Randy Johnson -355 tommorow!!!!!!!!. LOL

[Holysmoke+]

Dubpoet is on em.

Yankees -345 (2 Big Units) 5 Dimes

 

[JohnnyFairPlay]

Not to mention your math sucks News. If I lay 200 on a parlay on the Yanks at -360 and White Sox at -220 and the White Sox win, I now have 284.00 riding on the Yankees to win 172.00, but I didn't have to risk almost 580.00. I only had to risk 200.00 which is more appealing to me.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I thinks its perfectly ok to parley 2 heavy favorites as long as there is value in the line. Just because a team is -300 does not mean there is no value. Im just saying there is absolutly no value in the Yanks -365 today.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper]

Hey guru...I realize exactly what I'm doing. I guess you've never made a bet period, 'cause "the books keep getting richer and richer" as a matter of rule just because the odds are NEVER in your favor. I just was sayinig that I would parlay the damn bet if I was playing NYY...which I am. I don't need a damn clinic in gambling ass hole.

You can only lead the horse to water....

Sorry if you took it personally. My math was ridiculously wrong as I was very tired last night, but my logic was not. If you dont understand what I am saying, I am very sorry. You are still risking -360 on the yanks, you are just not risking $360.00. You are risking $200 and if the white sox win, you are now risking $290.90 to win $80.80. Exactly the same thing as risking $360 to win $100 at just a smaller unit size.

If you really believe -360 is ridiculous as you stated, it is still ridiculous in a parlay at the same rate.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper]

Hey guru...I realize exactly what I'm doing. I guess you've never made a bet period, 'cause "the books keep getting richer and richer" as a matter of rule just because the odds are NEVER in your favor. I just was sayinig that I would parlay the damn bet if I was playing NYY...which I am. I don't need a damn clinic in gambling ass hole.

The books keep getting richer and richer from fools that parlay and bet -360 favorites. I can assure you that the books are not getting rich off of me. And you are wrong, the odds can be in your favor if you know what you are doing.

Good luck to you

 

[CHOPTALK]

You can only lead the horse to water....

Sorry if you took it personally. My math was ridiculously wrong as I was very tired last night, but my logic was not. If you dont understand what I am saying, I am very sorry. You are still risking -360 on the yanks, you are just not risking $360.00. You are risking $200 and if the white sox win, you are now risking $290.90 to win $80.80. Exactly the same thing as risking $360 to win $100 at just a smaller unit size.

If you really believe -360 is ridiculous as you stated, it is still ridiculous in a parlay at the same rate.

TN. I am a daily reader of your thread and respect your opionion. I just dont think you understand what im trying to say. I agree with you 100% that you are still paying the juice even in a parley. What I am saying is it does not matter if you are paying the juice in a heavy fav as long as there is value in a line. Just because a team is -300 does not mean there is not value in the line.
Tonights game is a poor example because tonights Yankee line is a joke in my opionion. I would never dream of adding the Yanks tonight in a parley. As a matter of fact im taking Tampa strait expecting to lose the bet but im happy with myself knowing im on the value side. If I stay on the value side all season I will have a great year. I already won on Tampa last night so this is all house money anyway.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper]

Chop, I agree completely with what you are saying. For there to be value in a -360 favorite they would have to win this game 78% of the time just to break even. For value they would have to win at a 88% clip (I look for a 10% edge) and I dont believe there is a team in baseball that can win any matchup at 90%.

That said there are times when a big favorite can have value. You just have to pick your spots and do your homework. I find these values every week and just usually pass anyway. That is just my style. I was only refering to the guy that said "no way would I lay that kind of juice, and then said he was parlaying the play that he would never make. That does not make any sense.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Chop, I agree completely with what you are saying. For there to be value in a -360 favorite they would have to win this game 78% of the time just to break even. For value they would have to win at a 88% clip (I look for a 10% edge) and I dont believe there is a team in baseball that can win any matchup at 90%.

That said there are times when a big favorite can have value. You just have to pick your spots and do your homework. I find these values every week and just usually pass anyway. That is just my style. I was only refering to the guy that said "no way would I lay that kind of juice, and then said he was parlaying the play that he would never make. That does not make any sense.

I figured you agreed with me. I just was not sure if you understood what I was saying. Im glad we are on the same page.

 

[moseyesly]

You guys are putting down anyone betting the Yanks in this spot. I predict they will win as Johnson has found his groove. A parlay with the Bos.-Clev. Under looks like a winner from here.

 

[CHOPTALK]

You guys are putting down anyone betting the Yanks in this spot. I predict they will win as Johnson has found his groove. A parlay with the Bos.-Clev. Under looks like a winner from here.

You are probably right Mos. The Yankees will probably win the game tonight. But they would never win 78 out of 100 in this situation. So you are on the non value side. You may not get burned tonight, but over the corse of the season you will get burned. I took Tampa tonight +330 expecting to lose the bet. I agree the Yankees have better than a 50% chance of winning tonight. But they dont have a 78% chance of winning.

 

[SqueezePlay]

My view is that by opening this bad boy at -360, the oddsmaker knows NYY should win. They are just trying to lure money on the D-Rays and discourage plays on the likely winner. The public has been apesh*t in love with RJ for years.

 

[CHOPTALK]

My view is that by opening this bad boy at -360, the oddsmaker knows NYY should win. They are just trying to lure money on the D-Rays and discourage plays on the likely winner. The public has been apesh*t in love with RJ for years.

If the books did that on a regular bases they would get killed in the long run. You cant overvalue a dog and make a profit in the long run.

 

[SqueezePlay]

If the books did that on a regular bases they would get killed in the long run. You cant overvalue a dog and make a profit in the long run.

That's true. My point is that there are players that take RJ regardless of the line. I see his line as inflated virtually every time out. You could have cleaned up fading Johnson last year in Arizona as he was a heavy favorite most games and lost a bunch.

 

[CHOPTALK]

That's true. My point is that there are players that take RJ regardless of the line. I see his line as inflated virtually every time out. You could have cleaned up fading Johnson last year in Arizona as he was a heavy favorite most games and lost a bunch.

Ive cleaned up this year on Johnson. I am convenced that Johnson could be -500 and some would still take the Yanks. Winning baseball is not about picking winners, its about being on the side of value.

 

[mrpotter1]

Just placed a small wager on TB -1 1/2 runs +526. Just felt like I had to fade the public on this one!!

 

[CHOPTALK]

Just placed a small wager on TB -1 1/2 runs +526. Just felt like I had to fade the public on this one!!

Thats a very smart play Potter. Win or lose.

 

[GoHogsAR]

Back-to-back HR by TB.

3-0 in the 2nd!

 

[sherman]

i hope all who have TB tickets cash tonight!

 

[jasin4000]

Yanks are a JOKE



:lolBIG:

 

[NoLimits]

Lol @ Ny Yankee Bettors!!!!!!!!!!