Rate this middle...

[SportSavant]

Would you take it?

Port + 6.5 -110

La - 5.5 -105

 

[mvbski]

NO should never play for just one number wouldnt be bad if you could at least find 1.5 difference with -05 on one side

 

[DannyMay]

Portland + 6 1/2 lay $110 to win $100

La - 5 1/2 lay $107.56 to win 102.44

You are risking $7.56 for every $202.44,

You are getting 26.77777 to 1 odds that LA will win by exactly 6 points.

 

[D2bets]

It's close, but I'd say not. I'd pay 6 points per side for that and that is 7.5 pts per side. If it was -105 both ways I'd say abolsutley.

mvb's statement that you should never play for just one number is nonsense. It all depends on the odds. I play 1/2 point sides if the odds are right. Heck, what if it's free!? If you were offered -6-105 and +6.5+103 you'd take it right? I'd be all over that like white on rice.

What you need to calculate is the payoff odds per number and then decide if those odds are greater than the chance of the event happening.

 

[D2bets]

Good work Danny. That's exactly the anakysis needed. 27-1 not quite good enough to me though '6' is a good #. I'd like to get better than 32-1 but if you're just looking for some cheap action you certainly could do worse.

 

[mvbski]

ok maybe i didnt say it right with those prices and only one number it's not a play,and of course if i could play at prices that you said I would play

 

[mvbski]

at the prices he stated and working with one number would you play ? excuse me for not wording the way you liked

 

[D2bets]

No prob mvb. No, like I said, I wouldn't play that at those prices. If it were -105 and -107 I would though, because it jacks the payout up to about 34-1.

 

[mvbski]

hey no problem all i ment to say was that particular play was not a play I should have spent more time trying to explain why,and give him a example of good play like you did

 

[DannyMay]

I agree with d2bets and mvbski that it isnt worth it. But like what was said, if you just want to throw down $7 for a shot at $200 then go for it.

 

[SoundofSilence]

In the NBA and college hoops, where research has shown there are no "key numbers" you need 3 numbers in a middle, or two numbers and a whole # on each side for it to have value based off of probability. Anything less, and you are really aren't getting any true value probability-wise.

 

[DannyMay]

SS,

The juice has to be considered as well.

 

[mvbski]

sound, you also have to remember most of that research was when your only out was -110 getting reduced vig makes a huge difference

 

[D2bets]

SOS, you're underrating middles. Even with -110's you do not need 2.5 pts separation to make profit in either NBA or college. 2.0 pts is easily profitable and in many cases 1.5 pts is as well. And while there may not be "key numbers", certainly some numbers are better than others. College hoops middles are droppin' like flies today BTW, the oddsmakers were on the ball today.

 

[SoundofSilence]

mvbski:

The reduced vig doesn't change the % of certain margin of victories in hoops though. My example was void of any vig at all.

----


You don't need more than a 1 pt separation to make a profit doing middles either -- if you pick the right ones. I'm speaking from a probability and value standpoint.

Can you direct me to any large sample size studies that show any key numbers in hoops?

 

[acw]

Not the first time I say this, but here at the RX we do not middle. We bet to win!

 

[Ladeda]

What is the point in all these "rate the middles threads" ? I'm not even a "middler" but could post 20 of these types of thread every day, as could just about anyone else here.

Whats the point?

 

[DannyMay]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by acw:
Not the first time I say this, but here at the RX we do not middle. We bet to win!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Perhaps scalping and middling is the best way to "bet to win"

 

[sportsadvisory]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Perhaps scalping and middling is the best way to "bet to win" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Not if you know how to handicap.

 

[DannyMay]

YeaH yeah. I know, you hit 60 %.

Uh huh - I have heard it a million times.