JohnnyFairPlay said:
You can only lead the horse to water....
Sorry if you took it personally. My math was ridiculously wrong as I was very tired last night, but my logic was not. If you dont understand what I am saying, I am very sorry. You are still risking -360 on the yanks, you are just not risking $360.00. You are risking $200 and if the white sox win, you are now risking $290.90 to win $80.80. Exactly the same thing as risking $360 to win $100 at just a smaller unit size.
If you really believe -360 is ridiculous as you stated, it is still ridiculous in a parlay at the same rate.
Tomorrow's Newspaper said:
TN. I am a daily reader of your thread and respect your opionion. I just dont think you understand what im trying to say. I agree with you 100% that you are still paying the juice even in a parley. What I am saying is it does not matter if you are paying the juice in a heavy fav as long as there is value in a line. Just because a team is -300 does not mean there is not value in the line.
Tonights game is a poor example because tonights Yankee line is a joke in my opionion. I would never dream of adding the Yanks tonight in a parley. As a matter of fact im taking Tampa strait expecting to lose the bet but im happy with myself knowing im on the value side. If I stay on the value side all season I will have a great year. I already won on Tampa last night so this is all house money anyway.
Chop, I agree completely with what you are saying. For there to be value in a -360 favorite they would have to win this game 78% of the time just to break even. For value they would have to win at a 88% clip (I look for a 10% edge) and I dont believe there is a team in baseball that can win any matchup at 90%.
That said there are times when a big favorite can have value. You just have to pick your spots and do your homework. I find these values every week and just usually pass anyway. That is just my style. I was only refering to the guy that said "no way would I lay that kind of juice, and then said he was parlaying the play that he would never make. That does not make any sense.
That said there are times when a big favorite can have value. You just have to pick your spots and do your homework. I find these values every week and just usually pass anyway. That is just my style. I was only refering to the guy that said "no way would I lay that kind of juice, and then said he was parlaying the play that he would never make. That does not make any sense.
mos eyesly said:
You are probably right Mos. The Yankees will probably win the game tonight. But they would never win 78 out of 100 in this situation. So you are on the non value side. You may not get burned tonight, but over the corse of the season you will get burned. I took Tampa tonight +330 expecting to lose the bet. I agree the Yankees have better than a 50% chance of winning tonight. But they dont have a 78% chance of winning.
