RAS NCAA Footballl - Early Looks Report - Week 4
Current Season Records
RAS Plays: 3-3
Early Looks: 6-4
Halftime Plays: 5-3
Total Units: +1.35
(RAS Plays are graded for 1 UNIT, early looks and halftime plays are graded for 1/2 UNIT)
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I recommend making plays as "early" as possible. 11 of 14 (78.5%) of our plays have seen line moves of 1 point or more so far this season.
Five early looks this week:
West Virginia -7 over Maryland
Last season, the Mountaineers only had 8 returning starters and began the year 1-4 after narrowly losing 22-20 at Miami, Fla as a +25.5 point dog in a Thursday night game. They were a bit unlucky to lose that night and did not lose again the rest of the regular season. During their 7 game win streak, they beat Virginia Tech by 21, won at BC by 7, beat Pitt by 21, and won at Syracuse by 11. This year they return 15 starters, 9 of which are on offense. A three year starting senior QB, 1000+ yard receiver, and 4 of top 6 tacklers on defense are among the returnees. Not only are they the heavy favorite to win the depleted Big East, but anything other than a 2005 BCS bowl game would have to be considered a disappointment for this team.
As I wrote last week, this is easily the youngest Maryland team of the Friedgen era. Only 9 starters return and four all-ACC performers have departed. A big reason why they did not cover vs Temple last week was due to several players seeing the field for the first time ever in the second half. New QB Joel Statham looked better passing in his second game, but again lost a fumble, his third of the season. This team will be taking a huge jump in class from playing the likes of Northern Illinois and Temple at home, to visiting high powered West Virginia on the road. I do not believe they are up for the task. Maryland leading tackler LB D'Qwell Jackson (hyper extended left elbow) and starting CB Ruben Haigler (shoulder sprain) suffered injuries vs Temple. Both will not participate in any contact drills this week but hope to play.
West Virginia has toyed with their first two opponents and I believe they are at least 7 points better than Maryland if the game were played at a neutral site. The home field advantage is good for another 4-5 points. The Mountaineers are also playing with big revenge motivation as they have been outscored 155 to 51 by Maryland in the Friedgen era, including a 41-7 beating in the Gator Bowl last season. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has been heard repeating the phrase "Let's Beat Maryland" throughout the offseason. West Virginia is the superior team, has more experience, and is playing at home with revenge. Give the points.
Kentucky -1.5 over Indiana
The Wildcats did not play all that bad in season opening 28-0 loss at Louisville. They only trailed 7-0 in the 3rd quarter before an interception runback put them in too big of a hole. In Kentucky's defense, Louisville is a very good team and it was the season opener so some sloppy offensive play was to be expected. They have since had two weeks off to prepare for this home opener and I believe they will give a good showing. Kentucky covered six straight games last year after losing to Louisville. During that stretch they beat Indiana 34-17 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers do return 19 starters and are improved, but Kentucky returns 15 of their own and this time the game is in Lexington.
Indiana is coming off a huge emotional win over a top 25 ranked Oregon team, 30-24, on the road. No, the Hoosiers are not for real. Oregon could not have gift wrapped this game any nicer. The Ducks fumbled on their first four possessions, two by punt returners, leading to 20 quick (4 scoring drives, 63 yards) points for Indiana. Indiana had one quality drive the entire game, and it led to a field goal and a 23-0 lead at half-time. Just as Oregon was looking to take control in the second half, Indiana returned a kickoff for a TD giving them new life. Oregon still closed the gap to 30-24, but missed a FG and turned the ball over twice on their final three drives. They ended with a total of 7 turnovers for the game. Indiana was outgained 495-to-198 and somehow managed to win. The Hooisers could experience a letdown heading into this. Top DE Victor Adeyanju left the Oregon game with a dislocated shoulder and is listed as questionable. Kentucky is a slightly better team, coming off an important BYE week, and playing at home. Give the small number.
Cincinnati -1 over Syracuse
The Bearcats could not catch a break last year but this seasons outlook is much brighter with a new head coach, 17 returning starters, and an experienced senior QB. First year head coach Mark Dantonio was formerly defensive of coordinator at Ohio State where he had great success. The ninth largest crowd in history showed up for the home opener vs Miami, Ohio last week and the Bearcats did not disappoint. They dominated the Redhawks, racking up 599 total yards in a 45-26 win. Not much attention is being given to this team right now but they could easily be a C-USA title contender.
Syracuse is at the top of my go against team list right now. The Orange lost their season opener 51-0 at Purdue and proceeded to play poorly at lowly Buffalo last week. A horrible Bulls team (+16 point dog) actually led 10-3 midway through the 2nd quarter, were outplaying the Orange, and had all the momentum. Syracuse's opening field goal was set up by a long kickoff return. Their offense was going nowhere. Fortunately for them, Syracuse blocked two punts back to back, one was returned for a TD, the other to the 1 yard line, giving them a 17-10 lead and taking the life out of Buffalo. Syracuse would later add an interception return for a TD, giving them a very misleading 37 total points. They finished with just 12 first downs and 275 total yards against one of the worst defenses in 1-A last year. The biggest reason for their offensive struggles is two new young QB's who are definitely still a work in progress. True freshman starter Joe Fields finished the game 2-for-6 with 1 interception and sophomore backup Perry Patterson went 7-for-18 for just 63 yards. Syracuse has potential for a strong running game but it is going to be difficult for them to establish it if the QB's can not keep defenses honest. Defensively, the Orange have a rebuilt defensive line, and are trying to replace last years leading tackler LB Rich Scanlon, as well as top cover man Steve Gregory who has moved to offense. Cuse fans have long called for head coach Pasqualoni to be replaced. He has not reached a bowl since 2001 and success this season appears highly unlikely.
Iowa State -2.5 over Northern Illinois
The Cyclones are night and day improved from a year ago. They opened last season squeaking by I-AA foe Northern Iowa 17-10 but dominated them in season opener this year 23-0. They showed a lot of heart last week at Iowa in a game that no one gave them a chance in. You could see them coming together as a team. They lost 17-10 but missed 3 field goals and came just short on extending a drive in Iowa territory late in the game. They surprisingly were able to hold Iowa's running game in check allowing just 85 rushing yards on 1.9 per carry. The return of LB Tyson Smith (injured in first game last year) and the emergence of JC transfer Tim Dobbins (2nd on team in tackles through two games) has been huge for this defense. Offensively, RB Stevie Hicks is a good looking runner and QB Brett Meyer has done everything asked of him so far.
Northern Illinois lost starting senior QB Josh Haldi to a stress fracture early on in season opener vs Maryland. Sophomore Phil Horvath is the starting QB for at least one more week. He played decent off the bench vs Maryland and completed 50% of his passes in his first start vs I-AA opponent Southern Illinois last week. The Huskies won by just a point as SIU failed on a 2-point conversion for the win. NIU completed a 61 yard "double pass" trick play that accounted for one of their only two TD's. Despite -1 turnover, SIU had 5 more first downs and the two teams had almost identical total yardage.
Prior to last season, Iowa State had three winning seasons in a row, a huge accomplishment for head coach Dan McCarney. He has done a great job and has this program headed in the right direction again. Under McCarney the Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in the role of favorite, 14-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Cyclones always get good fan support, even last season they averaged close to capacity. NIU won last years meeting by only 8. The change of venue, NIU QB injury & other losses, and ISU's improvement should result in a Cyclone win this time around.
Arizona State -1.5 over Iowa
The Sun Devils earned a quality road win at Northwestern last week. QB Andrew Walter again completed a somewhat low percentage (52.7%) of his passes but he made them count averaging 15.3 yards per completion. He would have had even better numbers and Arizona State would have won the game even easier if not for three key dropped balls in the first half. I really liked Walter's demeanor in this game. As a senior he may finally have adapated to taking on a leadership role. Arizona State appears to have addressed most of the issues that have plagued them in recent seasons. Sophomore RB Loren Wade has emerged as the solid goto runner they have been lacking. Meanwhile, the Sun Devil defense was very aggressive and did a great job keeping the high powered Northwestern offense in check. This really was a big win as this team almost never plays well on the road.
With just two starters back, the Iowa offense is still finding its way. This will be the first road start for true sophomore QB Drew Tate. He has put up good numbers so far but still has not looked completely comfortable in the pocket in either of his first two starts. The running game was held to 85 yards by Iowa State last week which puts added pressure on the passing game. A rebuilt offensive line is struggling to gel. Iowa's defense is solid and will keep them in most games, but there is no way this team deserves its #12 national ranking. The Hawkeyes open Big 10 play at Michigan following this.
The Sun Devils must be smarting for this opportunity to avenge last years 21-2 loss in Iowa City that sent their season in a downward spiral. Under Koetter, ASU has done best in the role of a home favorite where they are 9-6 ATS (5-2 ATS vs non-conference). They are 7-14 ATS in all other situations. This ASU team is still very hungry. Look for the Sun Devils to build momentum off last week and get a big night game home win here.
*Early look plays are recommened for 1/2 unit.
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Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Current Season Records
RAS Plays: 3-3
Early Looks: 6-4
Halftime Plays: 5-3
Total Units: +1.35
(RAS Plays are graded for 1 UNIT, early looks and halftime plays are graded for 1/2 UNIT)
---------------------------------------------------------------
I recommend making plays as "early" as possible. 11 of 14 (78.5%) of our plays have seen line moves of 1 point or more so far this season.
Five early looks this week:
West Virginia -7 over Maryland
Last season, the Mountaineers only had 8 returning starters and began the year 1-4 after narrowly losing 22-20 at Miami, Fla as a +25.5 point dog in a Thursday night game. They were a bit unlucky to lose that night and did not lose again the rest of the regular season. During their 7 game win streak, they beat Virginia Tech by 21, won at BC by 7, beat Pitt by 21, and won at Syracuse by 11. This year they return 15 starters, 9 of which are on offense. A three year starting senior QB, 1000+ yard receiver, and 4 of top 6 tacklers on defense are among the returnees. Not only are they the heavy favorite to win the depleted Big East, but anything other than a 2005 BCS bowl game would have to be considered a disappointment for this team.
As I wrote last week, this is easily the youngest Maryland team of the Friedgen era. Only 9 starters return and four all-ACC performers have departed. A big reason why they did not cover vs Temple last week was due to several players seeing the field for the first time ever in the second half. New QB Joel Statham looked better passing in his second game, but again lost a fumble, his third of the season. This team will be taking a huge jump in class from playing the likes of Northern Illinois and Temple at home, to visiting high powered West Virginia on the road. I do not believe they are up for the task. Maryland leading tackler LB D'Qwell Jackson (hyper extended left elbow) and starting CB Ruben Haigler (shoulder sprain) suffered injuries vs Temple. Both will not participate in any contact drills this week but hope to play.
West Virginia has toyed with their first two opponents and I believe they are at least 7 points better than Maryland if the game were played at a neutral site. The home field advantage is good for another 4-5 points. The Mountaineers are also playing with big revenge motivation as they have been outscored 155 to 51 by Maryland in the Friedgen era, including a 41-7 beating in the Gator Bowl last season. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has been heard repeating the phrase "Let's Beat Maryland" throughout the offseason. West Virginia is the superior team, has more experience, and is playing at home with revenge. Give the points.
Kentucky -1.5 over Indiana
The Wildcats did not play all that bad in season opening 28-0 loss at Louisville. They only trailed 7-0 in the 3rd quarter before an interception runback put them in too big of a hole. In Kentucky's defense, Louisville is a very good team and it was the season opener so some sloppy offensive play was to be expected. They have since had two weeks off to prepare for this home opener and I believe they will give a good showing. Kentucky covered six straight games last year after losing to Louisville. During that stretch they beat Indiana 34-17 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers do return 19 starters and are improved, but Kentucky returns 15 of their own and this time the game is in Lexington.
Indiana is coming off a huge emotional win over a top 25 ranked Oregon team, 30-24, on the road. No, the Hoosiers are not for real. Oregon could not have gift wrapped this game any nicer. The Ducks fumbled on their first four possessions, two by punt returners, leading to 20 quick (4 scoring drives, 63 yards) points for Indiana. Indiana had one quality drive the entire game, and it led to a field goal and a 23-0 lead at half-time. Just as Oregon was looking to take control in the second half, Indiana returned a kickoff for a TD giving them new life. Oregon still closed the gap to 30-24, but missed a FG and turned the ball over twice on their final three drives. They ended with a total of 7 turnovers for the game. Indiana was outgained 495-to-198 and somehow managed to win. The Hooisers could experience a letdown heading into this. Top DE Victor Adeyanju left the Oregon game with a dislocated shoulder and is listed as questionable. Kentucky is a slightly better team, coming off an important BYE week, and playing at home. Give the small number.
Cincinnati -1 over Syracuse
The Bearcats could not catch a break last year but this seasons outlook is much brighter with a new head coach, 17 returning starters, and an experienced senior QB. First year head coach Mark Dantonio was formerly defensive of coordinator at Ohio State where he had great success. The ninth largest crowd in history showed up for the home opener vs Miami, Ohio last week and the Bearcats did not disappoint. They dominated the Redhawks, racking up 599 total yards in a 45-26 win. Not much attention is being given to this team right now but they could easily be a C-USA title contender.
Syracuse is at the top of my go against team list right now. The Orange lost their season opener 51-0 at Purdue and proceeded to play poorly at lowly Buffalo last week. A horrible Bulls team (+16 point dog) actually led 10-3 midway through the 2nd quarter, were outplaying the Orange, and had all the momentum. Syracuse's opening field goal was set up by a long kickoff return. Their offense was going nowhere. Fortunately for them, Syracuse blocked two punts back to back, one was returned for a TD, the other to the 1 yard line, giving them a 17-10 lead and taking the life out of Buffalo. Syracuse would later add an interception return for a TD, giving them a very misleading 37 total points. They finished with just 12 first downs and 275 total yards against one of the worst defenses in 1-A last year. The biggest reason for their offensive struggles is two new young QB's who are definitely still a work in progress. True freshman starter Joe Fields finished the game 2-for-6 with 1 interception and sophomore backup Perry Patterson went 7-for-18 for just 63 yards. Syracuse has potential for a strong running game but it is going to be difficult for them to establish it if the QB's can not keep defenses honest. Defensively, the Orange have a rebuilt defensive line, and are trying to replace last years leading tackler LB Rich Scanlon, as well as top cover man Steve Gregory who has moved to offense. Cuse fans have long called for head coach Pasqualoni to be replaced. He has not reached a bowl since 2001 and success this season appears highly unlikely.
Iowa State -2.5 over Northern Illinois
The Cyclones are night and day improved from a year ago. They opened last season squeaking by I-AA foe Northern Iowa 17-10 but dominated them in season opener this year 23-0. They showed a lot of heart last week at Iowa in a game that no one gave them a chance in. You could see them coming together as a team. They lost 17-10 but missed 3 field goals and came just short on extending a drive in Iowa territory late in the game. They surprisingly were able to hold Iowa's running game in check allowing just 85 rushing yards on 1.9 per carry. The return of LB Tyson Smith (injured in first game last year) and the emergence of JC transfer Tim Dobbins (2nd on team in tackles through two games) has been huge for this defense. Offensively, RB Stevie Hicks is a good looking runner and QB Brett Meyer has done everything asked of him so far.
Northern Illinois lost starting senior QB Josh Haldi to a stress fracture early on in season opener vs Maryland. Sophomore Phil Horvath is the starting QB for at least one more week. He played decent off the bench vs Maryland and completed 50% of his passes in his first start vs I-AA opponent Southern Illinois last week. The Huskies won by just a point as SIU failed on a 2-point conversion for the win. NIU completed a 61 yard "double pass" trick play that accounted for one of their only two TD's. Despite -1 turnover, SIU had 5 more first downs and the two teams had almost identical total yardage.
Prior to last season, Iowa State had three winning seasons in a row, a huge accomplishment for head coach Dan McCarney. He has done a great job and has this program headed in the right direction again. Under McCarney the Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in the role of favorite, 14-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Cyclones always get good fan support, even last season they averaged close to capacity. NIU won last years meeting by only 8. The change of venue, NIU QB injury & other losses, and ISU's improvement should result in a Cyclone win this time around.
Arizona State -1.5 over Iowa
The Sun Devils earned a quality road win at Northwestern last week. QB Andrew Walter again completed a somewhat low percentage (52.7%) of his passes but he made them count averaging 15.3 yards per completion. He would have had even better numbers and Arizona State would have won the game even easier if not for three key dropped balls in the first half. I really liked Walter's demeanor in this game. As a senior he may finally have adapated to taking on a leadership role. Arizona State appears to have addressed most of the issues that have plagued them in recent seasons. Sophomore RB Loren Wade has emerged as the solid goto runner they have been lacking. Meanwhile, the Sun Devil defense was very aggressive and did a great job keeping the high powered Northwestern offense in check. This really was a big win as this team almost never plays well on the road.
With just two starters back, the Iowa offense is still finding its way. This will be the first road start for true sophomore QB Drew Tate. He has put up good numbers so far but still has not looked completely comfortable in the pocket in either of his first two starts. The running game was held to 85 yards by Iowa State last week which puts added pressure on the passing game. A rebuilt offensive line is struggling to gel. Iowa's defense is solid and will keep them in most games, but there is no way this team deserves its #12 national ranking. The Hawkeyes open Big 10 play at Michigan following this.
The Sun Devils must be smarting for this opportunity to avenge last years 21-2 loss in Iowa City that sent their season in a downward spiral. Under Koetter, ASU has done best in the role of a home favorite where they are 9-6 ATS (5-2 ATS vs non-conference). They are 7-14 ATS in all other situations. This ASU team is still very hungry. Look for the Sun Devils to build momentum off last week and get a big night game home win here.
*Early look plays are recommened for 1/2 unit.
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Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
