RAS NCAA Football - Week 4 - Final Report
Week 4 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
West Virginia -7
Kentucky -1.5
Cincinnati -1
Iowa State -2.5
Arizona State -1.5
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
Iowa State -3
Arizona/Wisconsin (UNDER 41)
Saturday Half-time Plays (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
To be determined
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Two RAS plays for Saturday:
Northern Illinois at Iowa State (-3) - 9:30am Pacific
The Cyclones are night and day improved from a year ago. They opened last season just squeaking by I-AA foe Northern Iowa 17-10 but dominated them in season opener this year 23-0. They showed a lot of heart last week at Iowa in a game that no one gave them a chance in. You could see them improving and coming together as a team during the game. They lost 17-10 but missed 3 field goals and came just short on extending a drive in Iowa territory late in the game. The most notable improvement is the ISU run defense. They were able to hold Iowa's running game in check allowing just 85 rushing yards on 1.9 per carry. This is despite two defensive line starters leaving the game with injuries. DT Brent Curvey is probable to return this week and DE Cephus Johnson is questionable. Both backups performed admirably as this years team has much improved depth. The return of LB/DE Tyson Smith (injured in first game last year) and the emergence of JC transfer LB Tim Dobbins (2nd on team in tackles through two games) has been huge for this defense. Through two games, this unit has already registered 8 sacks, equaling their total from all of last season. Offensively, the Cyclones are using two quarterbacks. Redshirt freshman Bret Meyer is the starter and sophomore Austin Flynn (7 starts last year) has been playing about 1/3 of the game off the bench. Both can do good things and neither QB has thrown an interception or lost a fumble yet. RB Stevie Hicks is a strong hard runner. Good looking young WR tandem of Todd Blythe (6'5) and Jon Davis (6'4) will give any defense size matchup problems. ISU had some nice drives against a very good Iowa front seven last week and should continue to get better.
Northern Illinois entered the season having to replace both their offensive and defensive coordinators, the schools all-time all purpose yard leader in RB Michael Turner, a 1,000 yard receiver, and three all-conference players on defense. Things got worse when senior starting QB Josh Haldi suffered a stress fracture in the opening series in first game at Maryland. He has not played since and is not expected back until next week. Sophomore Phil Horvath is now the starting QB, at least for one more week. I would rate his play as "average" at best. He played decent in the second half at Maryland and completed 50% of his passes in his first start last week, but most of his success has come in non-meaningful situations. Versus I-AA opponent Southern Illinois last week, Horvath started 2-of-10 for 7 yards and defenders had two hands on three of those incompletions. SIU was an undersized opponent. NIU often had huge holes to run through and Horvath had all the time needed to throw but the offense still stalled on a majority of drives. NIU had two drives start inside the 30 yard line thanks to a turnover and a nice punt return but had to settle for FG's on both occasions. They also had a drive extended due to a questionable roughing the punter call. NIU's biggest offensive play of the game was a double pass trick play that went for a 61 yard score. The defense was not much better as they allowed two 4th quarter TD drives that gave Southern Illinois an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point conversion but the pass to an open tight end was slightly under thrown and NIU escaped 23-22. The two teams ended with almost identical total yardage, and SIU had 5 more first downs despite a -1 turnover ratio. Some would argue that Southern Illinois is ranked #2 in I-AA but I can tell you that by I-A standards they were not impressive.
Prior to last season, Iowa State had three winning seasons in a row, a huge accomplishment for head coach Dan McCarney. He has done a great job and has this program headed in the right direction again. Under McCarney the Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in the role of favorite, 14-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Cyclones always get good fan support, even during last years dreadful season they averaged close to capacity. NIU won last years meeting by only 8 in Illinois. ISU was leading that game 7-0 and driving when an interception runback put NIU in scoring position. A second interception later in the game led to another NIU touchdown. ISU actually had more total yards and first downs for the game. There was reportedly more trash talking than usual by NIU players during and after the game which should present a great opportunity for Iowa State to get revenge. Iowa State has a BYE week following this game and they are sure to give 100% effort. Northern Illinois has a short week before a huge showdown with Bowling Green in MAC opener on national television next Friday. Give the small number.
Iowa State 1 UNIT
Wisconsin at Arizona (UNDER 41) - 1:00pm Pacific
Oddsmakers really could not make this total low enough. Arizona games so far this year have averaged 26.5 total points and Wisconsin games have averaged 30.5. That is a 28.5 total points per game average over a four game stretch between the two teams.
Arizona has scored 27 points in two games, 14 of those coming in the 4th quarter of their win over I-AA foe Northern Arizona. They are averaging 1.7 points in all other quarters so far. In their defense, they committed four turnovers and were stopped on a 4th and 1 at the goal line in last game vs Utah, but the Utes are a bit banged up on defense and are not exactly a defensive juggernaut to begin with. The Cats still ended with just 6 points, including 0 in the second half. Arizona has averaged just 12.76 points per game in their last 13 outings dating back to last season. They are learning a new offensive system and it will be a while before any significant improvement is made. Defensively, the Cats already look much improved. This is to be expected by a Stoops coached defense. They held a very good Utah offense to a very respectable 326 total yards and 23 points, only 6 coming in the second half. This is despite 4 turnovers putting Utah in good field position on multiple occasions. The Utes scored a TD on an 11 yard drive and a short FG on a 19 yard drive. The Wildcat defense played much better in the second half and should continue major improvement week to week under Stoops.
The Wisconsin offense has experience, except at the two most important positions, QB & RB. Sophomore John Stocco is the new starting QB. He has been decent completing 22-of-42 with one interception but this will be his first road test and perhaps the best defense he has faced. He completed 14 passes vs UNLV but only for an average of 9.35 yards a catch. The other big area for concern is running back. Standout starter Anthony Davis remains out with an eye injury, clear #2 RB Dwayne Smith had his career ended by a heart ailment. Projected #3 transfer Brian Calhoun is out as well. That leaves the Badgers with fourth stringer Booker Stanley and a true freshman Jamil Walker who did not even dress in the first game but now is listed as the #1 RB. This is arguably the most important position in the Wisconsin offense and the loss of talent and experience will limit their scoring ability. Wisconsin had one offensive touchdown vs UNLV as their remaining 11 points came from two safeties and a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. Defensively, insiders are calling this the best defensive line ever at Wisconsin. The secondary is also outstanding with three key starters back. The only question is at linebacker where two key starters depart but so far the replacements have been suffice. Eight starters are back in all plus the addition of DE Erasmus James who missed last season with injury and CB Brett Bell who was injured in third game last year. Wisconsin has not allowed an offensive touchdown in their first two games and I see no reason for them not to continue to dominate this week. The Badgers are also helped by new place-kicker who boots kickoffs to the end zone limiting KO returns which were a problem last year.
Rarely will you see a 1:00pm local start time in Arizona this time of year. Gametime temperatures will be in the upper 90's and could be over 100 on the field. Both teams prefer running the ball. Wisconsin has run 67% of the time and Arizona 61% of the time in two games. With the severe heat, I expect lots of slow movement and standing around in-between plays with the clock moving. Both head coaches are former defensive coordinators and UW's Barry Alvarez is a good friend of the Stoops so I expect conservative play calling and no running up of the score if Wisconsin has the chance. Both teams will emphasize keeping their defenses off the field. The Badgers are known to be very "vanilla" early in the season and they do not exactly thrive in the role of a double digit away favorite (0-6 ATS since 1999). This has all the makings of a low scoring affair.
Under 41 1 UNIT
*As of this writing there are still some 41.5's out there, including Pinnacle.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Week 4 recap of plays:
Sunday Night Early Looks (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
West Virginia -7
Kentucky -1.5
Cincinnati -1
Iowa State -2.5
Arizona State -1.5
Official RAS Plays (recommended as 1 UNIT plays)
Iowa State -3
Arizona/Wisconsin (UNDER 41)
Saturday Half-time Plays (recommended as 1/2 UNIT plays)
To be determined
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Two RAS plays for Saturday:
Northern Illinois at Iowa State (-3) - 9:30am Pacific
The Cyclones are night and day improved from a year ago. They opened last season just squeaking by I-AA foe Northern Iowa 17-10 but dominated them in season opener this year 23-0. They showed a lot of heart last week at Iowa in a game that no one gave them a chance in. You could see them improving and coming together as a team during the game. They lost 17-10 but missed 3 field goals and came just short on extending a drive in Iowa territory late in the game. The most notable improvement is the ISU run defense. They were able to hold Iowa's running game in check allowing just 85 rushing yards on 1.9 per carry. This is despite two defensive line starters leaving the game with injuries. DT Brent Curvey is probable to return this week and DE Cephus Johnson is questionable. Both backups performed admirably as this years team has much improved depth. The return of LB/DE Tyson Smith (injured in first game last year) and the emergence of JC transfer LB Tim Dobbins (2nd on team in tackles through two games) has been huge for this defense. Through two games, this unit has already registered 8 sacks, equaling their total from all of last season. Offensively, the Cyclones are using two quarterbacks. Redshirt freshman Bret Meyer is the starter and sophomore Austin Flynn (7 starts last year) has been playing about 1/3 of the game off the bench. Both can do good things and neither QB has thrown an interception or lost a fumble yet. RB Stevie Hicks is a strong hard runner. Good looking young WR tandem of Todd Blythe (6'5) and Jon Davis (6'4) will give any defense size matchup problems. ISU had some nice drives against a very good Iowa front seven last week and should continue to get better.
Northern Illinois entered the season having to replace both their offensive and defensive coordinators, the schools all-time all purpose yard leader in RB Michael Turner, a 1,000 yard receiver, and three all-conference players on defense. Things got worse when senior starting QB Josh Haldi suffered a stress fracture in the opening series in first game at Maryland. He has not played since and is not expected back until next week. Sophomore Phil Horvath is now the starting QB, at least for one more week. I would rate his play as "average" at best. He played decent in the second half at Maryland and completed 50% of his passes in his first start last week, but most of his success has come in non-meaningful situations. Versus I-AA opponent Southern Illinois last week, Horvath started 2-of-10 for 7 yards and defenders had two hands on three of those incompletions. SIU was an undersized opponent. NIU often had huge holes to run through and Horvath had all the time needed to throw but the offense still stalled on a majority of drives. NIU had two drives start inside the 30 yard line thanks to a turnover and a nice punt return but had to settle for FG's on both occasions. They also had a drive extended due to a questionable roughing the punter call. NIU's biggest offensive play of the game was a double pass trick play that went for a 61 yard score. The defense was not much better as they allowed two 4th quarter TD drives that gave Southern Illinois an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point conversion but the pass to an open tight end was slightly under thrown and NIU escaped 23-22. The two teams ended with almost identical total yardage, and SIU had 5 more first downs despite a -1 turnover ratio. Some would argue that Southern Illinois is ranked #2 in I-AA but I can tell you that by I-A standards they were not impressive.
Prior to last season, Iowa State had three winning seasons in a row, a huge accomplishment for head coach Dan McCarney. He has done a great job and has this program headed in the right direction again. Under McCarney the Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in the role of favorite, 14-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Cyclones always get good fan support, even during last years dreadful season they averaged close to capacity. NIU won last years meeting by only 8 in Illinois. ISU was leading that game 7-0 and driving when an interception runback put NIU in scoring position. A second interception later in the game led to another NIU touchdown. ISU actually had more total yards and first downs for the game. There was reportedly more trash talking than usual by NIU players during and after the game which should present a great opportunity for Iowa State to get revenge. Iowa State has a BYE week following this game and they are sure to give 100% effort. Northern Illinois has a short week before a huge showdown with Bowling Green in MAC opener on national television next Friday. Give the small number.
Iowa State 1 UNIT
Wisconsin at Arizona (UNDER 41) - 1:00pm Pacific
Oddsmakers really could not make this total low enough. Arizona games so far this year have averaged 26.5 total points and Wisconsin games have averaged 30.5. That is a 28.5 total points per game average over a four game stretch between the two teams.
Arizona has scored 27 points in two games, 14 of those coming in the 4th quarter of their win over I-AA foe Northern Arizona. They are averaging 1.7 points in all other quarters so far. In their defense, they committed four turnovers and were stopped on a 4th and 1 at the goal line in last game vs Utah, but the Utes are a bit banged up on defense and are not exactly a defensive juggernaut to begin with. The Cats still ended with just 6 points, including 0 in the second half. Arizona has averaged just 12.76 points per game in their last 13 outings dating back to last season. They are learning a new offensive system and it will be a while before any significant improvement is made. Defensively, the Cats already look much improved. This is to be expected by a Stoops coached defense. They held a very good Utah offense to a very respectable 326 total yards and 23 points, only 6 coming in the second half. This is despite 4 turnovers putting Utah in good field position on multiple occasions. The Utes scored a TD on an 11 yard drive and a short FG on a 19 yard drive. The Wildcat defense played much better in the second half and should continue major improvement week to week under Stoops.
The Wisconsin offense has experience, except at the two most important positions, QB & RB. Sophomore John Stocco is the new starting QB. He has been decent completing 22-of-42 with one interception but this will be his first road test and perhaps the best defense he has faced. He completed 14 passes vs UNLV but only for an average of 9.35 yards a catch. The other big area for concern is running back. Standout starter Anthony Davis remains out with an eye injury, clear #2 RB Dwayne Smith had his career ended by a heart ailment. Projected #3 transfer Brian Calhoun is out as well. That leaves the Badgers with fourth stringer Booker Stanley and a true freshman Jamil Walker who did not even dress in the first game but now is listed as the #1 RB. This is arguably the most important position in the Wisconsin offense and the loss of talent and experience will limit their scoring ability. Wisconsin had one offensive touchdown vs UNLV as their remaining 11 points came from two safeties and a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. Defensively, insiders are calling this the best defensive line ever at Wisconsin. The secondary is also outstanding with three key starters back. The only question is at linebacker where two key starters depart but so far the replacements have been suffice. Eight starters are back in all plus the addition of DE Erasmus James who missed last season with injury and CB Brett Bell who was injured in third game last year. Wisconsin has not allowed an offensive touchdown in their first two games and I see no reason for them not to continue to dominate this week. The Badgers are also helped by new place-kicker who boots kickoffs to the end zone limiting KO returns which were a problem last year.
Rarely will you see a 1:00pm local start time in Arizona this time of year. Gametime temperatures will be in the upper 90's and could be over 100 on the field. Both teams prefer running the ball. Wisconsin has run 67% of the time and Arizona 61% of the time in two games. With the severe heat, I expect lots of slow movement and standing around in-between plays with the clock moving. Both head coaches are former defensive coordinators and UW's Barry Alvarez is a good friend of the Stoops so I expect conservative play calling and no running up of the score if Wisconsin has the chance. Both teams will emphasize keeping their defenses off the field. The Badgers are known to be very "vanilla" early in the season and they do not exactly thrive in the role of a double digit away favorite (0-6 ATS since 1999). This has all the makings of a low scoring affair.
Under 41 1 UNIT
*As of this writing there are still some 41.5's out there, including Pinnacle.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
