north-florida-tuesday-9-pm.aspx
LMAO at this comment:
WATCH FOR IT
An incredibly rowdy (if not hostile) environment. Worth noting: They serve beer at UNF home games. What more needs to be said?
http://floridagators.com/news/2016/3/14/chris-harry-pregame-shootaround-nit-florida-at-north-florida-tuesday-9-pm.aspx
LMAO at this comment:
WATCH FOR IT
An incredibly rowdy (if not hostile) environment. Worth noting: They serve beer at UNF home games. What more needs to be said?
When a team like North Florida gets a Florida, Miami, or Florida St in their gym, which by the way is NEVER, it can be nothing but OPPORTUNITY, not a trap. Can they get beat and not cover the spread? Hell yeah....but regardless this is Opportunity. Not sure if anyone looked but this was the #3 Scoring Offense in the Country this Season, in their own Gym, comfortable with their own Rims, and the Clapping and apparently Drinking Fans. You just gotta play it fellas. I see your point and don't like seeing 72% on UNF, but I'm already in and would still play it anyways. GO UNF!
Thanks for the feedback Red. It will be a no play for me but I did read that 48% of UNFs points come from 3s and Florida was the worst 3 point defending team in the SEC this season. So I think it will really come down to whether those 3s fall for UNF and since they're playing at home there's a really good shot they will.
BOL!
