RedElephants Friday

[RedElephants]

Putting notes here, not sure on a play yet, we'll let the notes decide.

Glaring Statistic.....BYU is ranked 60th is Total Defense, 5th in Rushing Defense and 117th in Passing Defense. Do you know how many Top 50 Offenses BYU has faced? ZERO....117th in Passing Offense and the best Passing Offense they have faced is Nevada at 59th, and they gave up 42 points. Boise is 22nd in Total Offense and 25th in Passing Offense and they've done those numbers facing 2 Top 50 Defenses in the mix.

The numbers say BYU Pass Defense is HORRENDOUS.

 

[indiana]

Red..............your thoughts...Boise or over ?????????...........BOL with your action tonight.........indy

 

[RedElephants]

Boise Defense is 48th Total, 23rd against Rushing and 80th Passing. I'll use 60 as a number since they've played so many just outside of the Top 50 but Boise has achieved this number facing 5 Top 60 Offenses, and Nevada as a gauge used above for BYU is 65th and a common opponent. Boise has only played two Top 50 Passing Offenses in Colorado State and Ole Miss to get an 80th rating in Pass Defense. Nevada obviously pressed the envelope with both teams BYU losing by 7, Boise winning by 5.

Critical Stats here are that Boise has faced many decent Offenses unlike BYU and have maintained a Top 50 status; however their Passing Defense is likely worse than what the numbers indicate at 80, just like BYU's is at 117 since they have only faced 2-3 teams that can really throw the ball well.

 

[Coaster]

Great stuff.

 

[RedElephants]

On the Offensive side, BYU ranks 39th despite playing 6 of 7 Top 50 Defenses, averaging 32 PPG. The Defense gives up 22 PPG despite playing ZERO Top 50 Offenses. Boise on the other hand scores 32 PPG and gives up 26 PPG; they've had a more healthy mix of Top 50 Defenses and Offenses whereas BYU has played really good Defenses and not many good Offenses. Their stats are not accurate for sure...basically proving that their Defense is worse than indicated and their Offense better than indicated.

BYU is averaging a play every 21 seconds on Offense, Boise every 24 seconds. Don't look for that to change. BYU believes they will have to score more than 24 points to win according to articles. Last week against Nevada, BYU snapped the ball for play on average at every 15.8 seconds. Even though Boise still looks strong against the run, the Broncos have allowed runs of 42, 56, 51, 76 and 35 yards in the past three games. On the flip side Christian Stewart should feel much more comfortable with a few games under his belt and he has minimized turnovers, despite not leading the team to victory.

Despite not playing any Top 50 Offenses, BYU games have gone into the 50's when someone even had a pulse on Offense, Nevada, Houston, Virginia, Utah State. 4 of 7 Boise games have gone into the 50's as well, and I think hands down this will be the worst Pass Defense Boise has faced. Both teams are going to play fast and throw the football a lot exposing weaknesses. I'll buy down to 56, a key number and play Over 56 for 2 units.

​

 

[indiana]

Red...........thank you for the input and write ups...........BOL tonight..........with you on the over..............indy

 

[SilentKC]

Nice one yesterday! I cant believe all these years you've been posting and I've only discovered you last year! A lot of people dont realize it but when Bookie Report was still posting needs (i miss the guy) and you were posting writeups, man it was 99% GOLDEN when you were on the same side!!!! Thats why I'm grateful you're back at it! Thanks bud! My ambassador to kwan! Haha! Im going to sign up with BR as soon as i can get away with it from wife! Hehe. Good luck today bro!

 

[GreedisGood]

Are you concern the line drop from 60 to 56 when both team play well over 60 in their last game or two respectively? Curious. On your thought. Good luck either way

 

[RedElephants]

Are you concern the line drop from 60 to 56 when both team play well over 60 in their last game or two respectively? Curious. On your thought. Good luck either way

It qualifies as a play so I play it. BYU's lack of depth on Defense is killing them. They are speeding up the game to limit substitutions and give them a better chance to score. That is not going to change. Should be a fun game and probably a drive one way or the other from a W OR AN L. BYU has seen very few Offenses like Boise and Boise is going to have some big plays passing in my opinion.

 

[GreedisGood]

Good luck Red

 

[turbo350z]

Nice call red. tailed ya !

 

[fonz0438]

Hahaha good job!

 

[turbo350z]

Love a first half winner!!!

 

[RussellPeters]

Another great call.

 

[cordial]

Excellent take on this game R.E...thank you...BOL...

 

[MileenaWins]

Thanks for the winner Red!

 

[JasonBiggz]

Thanks for the analysis, made too much sense, had to bet it!

 

[MileenaWins]

Thanks for the analysis, made too much sense, had to bet it!

Amen!

 

[RedElephants]

It's Rollin' Baby~Winner!

 

[LivintheFamilyLife!]

Great insight & pick, always appreciated!