RAS Analysis: UC Irvine at California (-11.5)

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Season Record: 4-3 +1.7 UNITS

One of our two plays for Wednesday:

UC Irvine at California (-11.5) - 7:00pm Pacific
The Bears return three starters from last years NCAA tournament team and have one of the top recruiting classes in the nation which includes two McDonald's All-Americans in forward Leon Powe and guard Ayinde Ubaka. Much preseason hype has surrounded this team but so far the results have not been too impressive. They blew a big lead late in their opener vs Cal Poly and lost on a tip in at the buzzer. In that game they led by 8 with three minutes left but sloppy play cost them. They rebounded to beat a good BYU team at the buzzer in next game but then lost at UNLV by 2 in their most recent game. In that game they team really appeared to turn the corner as they rallied from a 51-31 second half deficit with 14 minutes to play and had three shots in their final possession to tie or take the lead. With two bitter losses and three close games under their belts, I believe Cal is ready for a breakout game. Freshman Powe has had a double double in each of his first three college games. Freshman point guard Ubaka has 12 assists to just 3 turnovers in his first three college games. He came off the bench in season opener but was quickly inserted into the starting lineup in second game. Returning starters C/F Amit Tamir and guard Richard Midgely, both outstanding shooters last year, have struggled so far this season. Cal as a team is shooting just 8-for-45 (.177) from behind the arc. Once they get a couple shots to fall everything will come easier for this team.

I was there to witness Stanford's drubbing of UC Irvine eight days ago. The game was never as close as the 13 point final margin. Stanford played without arguably their best player Josh Childress but immediately took control of the game. They led 9-0 and forced a UCI timeout before eventually leading 24-5. The half-time lead was 23 and Stanford cruised throughout the game seemingly doing whatever they wanted. UCI has a good big man in senior Adam Parada who they need in the game at all times to have a chance at defending or rebounding inside. Forward Stan Zuzak has a nice outside touch but no one on this team is adept at creating shots for themselves or teammates. That is what the Anteaters miss most from the departure of seniors Jordan Harris (all Big West, leading scorer) and Mike Hood (third leading scorer). So far no one has come close to stepping up and until they do Parada will continue to be collapsed on inside which limits his impact. UCI lacks any quality depth and looked much slower than teams in recent years. Last years team lost by 27 in a December road game at Stanford and this years version appears much weaker.

Cal head coach Ben Braun is a good one and he already has his team playing good defense and rebounding well (outrebounded all three opponents) which was thought to be a weakness heading into the season. He we will get the offense on track soon. Braun committed to his freshman early on by starting three of them. It is only a matter of time before they start delivering. This is the weakest team Cal has faced yet and I look for them to play their best game yet. Look for an easy Bears win here.

California 1 UNIT


Good luck,

Edward
Right Angle Sports
 

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do you have any thoughts on riverside+13 at ucla
i like the points in that one. riverside has played good competition and hasnt been beat by much in them and ucla just got by vermont

good luck
 

The Great Govenor of California
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tex,

riverside is only getting 10

Ed,

I was at the same game, anybody there has to plunge against UCI next few games. Parada hasnt gotten better since he was a freshman.
 
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UCR was one of my added looks today.

UC-Riverside +11.5 over UCLA - 7:30pm Pacific
Riverside has a couple of players who can play on any Pac-10 team. Center Vili Morton and guard Nate Carter are good ones. Guard Kevin Butler is a four year starter. The Highlanders have already given two Pac-10 teams scares, coming closer to victory each time. Most recently they led at Arizona State by 6 at halftime before losing by 9. This is their last and best chance to make a splash. UCLA is currently without top forwards Trevor Ariza (breathing disorder) and T.J. Cummings (ineligible first semester). First year coach Ben Howland does not have the type of players needed to play his preferred style. Team was booed off the court trailing by 9 at half to Vermont on Saturday and just managed to pull out a one point win thanks to a no call on a clear UCLA foul to end the game. UCR is well coached and will do everything in their power to make some noise here.
 

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL
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i leeeeean ever so slightly to other way in the cal/irvine game.

i also think ucla is still playing against non-conf foes of lesser reputation like they did w/lavin - basically ignoring them - meaning the dogs are solid plays here.

of all coaches from last year who got canned - i miss lavin the most. when he played schools like san diego, northridge, pepperdine, nau, etc. - schools "beneath" ucla - you could take the dog and know you had about a 90% chance of getting the money.

let's hope lavin gets a job somewhere soon - my wallet needs him back!
 

The Great Govenor of California
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Coach Steve always got to the sweet 16, and is a great announcer. Vermont is very underrated, I look for the Bruins to get the money.
 

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