I agree w/ you 100 %.Beside,this " home game" team will get less pressure because of 1 reason that no body notices: Psychologically, this is a week off for them.In their mind, they are absente'. GLHouston is a better team than Baltimore. This line should be Houston -4 imo, but the bad breaks Houston has had this year changes the line too much.
Take the better team at home with a pk line. One of my biggest plays of the year.