[h=1]Ranking NFL head coaches by tier[/h][h=3]We had 30 NFL insiders grade every current NFL head coach[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
There is no way to accurately rank the 32 NFL head coaches, but polling 30 league insiders is a pretty good place to start.
Much like the "QB Tiers" project published earlier in the offseason, I asked what I consider a balanced range of informed voters -- eight current general managers, four former GMs, four personnel directors, four executives, six coordinators and four position coaches -- to provide a 1-5 rating for every head coach. Bill Belichick led the way with 28 votes in the first tier, followed by Pete Carroll (23) and Sean Payton (22). No one else commanded more than a dozen top-tier votes, drawing a clear line after these three coaches in the eyes of the 30 insiders. But another half-dozen coaches were not too far behind, and there were surprises along the way.
Once votes were collected, I averaged the ratings for each coach to produce a 1-32 order. I separated them into tiers at logical cut-off points, based on the voting results (including the tier in which each coach got the majority of his votes, and his average overall score). The general feeling was that NFL coaches tend to be very smart and very good at what they do. We saw that in the ratings. Twenty-three coaches averaged better than a 3.0 on the 1-5 scale (1 was best, 5 worst), and no coaches landed in Tier 5.
Where did every coach rank, and why? We've got the answers below, including some illuminating quotes from the voters on each guy.
[h=3]Tier 1[/h]
1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots (1.07 average)
Three championships and 11 consecutive seasons with double-digit victories set Belichick apart, as does an 11-5 record when Tom Brady was injured in 2008.
"The most important thing to me is the ability to control the offense, the defense and the special teams," a GM said in describing the ideal coach. "You can change and you can coach multiple things and you have the ability to teach almost every position group. Then you can lose any coach you want and replace from within because the head coach is the talent. Belichick is the ultimate model of that."
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Belichick commanded a 1 vote on 28 of 30 ballots. What would lead to someone giving Belichick a 2 grade in such a survey? One coordinator questioned whether Belichick would be so widely lauded if the Patriots had not "lucked into" an all-time great quarterback when selecting Brady in the sixth round. Then again, how many coaches win big consistently without a good QB? Belichick has repeatedly reconfigured the team around Brady and won with different profiles on both sides of the ball.
The other 2 vote for Belichick came from an assistant coach who pointed to Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels and the other Belichick assistants who failed as head coaches elsewhere. This coach thought a Tier 1 head coach should develop assistants, not just players. "The guys that [Belichick] trains, when they leave, they try to be like him rather than themselves," this assistant said, adding that he thought there was great power in allowing assistants to be themselves.
These criticisms might be fair, but they were insufficient to remove Belichick from the top tier, as he still finished No. 1 in the league. "A lot of guys that coach, it's all about them," a GM said. "It's about their scheme. It's about what they do. That is not it. Bill Belichick is as astute of a person as you would want, but he is a maniacal guy when it comes to preparing his team. They get together and they meet about the team. The offense should know how the defense is played, the defense should know how the offense is played, and it is that notion that builds greatness."
2. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks (1.23 average)
Carroll's sky-high ranking was one of the revelations of this project. I figured Carroll would be on the rise following the Seahawks' Super Bowl championship, but second in the NFL to Belichick already?
"With Pete, the way they manage the game and manage their personnel is probably better than anybody," one GM said.
It has been a total transformation, with Carroll and GM John Schneider working well together to stock the roster with young players the staff has developed consistently. Consider: In the three years before Carroll's arrival, Seattle lost 19 games by more than seven points. Their current 45-game streak without such a defeat dates to Week 9 of the 2011 season and is the longest in the league. Belichick's Patriots are second with just two such defeats over the same span.
One former GM who listed Carroll as a 2 said he did not think Carroll was quite innovative enough from a scheme standpoint to rank near the very top. However, another voter said he had read Carroll's book multiple times, trying to glean whatever he could.
"He relates great to players, is a great motivator, good manager, can put together a good staff; he is connected with all that and you have to give that guy a lot of credit personally for their defensive scheme and how they play it," a former GM said. "The other thing Pete does a good job of is, even when there is controversy, he goes with the flow and doesn't come down too hard. He coaches people loose instead of being uptight. Players can perform and react very well. He does not have to jump in. And he is not afraid to play young guys, which is another really good thing."
The three coaches atop this ranking have all won Super Bowls, but none has won one quite the way Carroll did this past season: 43-8 over a record-setting Denver team. "When you say his name, the first thing you think of is the absolute a-- whipping he issued to John Fox in the Super Bowl," one executive said. "If it had been a tight game and the ball bounced one way at the end, he lucked out. But the absolute dominant fashion they won that game in, people are going, 'Holy crap.' No disrespect to Joe Flacco, but he did not beat Flacco. He beat Peyton Manning, and he beat him soundly."
3. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints (1.30 average)
No coach in the league commanded as much respect as Payton did for his abilities as an offensive innovator. "I love his offensive mind -- fabulous," one executive said. A former GM gave Payton the nod over Carroll for that reason. "When I think of innovation, I think of Payton and what they do offensively to spread you out and [embarrass] you," this former GM said.
A former Saints assistant said Payton does a great job creating a culture of positive thinking, but not all outsiders see him in a favorable light. Payton was tied with Carroll in the second spot until one of the final people I polled gave him only a 3 -- the lone 3 Payton received from anyone. This front-office person and one other person I polled thought some of Payton's antics -- for example, playing drums for Jimmy Buffett while the singer wore a "Free Sean Payton" shirt during Payton's year-long suspension -- reflected a tendency for Payton to make things about himself too much. "What I get uncomfortable with him is, you see a lot of ego to the point that it can get in the way," this executive said. "He will switch defensive coordinators every year [three times since 2008] and it gets in the way of maximizing a great quarterback in his prime."
A coach who worked with Payton dismissed those concerns. "I can understand where someone would think that about Sean, but there is a reason he made it about him," this coach said. "The reason he makes it about him is he is a Bill Parcells disciple. He makes it about him so for the players, it's all about team. They don't want any 'stars' on the team. Everything is about team. Belichick is much the same way. Sean can come off as cocky and rub someone the wrong way, but he is very enthusiastic. I love him to death."
[h=3]Tier 2[/h]
4. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs (1.67 average)
Reid is the only coach among the top seven without a Super Bowl title, a testament to his consistency over an extended period. "When you talk about Andy Reid being to five NFC title games or Belichick with three Super Bowls, that is what I see as a 1 -- a Hall of Fame-type coach," a former GM said. "It's the amount of wins, staying in the same spot and then going to a new place and going to the playoffs from the get-go with a journeyman quarterback. He just has a [presence] about him, the chemistry of winning."
A defensive coordinator put it this way: "To me, a 1 is a guy who consistently wins regardless of what he has, and when you look at what Andy did in Philadelphia, I know he did not win a Super Bowl, but consistently winning the division for so many years, that is hard to do. It is the same with Belichick, but Donovan McNabb ain't Tom Brady."
Reid also has a proven offensive system. However, one personnel evaluator said there were additional challenges associated with stocking a roster for Reid. "I have watched how that system operates and there is not a lot of flexibility," the evaluator said. "It makes it hard when you do not have exactly what the system needs from a personnel standpoint. It is easy to miscommunicate and misidentify talent or not adjust to the talent you have in the short term. It is hard to sustain and compete in the postseason."
5. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants (1.73 average)
Having two Super Bowl titles in the bank bought some insurance for Coughlin coming off a 7-9 season featuring an 0-6 start. There was some thinking that Coughlin, the NFL's oldest coach (he'll turn 68 on Sunday), had slipped from a 1 to a 2 in recent years, but that is difficult to know from afar. Coughlin drew high marks for taking Jacksonville to the AFC title game, then adjusting his old-school approach to help the Giants win two Super Bowls, one of them against an 18-0 New England team.
"He is every bit as solid as Belichick," said a former GM who placed Coughlin in the top tier. "He has done it over time and been very consistent. You can say he is old-school, but I think he appeals to young guys. He is very sound. Nothing falls through the cracks. These guys at the top, if I were with them, I would spend not a single minute worried about whether we were coached right or had everything covered."
T-6. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers (1.77 average)
Like Payton, McCarthy gets high marks for his offensive acumen and overall leadership. The Packers have won with varying run/pass emphasis and they continue to evolve as their personnel changes. But the Packers' defensive performance has declined in recent seasons, leading voters to cite the same reasoning over and over when asked why McCarthy wasn't a 1 in their eyes.
"I like him as a head coach and would love to work for him," one veteran assistant coach said. "I think Mike is a great offensive coordinator who has done some pretty good things as a head coach, but defensively and on special teams, they have never done well enough up there. There is something missing in the program."
A former GM said he thought McCarthy needed to "fix the staff defensively" while noting that the head coach must coach the coaches, not just the players. McCarthy did get 11 votes in the first tier, however. One of those votes came from an executive who blamed some of the defensive issues on personnel, noting that McCarthy had in fact made sweeping staff changes back in 2009.
A GM placing McCarthy in the top tier focused on offensive flexibility. "You look at him as an offensive playcaller and he was grinding the s--- out of the ball when he was in New Orleans, and then he changed things up," the GM said. "He developed a passing game in Green Bay, and he is just the same guy all the time -- strong leader."
T-6. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.77 average)
The Steelers haven't been as good lately, and Tomlin will never be seen as a schematic guru while Dick LeBeau runs the defense, but he is held in extremely high regard for the way he has gone about the job under some tricky circumstances. "Loyalty in that organization is probably one of their greatest strengths, if not in all of football," a former head coach said. "He took a really nice team and took it to another level, and as the team aged on him and they really didn't replenish, he hasn't blinked. He has hung in there and I think they are going to be very good again. I think he has developed the young guys quickly and I think he has stood his ground on, 'Here is what the organization believes -- loyalty, loyalty, loyalty,' and I think he has done a great job of adopting that."
A former Steelers assistant said Tomlin, who came up in the Tampa 2 defensive system, showed "amazing self-control" by never once pushing his own defensive agenda onto LeBeau, a holdover from Bill Cowher's staff. The Steelers also reportedly forced Tomlin to replace offensive coordinator Bruce Arians with Todd Haley. "For me, a definite 1 is Mike Tomlin," an offensive assistant coach said. "He has [the team's] attention, he can speak every language in the locker room, he is extremely accountable, he understands tradition at the place he is at -- he is one with his building. He has enthusiasm and energy that bleeds into everyone in the organization. They hired a coordinator he did not put his stamp on; but Haley is a good football coach, so Tomlin rolls with it. New offensive line coach, he rolls with it. He just keeps rolling."
A former GM credited Tomlin for "somehow keeping it all together" through tumultuous times. "They were 2-6 last year and finished 8-8 -- that is what a good coach does," this ex-GM said. An executive credited Tomlin and some of the other higher-ranked coaches for raising expectations to the point that "the sky is falling" if their teams have a .500 season.
8. Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers (1.80 average)
The 49ers instantly went from colossal underachievers to championship contenders when Harbaugh arrived from Stanford, where he had built that program into a power. No NFL coach has more total victories than Harbaugh since his arrival with the 49ers in 2011. He and Belichick are each 41-14 over that span, with no other team posting more than 37 victories. "Win a Super Bowl and he is a 1 to me," one executive said.
Some noted that Harbaugh inherited a deep and talented roster, and that his hard-charging personality wears on people. One GM said he downgraded Harbaugh from a 1 to a 2 over tension between Harbaugh and the front office. Another executive said a 1 should have no real flaws, and that Harbaugh's combustible temperament qualifies as a flaw. Another GM said, "the personality stuff is going to show up" in a negative way at some point in the future.
"I think the jury is out on Jim still, I really do," a former GM said. "A lot of people think he is a genius. I'd rather have the other brother. I think Jim could get [out-schemed] any day and give you that look afterward like, 'We never saw that [coming].'"
For what it's worth, others have lauded Harbaugh and his staff for their creative use of personnel and formations, and for the nuance within their running game -- and even the former GM quoted above said that he would be OK with having Harbaugh as his head coach.
A former player working as a personnel evaluator downplayed some of the other concerns. "That gets a little old, the animation on the sideline and those things," he said, "but at the end of the day, he is a good coach. He understands what he is doing. He has won everywhere he has been. I think his guys play for him. You may not like the person, but you like the product. As a player and a coach, you separate that from the other stuff. You are not necessarily best friends with everyone you work with, but if I believe in what you are saying, OK, I can roll with you. That is what I see with him."
9. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens (1.87 average)
The Ravens rank second to the Patriots in total victories with 71 since 2008, the year Harbaugh succeeded Brian Billick as head coach. They've won a Super Bowl without a great quarterback, although Flacco certainly played great during that memorable postseason run in 2013. John Harbaugh has a 71-38 record (.651) that lines up closely with the .657 career mark for Belichick.
"I think he is creative, he motivates, his people are good when they leave, I think he does it right and I just love what I see," an offensive assistant coach said. This coach gave John a 1 and Jim a 2 for this project. "The reason I gave Jimmy a 2 is they both have great fire, but Jimmy's emotions sometimes get in his way, where John's do not," this coach said. "When you are saying 1s to me, there is some critical factor that they are able to overcome."
A former GM put it this way: "The 2s have all been 1s, but they do not stay there. The 1s stay there. Every one of those 2s have their 1 moments, but there is a bigger wave, not a straight line across. At the high point, they hit it. Most of them have a hole that pulls them down once in a while."
Troubles on offense have held back the Ravens at times. "I think they might have the best organization in the NFL, or close to it," one executive said. "I do not know if John Harbaugh would have the same success elsewhere. I would give him a very high 2."
10. John Fox, Denver Broncos (1.97 average)
Fox gets high marks for taking two teams to Super Bowls, with and without a great quarterback. He received more 2 votes than anyone, and there wasn't much discussion. "He was up and down in Carolina and had no chance at the end," one executive said. "You gotta give him credit for getting to the playoffs with Tim Tebow in Denver."
One assistant coach challenged the notion that winning big is automatic with Peyton Manning behind center. "If it's all about Peyton, what happened in the Super Bowl?" this coach asked. "There is a whole lot of coaching going on to score 600-plus points with 55 touchdown passes and break records not by one yard and one TD, but by hundreds of yards and five TDs."
It would be interesting to know where Fox would rank relative to Carroll if the Broncos had blown out the Seahawks in the Super Bowl instead of the reverse unfolding. Multiple voters said they could not give a coach a 1 without a Super Bowl victory.
11. Jeff Fisher, St. Louis Rams (2.10 average)
Fisher came excruciatingly close to winning a Super Bowl with Tennessee despite a challenging ownership situation. The Rams have won 45.3 percent of their games in two seasons under Fisher after winning 18.8 percent over their previous five seasons. They've done it despite playing nine of 32 games with a backup QB.
"He has a personality where his players like playing for him. He motivates guys in different ways," a personnel director said. "He handles his coaches fairly well and delegates pretty well. It'll be interesting how he and Gregg Williams mesh this time. They meshed well in the past. Fisher brings a lot to the table as a knowledgeable head coach."
A former GM lauded Fisher as an outstanding in-game manager. "You know what you're getting with Fisher and the message stays the same," a personnel evaluator said. "He's got an identity for his teams. Whether it is Gregg Williams' or his, you know they are going to be coached up and play their a--es off."
Fisher enjoys a high league profile as co-chairman of the NFL's competition committee, but that seemed to work against him with some of the voters. There was a feeling that a gap exists between how Fisher is perceived by the media and his .532 career winning percentage (.455 playoffs). "I think he was a great coach until he got into being the head of the competition committee, being the half-GM in St. Louis and that stuff," a former GM said. "I don't think any of that has been good for him. He was at his best when he was with Floyd Reese [with the Titans] and he just coached."
A coordinator put it this way: "Fisher has been a head coach a long time and won games, and there has been more positive than negative, but they treat him like he has 10 Super Bowls."
Last season, the Rams ranked 20th in Total QBR allowed and 24th in passer rating allowed despite ranking second to Carolina in sack rate. "The defense, that is Fisher's strong suit, and it hasn't really taken the next step," a personnel evaluator said. "I feel like if you're an offensive guy or a defensive guy, that should be the No. 1 thing on your team that they are really talking about."
12. Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles (2.20 average)
There were a couple of schools of thought on Kelly. Some were sufficiently excited about him to anoint him as a 1 after a single successful season in the NFL. Others of a similar mind thought he was a 2 trending toward the top tier. Nine voters placed Kelly in that third category, taking a wait-and-see approach. One noted that the Eagles struggled for a stretch last season before taking advantage of an unusually weak NFC East.
"Kelly is the fascinating guy to me, because with a lot of these young [coaches] I'm not sure, but Chip has a chance to be really special," a former GM said while putting Kelly in the second tier with the arrow pointing up. "He is going to do it differently. Even the DeSean Jackson thing, he was not afraid to get rid of him. He thinks his system can overcome everything and sometimes those guys know. He interests me greatly."
A defensive coordinator lauded Kelly for doing an outstanding job with players. The coordinator also suggested time would tell whether Kelly's offense would have staying power. "I think he is a 1," a GM said. "I just think he doesn't give a s--- what other people think, and he has his beliefs, he is outside the box and he is true to himself."
13. Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals (2.33 average)
Arians is already polling closer to a 2 than a 3 after just one full season as an NFL head coach. He was one of 13 head coaches to receive multiple Tier 1 votes. He's getting credit for how he handled the situation in Indianapolis when cancer sidelined Chuck Pagano. He's getting credit for taking Arizona to a 10-6 record after the Cardinals had gone 5-11 the previous season. Winning in Seattle one season after the Cardinals lost there by a 58-0 count works in his favor.
"He is great with quarterbacks, has a very good offensive mind and a strong personality," one GM said. "Look at what he did in Indy and what he has done in Arizona. Great hire."
Multiple voters said they thought players responded to Arians and played for him. They thought Arians possessed toughness and extreme confidence in what he is doing offensively. "Very innovative and has a presence about him," an offensive coordinator said. "He has a way about himself."
Said a personnel evaluator: "I like Arians' approach to guys. He is himself. That is huge. He comes off a little quirky but does not go overboard the way Rex Ryan does."
A couple of voters thought the 2014 season would be revealing. One thought the 2013 schedule fell right for Arizona as several of the Cardinals' opponents seemed to be in disarray.
14. Lovie Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.43 average)
Smith's Chicago teams ranked better than 14th in scoring just once, and when they did, the Bears reached the Super Bowl. His teams ranked among the top four in points allowed four times. The Bears under Smith posted five winning records, one .500 mark and three losing records without ever gaining the necessary consistency on offense. They were 3-3 in the playoffs.
"He never panics, never says it's do-or-die if he loses two games," a former GM said. "Every day, he is the same guy. People get used to that. He's won a lot of games."
15. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals (2.47 average)
Lewis would have fared better in polling if his teams had not gone 0-5 in the postseason. Voters generally gave him high marks for the positive change he has made within an organization that was for years viewed among the very worst in professional sports. "Sometimes you give people extra credit for where they coach and that whole Cincy place has been a tough place to win," a GM said. "They used to make the coaches do the scouting work. They ask a lot of their coaches. They are a talented team and he is part of that. He is almost a 2 to me, but 90-85 with an 0-5 playoff record is a 3 to me."
A former GM who did not participate in this survey said he found it "shocking" that Lewis did not poll higher. A coordinator had this to say: "Marvin took over a franchise that is troubled and, no, they have not won a playoff game, but look at the Cleveland Browns today. If you asked every person in that organization or who comes to the stadium if they would take a winning season but lose in the playoffs, they would take it."
[h=3]Tier 3[/h]
16. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts (2.60 average)
Pagano has had just one full season as a head coach after missing much of 2012 during his cancer fight. One voter felt good enough about what he has seen to place Pagano in the top tier. (This voter tied one other voter with nine first-tier votes. The average was 5.1 and the low was two.)
"One of the things I thought about is getting your players to play for you," this voter said. "Even though Bruce Arians was running the show [in 2012], I think his players played for [Pagano]. It was a little personal and emotional, but I felt that was a group of players doing whatever they had to do to play for him. This past year, when Bruce was gone, they wound up winning in the playoffs without having an overly talented team. They played their butts off for their coach more than anyone else. He did a great job of motivating them."
Another line of thinking says the Colts lucked into a franchise quarterback and are benefiting from playing within a weak AFC South featuring zero other franchise QBs. That said, the Colts defeated San Francisco, Seattle, Denver and Kansas City last season. "I think he is a good coach, but some contributing factors make me want to see more against better competition," one executive said.
17. Rex Ryan, New York Jets (2.73 average)
I thought Ryan would poll higher than this after reaching two AFC title games without the benefit of a top-notch quarterback. With Mark Sanchez behind center, Ryan owns playoff victories over teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. His Jets went 8-8 last season with a rookie quarterback who ranked 34th in Total QBR. The five qualifying QBs with lower metrics combined to go 9-32. "To do what he does with the s--- he gets? He does a good job, now," one coordinator said.
There were only 14 votes in the 5 category and Ryan received one of them from a personnel evaluator who thought Ryan's bluster undermined his credibility. "You don't go to back-to-back AFC Championships and be a bad coach," another personnel evaluator said. "Where people probably hate on him is he is a bit of a blowhard, he says what he wants, he is not afraid to spout off to the camera and that rubs people the wrong way. People from a distance think he is all ego, but the players love him, from everything I hear."
One theory on Ryan says the Jets in the past have encouraged his bluster in an effort to become more relevant, but when the team lost, it became perceived as a negative. One Ryan supporter noted that he has kept the team competitive with a shaky QB even while the front office slashed payroll. "On that team, who are they paying?" this supporter said. "Eric Decker, Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and David Harris. That is literally it."
18. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons (2.77 average)
Smith was once lauded for turning around an organization that was in shambles following Bobby Petrino's messy tenure and departure. Now, he's criticized for failing to meet the expectations that he helped raise. There's a strong feeling the Falcons should have fared better in the playoffs than they have under Smith.
"He is an interesting one only because I like him and thought he was really good," one long-time evaluator said. "I'm not sure what happened there last year, but the mark of a good one is how they bounce back from that. Right now, you probably have to say 3 for him. That could go either way, and that is crazy because they have won a lot of games."
A former GM put it this way: "Everyone has injuries. They did not lose the quarterback." Last season hurt, in other words. "He's had some bad breaks in the playoffs but has a nice body of work," another former GM said. "In the building, he is organized, pulls the guys together, works well with personnel. He hits a lot of buttons."
19. Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.80 average)
Carroll's success in Seattle seemed to work in Bradley's favor as voters attempted to evaluate a coach with just one season on his resume. One GM put it this way: "I think he has done a nice job of bringing the Pete Carroll blueprint to life in an authentic way."
A former GM said he could tell from watching the Jaguars even during preseason that the players are energized, having fun and taking care of one another in a manner that puts team before the individual. "I love the guy and think he could be a star," another executive said. "But he went 4-12. Nobody would say he cannot turn it around, but no one has any idea what his coaching actually did. I would bet on him any day of the week, though."
T-20. Ken Whisenhunt, Tennessee Titans (2.83 average)
The coach associated with taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl (Whisenhunt) has lost ground recently to the one associated with Arizona's inability to win enough subsequently without Kurt Warner (also Whisenhunt). Having Arians follow up and instantly produce a 10-win season did not help perceptions. Whisenhunt's next couple of seasons in Tennessee will provide insiders with a clearer read.
"He is what I would look for in a head coach," one GM said. "He is an offensive guy, a guy that has had experience coaching a number of different positions." This GM still placed Whisenhunt in the third tier for now, saying, "When I have seen his teams, I have never been super impressed. Maybe he will prove to be better than that."
Another GM who paid close attention to the Cardinals during Whisenhunt's tenure with the team called him a "damn good coach" who stays true to his philosophy. A third GM said taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl should be enough to command respect, adding, "That is OK to say he hasn't won without Warner, because who wins without a good QB?"
The criticism this one voter had was representative of a lot of others directed at Whisenhunt: "The head coaches have to have a specialty, but as a head coach, I do not know that his genius comes out as much as it did when he was an offensive coordinator, whether in Pittsburgh or in San Diego. ... If they play lights-out above and beyond in Tennessee, I would gladly change my grade on him. I see him as damn good offensive coordinator."
T-20. Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers (2.83 average)
McCoy inherited a veteran quarterback and quickly determined the team could win with Philip Rivers, putting the Chargers in a different category from the typical team with a first-year coach. "The QB had a career year and that reflects on the head coach, who has a QB background," one evaluator said. "I just do not know. He was on our list for coordinator interviews at one time. I do not know if he has the charisma, but you have to like what you saw in his first year."
An assistant coach whose team faced the Chargers more than once in the years before McCoy's arrival said he was impressed with what McCoy was able to capture as a first-time head coach from a team with a strong veteran element, even as the front office took steps to make the team younger.
22. Marc Trestman, Chicago Bears (2.93 average)
The Bears went from 10-6 in Lovie Smith's final year to 8-8 under Trestman in 2013, but the offense undoubtedly made significant strides. That caught voters' attention. "He has a very skilled offensive mind and he comes across as very intelligent," one GM said. A former GM put it this way: "Unconventional hire. I think he is really solid in most every area. I would say he is a 3, but the arrow is up. He is like McCoy to me."
One big question is whether Trestman's obvious focus on the offense will come at the expense of the defense and special teams. Personnel-related issues in those areas could cloud the analysis in the short term. "Their defense was atrocious, but was that personnel or injuries?" an executive asked. "He is a 3, but I would be excited about having him."
23. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers (2.97 average)
Rivera seemed to be about out of time before the Panthers rallied from a 1-3 start to win eight in a row and 11 of their final 12 regular-season games. "Great job holding them together," a former GM said.
The Panthers changed GMs during Rivera's tenure and they have subsequently done some roster retooling with an eye toward extricating themselves from lingering salary-cap problems. Expectations for the Panthers around the league have fallen as a result, but as one GM put it, looks can be deceiving.
"Some moves are cap-related, but when you do things, you are not just hoping they work out," this GM said. "You have a reason. If they go through all they went through and they felt like losing Steve Smith makes them a better team and they let him walk and it works out, Rivera easily goes to a 2 for me. There is risk. You did not play it safe."
[h=3]Tier 4[/h]
24. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings (3.27 average)
Zimmer has never served as a head coach before, but he has been around long enough for people to have a general feel for him. Reviews were generally positive. "I like him and think he'll be OK," a former GM said. "I am not sure he will be dynamic enough to overcome the people around him [including ownership]. You can be a great coach, but if do not have players and the people in the building don't know what they are doing, you will struggle. That is not a great organizational setup from ownership on down, in my opinion."
This quote from a source was representative of a lot of voters' thoughts: "Zimmer is well-liked, respected, has great passion and people respond very well to him. It is hard to give a 2 to a guy who has not coached a game."
One thing to watch is whether Zimmer pays close enough attention to areas beyond the defense. Having an offensive coordinator as accomplished as Norv Turner should provide some insurance in that area.
25. Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins (3.40 average)
There's less to go on with Gruden than there is for Zimmer, although Gruden was a head coach in the Arena League, which counted for something with a few voters. One GM familiar with Gruden called him engaging and said he'll be able to gain trust and relate well to players. "As for all the organizational stuff, who knows?" this GM said. "There is no reason to believe he will not be good at it. He will not turn people off."
Gruden's predecessors in Washington have complained about organizational challenges. Gruden isn't walking into the easiest situation for a first-time NFL head coach, in other words. "I think Gruden will be a good coach," a former GM said. "He was damn good in Arena ball, won championships there. But how do you know? As a coordinator, he was pretty damn good, but they had some weapons."
26. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans (3.47 average)
Working under Belichick years ago wouldn't necessarily enhance a candidate's pedigree if we're relying upon how well previous New England assistants have fared on their own. In O'Brien's case, however, there is also a successful (if brief) track record at Penn State. "Based on college, I would put him equal with Bradley, a 3," one GM said as he provided ratings for coaches from the AFC South.
A longtime talent evaluator with no ties to New England liked O'Brien's chances. This evaluator listed Belichick and Coughlin as the only Tier One coaches on his ballot. "I like everything about O'Brien and everything I've heard about him, but he has not coached, so he goes to the top of my 4s," this evaluator said. "I would take him over some of the 3s. He has passion, he is a good communicator, he is very smart. I would probably take a chance. Four might be too low, but to be consistent, he has done as much as a Mike Pettine."
A former GM who listed Belichick and Reid as his only Tier One coaches also placed a bet on O'Brien while placing him in the 3s for now. "He will for sure be a 2," this former GM said, "because of his coordinator background, where he has been and the way he did it at Penn State through all the turmoil and adversity. He did it with a true freshman quarterback, too. That is pretty cool."
27. Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions (3.50 average)
When the Lions hired Caldwell, I reached out to his former boss (Bill Polian, now an analyst for ESPN) and one of his former backup quarterbacks (Brock Huard, also with ESPN) in Indianapolis. Both explained why they thought Caldwell would be good for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. Polian also said the mild-mannered Caldwell is vastly underrated as a leader.
Polian and Huard did not participate in this survey. The people who did participate gave Caldwell three 2s, 12 3s, 12 4s and even three 5s. Nearly all the question marks stemmed from the same concern -- Caldwell's mild-mannered temperament. "It's one thing to have the Tony Dungy personality," a GM said. "It is another thing to govern it from a passive perspective. The personality resonates at times, but sometimes it requires a different mantra."
One voter noted that Caldwell benefited from a future Hall of Fame quarterback (Peyton Manning) and a six-time executive of the year (Polian), and then couldn't stop a freefall to 2-14 when Manning was injured. Some of the people who gave Caldwell middling marks liked him, though. "He is a true head coach," another GM said. "He has a heartbeat on his team and what they need at the moment. He is also probably an underrated X-and-O coordinator considering the run he had with the Ravens. In this thing, he deserves to be a 3 for now."
28. Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills (3.53 average)
Marrone had an injured rookie quarterback for his lone season as a head coach. There is very little track record to evaluate. Many voters placed Marrone and other unproven coaches in the 4s by default, not because they necessarily saw specific flaws. One former GM gave Marrone a 3 and placed him ahead of the Jets' Ryan in his pecking order. A pending ownership change is clouding the future in Buffalo for Marrone and everyone else, however.
"I think Marrone has the skills, the tools, the communicative ways to get to players," this ex-GM said. "He is an up-and-coming coach. I like Doug. Of course, you can be good and be out of a job depending on where you are working. It's just not fair. We have all been there."
29. Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins (3.63 average)
Some credited Philbin for his handling of the Dolphins during the Richie Incognito imbroglio, but it was also tough not to hold Philbin accountable for allowing such a debacle to unfold on his watch. "I think he is going to have a hard time, but I like him," a GM said. "I think Philbin is a 1 in schematics and understanding and I like his personality. You like certain things about certain people. I think he is a real guy. I do not know that he necessarily commands real respect, and he is not a feared guy. He has not had enough success to be revered. He has to have success in order for his football to come through. He is almost the exact opposite of Tomlin."
A coordinator called Philbin a 1 as a man and harder to evaluate as a coach. "Damn, that is a tough one," a different GM said. "If they didn't have so much drama over there ... there is no reason in hell that team shouldn't have been in the playoffs."
30. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys (3.67 average)
It was tough for voters to give Garrett a high grade based on on-field results, but there was also a pervasive feeling that any coach would struggle to succeed in Dallas given owner Jerry Jones' leadership style and decision-making. Multiple voters thought Jones was the one responsible for the disastrous change from Rob Ryan to Monte Kiffin at defensive coordinator, for example. "Tough place, tough everything," said a longtime executive with a background in multiple organizations. "Garrett is a smart guy, but he doesn't reach everybody."
A current GM gave Garrett a 3. "His circumstances are way more difficult than people realize," this GM said. "Some people think they have underachieved. I think they may have overachieved under the circumstances. They have been very good offensively."
A former GM said he could envision Garrett getting fired, landing somewhere as a coordinator and then succeeding as a head coach for a different organization down the line. "He could emerge as a really good head coach who has been tested by fire," this former GM said.
31. Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns (3.70 average)
The Browns were in turmoil before their hired Pettine, and now they have a high-profile rookie quarterback to manage in Johnny Manziel. Most voters gave Pettine a 4 by default, having never seen him coach a game. Pettine's background with Ryan's Jets and John Harbaugh's Ravens intrigued some.
"I gave him a 3 based on his lineage," a former GM said. "He has authority and when he talks, people listen to him. Is he good enough? I don't know, but at least they are listening."
32. Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders (4.07 average)
Would Vince Lombardi win with these Raiders?
Hue Jackson did go 8-8 not too long ago, but if Allen is in over his head, it's only fair to acknowledge the deep and treacherous nature of the waters in Oakland.
"If you gave him the Colts, he might have been good, too," one executive said. "It is completely unfair to measure him. He has potential. He could be a guy who reemerges 7-8 years from now and becomes pretty good. Objectively, he is a 4. But no other new coach would do better there."
[h=4]Complete Head Coach Tiers Ballot[/h]Here is every coach's rank, average score and number of votes in each of the five tiers.
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
There is no way to accurately rank the 32 NFL head coaches, but polling 30 league insiders is a pretty good place to start.
Much like the "QB Tiers" project published earlier in the offseason, I asked what I consider a balanced range of informed voters -- eight current general managers, four former GMs, four personnel directors, four executives, six coordinators and four position coaches -- to provide a 1-5 rating for every head coach. Bill Belichick led the way with 28 votes in the first tier, followed by Pete Carroll (23) and Sean Payton (22). No one else commanded more than a dozen top-tier votes, drawing a clear line after these three coaches in the eyes of the 30 insiders. But another half-dozen coaches were not too far behind, and there were surprises along the way.
Once votes were collected, I averaged the ratings for each coach to produce a 1-32 order. I separated them into tiers at logical cut-off points, based on the voting results (including the tier in which each coach got the majority of his votes, and his average overall score). The general feeling was that NFL coaches tend to be very smart and very good at what they do. We saw that in the ratings. Twenty-three coaches averaged better than a 3.0 on the 1-5 scale (1 was best, 5 worst), and no coaches landed in Tier 5.
Where did every coach rank, and why? We've got the answers below, including some illuminating quotes from the voters on each guy.
[h=3]Tier 1[/h]
1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots (1.07 average)
Three championships and 11 consecutive seasons with double-digit victories set Belichick apart, as does an 11-5 record when Tom Brady was injured in 2008.
"The most important thing to me is the ability to control the offense, the defense and the special teams," a GM said in describing the ideal coach. "You can change and you can coach multiple things and you have the ability to teach almost every position group. Then you can lose any coach you want and replace from within because the head coach is the talent. Belichick is the ultimate model of that."
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Belichick commanded a 1 vote on 28 of 30 ballots. What would lead to someone giving Belichick a 2 grade in such a survey? One coordinator questioned whether Belichick would be so widely lauded if the Patriots had not "lucked into" an all-time great quarterback when selecting Brady in the sixth round. Then again, how many coaches win big consistently without a good QB? Belichick has repeatedly reconfigured the team around Brady and won with different profiles on both sides of the ball.
The other 2 vote for Belichick came from an assistant coach who pointed to Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels and the other Belichick assistants who failed as head coaches elsewhere. This coach thought a Tier 1 head coach should develop assistants, not just players. "The guys that [Belichick] trains, when they leave, they try to be like him rather than themselves," this assistant said, adding that he thought there was great power in allowing assistants to be themselves.
These criticisms might be fair, but they were insufficient to remove Belichick from the top tier, as he still finished No. 1 in the league. "A lot of guys that coach, it's all about them," a GM said. "It's about their scheme. It's about what they do. That is not it. Bill Belichick is as astute of a person as you would want, but he is a maniacal guy when it comes to preparing his team. They get together and they meet about the team. The offense should know how the defense is played, the defense should know how the offense is played, and it is that notion that builds greatness."
2. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks (1.23 average)
Carroll's sky-high ranking was one of the revelations of this project. I figured Carroll would be on the rise following the Seahawks' Super Bowl championship, but second in the NFL to Belichick already?
"With Pete, the way they manage the game and manage their personnel is probably better than anybody," one GM said.
It has been a total transformation, with Carroll and GM John Schneider working well together to stock the roster with young players the staff has developed consistently. Consider: In the three years before Carroll's arrival, Seattle lost 19 games by more than seven points. Their current 45-game streak without such a defeat dates to Week 9 of the 2011 season and is the longest in the league. Belichick's Patriots are second with just two such defeats over the same span.
One former GM who listed Carroll as a 2 said he did not think Carroll was quite innovative enough from a scheme standpoint to rank near the very top. However, another voter said he had read Carroll's book multiple times, trying to glean whatever he could.
"He relates great to players, is a great motivator, good manager, can put together a good staff; he is connected with all that and you have to give that guy a lot of credit personally for their defensive scheme and how they play it," a former GM said. "The other thing Pete does a good job of is, even when there is controversy, he goes with the flow and doesn't come down too hard. He coaches people loose instead of being uptight. Players can perform and react very well. He does not have to jump in. And he is not afraid to play young guys, which is another really good thing."
The three coaches atop this ranking have all won Super Bowls, but none has won one quite the way Carroll did this past season: 43-8 over a record-setting Denver team. "When you say his name, the first thing you think of is the absolute a-- whipping he issued to John Fox in the Super Bowl," one executive said. "If it had been a tight game and the ball bounced one way at the end, he lucked out. But the absolute dominant fashion they won that game in, people are going, 'Holy crap.' No disrespect to Joe Flacco, but he did not beat Flacco. He beat Peyton Manning, and he beat him soundly."
3. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints (1.30 average)
No coach in the league commanded as much respect as Payton did for his abilities as an offensive innovator. "I love his offensive mind -- fabulous," one executive said. A former GM gave Payton the nod over Carroll for that reason. "When I think of innovation, I think of Payton and what they do offensively to spread you out and [embarrass] you," this former GM said.
A former Saints assistant said Payton does a great job creating a culture of positive thinking, but not all outsiders see him in a favorable light. Payton was tied with Carroll in the second spot until one of the final people I polled gave him only a 3 -- the lone 3 Payton received from anyone. This front-office person and one other person I polled thought some of Payton's antics -- for example, playing drums for Jimmy Buffett while the singer wore a "Free Sean Payton" shirt during Payton's year-long suspension -- reflected a tendency for Payton to make things about himself too much. "What I get uncomfortable with him is, you see a lot of ego to the point that it can get in the way," this executive said. "He will switch defensive coordinators every year [three times since 2008] and it gets in the way of maximizing a great quarterback in his prime."
A coach who worked with Payton dismissed those concerns. "I can understand where someone would think that about Sean, but there is a reason he made it about him," this coach said. "The reason he makes it about him is he is a Bill Parcells disciple. He makes it about him so for the players, it's all about team. They don't want any 'stars' on the team. Everything is about team. Belichick is much the same way. Sean can come off as cocky and rub someone the wrong way, but he is very enthusiastic. I love him to death."
[h=3]Tier 2[/h]
4. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs (1.67 average)
Reid is the only coach among the top seven without a Super Bowl title, a testament to his consistency over an extended period. "When you talk about Andy Reid being to five NFC title games or Belichick with three Super Bowls, that is what I see as a 1 -- a Hall of Fame-type coach," a former GM said. "It's the amount of wins, staying in the same spot and then going to a new place and going to the playoffs from the get-go with a journeyman quarterback. He just has a [presence] about him, the chemistry of winning."
A defensive coordinator put it this way: "To me, a 1 is a guy who consistently wins regardless of what he has, and when you look at what Andy did in Philadelphia, I know he did not win a Super Bowl, but consistently winning the division for so many years, that is hard to do. It is the same with Belichick, but Donovan McNabb ain't Tom Brady."
Reid also has a proven offensive system. However, one personnel evaluator said there were additional challenges associated with stocking a roster for Reid. "I have watched how that system operates and there is not a lot of flexibility," the evaluator said. "It makes it hard when you do not have exactly what the system needs from a personnel standpoint. It is easy to miscommunicate and misidentify talent or not adjust to the talent you have in the short term. It is hard to sustain and compete in the postseason."
5. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants (1.73 average)
Having two Super Bowl titles in the bank bought some insurance for Coughlin coming off a 7-9 season featuring an 0-6 start. There was some thinking that Coughlin, the NFL's oldest coach (he'll turn 68 on Sunday), had slipped from a 1 to a 2 in recent years, but that is difficult to know from afar. Coughlin drew high marks for taking Jacksonville to the AFC title game, then adjusting his old-school approach to help the Giants win two Super Bowls, one of them against an 18-0 New England team.
"He is every bit as solid as Belichick," said a former GM who placed Coughlin in the top tier. "He has done it over time and been very consistent. You can say he is old-school, but I think he appeals to young guys. He is very sound. Nothing falls through the cracks. These guys at the top, if I were with them, I would spend not a single minute worried about whether we were coached right or had everything covered."
T-6. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers (1.77 average)
Like Payton, McCarthy gets high marks for his offensive acumen and overall leadership. The Packers have won with varying run/pass emphasis and they continue to evolve as their personnel changes. But the Packers' defensive performance has declined in recent seasons, leading voters to cite the same reasoning over and over when asked why McCarthy wasn't a 1 in their eyes.
"I like him as a head coach and would love to work for him," one veteran assistant coach said. "I think Mike is a great offensive coordinator who has done some pretty good things as a head coach, but defensively and on special teams, they have never done well enough up there. There is something missing in the program."
A former GM said he thought McCarthy needed to "fix the staff defensively" while noting that the head coach must coach the coaches, not just the players. McCarthy did get 11 votes in the first tier, however. One of those votes came from an executive who blamed some of the defensive issues on personnel, noting that McCarthy had in fact made sweeping staff changes back in 2009.
A GM placing McCarthy in the top tier focused on offensive flexibility. "You look at him as an offensive playcaller and he was grinding the s--- out of the ball when he was in New Orleans, and then he changed things up," the GM said. "He developed a passing game in Green Bay, and he is just the same guy all the time -- strong leader."
T-6. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.77 average)
The Steelers haven't been as good lately, and Tomlin will never be seen as a schematic guru while Dick LeBeau runs the defense, but he is held in extremely high regard for the way he has gone about the job under some tricky circumstances. "Loyalty in that organization is probably one of their greatest strengths, if not in all of football," a former head coach said. "He took a really nice team and took it to another level, and as the team aged on him and they really didn't replenish, he hasn't blinked. He has hung in there and I think they are going to be very good again. I think he has developed the young guys quickly and I think he has stood his ground on, 'Here is what the organization believes -- loyalty, loyalty, loyalty,' and I think he has done a great job of adopting that."
A former Steelers assistant said Tomlin, who came up in the Tampa 2 defensive system, showed "amazing self-control" by never once pushing his own defensive agenda onto LeBeau, a holdover from Bill Cowher's staff. The Steelers also reportedly forced Tomlin to replace offensive coordinator Bruce Arians with Todd Haley. "For me, a definite 1 is Mike Tomlin," an offensive assistant coach said. "He has [the team's] attention, he can speak every language in the locker room, he is extremely accountable, he understands tradition at the place he is at -- he is one with his building. He has enthusiasm and energy that bleeds into everyone in the organization. They hired a coordinator he did not put his stamp on; but Haley is a good football coach, so Tomlin rolls with it. New offensive line coach, he rolls with it. He just keeps rolling."
A former GM credited Tomlin for "somehow keeping it all together" through tumultuous times. "They were 2-6 last year and finished 8-8 -- that is what a good coach does," this ex-GM said. An executive credited Tomlin and some of the other higher-ranked coaches for raising expectations to the point that "the sky is falling" if their teams have a .500 season.
8. Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers (1.80 average)
The 49ers instantly went from colossal underachievers to championship contenders when Harbaugh arrived from Stanford, where he had built that program into a power. No NFL coach has more total victories than Harbaugh since his arrival with the 49ers in 2011. He and Belichick are each 41-14 over that span, with no other team posting more than 37 victories. "Win a Super Bowl and he is a 1 to me," one executive said.
Some noted that Harbaugh inherited a deep and talented roster, and that his hard-charging personality wears on people. One GM said he downgraded Harbaugh from a 1 to a 2 over tension between Harbaugh and the front office. Another executive said a 1 should have no real flaws, and that Harbaugh's combustible temperament qualifies as a flaw. Another GM said, "the personality stuff is going to show up" in a negative way at some point in the future.
"I think the jury is out on Jim still, I really do," a former GM said. "A lot of people think he is a genius. I'd rather have the other brother. I think Jim could get [out-schemed] any day and give you that look afterward like, 'We never saw that [coming].'"
For what it's worth, others have lauded Harbaugh and his staff for their creative use of personnel and formations, and for the nuance within their running game -- and even the former GM quoted above said that he would be OK with having Harbaugh as his head coach.
A former player working as a personnel evaluator downplayed some of the other concerns. "That gets a little old, the animation on the sideline and those things," he said, "but at the end of the day, he is a good coach. He understands what he is doing. He has won everywhere he has been. I think his guys play for him. You may not like the person, but you like the product. As a player and a coach, you separate that from the other stuff. You are not necessarily best friends with everyone you work with, but if I believe in what you are saying, OK, I can roll with you. That is what I see with him."
9. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens (1.87 average)
The Ravens rank second to the Patriots in total victories with 71 since 2008, the year Harbaugh succeeded Brian Billick as head coach. They've won a Super Bowl without a great quarterback, although Flacco certainly played great during that memorable postseason run in 2013. John Harbaugh has a 71-38 record (.651) that lines up closely with the .657 career mark for Belichick.
"I think he is creative, he motivates, his people are good when they leave, I think he does it right and I just love what I see," an offensive assistant coach said. This coach gave John a 1 and Jim a 2 for this project. "The reason I gave Jimmy a 2 is they both have great fire, but Jimmy's emotions sometimes get in his way, where John's do not," this coach said. "When you are saying 1s to me, there is some critical factor that they are able to overcome."
A former GM put it this way: "The 2s have all been 1s, but they do not stay there. The 1s stay there. Every one of those 2s have their 1 moments, but there is a bigger wave, not a straight line across. At the high point, they hit it. Most of them have a hole that pulls them down once in a while."
Troubles on offense have held back the Ravens at times. "I think they might have the best organization in the NFL, or close to it," one executive said. "I do not know if John Harbaugh would have the same success elsewhere. I would give him a very high 2."
10. John Fox, Denver Broncos (1.97 average)
Fox gets high marks for taking two teams to Super Bowls, with and without a great quarterback. He received more 2 votes than anyone, and there wasn't much discussion. "He was up and down in Carolina and had no chance at the end," one executive said. "You gotta give him credit for getting to the playoffs with Tim Tebow in Denver."
One assistant coach challenged the notion that winning big is automatic with Peyton Manning behind center. "If it's all about Peyton, what happened in the Super Bowl?" this coach asked. "There is a whole lot of coaching going on to score 600-plus points with 55 touchdown passes and break records not by one yard and one TD, but by hundreds of yards and five TDs."
It would be interesting to know where Fox would rank relative to Carroll if the Broncos had blown out the Seahawks in the Super Bowl instead of the reverse unfolding. Multiple voters said they could not give a coach a 1 without a Super Bowl victory.
11. Jeff Fisher, St. Louis Rams (2.10 average)
Fisher came excruciatingly close to winning a Super Bowl with Tennessee despite a challenging ownership situation. The Rams have won 45.3 percent of their games in two seasons under Fisher after winning 18.8 percent over their previous five seasons. They've done it despite playing nine of 32 games with a backup QB.
"He has a personality where his players like playing for him. He motivates guys in different ways," a personnel director said. "He handles his coaches fairly well and delegates pretty well. It'll be interesting how he and Gregg Williams mesh this time. They meshed well in the past. Fisher brings a lot to the table as a knowledgeable head coach."
A former GM lauded Fisher as an outstanding in-game manager. "You know what you're getting with Fisher and the message stays the same," a personnel evaluator said. "He's got an identity for his teams. Whether it is Gregg Williams' or his, you know they are going to be coached up and play their a--es off."
Fisher enjoys a high league profile as co-chairman of the NFL's competition committee, but that seemed to work against him with some of the voters. There was a feeling that a gap exists between how Fisher is perceived by the media and his .532 career winning percentage (.455 playoffs). "I think he was a great coach until he got into being the head of the competition committee, being the half-GM in St. Louis and that stuff," a former GM said. "I don't think any of that has been good for him. He was at his best when he was with Floyd Reese [with the Titans] and he just coached."
A coordinator put it this way: "Fisher has been a head coach a long time and won games, and there has been more positive than negative, but they treat him like he has 10 Super Bowls."
Last season, the Rams ranked 20th in Total QBR allowed and 24th in passer rating allowed despite ranking second to Carolina in sack rate. "The defense, that is Fisher's strong suit, and it hasn't really taken the next step," a personnel evaluator said. "I feel like if you're an offensive guy or a defensive guy, that should be the No. 1 thing on your team that they are really talking about."
12. Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles (2.20 average)
There were a couple of schools of thought on Kelly. Some were sufficiently excited about him to anoint him as a 1 after a single successful season in the NFL. Others of a similar mind thought he was a 2 trending toward the top tier. Nine voters placed Kelly in that third category, taking a wait-and-see approach. One noted that the Eagles struggled for a stretch last season before taking advantage of an unusually weak NFC East.
"Kelly is the fascinating guy to me, because with a lot of these young [coaches] I'm not sure, but Chip has a chance to be really special," a former GM said while putting Kelly in the second tier with the arrow pointing up. "He is going to do it differently. Even the DeSean Jackson thing, he was not afraid to get rid of him. He thinks his system can overcome everything and sometimes those guys know. He interests me greatly."
A defensive coordinator lauded Kelly for doing an outstanding job with players. The coordinator also suggested time would tell whether Kelly's offense would have staying power. "I think he is a 1," a GM said. "I just think he doesn't give a s--- what other people think, and he has his beliefs, he is outside the box and he is true to himself."
13. Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals (2.33 average)
Arians is already polling closer to a 2 than a 3 after just one full season as an NFL head coach. He was one of 13 head coaches to receive multiple Tier 1 votes. He's getting credit for how he handled the situation in Indianapolis when cancer sidelined Chuck Pagano. He's getting credit for taking Arizona to a 10-6 record after the Cardinals had gone 5-11 the previous season. Winning in Seattle one season after the Cardinals lost there by a 58-0 count works in his favor.
"He is great with quarterbacks, has a very good offensive mind and a strong personality," one GM said. "Look at what he did in Indy and what he has done in Arizona. Great hire."
Multiple voters said they thought players responded to Arians and played for him. They thought Arians possessed toughness and extreme confidence in what he is doing offensively. "Very innovative and has a presence about him," an offensive coordinator said. "He has a way about himself."
Said a personnel evaluator: "I like Arians' approach to guys. He is himself. That is huge. He comes off a little quirky but does not go overboard the way Rex Ryan does."
A couple of voters thought the 2014 season would be revealing. One thought the 2013 schedule fell right for Arizona as several of the Cardinals' opponents seemed to be in disarray.
14. Lovie Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.43 average)
Smith's Chicago teams ranked better than 14th in scoring just once, and when they did, the Bears reached the Super Bowl. His teams ranked among the top four in points allowed four times. The Bears under Smith posted five winning records, one .500 mark and three losing records without ever gaining the necessary consistency on offense. They were 3-3 in the playoffs.
"He never panics, never says it's do-or-die if he loses two games," a former GM said. "Every day, he is the same guy. People get used to that. He's won a lot of games."
15. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals (2.47 average)
Lewis would have fared better in polling if his teams had not gone 0-5 in the postseason. Voters generally gave him high marks for the positive change he has made within an organization that was for years viewed among the very worst in professional sports. "Sometimes you give people extra credit for where they coach and that whole Cincy place has been a tough place to win," a GM said. "They used to make the coaches do the scouting work. They ask a lot of their coaches. They are a talented team and he is part of that. He is almost a 2 to me, but 90-85 with an 0-5 playoff record is a 3 to me."
A former GM who did not participate in this survey said he found it "shocking" that Lewis did not poll higher. A coordinator had this to say: "Marvin took over a franchise that is troubled and, no, they have not won a playoff game, but look at the Cleveland Browns today. If you asked every person in that organization or who comes to the stadium if they would take a winning season but lose in the playoffs, they would take it."
[h=3]Tier 3[/h]
16. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts (2.60 average)
Pagano has had just one full season as a head coach after missing much of 2012 during his cancer fight. One voter felt good enough about what he has seen to place Pagano in the top tier. (This voter tied one other voter with nine first-tier votes. The average was 5.1 and the low was two.)
"One of the things I thought about is getting your players to play for you," this voter said. "Even though Bruce Arians was running the show [in 2012], I think his players played for [Pagano]. It was a little personal and emotional, but I felt that was a group of players doing whatever they had to do to play for him. This past year, when Bruce was gone, they wound up winning in the playoffs without having an overly talented team. They played their butts off for their coach more than anyone else. He did a great job of motivating them."
Another line of thinking says the Colts lucked into a franchise quarterback and are benefiting from playing within a weak AFC South featuring zero other franchise QBs. That said, the Colts defeated San Francisco, Seattle, Denver and Kansas City last season. "I think he is a good coach, but some contributing factors make me want to see more against better competition," one executive said.
17. Rex Ryan, New York Jets (2.73 average)
I thought Ryan would poll higher than this after reaching two AFC title games without the benefit of a top-notch quarterback. With Mark Sanchez behind center, Ryan owns playoff victories over teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. His Jets went 8-8 last season with a rookie quarterback who ranked 34th in Total QBR. The five qualifying QBs with lower metrics combined to go 9-32. "To do what he does with the s--- he gets? He does a good job, now," one coordinator said.
There were only 14 votes in the 5 category and Ryan received one of them from a personnel evaluator who thought Ryan's bluster undermined his credibility. "You don't go to back-to-back AFC Championships and be a bad coach," another personnel evaluator said. "Where people probably hate on him is he is a bit of a blowhard, he says what he wants, he is not afraid to spout off to the camera and that rubs people the wrong way. People from a distance think he is all ego, but the players love him, from everything I hear."
One theory on Ryan says the Jets in the past have encouraged his bluster in an effort to become more relevant, but when the team lost, it became perceived as a negative. One Ryan supporter noted that he has kept the team competitive with a shaky QB even while the front office slashed payroll. "On that team, who are they paying?" this supporter said. "Eric Decker, Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and David Harris. That is literally it."
18. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons (2.77 average)
Smith was once lauded for turning around an organization that was in shambles following Bobby Petrino's messy tenure and departure. Now, he's criticized for failing to meet the expectations that he helped raise. There's a strong feeling the Falcons should have fared better in the playoffs than they have under Smith.
"He is an interesting one only because I like him and thought he was really good," one long-time evaluator said. "I'm not sure what happened there last year, but the mark of a good one is how they bounce back from that. Right now, you probably have to say 3 for him. That could go either way, and that is crazy because they have won a lot of games."
A former GM put it this way: "Everyone has injuries. They did not lose the quarterback." Last season hurt, in other words. "He's had some bad breaks in the playoffs but has a nice body of work," another former GM said. "In the building, he is organized, pulls the guys together, works well with personnel. He hits a lot of buttons."
19. Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.80 average)
Carroll's success in Seattle seemed to work in Bradley's favor as voters attempted to evaluate a coach with just one season on his resume. One GM put it this way: "I think he has done a nice job of bringing the Pete Carroll blueprint to life in an authentic way."
A former GM said he could tell from watching the Jaguars even during preseason that the players are energized, having fun and taking care of one another in a manner that puts team before the individual. "I love the guy and think he could be a star," another executive said. "But he went 4-12. Nobody would say he cannot turn it around, but no one has any idea what his coaching actually did. I would bet on him any day of the week, though."
T-20. Ken Whisenhunt, Tennessee Titans (2.83 average)
The coach associated with taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl (Whisenhunt) has lost ground recently to the one associated with Arizona's inability to win enough subsequently without Kurt Warner (also Whisenhunt). Having Arians follow up and instantly produce a 10-win season did not help perceptions. Whisenhunt's next couple of seasons in Tennessee will provide insiders with a clearer read.
"He is what I would look for in a head coach," one GM said. "He is an offensive guy, a guy that has had experience coaching a number of different positions." This GM still placed Whisenhunt in the third tier for now, saying, "When I have seen his teams, I have never been super impressed. Maybe he will prove to be better than that."
Another GM who paid close attention to the Cardinals during Whisenhunt's tenure with the team called him a "damn good coach" who stays true to his philosophy. A third GM said taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl should be enough to command respect, adding, "That is OK to say he hasn't won without Warner, because who wins without a good QB?"
The criticism this one voter had was representative of a lot of others directed at Whisenhunt: "The head coaches have to have a specialty, but as a head coach, I do not know that his genius comes out as much as it did when he was an offensive coordinator, whether in Pittsburgh or in San Diego. ... If they play lights-out above and beyond in Tennessee, I would gladly change my grade on him. I see him as damn good offensive coordinator."
T-20. Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers (2.83 average)
McCoy inherited a veteran quarterback and quickly determined the team could win with Philip Rivers, putting the Chargers in a different category from the typical team with a first-year coach. "The QB had a career year and that reflects on the head coach, who has a QB background," one evaluator said. "I just do not know. He was on our list for coordinator interviews at one time. I do not know if he has the charisma, but you have to like what you saw in his first year."
An assistant coach whose team faced the Chargers more than once in the years before McCoy's arrival said he was impressed with what McCoy was able to capture as a first-time head coach from a team with a strong veteran element, even as the front office took steps to make the team younger.
22. Marc Trestman, Chicago Bears (2.93 average)
The Bears went from 10-6 in Lovie Smith's final year to 8-8 under Trestman in 2013, but the offense undoubtedly made significant strides. That caught voters' attention. "He has a very skilled offensive mind and he comes across as very intelligent," one GM said. A former GM put it this way: "Unconventional hire. I think he is really solid in most every area. I would say he is a 3, but the arrow is up. He is like McCoy to me."
One big question is whether Trestman's obvious focus on the offense will come at the expense of the defense and special teams. Personnel-related issues in those areas could cloud the analysis in the short term. "Their defense was atrocious, but was that personnel or injuries?" an executive asked. "He is a 3, but I would be excited about having him."
23. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers (2.97 average)
Rivera seemed to be about out of time before the Panthers rallied from a 1-3 start to win eight in a row and 11 of their final 12 regular-season games. "Great job holding them together," a former GM said.
The Panthers changed GMs during Rivera's tenure and they have subsequently done some roster retooling with an eye toward extricating themselves from lingering salary-cap problems. Expectations for the Panthers around the league have fallen as a result, but as one GM put it, looks can be deceiving.
"Some moves are cap-related, but when you do things, you are not just hoping they work out," this GM said. "You have a reason. If they go through all they went through and they felt like losing Steve Smith makes them a better team and they let him walk and it works out, Rivera easily goes to a 2 for me. There is risk. You did not play it safe."
[h=3]Tier 4[/h]
24. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings (3.27 average)
Zimmer has never served as a head coach before, but he has been around long enough for people to have a general feel for him. Reviews were generally positive. "I like him and think he'll be OK," a former GM said. "I am not sure he will be dynamic enough to overcome the people around him [including ownership]. You can be a great coach, but if do not have players and the people in the building don't know what they are doing, you will struggle. That is not a great organizational setup from ownership on down, in my opinion."
This quote from a source was representative of a lot of voters' thoughts: "Zimmer is well-liked, respected, has great passion and people respond very well to him. It is hard to give a 2 to a guy who has not coached a game."
One thing to watch is whether Zimmer pays close enough attention to areas beyond the defense. Having an offensive coordinator as accomplished as Norv Turner should provide some insurance in that area.
25. Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins (3.40 average)
There's less to go on with Gruden than there is for Zimmer, although Gruden was a head coach in the Arena League, which counted for something with a few voters. One GM familiar with Gruden called him engaging and said he'll be able to gain trust and relate well to players. "As for all the organizational stuff, who knows?" this GM said. "There is no reason to believe he will not be good at it. He will not turn people off."
Gruden's predecessors in Washington have complained about organizational challenges. Gruden isn't walking into the easiest situation for a first-time NFL head coach, in other words. "I think Gruden will be a good coach," a former GM said. "He was damn good in Arena ball, won championships there. But how do you know? As a coordinator, he was pretty damn good, but they had some weapons."
26. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans (3.47 average)
Working under Belichick years ago wouldn't necessarily enhance a candidate's pedigree if we're relying upon how well previous New England assistants have fared on their own. In O'Brien's case, however, there is also a successful (if brief) track record at Penn State. "Based on college, I would put him equal with Bradley, a 3," one GM said as he provided ratings for coaches from the AFC South.
A longtime talent evaluator with no ties to New England liked O'Brien's chances. This evaluator listed Belichick and Coughlin as the only Tier One coaches on his ballot. "I like everything about O'Brien and everything I've heard about him, but he has not coached, so he goes to the top of my 4s," this evaluator said. "I would take him over some of the 3s. He has passion, he is a good communicator, he is very smart. I would probably take a chance. Four might be too low, but to be consistent, he has done as much as a Mike Pettine."
A former GM who listed Belichick and Reid as his only Tier One coaches also placed a bet on O'Brien while placing him in the 3s for now. "He will for sure be a 2," this former GM said, "because of his coordinator background, where he has been and the way he did it at Penn State through all the turmoil and adversity. He did it with a true freshman quarterback, too. That is pretty cool."
27. Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions (3.50 average)
When the Lions hired Caldwell, I reached out to his former boss (Bill Polian, now an analyst for ESPN) and one of his former backup quarterbacks (Brock Huard, also with ESPN) in Indianapolis. Both explained why they thought Caldwell would be good for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. Polian also said the mild-mannered Caldwell is vastly underrated as a leader.
Polian and Huard did not participate in this survey. The people who did participate gave Caldwell three 2s, 12 3s, 12 4s and even three 5s. Nearly all the question marks stemmed from the same concern -- Caldwell's mild-mannered temperament. "It's one thing to have the Tony Dungy personality," a GM said. "It is another thing to govern it from a passive perspective. The personality resonates at times, but sometimes it requires a different mantra."
One voter noted that Caldwell benefited from a future Hall of Fame quarterback (Peyton Manning) and a six-time executive of the year (Polian), and then couldn't stop a freefall to 2-14 when Manning was injured. Some of the people who gave Caldwell middling marks liked him, though. "He is a true head coach," another GM said. "He has a heartbeat on his team and what they need at the moment. He is also probably an underrated X-and-O coordinator considering the run he had with the Ravens. In this thing, he deserves to be a 3 for now."
28. Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills (3.53 average)
Marrone had an injured rookie quarterback for his lone season as a head coach. There is very little track record to evaluate. Many voters placed Marrone and other unproven coaches in the 4s by default, not because they necessarily saw specific flaws. One former GM gave Marrone a 3 and placed him ahead of the Jets' Ryan in his pecking order. A pending ownership change is clouding the future in Buffalo for Marrone and everyone else, however.
"I think Marrone has the skills, the tools, the communicative ways to get to players," this ex-GM said. "He is an up-and-coming coach. I like Doug. Of course, you can be good and be out of a job depending on where you are working. It's just not fair. We have all been there."
29. Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins (3.63 average)
Some credited Philbin for his handling of the Dolphins during the Richie Incognito imbroglio, but it was also tough not to hold Philbin accountable for allowing such a debacle to unfold on his watch. "I think he is going to have a hard time, but I like him," a GM said. "I think Philbin is a 1 in schematics and understanding and I like his personality. You like certain things about certain people. I think he is a real guy. I do not know that he necessarily commands real respect, and he is not a feared guy. He has not had enough success to be revered. He has to have success in order for his football to come through. He is almost the exact opposite of Tomlin."
A coordinator called Philbin a 1 as a man and harder to evaluate as a coach. "Damn, that is a tough one," a different GM said. "If they didn't have so much drama over there ... there is no reason in hell that team shouldn't have been in the playoffs."
30. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys (3.67 average)
It was tough for voters to give Garrett a high grade based on on-field results, but there was also a pervasive feeling that any coach would struggle to succeed in Dallas given owner Jerry Jones' leadership style and decision-making. Multiple voters thought Jones was the one responsible for the disastrous change from Rob Ryan to Monte Kiffin at defensive coordinator, for example. "Tough place, tough everything," said a longtime executive with a background in multiple organizations. "Garrett is a smart guy, but he doesn't reach everybody."
A current GM gave Garrett a 3. "His circumstances are way more difficult than people realize," this GM said. "Some people think they have underachieved. I think they may have overachieved under the circumstances. They have been very good offensively."
A former GM said he could envision Garrett getting fired, landing somewhere as a coordinator and then succeeding as a head coach for a different organization down the line. "He could emerge as a really good head coach who has been tested by fire," this former GM said.
31. Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns (3.70 average)
The Browns were in turmoil before their hired Pettine, and now they have a high-profile rookie quarterback to manage in Johnny Manziel. Most voters gave Pettine a 4 by default, having never seen him coach a game. Pettine's background with Ryan's Jets and John Harbaugh's Ravens intrigued some.
"I gave him a 3 based on his lineage," a former GM said. "He has authority and when he talks, people listen to him. Is he good enough? I don't know, but at least they are listening."
32. Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders (4.07 average)
Would Vince Lombardi win with these Raiders?
Hue Jackson did go 8-8 not too long ago, but if Allen is in over his head, it's only fair to acknowledge the deep and treacherous nature of the waters in Oakland.
"If you gave him the Colts, he might have been good, too," one executive said. "It is completely unfair to measure him. He has potential. He could be a guy who reemerges 7-8 years from now and becomes pretty good. Objectively, he is a 4. But no other new coach would do better there."
[h=4]Complete Head Coach Tiers Ballot[/h]Here is every coach's rank, average score and number of votes in each of the five tiers.
| Rank | Coach | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Belichick | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.07 |
| 2 | Pete Carroll | 23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.23 |
| 3 | Sean Payton | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.30 |
| 4 | Andy Reid | 12 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.67 |
| 5 | Tom Coughlin | 10 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.73 |
| 6 | Mike McCarthy | 11 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.77 |
| 6 | Mike Tomlin | 9 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.77 |
| 8 | Jim Harbaugh | 9 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 |
| 9 | John Harbaugh | 7 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.87 |
| 10 | John Fox | 4 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.97 |
| 11 | Jeff Fisher | 6 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2.10 |
| 12 | Chip Kelly | 5 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2.20 |
| 13 | Bruce Arians | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2.33 |
| 14 | Lovie Smith | 1 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2.43 |
| 15 | Marvin Lewis | 1 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2.47 |
| 16 | Chuck Pagano | 1 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2.60 |
| 17 | Rex Ryan | 0 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2.73 |
| 18 | Mike Smith | 0 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2.77 |
| 19 | Gus Bradley | 0 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2.80 |
| 20 | Ken Whisenhunt | 0 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2.83 |
| 20 | Mike McCoy | 0 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2.83 |
| 22 | Marc Trestman | 0 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2.93 |
| 23 | Ron Rivera | 0 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2.97 |
| 24 | Mike Zimmer | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 3.27 |
| 25 | Jay Gruden | 0 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 3.40 |
| 26 | Bill O'Brien | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 3.47 |
| 27 | Jim Caldwell | 0 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 3.50 |
| 28 | Doug Marrone | 0 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 3.53 |
| 29 | Joe Philbin | 0 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 3.63 |
| 30 | Jason Garrett | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 3.67 |
| 31 | Mike Pettine | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 3.70 |
| 32 | Dennis Allen | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 4.07 |
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